"Oh? What would be the difference? Bismarck seemed to want to test Lin Yiqing's reasoning ability, and asked with interest.

"When the news of the landing failure comes back to China, it will certainly greatly damage the morale of the French army, and under the onslaught of the Prussian army, the French army will inevitably fail, and France will have to cede land to Prussia and pay reparations for peace." Lin Yiqing said the result of the Franco-Prussian War in the original historical time and space, "It's just that Prussia paid a great price of casualties, and at that time, you planned to negotiate peace with France on loose terms, but I am afraid that His Majesty the King and his generals will not agree." ”

Listening to Lin Yiqing's answer, Bismarck couldn't help but nod again and again.

The situation at that time was indeed as Lin Yiqing said, in the early days of the war, when the Prussian army was fierce, the French army was losing and retreating, and the war was completely one-sided, King Wilhelm and the generals started the idea of ceding French Alsace and Lorraine, and letting France pay a high indemnity of 5 billion gold francs, Bismarck opposed this at the time, believing that this would make France an enemy of Germany, but King Wilhelm and the Prussian army leaders left Bismarck aside this time and insisted on demanding "the rights that should be claimed as a victor" But in the end, as the war progressed, their wishful thinking did not become a reality.

"But as it turns out, you made the right decision." Lin Yiqing continued, "If Prussia really ceded land from France, such as Alsace and Lorraine, it would become a bitter fat piece of the future German Empire." ”

"Why do you say that?" Bismarck couldn't help but be surprised when he heard Lin Yiqing say the word "bitter fat", and immediately asked.

The mineral-rich Alsace-Lorraine, formerly part of the Holy Roman Empire, was ceded to France after the Thirty Years' War. Because of Alsace-Lorraine's rich minerals and important strategic location, the Prussian Junker officers were always eyeing each other.

"From the day of the establishment of the German Empire, France became the most destructive factor in the system of the German Imperial Alliance, seriously shackling Germany's strategic space." "If such an important territory were to be lost, Alsace-Lorraine would be like a knife to France's self-esteem and revenge every day. In that case, France would irretrievably become Germany's natural enemy. What's more, this natural enemy was so strong that Germany did not have enough strength to crush her permanently. ”

Listening to Lin Yiqing's words, Bismarck let out a heavy sigh.

Of course, he understood that Lin Yiqing was telling the truth.

The establishment of the Second German Empire not only ended the long-term feudal division of the German nation, but also completely changed the Vienna political system in Europe since the Napoleonic period.

Bismarck, who played a great role in the founding of the Second German Empire, became the chancellor of the Reich and presided over the diplomatic work of the Reich. It seems that he could still maneuver between the nations with his astonishingly sophisticated diplomatic skills: Austria-Hungary, Italy, and Russia were all included in the alliance with the German Empire; The encouragement of France's colonial wildness led to constant friction between France and Britain and Italy; Encourage Britain to resist Turkey's resistance to Russia and keep Britain neutral. This complex structure of the "Union System" made almost all of Europe in need of German mediation. Germany, the country that has undermined the political landscape of Europe, has instead become the guarantor and arbiter of peace in Europe.

Despite Bismarck's great efforts, in reality his ingenious "system of alliances" was being seriously damaged. The biggest reason is that the success of the "alliance system" depends not only on Germany's ability to maintain its power and position to balance the complex politics of Europe, but also on its ability to convince the rest of the world's powers that it is a country with no new territorial claims.

"You got the crux of the problem. Even if Germany could get Alsace and Lorraine, it would not make Germany strong enough to trample France under its feet. Bismarck said, "This is the dilemma that the German Empire has faced since it appeared in the world." ”

As Bismarck said, when the Second German Reich was first established, it was faced with a choice question: should it compete for world dominance or be honest?

After the successful defeat of France, and at a time when Germany was rapidly industrializing and bearing fruit, the nationalism of the German nation was on the rise. Although the Second German Reich itself was built and consolidated by the forces of the German nationalist movement, nationalism has always been a violent and capricious force, and it is very difficult to use it properly in politics. Moreover, German nationalism is different from French nationalism in that it has a broad extension and will never sit idly by and watch the German nation scattered in Eastern Europe reeling in the frenzy of "pan-Slavism". As a result, Germany could not accept the present situation and future of Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe for long, and it was inevitable that it would clash with Russia, the spokesman of the Slavic nation. This, in turn, will inevitably provoke a reaction from European countries such as France. Therefore, from this point of view, it is inevitable that Germany will clash with the two great powers of the European continent.

At the same time, the stimulus of victory in the war and the need for economic expansion put the picture of a world empire before all Germans. The victories of the past almost made the Germans think that it would be too cowardly to obtain what could be achieved by bloodshed but by sweat. Looking at the whole world, no country dares to wrestle with Germany on land. At the same time, a series of achievements made by Germany in the process of modernization, whether it is economic, scientific, ideological and cultural, have attracted the attention of the world, so that the Germans have reason to believe that they are superhuman: we Germans are afraid of no one but God!

