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Shi Bufan knew that since he had become an accident in history, he knew that there was no way back. Since Shi Bufan is a master's degree in history, he has a certain amount of research on the general trend of history. He knows that the general trend of history is mighty, and those who go along with it prosper and those who go against it perish. Now that he has been involved in this historical trend, he knows that he can't hide anymore. This historical trend is like the so-called "immeasurable catastrophe" in Xianxia novels, even if you want to dodge, you can't dodge. When you encounter this kind of thing, you can only go up and deal with it, and even if you hide in the house and face the disaster, you will find it yourself. It's useless to dodge, so Shi Bufan knows this deeply.

Shi Bufan knew that he had no choice, he could only choose to take refuge in Li Shimin. Why did he take refuge in Li Shimin, this is not how powerful Shi Bufan has a good impression of Li Shimin, nor is it that he admires Li Shimin. It's that he knows that taking refuge in Li Shimin is the one with the least "risk" for him. Although Li Shimin calculated him, Shi Bufan had to do this in order to avoid risks.

Although Shi Bufan is not a person who specializes in mathematics, he at least passes mathematics, and it is not even too bad, and he can get okay grades every time, although he is not as good as those who specialize in mathematics, but he is very good among those who specialize in liberal arts. And he's also a master's degree in economics, and he's studied economics, and there's a subject called game theory. Shi Bufan used the knowledge of economics and basic mathematics he had learned, and probability was easy to reason, and it was most beneficial for him to do what to do in this battle for succession. Through the analysis of what he has mastered, Shi Bufan's advantage is nothing more than being familiar with history and the history of the original Tang Dynasty, which is also a so-called "information advantage". He has an information advantage, and he has more "information asymmetry" advantages than people in this time and space. If he gave up that advantage, he was really going to be doomed.

He is not the kind of science student who can invent all kinds of things to make money, what else can he do in this era besides being an official? So he used the method of game theory to reason about the outcome if he went to help Li Jiancheng. Let's not talk about whether he went to tell Li Yuan or Li Jiancheng, did Li Yuan and Li Jiancheng believe that Li Shimin would launch a coup d'état in Xuanwumen, did they have to explain that they were traversers? If he explained that he was a traverser, then maybe Li Yuan and Li Jiancheng would not kill Li Shimin first, but themselves.

Even if it doesn't matter that they are traversers, Li Jiancheng and Li Yuan both believe their words, so what good will it do to themselves in the end? Li Jiancheng crushed Li Shimin's coup d'état, and then he may only be able to get some bonuses, or some petty officials. On the contrary, if you lose the grasp of the original history and the advantage of information asymmetry, what will be your chances of survival? So once Li Jiancheng successfully crushed Li Shimin's coup d'état, history also went to another huge branch.

Shi Bufan used the probability in game theory and mathematics to roughly calculate, and he roughly calculated that if he was under the rule of Li Shimin, there might be more than 70% chance of surviving, or even surviving. And this is based on his familiarity with the original history and his familiarity with Li Shimin. And Shi Bufan is not familiar with Li Jiancheng, so he does not have the so-called "information and intelligence advantage". But living under Li Jiancheng's rule, the probability that he will be able to live in peace is unpredictable, but it will definitely be very low.

Therefore, he was in a choice of economists seeking good fortune and avoiding evil, and he chose to take refuge in Li Shimin. This is not his admiration for Li Shimin, but he is a very rational reasoning through scientific reasoning, because the probability of his survival under Li Shimin's rule is far higher than the probability of surviving under Li Jiancheng. So he was very rational at this moment, and after taking into account all aspects of the risks, he decided to still take refuge in Li Shimin, because although Li Shimin cheated him, he didn't have the idea of killing him.

"I've seen the eldest grandson princess, and I've seen the county lord of Lizhi!" Shi Bufan brought his fiancée Dugu Daxue to the Qin Palace, and it was the eldest grandson and princess who received them.

