Chapter 310: The Drawbacks of Deflation (Part II)
Anyone who knows a little bit about economic history knows that during the Tang and Song dynasties in ancient China, it was a very serious period of deflation in China. Pen? Interesting? Pavilion wWw. biquge。 infoIn the Tang Dynasty, according to the "Food Chronicles" in the Tang Book, a bucket of white rice in the Tang Dynasty cost about 20 yuan. And some people based on this conversion, the result is that the price is actually not high, very cheap. But Shi Bufan feels very abnormal, a bucket of white rice in this Tang Dynasty is only twenty Wen, and it seems that the price is very low, really low. Some people will conclude from this that the Tang Dynasty was very wealthy and the people lived very happily.
In fact, Shi Bufan obviously felt that this price was seriously low, and this price should not be a normal price, and it was impossible to truly judge whether the people were really happy from the price of food. Because Shi Bufan knows better that human desires are infinite, when food is satisfied, many people will begin to pursue higher material needs, even spiritual needs. Just like in the 21st century, although many people in the 21st century said that the people take food as their heaven, everything that was broadcast on TV every day was to discuss the high housing prices, but how could they have discussed the price of food too many times? The discussion of housing prices is far more numerous times than the discussion of food prices, which is actually enough to prove that when food is met and food prices are relatively stable, the people's needs have been transferred from food to other things, especially houses.
Therefore, Shi Bufan believes that the price of grain in the Tang Dynasty cannot directly prove that the Tang Dynasty was very good, at least the argument of this proof is wrong. Moreover, the price of grain in the Tang Dynasty was so low, not necessarily because grain was really so cheap, and this cheap price was not a normal price. Shi Bufan thought that the Tang Dynasty should be an era of very serious deflation, so in order to prove his judgment, Shi Bufan checked a lot of information on the Tang Dynasty from the beginning of Tang Gaozong Li Zhi to the Kaiyuan era. Among them, it was found that since the Tang Gaozong period, a large number of copper coins have been minted, and many coinage supervisors have been set up, responsible for minting various copper coins.
However, no matter how much the Tang Dynasty minted copper coins, those copper coins could not meet the needs of the people, and there was always a result of expensive money and light goods in the market. The so-called "money is expensive and goods are light", that is, people would rather collect money and wait for it to appreciate, rather than use it for consumption, resulting in an abnormal price drop in goods. This is, in the economic parlance of later generations, deflation, even to a very serious point. And some people directly take it out of context, thinking that just looking at the price of that food and goods journal thinks that the price level in the Tang Dynasty is very cheap, completely ignoring any other reality.
In fact, anyone who studies economics knows that those statistics must not be trusted, but they must not be fully trusted. Because any economist, statistician, and even a lot of accountants, it's not hard to produce data. Pure data does not represent anything, but too many people simply prove the wealth of the Tang Dynasty by this price data of the Tang Dynasty, and completely ignore other things.
A lot of Tang fans, Song fans, and Ming fans are completely attacking one point, regardless of anything else. On the prosperity of the Tang Dynasty, some people specially came up with so-called data to prove it, but completely ignored the fact that deflation began with Gaozong of the Tang Dynasty and accompanied the people from the late Tang Dynasty, and the people suffered a lot of "money shortages". However, during the Black Song Dynasty, the Song Dynasty was measured by military warfare, attacking the Song Dynasty's civilian and official army, causing the army's combat effectiveness to decline. However, it completely ignores that the Song Dynasty is actually commonly used in later generations, and there is almost no hidden danger of warlord secession after the Song Dynasty, except that it will be re-secessed after too many foreign forces join in the Republic of China. The control of military power in various countries, which is not very strict, and the civilian command of the army is the practice adopted by the vast majority of countries, which is not a big problem, but the Song Dynasty overcorrected it when it was implemented. Decision-making and execution are completely as important, and the purpose of the Song Dynasty was not wrong, but the implementation was overkill.
