Chapter 43 Information Asymmetry
From ancient times to the present, even in China and abroad, many officials have always had a certain so-called route for promotion. For example, in the Ming Dynasty, there was a so-called rule that non-Jinshi did not enter the Hanlin, and non-Hanlin did not enter the cabinet. Until later generations, there were so-called people who wanted to be promoted to national leaders, and they had to go through several key positions before they were eligible to be listed as candidates for national leaders. Doesn't even foreigners have some unspoken rules, and if they want to be the leader of a country, they must go through the rules of a governor or a legislator? In fact, some of this promotion route is for the good of the country, so that the official can accumulate some experience so that he can serve better, and some of them are deliberately set up for the sake of protecting the interests of certain people. However, in fact, many of the promotions of officials in this way have certain routes that can be checked, and there are some conventional routes that ordinary people cannot break through. Those who break through are often blacklisted by the entire officialdom, or this situation is just a very accidental phenomenon and by no means a regular occurrence.
Originally, according to the regulations of the early Tang Dynasty, if those middle and senior officials of the second generation wanted to take the route of military attachés, they had to serve as the emperor's personal guards, so that they would mix up one level first. This kind of situation of being the emperor's guard and then looking for an opportunity to release after a period of time originated from the various "langs" of the Han Dynasty, and in the early days of the Han Dynasty, if you want to be an official, you must first be the emperor's bodyguard, and Lang Zhongling is responsible for commanding. Although this guard is more symbolic, and in fact does not really need to be in charge of the guard's work, it is also helping them to get closer to their identity.
However, Shi Bufan suggested that Li Shimin should promote Dugu Daxue's younger brother to prepare for Qianniu, which is tantamount to allowing Dugu Daxue's younger brother to obtain a real power position several years in advance. Qianniu Beishen is the official position in Qianniuwei, responsible for following the emperor to protect the emperor, and is an honor guard, and is the emperor's senior bodyguard. This is not a symbolic official position of the Honorable Guard, but an actual official position of real power. If you can get this Qianniu Reserve, it is equivalent to making Brother Dugu Daxue several years ahead of schedule!
As an official, youth is also capital. In many cases, political battles are not about who is stronger, but about who will live longer. Even later generations of officials have an advantage when they are young, not to mention the era of shorter life expectancy in ancient times? If you can save a few years of time, I am afraid that in the future, I am afraid that I will be several steps ahead of others. Therefore, although Dugu Daxue felt that Shi Bufan's request was too much, he held back, because this was related to his brother's future, and he had to pay attention to it.
In the secret room, Fang Xuanling also said: "This time is extraordinary, it's just blackmail, is it so easy to give a thousand cows?" This is a six-rank military attaché, and he actually wants to open his mouth! He's just a Ninth Rank, and he actually wants to meddle in the decision of the Sixth Rank Military Attaché? ”
However, Du Ruhui shook his head and said, "King Qin will agree, King Qin will probably agree." Because of the location of Dugu Kaiyuan and Dugu Daxue, it is simply critical. If we didn't have their support, we wouldn't have succeeded. So we have to get their support, or we're going to be in danger this time. Most of the King of Qin will agree, and the King of Qin will not lose so much because of a small loss. However, what I wonder most about is why this Shi Bufan put forward this condition so plainly, is he so sure that King Qin will agree? ”
"That's right! How dare he put forward such high conditions, it can even be said to be blackmail. How could he be so sure that King Qin would agree? Did he know about our plans? Fang Xuanling asked.
Du Ruhui hurriedly said: "Impossible, the current people who know our plan are nothing more than a few people." King Qin, you and me, the eldest grandson Wuji, and finally Chen Dade. You and I and the eldest grandson Wuji are absolutely of the same mind as King Qin and will not betray. Chen Dade is also a person who has followed King Qin for many years, so it is impossible for King Qin to say nonsense with his big mouth, right? Even a few of our generals don't know our future plans, and it's impossible for this to know. ”
"Could it be that he has just entered the official career, so he has no experience and dares to open under any conditions?" Fang Xuanling wondered again.