Princess Changsun saw that Shi Bufan brought his fiancée Dugu Daxue to visit, and she also took the initiative to say: "King Qin is out now, it is the Chinese New Year, and King Qin has taken the initiative to spend it with his subordinates, so I'm afraid he will come back tonight." If you want, you can take a look around this Qin Palace. You can go anywhere in this Qin Wangfu, including the back house! ”

Dugu Daxue was a little surprised, and asked, "Princess, can any man enter the back house of King Qin's mansion?" ”

Dugu Daxue was very surprised, there were no rules in the Qin Palace, and any servants and staff members in the palace were allowed to enter the back house, is this one too violated? You must know that in ancient times, even if the Tang Dynasty was open-minded, even if there were some Hu people in the Northern and Southern Dynasties, they would not casually let outsiders enter the back house. The back house is a place where women live, and anyone with a high status will be a little stingy and don't want their women to contact too many men. But Li Shimin didn't block it, but let the servants and courtiers in the Qin Palace's palace walk around casually, I really don't know how to describe it.

"Hehe, King Qin said, don't suspect people when you use them! This is not a big deal, since the King of Qin believes in them, he naturally believes in their morality, and will not do such a cholera palace thing. The eldest grandson said.

Shi Bufan didn't say anything, but he was thinking in his heart: "Pretend to be 13." ”

Shi Bufan saw an allusion in the history textbooks of middle schools in later generations, that is, after Li Shimin became the emperor, according to the rules, under normal circumstances, the guards were absolutely not able to show their weapons in front of the emperor. However, Li Shimin insisted on personally teaching the soldiers to learn martial arts, and he was still there to say that he was not suspicious of employing people, and he was not afraid that those guards would assassinate him. When he was young, Shi Bufan really thought that Li Shimin was a frank person, but when he grew up, he was completely skeptical about these things. Li Shimin is so generous, in fact, it is nothing more than buying people's hearts. In fact, those who can become guards, according to Shi Bufan's understanding, are nothing more than the descendants of those powerful people in the city. The descendants of those powerful people and Li Shimin are completely people of the same class, and even people who have both prosperity and loss. Those guards are all descendants of those powerful people, and out of their own family and class interests, it is impossible for them to attack Li Shimin, and this nonsense is also in vain.

So now Li Shimin has a means to not restrict his subordinates and servants from entering and leaving the back house where the female dependents stay. In fact, in addition to Hu Fengshang's survival, there is another reason, that is, the reason of probability. In fact, Shi Bufan learned the science of probability, and he knew that although there was no shortage of emperors being cuckolded in ancient times. But in fact, the probability is still very low. The situation of daring to cuckold the emperor is nothing more than concentration. One is that the emperor died, and then the queen mother took over the power, and only then did she dare to cuckold the dead emperor. So this is actually an uncontrollable factor, not the emperor's own reason, if the emperor himself is alive, then naturally this kind of thing cannot happen. As for the fact that the real emperor dared to cuckold the emperor when he was alive and had real power, it was extremely low. Even those concubines didn't dare to mess around, because they were not alone, but the family behind them.

So on the whole, in fact, the chance that the emperor will be cuckolded is not even 1 in 1,000. Li Shimin uses this method to buy people's hearts, because he is very calculating, he has long known that even if he opens the back house, the probability of being cuckolded is less than one in a thousand, or even less than one in 10,000. But doing so is enough to buy the hearts of his subordinates and courtiers, because in this way the lord "trusts" them!

In fact, it is nothing more than nonsense, the probability of being cuckolded is less than 1 in 1,000 and 1 in 1,000, and with the risk of 1 in 1,000 or even 1 in 10,000 to buy the loyalty of his courtiers, this "deal" is worth it! The palace ban during the Tang Dynasty was not so perverted, so Li Shimin thought that such a low risk could buy the hearts of so many important ministers, which was simply a lot of money. Who wouldn't have this kind of fake thing!

Li Shimin used this method, Shi Bufan immediately used huge data as reasoning, and he quickly reasoned out this process. In fact, even if Li Shimin opened up the danger of being cuckolded in the back house, it was almost impossible, so of course he knew that he would use this opportunity to buy people's hearts.

