Since we are going to start formulating next year's monetary policy, we will inevitably have to go through a series of studies before we can formulate a policy, and we can't just pat ourselves on the head. Of course, this process is inseparable from www.biquge.info the investigation of economic data. The results of this economic data survey are not to be trusted, but they are also not to be fully trusted. Because any economic development strategy is inseparable from economic data surveys, but economic data surveys cannot be completely relied on, and they cannot simply look at the numbers. This is a multifaceted analysis, and it is not a single piece of data that can tell the story. It is necessary to integrate all aspects in order to truly understand the economic situation and the lives of the people, otherwise it will be the same as the grain price in the Tang Dynasty, obviously completely ignoring the serious deflation in the middle and late Tang Dynasty. It is also said that the Song Dynasty was wealthy, and it was also analyzed from the financial revenue. However, there are many sources of fiscal revenue, and this does not absolutely represent the happiness of the people. This kind of life is happiness, you can't look at a single data, you must put all the data together and analyze it comprehensively, otherwise the result will be blind.

"Husband, at present, the price of our grain has begun to fall rapidly, and it has fallen by two percent!" Qin Jiarui said with a smile.

And Zhao Qiang also smiled, the fall in food prices was a good thing for the vast majority of ancient people. On the surface, the lower the price of food, the happier the people's lives, after all, the people take food as the sky! There are still remnants of this thinking that many people more than 1,000 years later, subconsciously think that the price of food can represent everything, but this is not the case. In later generations, the scolding of housing prices is far more than the scolding of food prices, which is enough to show that the pursuit of the people has changed, from food to the house, when the pursuit of food is not a problem, it will inevitably be higher, which is the desire of human nature is difficult to fill. However, there are still many people who subconsciously use food prices as an analysis, which is actually very unreasonable.

"What else? Food prices are falling, and it's two percent at a time, which I don't think is normal! Shi Bufan said first.

Shi Bufan turned to other people and asked: "How are the savings of various banks recently, and how are the loans?" What about other consumer goods? ”

Someone immediately followed: "Recently, it has been much easier for us to collect savings, and the growth rate of savings funds has increased by 20%. However, it is more difficult for us to lend, and the amount of money we lend has decreased by 10% compared to the past. However, according to the graph, we are in a downward trend overall. ”

"The prices of various commodities in the market have fallen for three consecutive months, and it is a general decline."

Shi Bufan then asked: "Go and ask the municipal bureau for a tax statistics, and let them see if the city tax has fallen recently." ”

Soon, the tax bills of Chang'an's east and west markets came, and Shi Bufan looked at this trend, and then shook his head.

"It seems that deflation is already on the horizon! The reduction of the city tax means that the transaction volume of the market has begun to decrease, on the contrary, the savings rate here has increased significantly, and the lending has also begun to decrease, indicating that the idea of merchants to invest in expanding their business has also begun to decrease. Even people are willing to save instead of shopping. Shi Bufan said.

Zhao Qiang hurriedly asked, "What's going on with this?" If the price is falling, why are people reluctant to buy it? It stands to reason that if prices fall, then people should like shopping more, how can this be? ”

This Zhao Qiang is obviously a layman, and subconsciously thinks that the price drop is a good thing, but Shi Bufan already knows that Datang deflation has begun to emerge.

"Zhao Qiang, if you have a product, knowing that the price will increase in the future, will you be in a hurry to sell it?" Shi Bufan asked.

Zhao Qiang must sleep: "Since the price will rise sooner or later, why am I in a hurry to sell it?" I'm sure I'll keep it and wait for the price to go up! ”

"Well, you understand that, then you should understand why this is happening. Because copper coins are essentially goods, because copper coins themselves have value, so he can measure the value of other goods. Copper coins are essentially a kind of goods, so since copper coins are becoming more and more valuable, why are they still in a hurry to buy them? Shi Bufan said.