But when they confidently rushed to the world arena, they were told: the game is over, at least the main part is over, and, as newcomers, the Germans must respect reality.

Germany, which is expanding violently economically, urgently needs a raw material base and a vast and fair market, but the existing world political structure cannot meet it. The rest of the game is fairer, of course, not to the satisfaction of the Germans, and it is its strong demand to start the game again, only then can Germany truly become the world power it wants, and only in this way can its nationalist aspirations be satisfied. To do so, it would be necessary to change the political landscape of Europe and the world, and frustratingly, it would be an almost impossible task.

First of all, France and Russia will not make Germany too strong. In the jungle world, no one likes to have a strong neighbor, let alone Germany, which is extremely aggressive and has the need for expansion.

Second, Britain, which has adhered to a policy of continental balancing for hundreds of years, does not want to see Germany dominate the European continent. It was undoubtedly very wise for the empire on which the sun never set, and it was undoubtedly very wise to strictly prohibit the integration of the European continent into a single country, and the eventual tragic fate of Napoleon also demonstrated Britain's determination and ability to pursue a policy of continental balance.

These countries are all super bosses in jungle games around the world, and it seems unrealistic to defeat them all.

It can be seen that the world empire, although tempting, is hopeless for Germany, and it is the right choice to be honest. Bismarck also saw this in order to exclude Austria from Germany, and hoped to use the "alliance system" to maintain the long-term stability of the empire after the war. His profound insight told him that not only Europe, but also the world could no longer tolerate a stronger Germany.

However, the tide of fierce nationalism and desperate economic needs repeatedly hit imperial policy, sending the empire swaying all the way to the point of no return for the world alone. In the face of this barbaric rush, Bismarck did not show the diplomatic genius one might imagine.

In order to confront France, Bismarck concluded a "bilateral alliance" with Austria-Hungary despite the strong opposition of Kaiser Wilhelm I, an agreement so "steel" that it was written into the constitutions of both empires at the same time. Germany finally reached out to Austria-Hungary, which was in danger of disintegration.

Bismarck did this out of fear that Austria, which was weakening day by day, would either collapse or fall to France under the pressure of the frenzy of "Pan-Slavism"; Second, Germany, which is rapidly industrializing, needs a base for agricultural products and a market for industrial products. Although Russia was more suitable in terms of size, Austria-Hungary, also a German nation, became the natural choice based on the judgment that no country would be under German influence for long.

But the consequences of this are also extremely serious. Because it shows Germany's ambition to seek hegemony in Central Europe, and makes the world no longer trust Germany to be honest. For all of Germany's neighbors, a united Germany with Austria is definitely a nightmare to wake up to as soon as possible.

At the same time, it also determines the inevitability of the collision of Germany and Russia in Eastern and Southeastern Europe. After that, the union of France and Russia became a clear trend, and an unfavorable pattern of two-front operations was initially formed.

Britain's traditional balance of power policy opposed to continental hegemony, coupled with Germany's competition with British industrial products, also made Britain's position increasingly dangerous.

Thus, the formation of an anti-German coalition that Bismarck had tried so hard to avoid began to be expected after this decision was made.

In fact, the establishment of the Second German Reich also depended on the "neutral neutrality of good faith" of the Russian Empire. The deterioration of German-Russian relations in the 80s of this century was politically due to the signing of a "bilateral alliance" between Germany and Austria, and economically due to Germany's agricultural protective tariffs and investment blockade against Russia.

The German Agricultural Protection Act, which came into force in January 9080, was almost exclusively aimed at Russia. The biggest reason for this was that Russia's relatively cheap agricultural products hit the Junkers in Prussia. This made the Junkers, who were already disgruntled with the Slavs, furious and demanded that the state use legal means to protect their interests.

Since the Crimean War, defeated Russia has learned the hard way and is determined to carry out political reforms and industrialization at the same time. The most important source of funds for industrialization was the export of agricultural products, and Germany's approach at this time would undoubtedly arouse Russia's hostility towards Germany.

Judging from the current situation, Lin Yiqing can already judge that Germany's posture of facing the two enemies of France and Russia on two fronts (two-front warfare) has been initially formed.

"It is true that this is the dilemma that the German Empire has faced since the day it was founded, but it is not impossible to get out of it." Lin Yiqing said.

"What's your solution?" Bismarck was shocked by Lin Yiqing's insight into the general situation in Europe and immediately asked.

"In your opinion, industrialized Russia is the biggest nightmare, and perhaps you intend to make the German capital market blockade of Russia. And for Russia now, the need for funds is massive. You know, if you do that, it will open the door for France, which has a big money bag on its ass, to find allies. Lin Yiqing did not give a direct answer, but reminded Bismarck from the side, "If France and Russia form an alliance because of this, the situation of the German Empire will be even more dangerous." ”

Bismarck's body leaned forward, and his gaze sharpened.

