The Shu Han Empire is a miracle in human history, and it is still talked about many years later.

It started from such a weak one - "abandoning Xinye, going to Fancheng, defeating the sun, running to Xiakou, and almost no place to stay", but in a few years, it achieved unprecedented strength, crossed Jingyi, and won Hanzhong, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the world.

It was the first country in history to stand in a corner of the country, but it claimed to represent the orthodoxy of the whole country. Even today, there is a region in China that is replicating this practice.

The most amazing thing about it is that it is an empire drawn on a drawing and then built step by step, this drawing is called "Longzhong Pair".

Today's scholars generally believe that the main content of the "Longzhong pair" is generally true, because Chen Shou, the author of "Three Kingdoms", mentioned this "Longzhong pair" more than once. This magical dialogue has also become the text of "Romance of the Three Kingdoms", Zhuge Liang has also become the protagonist of the book, and the story before Sangu has become a foreshadowing for his appearance.

The "great" Shu Han Empire reached its peak around the twentieth year of Jian'an (215 AD), not only realizing Zhuge Liang's blueprint eight years earlier, spanning Jingzhou and Yizhou, but also capturing Hanzhong in one fell swoop, and shooting Cao Cao's two front teeth in the decisive battle with Cao Cao, and the northern regime has since completely lost the ability to unify China.

However, the good times did not last long, 2 years later, Guan Yu sent troops to Wan and Luo, and Fan Cheng could not be captured for a long time, and was attacked by Lu Meng to take Jingzhou. In order to continue to cross Jing and Yi, Liu Bei sent out his army to crusade against Wu State, defeated Yiting, and died of illness. Since then, the Shu Han regime has been in a corner of peace, although after Zhuge Liang's six out of Qishan, Jiang Wei has made many northern expeditions to the Central Plains, and finally ended up fruitless and died trapped in the land of Shuzhong.

Walking Maicheng, Bai Di Tuogu, Wuzhang Yuan, which later became a classic plot of the drama, made countless talented people sigh and die, and make things happen in the sky. However, if we carefully read the history of the Shu Han Empire, especially those details that we usually don't pay attention to, we will find that in fact, the final outcome of the Shu Han Empire was already doomed from the day Liu Bei met Zhuge Liang and then "like a fish in water".

"Longzhong pair" has been criticized by countless people, some say that it is impossible to cross Jingyi because of geographical reasons, and some say that "Longzhong pair" ignores the interests of Sun Quan, Sun Wu has a narrow geography, east of the sea, the most should expand to the west, Jingzhou will inevitably be contested, and so on.

These statements are all reasonable, and they can be seen from the limitations of Liu Bei's later campaign against Yiling. The reason why he joined forces for 100 miles was because the waterway was difficult to travel and the land route was dangerous. Crossing Jing and Yi fundamentally depends on the stability of Jingzhou's base camp, and once there is a problem in Jingzhou, it is impossible to quickly reverse Jingzhou's defeat by sending troops from Yizhou.

The leaders of the Sun-Liu alliance against Cao were Zhou Yu and Lu Su, and it was basically a strategic need to realize Sun Wu. The Zhuge brothers must know this for a long time in Jingzhou. Zhou Yu and Sun Ce had long established the idea of seizing Jingzhou and then westward to Yizhou. If it weren't for Zhou Yu's untimely death, Sun Wu would probably have captured Yizhou before Liu Bei, all of which were planned in Zhou Yu's blueprint for Sun Quan's hegemony.

After Chibi, Jingzhou was divided by three families. Nanjun and Nanyang were divided by Cao Cao, Liu Bei captured the four counties of Changsha, and Sun Quan occupied Jiangxia. Later, Zhou Yu successfully captured Nanjun and took control of the lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Before Zhou Yu's death, Sun Quan also tried to expand northward, taking the strategy of Huaisi and Hefei, but was defeated by Zhang Liao, and later they basically gave up expanding northward. After Zhou Yu's death, Sun Quan was afraid that the Sun-Liu alliance would break down after Liu Bei grew stronger, so he took the initiative to lend Jingzhou to Liu Bei, which was the fundamental place for the rise of the Shu Han Empire.

These two points are obviously not the fundamental defects of the "Longzhong pair". The most fundamental flaw of "Longzhong" is that it ignores Liu Bei's most important political capital: helping the Han and eliminating thieves, and believing in the righteousness of the world.