Shi Bufan popularized this economic basis to everyone, especially about general equivalents and the so-called deflation. Because money itself is also a "commodity", and the value of commodities will change, if the currency is depreciating more and more, it is actually inflation. But once the currency appreciates more and more, it is actually deflation.

Inflation and deflation have a great impact on the people, and everyone in later generations scolded inflation, but in ancient times, deflation was very serious. When a person thinks that prices will get lower and lower, they will take the money and refuse to buy things in a hurry, because they want to wait for the price to drop further.

However, when the whole society thinks so, it will inevitably lead to an increasing shortage of money in circulation, and eventually the price of goods will be further forced to fall, the goods will be overstocked, and the "producers" of all kinds of commodities will go bankrupt. Bankruptcy will cause a large number of people to lose their jobs.

Therefore, the price drop caused by deflation is not a good thing, because after deflation, although prices fall, it is more difficult for people to get wages. In the event of deflation, people's wages will not rise, but will fall. So after deflation, prices will fall, but wages will also fall, and in the end it will be just a dog-bite-pig urine bubble - empty joy.

When prices fall, the peasants' surplus grain cannot be sold quickly, which will dampen the enthusiasm for buying all kinds of commodities, and the peasants have to take the initiative to lower the price again in order to sell it as soon as possible, but there will also be vicious competition.

This price drop is by no means a simple good thing, and a vicious price drop is probably much more terrible than a price rise.

"And what's going on?" Zhao Qiang was also frightened, frightened by Shi Bufan's follow-up analysis.

If it is really as Shi Bufan said, the abnormal decline in prices after deflation is not only not a good thing for the people, but even for the Tang Dynasty and the entire Tang Dynasty!

"Ladies and gentlemen, our savings rate is already rising, but the amount of money we lend is clearly decreasing. What do we rely on for a living, isn't it just the difference in interest between deposits and loans to make profits? Once everyone is keen on saving and not about spending, there are bound to be two outcomes. As our savings get higher and higher, our interest pressure increases. On the contrary, because the people are not keen on consumption, businessmen will also face production cuts, and their enthusiasm for lending and investing to expand their operations will be much lower. Instead, they are more keen to keep their money with us and wait for us to appreciate in value. ”

"So, it's easy for us to throw money into our hands. Deflation is not good news for us, and we have to find a way to contain it and recover from it. ”

Everyone began to talk about it, if it is really as Shi Bufan said, it is not good news for the Datang Money Federation. In particular, everyone is also facing this deflation, so that the savings are seriously abnormally increased, but the number of people who borrow is getting fewer and fewer, so that the interest given by the money bank to the depositors will also increase, and on the contrary, the interest rate through lending will decrease, which will also cause them to lose. This kind of squeezing at both ends is definitely not good news for the money union.

"Actually, I blame me for this, I implemented the cooperative before, which made the food production increase suddenly. In addition, the patent bill was introduced, and the enthusiasm of the people to improve the means of production and to come up with the ancestral tools of production has also increased, and the advanced production technologies of various people have been effectively integrated, and finally the grain output has increased a lot, which is also normal. ”

"I even promoted the production side of the assembly line, which increased the number of various commodities many times, which caused the production capacity to suddenly increase many times. On the contrary, my Datang's copper coins did not increase much, which is a kind of sudden deflation caused by the progress of productive forces. ”

Shi Bufan quickly knew that the reason for deflation was actually the most important reason. Because Shi Bufan came up with this cooperative program, the patent bill, and the assembly line production method. These three policies have maximized the release of productivity, the cooperative method has reduced the waste of manpower, and the patent bill has allowed many farmers to take out the ancestral farming methods of the past, so that everyone can use them together to a large extent. Through this integration, many advanced agricultural production technologies have been popularized and even further developed, and it is normal for agricultural productivity to increase suddenly and grain output to a great extent.