Similarly, many "brain-dead fans" just agree for the sake of approval, oppose for the sake of opposition, and find a black material to spray hard. I also found something that was beneficial to myself, and I didn't care about anything else. The deflation of the Tang Dynasty was completely ignored, and the abnormally low prices were proved to be evidence that the people of the Tang Dynasty lived happily. In this regard, Shi Bufan can only hehe.
"Liu Renliang, you should know the consequences of Gu Cheap hurting the peasants. Prices are too low, but not necessarily a good thing. Low prices will inevitably lead to an abnormal increase in the value of copper coins. Once the value of copper coins rises abnormally, it will inevitably make people unhappy to consume, and then collect all the copper coins, hoping that prices will continue to fall. However, when everyone thinks so, then in the end no one wants to consume. A large amount of grain and various commodities were backlogged, and the merchants and peasants were unable to sell their own commodities and grains in time. In this way, for the farmer, they have been farming for a year, but they are not getting the income they deserve. For merchants, their backlog of goods will inevitably be mitigated by cutting the wages of their employees. Even when the time comes, the dismissal of employees, causing employees to lose their jobs, is also a huge problem. Therefore, when prices fall abnormally, it will cause many people to be unable to survive normally. It will also cause business to not circulate, and market transactions will be abnormal. At that time, people who wanted to sell things but couldn't sell them, and people who wanted to buy things were reluctant to buy things with more and more valuable currency, so everyone would die together. So the abnormal drop in prices, that is definitely not a good phenomenon, and it does not prove that the people are happy, understand? I have said more than once that during the Han Dynasty, a large number of copper coins were rusted in the treasury, and the ropes were moldy and rotten, which is not necessarily a good thing. Money is only money when it is circulated, and if it is not circulated, it is scrap copper and rotten iron. However, when the price of copper rises, the people will cherish the copper coin, which further aggravates deflation. ”
"And our China has not been a country that can quickly produce a large amount of copper coins, and we are actually very short of copper. In particular, our current mining capacity of Datang can only mine those copper ores that are superficial and rich ores. We can't dig out and smelt the poor mines and the copper mines that are buried too deep. At present, we in China have relatively few rich mines, so we can only go overseas to find them. Since I invented the assembly line production method, in the future, through this assembly line method, it will spread to all kinds of official workshops and ordinary merchants, and they will all use the assembly line method. At that time, there will be a very surplus of supplies, and we will need more copper to mint money. Once the cost of minting money is too large, then we will cause a shortage of copper coins and deflation, which is not good for the people! ”
What Shi Bufan considered was that he invented this assembly line model, and Datang's deflation would inevitably be detonated in advance. It was the time of Gaozong of the Tang Dynasty that the first hints were seen, but Shi Bufan came up with the idea of increasing grain output and proposed the production method of the assembly line, which would definitely cause the productivity of the Tang Dynasty to increase too quickly. At that time, the market will be filled with materials, and the deflation of the Tang Dynasty will come decades earlier, and the arrival will definitely not be lighter than the original history, and will definitely be more than a hundred times more serious. In order to cope with the future wave of deflation, Shi Bufan had to ask Liu Renliang to go to Luzon, that is, the Philippines in later generations, to collect copper ore as soon as possible.
Of course, there are copper mines in China, but many of them are poor. With the smelting technology of the Tang Dynasty, it was impossible to dig too deep for minerals, and it was also impossible to smelt minerals that were too barren. The technology of the Tang Dynasty could only smelt rich ores, so there was no way to do it, so it was only to set its sights on Luzon, the Philippines in later generations. The Philippines has huge copper resources, and even gold resources are abundant. Of course, the world's largest copper and gold mines are not the Philippines, but the Philippines is closest to China and is more likely to get it than those in the Americas.