Before Zhuge Liang appeared, the history of the Three Kingdoms was basically "Cao Liu Dou". First, Cao Cao beat Xuzhou to avenge his father, Liu Bei and Kong Rong rescued Tao Qian, and later gave up because Lu Bu attacked Yanzhou. This time it was Liu Shengcao's defeat. After Liu Bei took in Lü Bu, Cao and Liu jointly fought Yuan Shu, and after the victory, Cao Cao separated Lü Bu and Liu Bei, captured Xuzhou, removed Lü Bu, and abducted Liu Bei to Xu Capital to take care of him. This was the second Battle of Xuzhou.

Later, Liu Bei escaped from Xudu under the banner of destroying Yuan's art, and after destroying Yuan, he returned to Xuzhou to earn money and cut off the car. Cao Liu fought Xuzhou again, Liu Bei fled to Yuan Shao after his defeat, and Guan Yu surrendered to Cao Cao. Before Guandu, Guan Yu rebelled against Cao Cao and fled Hebei with Liu Bei to Liu Biao. After Cao Cao destroyed the Yuan family, he went south to Jingzhou and drove Liu Bei away in a hurry.

Liu Bei was defeated so badly, but he has always been the most important force in the north outside of Cao Cao, the fundamental reason is that he helped Tao Qian to defeat Cao Cao, won the support of the Xuzhou group, and he was familiar with the classics, Corporal Lixian, and was supported by the scholars (and even some scholar warlords Zhang Miao and Zang Hong). Later, Liu Bei successfully became the pastor of Yuzhou, and he was also jointly elected by the Shidafu Group.

Liu Bei Kang Cao repeatedly mentioned the edict of the cloth belt, no matter whether this matter is true or not, at least in the eyes of the world, Liu Bei's image as a minister who fights against usurpation and helps Han and beg thieves is unshakable. This was also the key to his later support from many scholars in Jingzhou. With the support of Xuzhou and Jingzhou Group, Liu Bei's political identity was undoubtedly established, and he must continue to resist Cao, unite all anti-Cao forces, and become the leader of the anti-Cao alliance.

As a hegemonic strategy, "Longzhong Pair" must be seamless, but as a blueprint for the achievement of the imperial industry, the biggest flaw is that it has not done enough in terms of political legitimacy. First of all, in terms of implementation steps, Jingzhou and Yizhou are under the control of the descendants of the Liu royal family, and if you want to cross Jingzhou and Yizhou, the key is how to receive them reasonably and avoid violent seizure. Second, on the B side, how to maintain all the anti-Cao forces and unite around himself. Third, on the C-side, how to keep the scholars in their hearts and their own image of resisting Cao will not be extinguished.

However, in the process of history developing step by step according to the blueprint of "Longzhong Pair", these three things went wrong one after another, planting the seeds of destruction one after another for the final settlement of Shu Han.

In 211 AD, after winning the four counties of Changsha and gaining a firm foothold, Liu Bei finally ushered in the dawn of hegemony. Cao Cao defeated the Liangzhou Group, and Ma Chao defected to Zhang Lu. Liu Zhang was afraid that Zhang Lu would attack him, and sent Fa Zheng to welcome Liu Bei to Shuzhong to fight against Zhang Lu's group.

Liu Bei was actually in a dilemma at this time, not only was he not fully prepared, but there were many internal contradictions in the Sun-Liu Alliance, and they had not yet been resolved. At this time of great difficulty, he was persuaded by Pang Tong and Fa Zheng to lead his troops to Yizhou.

But then, he made one bad move after another, ruining his great future.

He first stayed in Jiamengguan and did not enter, neither beat Zhang Lu, nor returned to Jingzhou. Immediately afterwards, Zhang Song and Fa Zheng's conspiracy to "abolish Zhang Yingbei" was revealed, and Zhang Song was killed by Liu Zhang. Liu Bei turned back to attack Yizhou, and after Pang Tonggong's death, he finally ushered in the surrender of Yizhou.

Immediately afterwards, he abolished Liu Zhang and sent Liu Zhang to the public security.

After these two steps, on the surface, he got Yizhou, but in fact, the tragedy began.