However, Du Ruhui replied: "It's like, it's not like it!" We know so little about this time, almost nothing. I felt as if we were all seen through by him in front of him, but we didn't know him at all. This is the first time I've felt uncomfortable in a long time. I really don't know how much he knows about us, but we don't know anything about him at all, and that makes me very uncomfortable. I had no way of knowing what kind of person this Shi Bufan was, but he seemed to be very confident in us, very well understood, and I was uncomfortable with this situation. I'm afraid that King Qin also feels the same way. ”
Li Shimin looked at Shi Bufan's "calm" appearance, as if he was sure that he would agree. And Li Shimin also secretly scolded, is this Shi Bufan really smart or a novice in politics? How dare you even open such conditions? But the time card of Shi Bufan was just right, and Li Shimin almost didn't dare to refuse. Li Shimin didn't dare to bet, and he didn't dare to bet that once he opened his mouth to refuse, would it make Dugu Kaiyuan and Dugu Daxue disgusted with him, which had the opposite effect. If he hadn't made the plan of the Xuanwu Sect by himself, then he would probably have refused without hesitation.
Li Shimin also fell silent, obviously wanting to wait and see what happened.
Shi Bufan also sat calmly, both sides were silent, obviously it was time to compete patience and confidence.
"Li Shimin, I know all about your plans, and you are transparent people to me. But you don't know anything about me, and this is an asymmetry of information between me and yours. Isn't the most important thing for me to study economics the information advantage? The information advantage on both sides of the economy is one of the greatest advantages, and I know almost all of your plans, and I certainly know how to 'blackmail' you to get the most benefits. A thousand oxen are ready to go, just between what you can accept and what you can't. If you want to be higher, then I am afraid that even if you accept it, we will not have good fruit to eat in the future. But Qianniu is ready to go, just stuck between what you can accept and what you can't. As soon as I opened my mouth, I reached the bottom line of your acceptance, so in the end you still have to say yes. Because of our information asymmetry, I know almost all of your plans, but you don't know me at all, and you will definitely suffer the loss of this information asymmetry. Shi Bufan thought in his heart.
There is a theory in economics called information asymmetry, that is, people who have more information can gain a greater advantage when trading. For example, there is a saying that it is better to buy than to sell, which means that the selling price is often more informative than the seller, so it is easier for them to fool the buyer. Of course, this is not absolute, sometimes antiques are missing, but the buyer has more "information" than the selling price, so that the seller suffers. Therefore, it is often advantageous for both parties to the transaction to have more information.
This kind of information asymmetry is not only economics, but also the role of intelligence in military science. In the final analysis, military reconnaissance and espionage are all for the purpose of obtaining "information," and with information, we can naturally obtain auxiliary decision-making and obtain a greater guarantee for the victory of the war. The same is true for international negotiations, if you know the "bottom line" of the other party, then it is easy to get the maximum benefit for yourself without completely provoking the other party.
Shi Bufan made clever use of this, that is, if Li Shimin wanted to launch a coup d'état in Xuanwumen, then he would inevitably get the support of Dugu Kaiyuan and Dugu Daxue. Therefore, Shi Bufan can rest assured to boldly "blackmail" them and get the greatest benefit for himself. A thousand cattle are ready to prepare, just above Li Shimin's bottom line, but they have not broken through the bottom line. If the requirements are higher, then in the end, I am afraid that even if Li Shimin agrees, but in the future, after Li Shimin becomes the emperor, he will also give Shi Bufan small shoes. is a thousand cows, just above the bottom line, which makes Li Shimin hesitate, just between too much and not too much.
"Damn, this Shi Bufan, how can he be so calm, can he be sure that I will definitely agree?" Li Shimin smiled bitterly in his heart, it seems that he is really not out of date.
This is a contest of confidence between the two sides, and whoever speaks first will lose. But how does the confidence come from, doesn't it rely on understanding the other party? The more you know about each other, the more confident you are. Li Shimin They know too little about Shi Bufan, but they are almost transparent to Shi Bufan, so in fact, Shi Bufan's confidence is much greater than Li Shimin.
