Section 85 Great Power Strategy

Xie Lunhui is a leading figure in Shanghai's money industry, and he is naturally a good speaker among the Chinese, and he also has a very high status among foreigners, and he was elected as a member of the Shanghai Commercial Conference Office, and he usually participates in various meetings with foreigner banks. Pen "Fun" Pavilion www.biquge.info

In Shanghai, although the foreigners' banks are very powerful, their operations are also very mature. However, it is the Chinese banks that are really involved in all aspects of business, because of the wide participation, foreign banks even have to rely on these large numbers of banks to conduct business.

It can be said that the foreigner bank is equivalent to the central bank, and the Chinese money bank plays the role of local branches, and the exchange business from Shanghai to Suzhou and Hangzhou and other inland areas are all in the hands of the Chinese.

Because of the advantage of status and the union of the money industry, Xie Lunhui can even occasionally bully the foreigner bank.

For example, in order to protect the rights and interests of small capital, Xie Lunhui operated the Beishi Money Industry Association and stipulated: "If the bank notes expire and collect them by themselves, they can pay the silver of their peers on the same day and remit them to each other; If a foreign bank comes to collect it, it will have to be cashed out, so it will be delayed for another day." At the meeting, Xie Lunhui argued on the basis of reason, saying that "outsiders are not allowed to interfere in the articles of association of the money industry, and whether or not the banker's ticket is granted or not is in the hands of the foreign businessman." Then he immediately left the meeting to resign.

It is precisely because of his high status in Shanghai's money industry and Chinese and foreign circles that Xie Lunhui is equivalent to a figure who stands at the core of Shanghai's financial industry, and through him to handle a bank, it is easy to squeeze into the circle of Shanghai's banking industry.

Yang Chao and Xie Lunhui agreed to open three banks in Shanghai, Yantai and Tianjin, with Shanghai as the head office, and to develop in the direction of Guangzhou and Wuhan depending on the situation. The main business is foreign exchange, because the risk of exchange is the lowest, if you can persuade the imperial court to exchange the tax from the bank, then it is equivalent to a long-term lucrative business.

It's just that the imperial court pays taxes, the local government relies on various money banks, and after arriving in Shanghai, it relies on the China International Commercial Bank, and Yang Chao estimates that he has no chance to grab it.

Moreover, the reason why Yang Chao chose foreign exchange is to accumulate the bank's credit first, and it is very suitable to do this kind of low-risk business, otherwise he can do a lucrative loan business.

As long as Yang Chao's bank can operate normally before the railway is put into operation, and then he can help the railway to accommodate the first amount of funds when the railway opens.

Yang Chao did not hide these things from Xie Lunhui.

"It is indeed very expensive to build a railway, and it is not a bank that can be contracted by foreigners to build a railway. However, Shanghai's money industry should not be underestimated, why don't you issue bonds in Shanghai, and I think my Shanghai colleagues are also willing to support the Chinese people to build railways. ”

It is almost impossible to say that it cannot be done without issuing bonds, and the largest bill transaction on Wall Street is railway bonds, and it is the state bonds.

With the introduction of the financial industry of the great powers, Shanghai also gave birth to stock exchanges and other institutions, and more than one, very crazy, with Morgan before the Wall Street of the same virtue, there is no order, all kinds of small exchanges, all kinds of leather bag companies indiscriminately issue stocks, financial fraud is numerous.

Yang Chao shook his head and said: "This railway official tries to run it by the countrymen, and does not want to get a taste of foreigners. ”

Xie Lunhui said: "The villain understands. However, the villain promised that if it was a bond of the Yanji Railway, my North City Money Industry was willing to undertake it and would never sell one or two bonds to foreigners. ”

Yang Chao said with a smile: "If you want to borrow, it costs a lot." ”

Xie Lunhui said: "I don't know how much Lord Yang needs?" ”

Yang Chao said with a smile: "As for the railway, the money for the construction is enough, but there is still a lack of operating funds, and I plan to raise 10 million taels in the future." ”

"Ten million taels!"