"You mean, an alliance between Germany and Russia?"

"Yes." Lin Yiqing nodded, "For Germany, only in this way can it prevent France and Russia from forming an alliance and attacking Germany on both sides." Another advantage of an alliance with Russia was that it would make Russia a huge base for the supply of German industrial raw materials and a huge base for the export of capital, and the closer the economic ties between the two countries, the less likely it would be that Russia would turn into Germany's enemy. ”

"But the Balkans......" Bismarck couldn't help but express his concerns.

Since the Balkan question would inevitably lead to a conflict between Austria-Hungary and Russia, the German-Austrian alliance concluded by Bismarck would inevitably lead to a conflict between Germany and Russia, which is why Wilhelm I strongly opposed the German-Austrian alliance.

For Russia, the Balkans cannot be ignored for the simple reason that they are religious, ethnic, historical, political, economic, and military.

Religiously, Orthodox Christianity is the state religion in Russia, and the people of most of the Slavic countries in the Balkans also believe in Orthodox Christianity. This kind of religious connection makes it inevitable that the confrontation between countries will have the background of "religious jihad". Under the enormous influence of religious ties, it was impossible for the tsarist government to turn its back on the dominant ideology in society and remain indifferent to the conflicts in the Balkans.

Ethnically, most of the Balkans were inhabited by Slavs, and Russia considered itself the protector of the Slavic peoples. The desire for national self-determination and independence in the region has risen to an all-time high following the unification of Germany and the establishment of a nation-state. The Slavs aspired to create their own nation-states. The rulers of the Balkan Slavs, Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire, were multi-ethnic. The complex national composition made a part of the Slavic nationalists in the Austro-Hungarian Empire naturally have a "sense of no mastery" - yearning for salvation from the Tsar; The same national sentiment was even more pronounced in the Ottoman Empire, which was considered to be under the harsh rule of the infidels. Such a national sentiment to liberate the countrymen, to act as spokesmen and defenders of the interests of the Balkan Slavs - and even to "annex" the region - inevitably gave rise to a strong impulse in Russia to force the tsarist government to intervene in Balkan affairs.

Historically, since the fall of the Byzantine Empire, successive tsars have emphasized their legitimacy as the true successors of the Roman emperors. A striking example of this is the vanity of the self-proclaimed "Third Rome", which has always been the goal pursued by the Russian rulers. This historical connection made it natural for an empire that could be traced back to its legitimacy by marriage to have a right to the Balkans, the birthplace of the Eastern Roman Empire. This ownership is even enough to extend to the Mediterranean and North African coasts. The nationalist sentiments that arose on the basis of such historical ties inevitably drove Russia to focus its attention on the Balkans.

From a political point of view, the relatively fragile structure of social stability made it necessary for the tsarist government to rely on the glory and fanaticism brought about by the implementation of a strong imperialist strategy abroad in order to relieve the enormous pressure of domestic contradictions on the survival of the regime. The renewed interest in the Balkans caused by the Russo-Turkish War, especially under the Treaty of San Stefano, inevitably made the region a sensitive issue in Russian political life.

From an economic point of view, the Balkans are adjacent to Russia's warm southern zone and industrial and agricultural centers, and more importantly, because of the winter freeze in Russia's northern gateway ports in the North Sea, the Baltic Sea, and the Sea of Japan, the permanent ice-free ports on the Black Sea coast are extremely important for the stability of the Russian economy. Through the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea, Russia will not only be able to strengthen economic and trade ties with France, Italy, and North Africa, but will also be able to make the passage through the Mediterranean-Suez Canal-Red Sea-Indian Ocean-Pacific Ocean of obvious economic and strategic significance.

From a strategic point of view, control of the Black Sea coast, especially the Bosphorus-Marmara-Dardanelles passage and the strategic access to the "warm sea", has been the established state policy of successive tsars since Peter the Great. To achieve this, Russia was at war not only with the Ottoman Empire many times, but also with Britain, France and other European powers. The unremitting efforts of centuries are enough to prove the importance of this region in Russia's national strategy. In fact, once this passage is obtained, it not only means that the threat from the Turks on Russia's southwestern flank will be completely lifted, but also that it will finally break through the political and economic restrictions imposed on Russia by the Baltic Sea "bathtub" surrounded by foreign powers, so that Russia will gain more freedom of action and strategic space.

Taken together, these factors made the Balkans inevitably a zone of Russia's core interests - a fact that has not fundamentally changed to this day. This determined the irreconcilability of the contradictions between Austria-Hungary and the Russian Empire, as well as the inevitability of this contradiction causing Germany to fall into strategic passivity. (To be continued.) )