Zhang Jiaao is most worried about inflation, although there is no serious inflation yet, but moderate inflation still appears, although only 3%, but this sign is very bad. Pen? Interesting? Pavilion wWw. ｂiquge。 ｉｎfo

Zhang Jiaao's professional knowledge told him that if this continued, sooner or later there would be inflation, and now there was only one sign that made him anxious. Some things are often terrible because they haven't happened, like a drawn bow that hasn't been fired, or like a sword hanging over your head that hasn't fallen. The most terrifying thing is that you know that the arrow will definitely fire, that sword will definitely fall, and the waiting time is torment.

If hyperinflation really happens, maybe Zhang Jiaao is not so anxious, just solve the problem if it occurs, and don't need to spend so much effort to prevent the problem from happening.

"A certain amount of inflation is definitely going to happen, and it's something we can live with, and there's nothing to worry about."

Yang Chao's comfort apparently didn't work.

"Premier Yang, do you think it can last for a few years, a year or two years? If you tell me I can last three years, I'll get a good night's sleep tonight. ”

Clearly, Zhang Jiaao feels that the monetary system will collapse at any moment.

Yang Chao said with a smile: "It will definitely not happen in one or two years, and it may not happen in ten or eight years." ”

If Yang Chao said that he had been lying for three years, Zhang Jiaao thought that he was lying to him, but he was sincere in deceiving him, and he said that he was not sincere in deceiving people for ten or eight years.

Zhang Jiaao said seriously: "The government must immediately stop the expansion of the deficit, otherwise it will collapse next year." ”

Roosevelt spent $36 billion on the New Deal in the United States, and financial experts told Roosevelt that he must start to control the danger of inflation, so Roosevelt stopped the deficit, which caused a second round of economic crisis.

Zhang Jiaao's courage is obviously not big enough, but because of Yang Chao's 20,000 tons of gold, he forced the government to issue a deficit of 50 billion taels, but now it has reached the limit, because according to the current dollar price, this is more than 100 billion US dollars.

"It will take at least three years for us to adjust our economy, and I don't plan to change the current policy in three years. Why don't you look at the Germans, they are more radical than we are, and they don't see inflation in Germany. ”

Yang Chao took Germany as an example, in fact, the two countries are not comparable at all, in the economic field China can only be compared with the United States, because China and Germany are not at the same level at all, and the comparison with the United States can only be referred to, can not be used for reference, because China still has China's problems, that is, industrialization has not yet been completed, and the proportion of urbanization is still very low.

Zhang Jiaao has not studied Germany's economic policy, and no one in the financial circles of the white wizard Schacht will ignore it, and Schacht is now taking a very radical, but very risky and opportunistic approach.

But on the whole, Schacht was a traditional financier, and he was now in full control of the Nazi economy, and his main policies were actually austerity-oriented. But he took a series of emergency measures, such as issuing special bonds, such as employment bonds, which the central bank would discount, so companies were willing to accept these bonds, but only when the companies used the funds to expand the scale of production, the central bank would give discounts; It also cooperated with United Iron and Steel to set up an unwarranted company in the name of United Iron and Steel to issue bonds and create credit out of thin air; There are also military coupons that everyone does not know, which are also not used for circulation, but are only used as funds paid by the government to the military-industrial enterprises, and the banks are secretly discounted, which is not as good as financial reports, which not only conceals the secrets of Germany's arms expansion and warfare, but also restricts their flow into the field of circulation.

Through a series of measures, a series of bills created by the government are constrained to prevent these funds from being used for consumption, so as to limit inflation.

China, on the other hand, has adopted the simplest and crude way of issuing bonds by the government and directly buying them by the central bank, which is actually the government printing money, but through the hands of the central bank and being monitored by the central bank.

"If you want, we can do it the German way."

Zhang Jiaao said angrily, that kind of special bond is completely a temporary measure, it is impossible to last for a long time, and it is a kind of damage to monetary credit, unless Yang Chao does not want China's monetary credit, then indiscriminately issue that kind of bond.

The White Wizard Shacht was dancing on the tip of a knife, they had no gold reserves, and had to resort to this deceptive way of creating credit out of thin air, and in the core, in Shacht's opinion, he preferred to have Mark tied to gold.

Of course, Yang Chao couldn't agree to this way and smiled: "Don't worry." Our gross national product continues to expand, and bonds have not expanded much relative to our output. ”

In later generations, the debt of the US imperialists was higher than the gross national value, and the debt of Japan was two and a half times the gross national value.

China's deficit is only 50 billion, the gross national product is 46 billion, 1.1 times, and the debt of the United States after World War II has reached more than 200 billion, and I don't see what happened to the United States.

But in Zhang Jiaao's view, it is difficult to accept.