Xie Lunhui was finally surprised: "I'm afraid that the operation won't be able to use as much silver." ”

Yang Chao smiled and said his thoughts, the 10 million taels of silver was used as the capital of the railway company, which he promised the engineers, and not a single cent should be missing, as for the use of it, it is difficult to say.

In this case, you may not be able to move it normally, and you can still deposit it in the bank. Then the money we are waiting for will not have to go out of the treasury. The money industry in Beishi should still be able to eat. ”

Xie Lunhui thought for a while.

"That's good. It was all entrusted to Mr. Xie. ”

For the financier Yang Chao of this era, he still trusts, the Xie family is a big family, a big family, not afraid of him running, the real danger is those foreign adventurers who come to China alone, and those guys who open a leather bag company.

During the period when Xie Lunhui was preparing to set up the bank, the international situation was still a little tense, and the focus of tension was in the east, in China, in the northeast of China.

Under the pressure of the Great Powers, especially the British, who did not hesitate to abandon their isolationism and condescend to form an alliance with Japan, a country that was not yet internationally recognized, against Russia, the Russians finally compromised, and on April 8, 1902, the Tsarist Government and the Chinese Government signed the Treaty of Settlement of the Three Eastern Provinces, agreeing to withdraw troops in three phases, which would be completed in one and a half years.

But the Russians were not reconciled, and on March 12, 1902, Russia and France issued a proclamation in Petersburg, declaring that they reserved the freedom of their freedom of action in the event of future changes in the Far East or China in order to protect their interests. After expanding the Franco-Russian alliance to the East, the Russians slowly began to change their policy. In particular, after the Tsar received assurances from the German government that it supported their expansion in the East, it became increasingly difficult to bear the pressure of the British.

In May 1903, the Tsar reversed the compromise attitude of the moderate Chancellor of the Exchequer on Far Eastern affairs, adopted the advice of the Imperial Chancellor Bezobrazov, and began to pursue a policy of expansion, challenging the Anglo-Japanese alliance head-on. In August 1903, Russia brazenly established the Far Eastern Governorate with Arthur as the center, appointed Alekseev as the governor-general, and then reoccupied Mukden.

At the same time, Russia began to create an atmosphere of war at home, mobilized its propaganda machine to trumpet public opinion such as "bloodshed and sacrifice" and "defense of the motherland," and put on a posture of not hesitating to fight for the northeast.

The Russo-Japanese War was already inevitable.

In other words, the Russo-Japanese War was already doomed when the Japanese signed an alliance treaty with the British.

Japan's patriarch Ito Hirobumi did not approve of an alliance with the British at first, believing that it would drag Japan into a conflict between major powers, but Ito Hirobumi saw very clearly that the British just wanted the Japanese to be thugs, and he was not so stupid and fought for the British in vain.

So before the alliance, Ito Hirobumi went to Moscow, but the Russians were very arrogant, and no one received Ito Hirobumi at all, and he was thrown in a dilapidated hotel for a month, and then they met casually.

Ito Hirobumi asked if Japan could recognize and respect the status quo of the Russians in Tohoku in exchange for the Russians giving up their power in Korea, and the Russians replied very simply, "No," Ito Hirobumi could only sigh and stop opposing it, but instead support an alliance with the British.

At this time, war is inevitable, because the Japanese and the Russians are the two hungriest wolves in the world in this era, and the Northeast is a piece of fat that the whole world is red to, and such fat is placed between the two hungry wolves and triggers a fight, which is simply certain.

It's just that if the Russians had been able to compromise for a point or two, the Russo-Japanese War would not have happened at this time.

So the war of 1904-1905 was actually a war that could have been avoided or postponed.

At the same time, there is a deep economic problem behind this war, that is, an economic crisis that has spread all over the world.

The crisis began in Russia, which had seen one of the most impressive upsurges in the history of capitalism, beginning in 1892-1893, with 22,600 kilometers of railways laid in the decade from 1890 to 1900. Coal in the Donbass, oil in Baku, and metallurgy in the south have all had a wave of rapid growth. Russia surpasses France in the fourth largest producer of pig iron and steel in the world, and the length of the railway line is second only to the United States.

