Section 696 Control of raw material prices

Yangzi Automobile Skoda factory now has a production capacity of 1 million, still in short supply, you must know that the sales of American cars have fallen to the extent of 3 million, and the cheap cars consumed by Chinese plus various models of high-end cars, a total of 800,000 in the first half of this year, according to this momentum, three to five years can surpass the United States. Pen "Fun" Pavilion www.biquge.info

Why?

Because the people get too much money, a full-time worker has an annual income of at least 360 taels of silver, which is converted into US dollars that is 900 US dollars, and even exceeds the 30 cents hourly worker of the lowest-income worker in the United States, and an American textile female worker is more than 860 US dollars a year, while the Chinese only work, it is 900, the lowest.

How many people are in the United States, 130 million are dead, China has exceeded 600 million, per capita is more than the United States, the total number is more than the United States, even if the Chinese save more money and save thicker, the leakage point is much higher than the total consumption of the United States.

So cars have become a kind of durable consumer goods that ordinary people can afford, and now without a car, girls are not willing to marry you.

Yang Chao couldn't help but sigh that he still turned having a car into a mate selection criterion for his mother-in-law, but fortunately he did not promote the development of ordinary commodity real estate, otherwise he would have really become a friend of his mother-in-law.

The price increase of the single product of the car is nothing, the problem is that there are too many automobile-related industries, and as soon as the price of the car rises, steel, rubber, and electronic products all rise, which has led to another wave of general inflation.

The inflation of onions, ginger and garlic has been suppressed in the past two years, but the inflation of industrial products has risen, and the inflation of industrial products is often not easy to rise, because everything is easier to control, and production is relatively stable, neither as seasonal as agricultural products, nor less affected by natural climate.

However, once the inflation of industrial products rises, it will be more difficult to control, because very simply, the inflation of industrial products means that the structure is irrational and exceeds the tolerance of the industrial system, and the so-called supply-side reform must be carried out.

Zhang Jiaao's life was only a few days better, and he was anxious again, and he was a little confused.

"The soaring prices of steel and coal are the most important problems."

The automobile industry is the main reason why the price of steel is increasing, but the replacement of machinery and equipment, and orders for weapons from the Spanish Civil War have posed challenges to the supply of steel in the short term.

Before the Chinese economic crisis, steel production was 60 million tons, and now it has fully recovered to the level before the crisis, and the major steel companies are still expanding their factories, it can be said that production is not the biggest problem, the biggest problem is the problem of raw materials, China's steel raw materials mainly rely on imports.

Imports from Brazil, Australia and Siberia, which have been eager to boost exports during the economic crisis in recent years, have inevitably underestimated their production, and now China's increasing demand has only one result, which is to push up the price of iron ore from 25 cents a ton to 30 cents, and it is still growing.

Yang Chao has strong control over the iron ore industry in Brazil and Australia, but the control over the governments of these two countries is not absolute, especially Australia, has become wary of the number of Chinese in the Pilbara area, where there are now 400,000 Chinese, not only in the iron mining area to form a city, but also many miners' families, using the deep water wells in the mining area to drink, in the nearby large and small vegetable orchards, now the mining area of fruits and vegetables can be self-sufficient.

The transplantation of the entire Chinese society is difficult for the Australian racist government to accept, they have restricted the entry of immigrants, and stationed 10,000 Australian troops in import and export channels such as Port Hedland, strictly investigating smuggling, that is to say, 400,000 people here in the Pilbara is already the limit, it is impossible to increase the population, then there is no way to increase the number of workers, and it is impossible to increase production.

The Pilbara can only export 20 million tons of iron ore to China, which is used to produce more than 10 million tons of steel products, Brazil's exports were 30 million tons at the peak, but now there are only 20 million tons, plus more than 20 million tons in Siberia, it is only barely enough to meet the raw material supply of 60 million tons of steel production, and now these steel are suddenly insufficient, and can only be made up from the United States and India, and the price is naturally high.

The manufacturing of metal products such as automobiles has raised the price of steel, and the price of steel has driven up the price of iron ore, which is normal, but even the price of coal has begun to rise, which is indeed a bit surprising.

After analysis, Shanxi has built more than 100 large power plants, with an average installed capacity of 400,000 kilowatts, basically four 100,000 kilowatt units in the model, distributed in Datong, Yangquan and other places, with 300 thousand volt high-voltage power grid sent to Hebei, Henan, and even Shandong are using part of Shanxi's electricity.

The installed power capacity of more than 40 million kilowatts generates more than 150 billion kilowatts of electricity every year, and each kilowatt-hour consumes an average of half a kilogram of coal, and consumes more than 70 million tons of coal.

Although it is not yet saturated, and Shanxi's power plants and power grid have not met the design standards, the coal consumption has exceeded 50 million tons, and this increase has directly raised the price of coal.

"The price must be limited!"

This is a decision made by Yang Chao.

Yang Chao doesn't want to use administrative means, because there are often situations that you don't expect, such as the government setting the price, and the black market will boom, and in the end it will backfire.