First of all, Sun Quan felt that there was a major crisis in the Sun-Liu Alliance, and Liu Bei's power surpassed him for the first time. And Liu Zhang's fate also made Sun Quan see through the essence of Liu Bei, on the surface, he was talking about ideals, but behind his back, he was seizing power for himself, and he didn't care about the life and death of his allies.

Second, the Yizhou Group felt that Liu Bei was treacherous, and most of the people went along with it on the surface and dismantled it behind their backs. At this time, a group of Yizhou people such as Zhang Yu and Qian Zhou began to spread all kinds of rumors, saying that the Han Dynasty would eventually belong to Cao. Fa Zheng was originally not an important minister in Yizhou, but because he welcomed Liu Bei, in order to consolidate his position, he began to suppress political dissidents.

Third, in order to seize Yizhou, he took away almost all the political forces of the Jingzhou and Xuzhou groups, and also extorted a handful of money in Jingzhou, damaging the local popular base. What's even more terrifying is that he also left a short-tempered Guan Yu who commanded the soldiers and comrades-in-arms to guard the backyard.

Cao Cao destroyed Zhang Lu, Ma Chao defected to Liu Bei, and Liu Bei led his troops north to capture Hanzhong. At this time, in order to stabilize the Yizhou Group and the newly attached Ma Chao, Liu Bei announced that he would be the king of Hanzhong, and added officials to the newly attached Yizhou Group and the original Xuzhou and Jingzhou groups.

This step is still reasonable in Liu Bei's opinion, because if he doesn't do this, it is impossible to quickly stabilize Bashu, but this step has also completely turned him, the leader of the anti-Cao League, into a careerist.

Cao Cao's usurpation of the Han Dynasty was precisely designed, and the destruction of the second Yuan restored the prime minister system, and the Liangzhou group was called the Duke of Wei, and the Ping Han was called the King of Wei. Every time there is a military merit as a foundation. However, Liu Bei was called the king of Hanzhong this time, and he was elected by Ma Chao and others, and the basis of force was average. What's more, he didn't get Sun Quan's support, and he didn't take advantage of Liu Zhang, who was under his control. These two princes did not support it, and Liu Bei's king of Hanzhong was considered self-proclaimed.

Especially from Sun Quan's point of view, Liu Bei is called the king, and as a captive general, he is shorter than Liu Bei, rather than succumbing to Liu Bei, it is better to belong to the Han Dynasty on the surface, but in fact he is allied with Cao Cao, and he is not subordinate to any king. (Of course, Sun Quan also tested Guan Yu's attitude and wanted to marry Guan Yu, but was scolded by Guan Yu)

In this way, Cao Cao and Sun Quan secretly became allies. Cao Cao faced Guan Yu, who was invincible in the flooded Seventh Army, and watched Pang De and Yu Ban defeat miserably, just to drag Guan Yu, show favor to Sun Quan, and wait for him to attack Jingzhou. Sun Quan naturally understood this, withdrew the Northern Expeditionary Army still in Hefei, and instead sent Lü Meng to secretly capture Jingzhou.

Guan Yu's old grudges accumulated over the years made an army that returned from victory, and fewer and fewer people ran along the way, and finally a few people were left to defeat Maicheng. There were apparently also attacks by Jingzhou natives along the road. Liu Feng is not Liu Bei's own son, and he can't be the prince, but he won't surrender to Cao Cao because of this, in addition to being fed up with Guan Yu, coupled with the civil strife in Jingzhou, seeing that the general trend has gone, first seek self-preservation, what other explanation can there be?

A year after Guan Yu's death, there was no movement on Liu Bei's side, as if time had stood still. In the middle of the year, Cao Cao couldn't wait to die first, and Cao Pi abolished the Han Dynasty and became emperor. Sun Quan and Cao Pi, who were extremely anxious, finally saw a big surprise news after waiting for a year: Liu Bei was also proclaimed emperor.

What did Liu Bei think?

In Liu Bei's view, the Cao family is a powerful minister and a relative, and Cao Pi usurped the Han Dynasty as Wang Mang's second. Liu Bei is a clan surnamed Liu, so he should learn from Liu Xiu to be the emperor. But there's a big difference here, and it's even a tiger dog:

When Liu Xiu became emperor, Emperor Ping of Han was already dead, and Liu Xiu was jointly elected by princes from all over the country. What about Liu Bei? Except for Ma Chao, who is considered a prince, Sun Quan and Liu Zhang do not support him, and he writes, directs and acts by himself.