However, Russia's development was carried out mainly by foreign capital and imported machinery and railroad tracks. In 1890, foreign capital accounted for about 25 per cent of the total share capital, and by 1900 it accounted for more than 40 per cent. The main investors were, in order, France, Belgium, and Germany, and Russia can be said to be the capital colony of these countries. This wave of growth in Russia has led to frenzied speculation, indiscriminate corporate setups, inflated prospects, and the issuance of stocks and bonds at high premiums.

In the summer of 1899, a financial crisis swept through Russia, and industrial production was in crisis, which soon began to spread, beginning with countries with which Russia had close economic ties.

France, Germany, and Belgium, the countries with the largest investment in Russia, were the first to be affected, followed by the United Kingdom. Finally, the crisis in the United States also broke out, and the severity was the worst. During the crisis, U.S. pig iron production fell by 8.4 percent, steel production fell by 7.3 percent, railroad construction fell by 36.4 percent, locomotive production fell by 33.2 percent, unemployment was as high as 10.1 percent, and wages were reduced by 10 to 20 percent. In the end, Japan was embroiled in the crisis.

This economic crisis is the largest world economic crisis in history, so the whole world is in a panic, these countries that have a lot of investment in Russia, have withdrawn their investments, and Russia, which is too expanding economically, has fallen into a quagmire, causing the Russians to break out of the crisis at the earliest, but the latest to get out, this is the price of economic colonization, because you can't be autonomous.

In Russia, where no solution to the economic crisis had been found, various social contradictions had erupted, workers' organizations had been set up, demanding all kinds of powers, a five-day, eight-hour workday, a social welfare system, and so on. So the Russian government came up with a crooked idea, and they even thought of using war to divert attention and resolve the economic crisis.

Japan is the same, the country is small and the people are poor, the market is narrow, they relied on the reparations of the Sino-Japanese War, but also broke out the first wave of industrial development, basically completed industrialization in the textile industry, became a pure exporter of cotton textiles, and got rid of the impact of British and American textiles.

However, the outbreak was too violent, and the economic crisis was so severe that the Japanese could not find a good way to solve it, so they could only push the crisis to the point that there was no market, and planned to resolve the economic crisis by monopolizing Korea and entering the Tohoku market through war.

The third reason is the Korean issue, originally Japan defeated the Qing government, and in their hearts they already regarded Korea as their spoils, but the Russians did not agree to their annexation of Korea, which was equivalent to making the First Sino-Japanese War of the Japanese in vain, and the Japanese also had a lot of ideas about the Northeast.

However, Japan believes that it is no match for the Russians, so they can only forbear, and their ambitions at this time have not yet reached the level of competing with Russia for the northeast, and what the Japanese hope most is to divide the sphere of influence with Russia, and they hope that after Russia occupies the northeast, it will not continue to go south and infringe on the interests of Korea.

However, the Russians were not greedy enough, and they did not even want to let Korea go, so they looked down on the Japanese at all, and turned a deaf ear to Japan's proposal that Russia should occupy Northeast China and Japan should occupy Korea, and instead actively infiltrated Korea.

After the First Sino-Japanese War, the Japanese dominated Korea, excavated various privileges for building railways and mining mines, and stationed a large number of troops, staged a coup d'Γ©tat, invaded the imperial palace, and killed the Korean 'Cixi' Concubine Min.

King Li Xi fled into the Russian palace in fear, the Russians escorted the Korean king home, also signed a treaty with Korea, and had the power to garrison troops in Seoul, Pusan, and Wonsan, and the Russians almost replaced the position of the Qing government in Korea, and had the same privileges as the Japanese, which was equivalent to the Japanese fighting in vain in the Sino-Japanese War, defeating the Chinese and bringing a more greedy Russian.

How can the Japanese endure this?

In fact, it is said that the war between Japan and Russia started because of the northeast, but it is better to say that it came directly because of the Korean dispute, and it is possible to look at Shu because of Long, and only when the Japanese occupy Korea will they plot against the northeast, and of course it will cause disputes, but it has to be after the occupation of Korea, and now Korea cannot be saved, where do the Japanese have the heart to care about the northeast?