"Shi Xiao Shulang, I think since Qianniu Wei is the guard responsible for protecting the emperor, will the lonely king feel uneasy because of this?" Li Shimin finally said.
Shi Bufan replied: "Qianniu Wei is the guard responsible for protecting the emperor, but isn't it also defending you the King of Qin in the future?" So, since it was a matter of time, why did King Qin be in such a hurry? The strength of Qianniuwei is not strong, the total number of Qianniuwei on the left and right is less than seven hundred, and the real main force of the guards is that the soldiers from all over the country take turns to come to Chang'an to be responsible for the soldiers on the fan, and in the end they are also responsible for the palace guards, so where are the soldiers of Qianniuwei important. So Qianniuwei is actually just the emperor's honor guard, not a real janissaries, so why does it matter? ”
Li Shimin was suddenly surprised, and then he immediately thought of something. Qianniuwei was not the main force of the Tang Dynasty Imperial Guard, and the Tang Dynasty did not have a corresponding Praetorian Guard in the real sense. Although the Beimen Tun Army was stationed in Xuanwumen, their significance was to fight head-on, not to be a full-time guard. So the one who is really in charge of the Praetorian Guard is actually not much different from the regular army. However, the people in charge of the Praetorian Guard were the government soldiers on the twelve guards in turn, but these government soldiers were Dugu Kaiyuan as the actual leader.
So Li Shimin suddenly remembered that Dugu Daxue's father was also Dugu Kaiyuan, so if he could appease Dugu Kaiyuan's son, then it would be possible to further woo Dugu Kaiyuan. And if this Dugu Daxue's younger brother is arranged, it is inevitable that Dugu Daxue and Dugu Kaiyuan will support him.
"Okay, General Dugu is really the pillar of my Datang, and he is a relative of my Datang, of course he is trustworthy. And Dugu Shanggong served in the palace, so let her younger brother go to Qianniuwei, that is also to let their sister and brother meet often together and do things for their father and emperor together! So, I guess I can still say yes! Li Shimin agreed.
Dugu Daxue didn't know what this meant, although Dugu Daxue had served in the court for a long time, and was no stranger to politics, and even more experienced than Shi Bufan. But she didn't know the "information" in it, Shi Bufan knew Li Shimin and them, so he was so confident. But Dugu Daxue didn't understand the twists and turns in this, so she didn't know what to do. Military operations, political games, and even economic exchanges all rely on information, and information resources are one of the most important resources. And once he fell into the information asymmetry, it was really fatal, so this time Li Shimin found that he didn't know anything about Shi Bufan at all, but Shi Bufan was stuck just right, and he actually touched his bottom line all of a sudden, but he didn't break through the bottom line, which made Li Shimin very depressed.
As someone who has always wanted to get the most out of it at the lowest cost, he was very uncomfortable with this feeling of being at a loss. Although Shi Bufan did not break through his bottom line, he paid an extra price, which was not very happy.
"Terrible, terrible, this Shi Bufan is really terrible!" Du Ruhui wiped the cold sweat from his forehead.
Fang Xuanling immediately asked, "Keming, aren't you very good at judging things?" Why are you so scared now? ”
"This Shi Bufan is more able to break than me, he stuck our throat every time, so that King Qin had to agree. This Shi Bufan is too powerful, and he has just the right handle, and King Qin has already fallen into his trap. I really don't know how much he knows about us. How much he knows about us, it's terrible. We now have two choices, one is to put this time out of our mouths. And the other one, that is, try to buy and win him over, and definitely can't let him go to the prince's side, otherwise we will really be finished! Du Ruhui said affirmatively.
However, Fang Xuanling said with a wry smile: "Extinguishing the mouth, where is it so easy?" There are too many people involved behind him, and the children of the major noble clans are all studying with him, and if we dare to say it, there must be many people to investigate together. Will we be able to cover it up completely? I don't have the confidence that I can completely block the news in front of so many powerful nobles and nobles. ”
"Yes! This Shi Bufan may just know this situation, and he is fearless! This is the most terrifying thing about him, he can analyze everything around him very thoroughly, so he can 'break' better than me! Du Ruhui replied.