Because what he is worried about is not this: "I am not worried about whether the government can afford to pay back the money, I am worried about inflation, which has nothing to do with the amount of money and the lack of money, the government's 20,000 tons of gold are enough to guarantee the repayment of debts, but the money flowing into the market will cause inflation, the money has become worthless, and the money in the hands of the people is a piece of waste paper." And then if they come to exchange for gold, not to mention 20,000 tons, 200,000 tons is not enough. ”

1 billion gold yuan bonds are exactly 1,000 tons of gold, 100 billion gold yuan bonds are 100,000 tons, 100 billion taels is 200 billion gold yuan, 200,000 tons of gold, obviously 100 billion taels of currency into the market is impossible to cope with the run, hyperinflation is always accompanied by a run, then the collapse of the monetary system, and then the collapse of the entire economy.

Yang Chao is how crazy gold mining, and absolutely unable to cope with the speed of economic expansion, human beings want to ask for gold to restrict the economy, only to take the credit standard, completely abandon the gold standard a road, but this era has obviously not come to that point, no country will attach its monetary policy to another national system, the United States imperialism after World War II is not to establish the hegemony of the dollar through gold, Yang Chao is to replace the United States imperialism, with gold dollars to replace the dollar, so we must adhere to the gold standard, Knowing that the whole world is accustomed to the gold dollar system, and then decoupling from gold, at that time the world economy is already inseparable from the gold dollar settlement, even if you want to give up the reserve gold dollar, you can't do it.

So he had to stick to the gold standard for at least ten years or more.

As for dealing with the run: "The government can authorize the central bank to forgo the exchange of gold if necessary. Gold is only used for foreign exchange settlement, and is only exchanged for foreign exchange, not for internal exchange. ”

In the most urgent case, Yang Chao will follow the example of the United States, which prohibits his own citizens from exchanging gold, but still maintains the gold content of the gold dollar internationally.

Of course, this is only the most urgent situation, and the current situation is not so bad, who will be okay to exchange money for gold.

But maintaining the gold standard is a belief of financiers in this era, and Zhang is proud that China is now the only major country that adheres to the gold standard, and he is willing to maintain it for a century if possible.

"Well, we can encourage saving money and raise the interest rate on deposits. Raise the interest rate on bonds and issue more small bonds. ”

China's bonds are different from Germany's, although there are also a wide variety of bond types, such as the reconstruction bonds issued by the National Reconstruction and Development Office, treasury bonds, but the nature is the same, in fact, they are all national debts, there are no restrictions, you can sell them at any time, and the central bank can discount them at any time.

Moreover, Yang Chao had previously disagreed with a policy of high interest rates, which he believed would suck investment money into banks, creating a situation in the United States where private investment continued to shrink while the country struggled to maintain employment.

But now that the inflationary pressure is greater than everything, Yang Chao can be regarded as understanding, why the United States is doing this, it is not that American economists cannot see this, but that they have to do it as a last resort, once Roosevelt tightens the deficit, the United States will immediately have an economic crisis, and it is difficult to advance or retreat.

Zhang Jiaao was authorized to raise interest rates, and his mood eased a little, and he had the final say in monetary policy, but when Yang Chao took over this power when he became minister of economic emergency, he made him anxious, because he felt that he had lost control of China's economy.

But these are not enough, Yang Chao also has a big move.

"I also intend to allow the Great Southwest Hydropower Project to issue shares directly!"

"What!"

Zhang Jiaao really didn't expect it.

The Great Southwest Hydropower Project is the country's largest investment at present, totaling more than 5 billion taels, which is only direct investment, which involves higher intangible value, such as ordinary commercial capital is impossible to get the support of local governments, unable to obtain the power of river development, the power of land acquisition, etc., the power hidden behind the money, is likely to be much higher than the amount of investment.

Yang Chao's move not only directly marketized government investment, but also capitalized state power and natural resources.

"I think the value of hydropower resources in the southwest will definitely not be smaller than the railway company, the highest share price of the railway company has exceeded 20 billion taels, and the hydropower in the southwest should have at least 50 billion. Among them, the government investment, local government authorization, and the value of natural resources themselves are estimated at 10 billion, so the government will occupy one-fifth of the equity. It will absorb 40 billion taels of funds from the market, which will at least greatly solve the current inflation trend. ”

Zhang Jiaao was shocked, but felt that this plan was very feasible.

Yang Chao said: "Not only the Great Southwest Hydropower, but also the Bohai Bay Tunnel, the Jiangxi-Guangdong Canal, and the Grand Canal can all be listed in this way, and they are not only sold on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, but directly to the whole country and the people across the country." Any state project that can be profitable, or has the potential to be profitable, can be sold to the people. The role of the government is to do what ordinary people and commercial capital cannot do, but the economic problem is ultimately left to the economy. ”

Yang Chao's statement is very much in line with the view of Westerners, that is, the government is because individuals cannot do certain things, so it cedes part of its power to form an entity, which is the government.

Zhang Jiaao found that in this way, it is possible to directly convert government investment into national investment, which is indeed a good idea, and if it goes well, it will completely solve the threat of inflation. (To be continued.) )