Therefore, the Russo-Japanese War was actually Russia forced the Japanese too hard, the Japanese were ambitious and bent on expansion, but they didn't want to be stuck by the Russians in the first step, and even Korea could not be invaded.

In the 30 years since the Restoration, Japan has been able to defeat the Qing government, and in the face of Russia, a behemoth with a territory more than 100 times its own, a population more than three times its own, an industrial strength of more than double, and a military strength of 10 times, Japan really has no confidence, so it suppresses its ambitions and realistically demands only the rights and interests of Korea.

The Russians will not even give up Korea, and in the case of occupying the fat of the northeast, they will not even leave the scum to the Japanese, and the robbers will have to fight among themselves if they do not share the spoils evenly, not to mention that they will not be able to share this situation. Japan's acceptance of the Russians' occupation of Northeast China in exchange for the Russians' agreement to their occupation of Korea was actually the most beneficial to Japan and Russia, and if it had been replaced by Germany and other Western powers, the Russians would have agreed long ago, but in exchange for Japan, the Russians would not have given an inch, and this contemptuous attitude was the root cause of the war.

Besides, at this time, the British stood up and said to the Japanese, him, Lao Tzu will help you in the back.

Japan, which is already red-eyed, how can it not roll up its sleeves.

Why did the British support Japan, later experts said that the British were afraid that the Russians would infringe on British interests in the Yangtze River, which is a bit too far-fetched.

Yang Chao has his own understanding, Yang Chao believes that the British anti-Russia should be due to the consistent policy of the maritime countries to block the mainland countries, and the British have always stood unconditionally on the weak side of the European continent, and absolutely cannot allow the mainland countries to dominate, and the British believe that once the mainland countries dominate the mainland, they will inevitably expand to the sea and infringe on the interests of the British.

The British once supported Prussia in fighting against France, Austria and Russia, the three most populous European countries at the time, and they still supported it even though they could not see any hope, and this was the policy of the British, which was a kind of far-sighted diplomacy and a great power strategy, rather than worrying that the Russians would cross most of China to infringe on their Yangtze River interests.

After becoming a world empire, the British's policy of equilibrium on the European continent was also extended to the whole world and became a world equilibrium policy.

They were not motivated by immediate interests, but by preventing the Russians from dominating the East Asian continent, and according to their methods in Europe, the best choice for the British was actually to support the Qing government against the Russians, but unfortunately the Qing government was really not angry and did not give the British a chance to choose. Let the British have to choose only Japan.

If you don't fight for yourself, you just want to be someone else's agent, and you're not qualified.

From a global perspective, the British encircled Russia, not only in China, but in all directions of Russia, almost in all directions, supporting Turkey against Russia in the Black Sea, Russia in Afghanistan, and of course continuing to contain Russia in the East.

After the British withdrew from world hegemony, the United States inherited this policy of encirclement, encircling Russia and encircling China, which is the continuation of this grand strategy.

This is the direct political game between the maritime hegemon and the continental power, a kind of unavoidable geopolitical contest, and it can even be said to be a kind of fate, as long as the two sides do not distinguish the winner or loser, this kind of encirclement and counter-encirclement will not end.

It's just that in the face of the grand strategy of the British, the Japanese can only act as a thug, even if they are not so reluctant, they must actively be this thug, and they are begging the British to let them be thugs, just like Prussia back then, with the strength of a small country, when they suddenly faced the siege of France, the Holy Roman Empire and the Russian Empire, the three most populous countries in Europe at that time, they were also eager to be the British's thugs to balance the continent, because once the British gave up on them, Without British financial support, they themselves would have perished.

The great power strategy of the maritime countries is to only the continental hegemonic state, and the continental hegemonic state has to maintain the continental power on the one hand, and on the other hand, it has to break through this encirclement, and the forces have to be dispersed, so it has failed again and again, Louis XIV has failed, Napoleon has failed, Tsar Alexander II has failed, Kaiser Wilhelm II has failed, and finally even Hitler has failed.

The era has come to the time of the United States, the United States blocked the Soviet Union and China, the Soviet Union has failed in a certain sense, Russia no longer has the strength to challenge the United States imperialism, Yang Chao does not know whether China can successfully break through.

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