This is obviously a bad move, because Liu Bei's community supports him because he is the leader of the anti-Cao Alliance, and now that Emperor Han Xian is still alive, he himself is the emperor, and in essence he is no different from Cao Pi.

The decision to become emperor must be extremely difficult for Liu Bei's group, otherwise it would be impossible to be inactive for a whole year after Guan Yu's death, and Sun Quan was so anxious that he was on pins and needles.

The price of Liu Bei's claim to be emperor is that from now on, it is impossible for the scholars in the north to support him, and the scholars in Jingzhou originally only hated Guan Yu, and now they have no feelings for Liu Bei. Liu Bei attacked Sun Quan under the banner of rebellion (crusade against Sun Quan, who attached Cao Wei), and the joint camp was more than 700 miles, and the last fire burned out.

Liu Bei's tossing and turning also completely ruined Sun Quan's political future. Sun Quan was originally the leader of the Sun-Liu Alliance, but he surrendered to Cao Wei in the middle, and later rebelled against Cao Wei and Shu Han to form an alliance. Only then did it reluctantly establish the pattern of three parts of the world.

Liu Bei's launching of the Battle of Yiling cannot be regarded as a desperate gamble. Because under the circumstances at that time, Cao Wei could not be beaten, so he could only beat Cao Wei's ally Sun Quan. Even if he can't destroy Sun Quan, at least he can force him to restore the Sun-Liu Alliance.

But he never expected that his foundation in Jingzhou was so poor, and the Battle of Yiling lost the largest part of his main force. At the time of Zigui, Liu Bei learned from the pain, and Zhuge Liang actually re-established the way of survival of Shu Han in the future: whether it is possible or not, it is necessary to go on a northern expedition, otherwise it will also be trapped in Shuzhong. If Liu Chan's ability is not good, Zhuge Liang will have to insist on the Northern Expedition, and even replace him as a last resort.

Many people say that Liu Bei is testing Zhuge Liang. In fact, after carefully pondering the bitterness, what Liu Bei said may be true.

At that time, Liu Bei couldn't care about the great cause of the world, and it was already good for his team to survive. At the time of Liu Bei's orphanage, Yizhou was already full of smoke, and rebellions continued in various places. After Liu Bei's death, Hua Xin and Wang Lang wrote letters to Zhuge Liang, persuading him not to resist stubbornly.

In Yizhou, there is also a political rumor: Liu Bei's two sons, Liu Feng and Liu Chan, imply that Feng Chan is the emperor. Now Liu Feng was beheaded because he saw Guan Yu die and did not save him, and Feng Chan was only left with "Zen". Qian Zhou and a group of Yizhou scholars began to make up stories, the father is called Bei, and the son is called Zen, isn't this "ready for Zen" (with and taught)? Dahan is over.

The Northern Expedition is the only possibility for the Shu Han group to survive, no matter how successful the Northern Expedition can be, but every time the banner of righteousness is raised, at least the people of the Central Plains will not forget the Han Dynasty. The Shu Han regime was originally far away from the Central Plains, and if it was forgotten again, it would be similar to that of an ethnic minority.

As a last resort, Zhuge Liang first restored the Sun-Liu Alliance, and at a very heavy price. Needless to say, giving up Jingzhou, more importantly, to restore the Sun-Liu alliance, Sun Quan must declare Cao Wei a puppet regime, and for him, a strong enemy is fed, and he has no choice but to be emperor. As a result, Sun Quan also became emperor soon after.

Sun Quan was called emperor, and Shu Han encountered a big problem in legitimacy, because the legitimacy of Shu Han's regime determined that whoever claimed the emperor was a usurper, and he should crusade against whom. Later, there was always a debate about Sun Quan's claim to be emperor, and Shu generally turned a blind eye, so there were Zhang Wen and Qin Mi talking about the way of heaven. Because Sun Quan's throne was not emphasized in Shuzhong, Zhang Wen was later dismissed by Sun Quan and severely punished.

From the very beginning, the Northern Expedition was destined to be a last resort, with only political significance, not strategic significance. This is in stark contrast to the "cross-border" that has only strategic significance and no political significance in the past 10 years. The Shuhan Group, which finally learned a lesson, tried to make amends at this time, but it was too late.