As for the assembly line method, it is not impossible to make the production output of the handicraft industry suddenly increase by several times, and even increase some by dozens of times. Thus the production of all agricultural and handicraft products increased dramatically, but the rate of increase in copper coins was much lower than these production capacities. The rate at which copper coins in circulation in the market increase much slower than the rate at which goods are supplied, and this creates a kind of "deflation of productivity".

A sudden increase in productivity, a sudden advance in scientific and technological development, which causes an increase in productivity, but money does not keep up, creates a kind of deflation. The extraordinary crossing of time has caused the deflation of this Datang to be detonated decades in advance, and even the intensity of this deflation is a hundred times and a thousand times stronger than the original history. The challenges facing Datang's economic ecology are far more than 100 times more brutal than in the original history, which is also brought about by the extraordinary times.

"Hey, I dug this hole myself, and I have to fill it myself!" Shi Bufan was helpless for a while.

Shi Bufan really didn't know that those other traversers who traveled through the Tang Dynasty invented this today and that tomorrow, which resulted in a productivity blowout. But there is no serious deflation, which is really a miracle! With the sudden increase in productivity, deflation is inevitable, and the people's lives may not be happier. But how did those traversers solve it, which made Shi Bufan really complain.

Now it is Shi Bufan who has dug a pit by himself, so that this Datang deflation will come decades in advance, and even more violently by a hundred times and thousands of times, and he must personally solve this pressure. Naturally, you have to fill the pit you dig yourself.

"The best way to solve deflation is one way, and that is to raise the money supply. To use a difficult sentence, that is, to increase the amount of coinage. Let the speed of minting money be increased to the speed of productivity progress, so as to ensure normal transactions in the market. Shi Bufan said.

However, Zhao Qiang, the money supervisor, said: "If we want to mint money to improve, then it is very difficult for us." I can be regarded as having seen the situation of the household department, I often act as a money union and the household department, and I know that Datang coinage can no longer be improved quickly. My Tang court can't get enough cheap copper. At present, we have minted as much money as possible, we have no copper, and there is no way to quickly obtain a large amount of copper ore, which is also difficult for a clever woman to cook without rice."

"Oops, trouble! The copper standard may be in danger! Shi Bufan thought.

Datang currently uses the copper standard, and the so-called copper coin standard is actually the copper standard. If this is enough to face this result, there will definitely be a lot of problems. Datang's copper production is not high, especially since China has not been a place with large copper reserves in the world. On the contrary, China's main copper reserves are in the Jiangnan region, which later became the Anhui and Jiangxi regions. These two areas are currently not very well developed. Even if it is effectively developed, a large part of it is poor ore that cannot be smelted by the mining and smelting technology of the current Tang Dynasty, which exacerbates the situation.

Shi Bufan dug a hole for himself, if he didn't fill it, it would be easy for all of Shi Bufan's plans to collapse. Shi Bufan's ability to ensure his current position largely depends on his financial ability. Why did Li Shimin try his best to keep him, why did Shi Bufan dare to fight Li Shimin, and why did Li Shimin take Shi Bufan even if he was angry? In fact, isn't this just that he can manage money? Shi Bufan can manage money, can manage money, can spend the money where it is most needed, and even make money while not hurting people's livelihood, but can promote people's livelihood. This is the greatest value of Shi Bufan to Datang, and this is also inseparable from Li Shimin. If Datang's economy collapses, then with the not-so-good relationship between him and Li Shimin, his head will be pinned to the waistband of his trousers.

This is still the imperial court, and many of his plans rely on huge financial security, and they all rely on huge economic security. So now this violent deflation, he is the first to feel the huge pressure. His plans for the future are completely dependent on finances, on great wealth, without which he has everything. The power of the imperial court depends on the guarantee of financial resources, and without the guarantee of financial resources, the power of affairs will inevitably be suspended, and the consequences will also collapse. The collapse of a regime often originates from the collapse of finances, and the Tang Dynasty has already begun to show signs of it.

If it goes on like this, Datang may collapse at its peak and perish in its heyday, which is not impossible.

(To be continued.) )