But for the price of basic raw materials, if not controlled, the transmission effect of downstream enterprises is too terrifying, coal, steel to increase the price of 1 tael, enlarged to the automobile industry, may have to increase more than 3 taels, enlarged to machine tools and other high-profit industries, and even reach the price of 10 taels.

This kind of transmission is unbearable for the market, and will make many of the current policies out of control, such as when companies find that even if they have two-thirds of the government subsidies, it is not profitable for them to update their equipment, no one is willing to update the equipment.

Instead of continuously increasing the amount of subsidies in the midst of soaring prices, the government should start from the roots, limit the prices of raw materials in the coal and steel industries, and block this transmission effect.

But using such a thing as an executive order is naturally not to the appetite of the defenders of the free economy, Zhang Jiaao couldn't help frowning.

"And what if the coal mine secretly raises the price?"

Secretly raising the price, in fact, is a private sale, it must be a black market trade.

Yang Chao was puzzled: "Why do you want to secretly raise the price?" ”

Zhang Jia sighed proudly: "If someone offers a higher price, why don't they want to sell it at a high price." You don't have to do anything, you have to show the government an account on the surface, and you can see an account for yourself secretly, how do you check? ”

Yang Chao understood, Zhang Jiaao thought that he wanted to use an administrative order to limit the price, who said that the price limit could only be through an administrative order?

I don't know why this kind of person is so sensitive to government power, and it seems that he is very taboo about any expansion of government power.

Yang Chao said: "Subsidy, subsidize coal and iron ore, limit a price, coal and iron ore like to sell as much as you like." But the government allocates a sum of money to subsidize the surplus. ”

To put it bluntly, instead of directly subsidizing coal mines and iron mines, they subsidize their customers, and power plants, chemical plants, and steel plants that need coal buy coal from coal mines, and then take the bills to the government to receive excess subsidies, and the government will directly reimburse the part that exceeds the government's guide price.

This method is very reliable, but Zhang Jiaao's grasp of the market is extremely accurate, and he knows very well that every government intervention will cause the market to develop in the opposite direction, and eventually make the government's policy fail, which is the resistance of the free economy to the administration.

He quickly figured out the crux of the problem: "In this way, I am afraid that customers of coal and iron ore will become insensitive to prices and more receptive to coal and iron ore price increases." ”

Because they don't have to bear their own costs, power plants and other coal-using enterprises, I'm afraid they don't care about the arbitrary price increase of coal mines, anyway, there are government subsidies for their excess part, but it will further exacerbate the loss of control of raw material prices, and coal, iron ore subsidies, so when the price of raw silk and raw cotton swells, is it also subsidized, this is a vicious circle.

Yang Chao pondered for a moment and nodded: "It must be subsidized, and the subsidy will be seen for a year." ”

For Yang Chao, the conduction effect of raw materials is the most terrible, the price of coal rises by one or two, to the end of the industrial chain, the price may rise by 10 taels, which is ten times the inflation leverage, as long as the price of coal does not skyrocket ten times, it is cost-effective.

Besides, the price increase of coal mines is not endless, because the price is good, the profit is high, the investment in their coal mining industry will definitely increase, a large number of new coal mines will be opened, and the output will increase quickly, which is the role of market regulation, to put it bluntly, the sudden price increase of these raw materials is not because the market has suddenly increased the demand for these raw materials, and the production capacity has been saturated.

If the price of coal mines cannot be reduced in a year under the impact of large quantities of production, then the policy is proved to be wrong, and we have to find a new way.

After the introduction of the subsidy policy, it did suppress the price growth of chemical products, but the price of steel continued to soar.

Because the Australian and Brazilian governments did not cooperate, the Australian government refused to increase the immigration quota, resulting in the Pilbara iron ore mine could not expand production, China subsidized steel companies, but the Brazilian government increased the iron ore tax rate.

Australians are reluctant to increase the quota of Chinese immigrants, this Yang Chao can understand, but why the Brazilian government raised the iron ore tax rate, Yang Chao is not clear, because Brazil governments at all levels own iron ore shares, and it is easier to make money by increasing iron ore production than they raise the tax rate, unless the Brazilian government is stupid, unless Vargas is very ignorant, they will definitely not be able to make this decision.

Yang Chao immediately invited the Brazilian ambassador to negotiate, expressing great concern about the Brazilian government's increase in the iron ore tax rate, believing that this move is not conducive to Brazil's interests. As a result, the Brazilian ambassador said that Brazil is very willing to export steel to China, and they said that Brazilian steel is cheap and very cost-effective.

Well, Yang Chao understands that Brazil wants to introduce iron ore exports and replace them with steel exports, so as to promote the development of Brazil's steel industry, which is very in line with the concept of the Vargas government, but if there is no other business, Yang Chao will definitely not believe it.

"Ask me about U.S. Steel prices?"

It must be an American, Yang Chao is very determined, and sent someone to check the export price of American steel. (To be continued.) )