Shi Bufan's plan is that in the future, if various copper and gold mines can be quickly collected from the Philippines, the gold standard may be implemented in Datang in the future, and the copper standard will be abandoned. However, this also depends on the sea and navy, which is why Liu Renliang attaches great importance to it. Once a serious deflation breaks out at that time, it will be very unfavorable to Shi Bufan's economic development in Datang, and even once the deflation is serious, causing a large number of people to lose their jobs, they may oppose the adoption of new scientific and technological production at that time. High deflation is a huge regression for human civilization, and it will force human civilization to regress. Compared with inflation, the horror of deflation is not necessarily lower than inflation, inflation may just make people crazy, but once deflation is too high, it will make the whole civilization regress, which is even more terrible.
"Shi Yuan Wailang, since this is the case, then I will try to do it as soon as possible. Even if it is my life, I will bring back this Luzon copper mine. This is related to the well-being of all the people in the world, and I will definitely do it. Liu Renliang said.
Shi Bufan then asked rhetorically: "If someone objects, what should you do?" Especially those who depend on agriculture, they don't want the population to go out, they want to tie the population to the land. Even the more populous the population, the more surplus the agricultural population becomes, the more food distribution they can depress, and the more severely they can exploit the common people. They will definitely object to you sending the population out, because once the population goes out, they have to increase the percentage of the peasants in order to keep the population for them to plow the land. It's not good for them, so they're going to attack you instead, what do you do? ”
Shi Bufan's meaning is obvious, and his words are telling Liu Renliang that those scholars will inevitably oppose overseas development at that time. The reason why China has not opened up overseas is actually related to China's economic foundation. The larger the population, the more people compete for farming, and finally the landlord can take the opportunity to increase his share. Anyway, if you don't want to farm, others will do the same. Manpower is actually a resource, and those landlords naturally think that a surplus of manpower will help them improve their own interests. Therefore, they must oppose commerce and overseas development, because industry and commerce will absorb a lot of surplus labor, so if they want to retain the peasants, they naturally have to lower themselves and increase the distribution ratio of the peasants. And if the peasants have industry and commerce to work and overseas to emigrate, they can naturally ask the landlords for more shares.
Therefore, in the power held by the landlord class, they are often opposed to immigration and population movement. This is also the foundation of China's emphasis on agriculture and suppression of commerce, and it is definitely not Confucianism. The West also had a heavy agricultural and commercial repression, and the heavy physiocrats, that is, the school that helped those feudal manor owners to defend themselves, were to a large extent deceiving themselves. As a result, the sins of the landlord class let Confucianism take the blame.
Therefore, if Liu Renliang wants to develop overseas development, he will definitely be strictly opposed by the landlords of the Shi clan, so Shi Bufan is worried about whether Liu Renliang will be able to hold on.
"When the staff is outside, where the road is, although there are tens of millions of people, I will also go. For the sake of the well-being of all the people of the world, whoever stops me, I will fight with him! Liu Renliang said firmly.
"Very good, with this idea, then I will be relieved. As long as we can expand overseas, there are many benefits. Not only can more resources be obtained from overseas, but a large surplus population can be absorbed through overseas trade. Especially in the next decade, we will have a great peak in fertility. In the next fifteen years or so, there will inevitably be a population explosion in Datang, and the population pressure will increase sharply at that time. At that time, it was necessary to absorb the surplus population through industry and commerce, as well as overseas immigrants, to expand the territory of our Tang Dynasty and alleviate the population pressure. So you are related to my Datang and my future in China, don't take it lightly. You're definitely under a lot of pressure, so hopefully you'll be prepared. You must set up this nautical academy as soon as possible, and strive to let a large group of people benefit from this nautical journey as soon as possible, so that they will all become your cronies and die-hard supporters of our group. We have to have someone behind us, and there is a group behind us. And if we really don't have a group, then we can create a group. Only with the support of a huge group behind us can we be invincible! ”
"Thank you for the teachings of Shi Yuanwailang, I will definitely try it as soon as possible. But what should we do with this teaching? How do we recruit students, and all kinds of things, I am also blind, how do we get it? According to what you said about the division of majors, but how to recruit students? I don't know how we recruit students! Liu Renliang said. (To be continued.) )