Therefore, Shi Bufan's performance was very bland, but Dugu Daxue subconsciously admired: "King Qin is really generous, and he is really a generation of masters!" ”

The eldest grandson princess was surprised when she saw Dugu Daxue, and she was actually very proud in her heart. Because in fact, this idea was not thought up by Li Shimin, but by the eldest grandson, the princess. In fact, the risk of allowing those servants and courtiers to enter and leave the back house freely is not great, but very low. But if such a low risk can be exchanged for the loyalty of those courtiers, then this business will make a lot of money. In the final analysis, Li Shimin still regards the country more seriously than women. And he values the country, and naturally values talents more, so he doesn't mind using this kind of extremely low-risk thing to buy the hearts of his courtiers. As this kind of person, everyone can calculate, and they have already figured out the risks and benefits involved.

"Alright, you guys take a look around!" The eldest grandson replied.

After the eldest princess left, Shi Bufan took the initiative to say: "Heavy snow, let's go to the backyard of King Qin's mansion to have a look!" ”

"I don't want to go, it's one thing for King Qin to mind after all, but it's still necessary to avoid suspicion!" Dugu Daxue said cautiously.

However, Shi Bufan said: "Since you came, if you don't go in vain, since you calculate me, then I can see enough of his backyard, then I am thankful!" ”

Shi Bufan took Dugu Daxue to the backyard of King Qin's mansion, and then there were two guards guarding here.

"I'm going in!" Shi Bufan said.

The two guards were a little embarrassed, and then Shi Bufan continued to ask: "Isn't it that the backyard of the Qin Wangfu can be freely accessed?" ”

The two guards really smiled bitterly, Nima is polite to Li Shimin, are you really serious? Although Li Shimin said that he could let the courtiers and servants freely enter and leave the backyard of his Qin Palace, everyone was not stupid, and they knew that people were polite, after all, the courtiers still had etiquette. For so many years, not a single foreign minister has taken the initiative without being invited! Although it's not like no one has ever gone in, but it was all when someone invited me to take the initiative to go in by myself, and there really wasn't!

I've seen a fat gut, but I've never seen a fat gut person, and he actually took the initiative to ask to enter the backyard of King Qin's mansion without being invited, which made those guards a little embarrassed.

"Alright, I'm in! Hmph, I can't be beaten by you once in vain, if I don't get some back, then I won't let you be depressed, then I can't understand my thoughts! Shi Bufan said deliberately.

Shi Bufan swaggered into the backyard of King Qin's mansion with Dugu Daxue, and then the guard hurriedly went to inform Princess Changsun to see what she would do.

"Princess, this Shi Bufan said that he couldn't be beaten once in vain, so he wanted to make King Qin depressed, otherwise he wouldn't be able to reach it for a long time! What does this mean exactly? The guard said.

When the eldest princess heard this, she was also a little speechless, but in the end she sneered and said: "This time is extraordinary, it seems that he is really an interesting person, but he is also a true temperament, don't hide it!" Although he is clever and cunning, he has a true temperament and does not hide it. However, this is also reassuring, if it is a scheming old fox, then we are not at ease! ”

The eldest grandson said, "Okay, if you go in, you will go in, let him take a good look!" ”

"But, Princess, this ......"

The eldest grandson princess didn't care and said: "What can go wrong, the backyard is full of King Qin's people, and there can't be any accidents." He is a literati, what else can he do? It's just that he expressed King Qin's dissatisfaction with his calculations, let him be angry, and let him understand his thoughts. Anyway, it's just to express his dissatisfaction, and with his cleverness, he naturally knows that it is impossible to mess around inside. So, don't bother him, let him see for himself. ”

Shi Bufan and Dugu Daxue swaggered and did not shy away from looking around in the backyard of King Qin's mansion, and those guards and maids received the order of the eldest grandson princess, and they would not stop it, as if they didn't see it.

Shi Bufan soon saw a group of little girls playing games in front, and he took the initiative to go up with Dugu Daxue.

"Shixiao Shulang, why did you come in?" Li Lizhi asked in surprise.

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