Without the foundation of "crossing the fundamental place of Jingyi", the last two steps of the "Longzhong pair" will not be realized. "Longzhong said" very clearly: "When there is a change in the world, you can order a general to go out of Wan and Luo, and the general will bring his own righteous army out of Qinchuan." Now I can't wait for the world to change, so I can only rush to the horse. Moreover, the army of Wan and Luo is definitely gone, so they can only go out of Qinchuan.

Zhuge Liang has been arguing with Wei Yan during the Northern Expedition, Wei Yan hopes to attack Chang'an from the Meridian Valley, but Zhuge Liang only dares to take the main road and slowly walk out of Qishan. Many people condemned Zhuge Liang for being too stable. However, the political pattern at that time, the hope of victory in the Northern Expedition was minimal, and the Yizhou Group was unconvinced, and later Li Yan continued to cause trouble for Zhuge Liang, which also proved this. Zhuge Liang must leave enough retreat for himself so that he can return to his division as soon as possible to quell the rebellion when there is a change in Yizhou.

Zhuge Liang is not narrow-minded, and many of the people mentioned in "The Teacher Table", such as Dong Yun, are rookies of the Yizhou Group, and even subordinates like Jiang Wei have also been reused by him. But with the aging of the Xuzhou Group, Zhuge Liang did not dare to hand over the power to the Yizhou Group, and could only rely on Jiang Wan and Fei Yi, who he developed from Jingzhou, to be his successors, and did not dare to let the Yizhou Group dominate.

The Shuhan Northern Expedition, like many Internet companies that have never been able to find a profit model today, can only use the banner of listing and round after round of financing, otherwise they can only watch the company shrink. It's a pity that Zhuge Liang didn't have the New Third Board and NASDAQ in that era, and there were not so many investors willing to play with him, so he could only die of exhaustion on the way to the Northern Expedition.

In 263 AD, Deng Ai and Zhong Hui divided their troops to destroy Shu. Deng Ai had a partial division and smuggled through Yinping, but Chengdu surrendered without much resistance. Jiang Wei was not far away, and he couldn't be saved. Later generations have always condemned the incompetence of the queen and re-Huang Hao; or scolded Jiang Wei for concentrating all his troops in the middle of the river, which was a dead move. But is that really the case?

There is a fundamental difference between Jiang Wei's Northern Expedition and Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition: Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition was to eliminate Han thieves, and when Jiang Wei's Northern Expedition occurred, Cao Wei had been passed down for three generations, and the overall situation of Sima's usurpation of Wei had been completed, and Cao Wei's rebellion was also under the banner of eliminating Wei thieves. Can Jiang Wei's slogan be "Xingwei and Jin"?

To put it bluntly, the concept of Shuhan, a listed company, that can be played, is outdated, and the end can only be delisting.

Jiang Wei's Northern Expedition lacked the minimum legitimacy and political significance, Jiang Wan and Fei Yi, who succeeded Zhuge Liang, had a deep understanding of this, and the proposal for Jiang Wei's Northern Expedition was always half-pushed and half-pushed, nor completely opposed, but it was not the kind of support of the whole country in the Zhuge Liang era.

Jiang Wei later felt bored and hid in the middle of the tuntian in case of an emergency. But he never expected that the original anti-Han forces in Shuzhong had quietly grown.

Qian Zhou, the strategist who said that the Han Dynasty finally ended with Chan Rang, slowly formed a unique force in the court. After Jiang Wan and Fei Yi, the old people of the Jingzhou Group, died one after another, they basically formed a dominant trend. When Deng Ai destroyed Shu, he handed over the country effortlessly, and the queen wanted to resist, but there was no way.

Han nationality, Han people, this concept is actually not completely from Emperor Wu of the Han Dynasty to fight the Xiongnu. Because later, when the Hun Liu Yuan destroyed the Jin Dynasty, the regime he established was also called "Han".

Shu Han is a magical being, he was the first regime in Chinese history to start a business basically on "concepts" and then maintain its long-term existence. Although this concept was slowly outdated at the time, this "concept" has since been successfully paid for by countless descendants.

This political legacy is to tell people that as long as there is a political star, plus a trader who can plan, plus a good concept, even if he cannot dominate the world, at least it is enough to be in a corner of peace and achieve hegemony.

[A very beautiful essay on Shu Han, I hope people who like Shu Han will like it]