Chapter 116 Free Exchange Rate and Huayin Pay

For Li Zhigao's new monetary policy, the paper money was just returned, but most of the people attending the meeting were opposed to the issue of high-quality silver dollars, especially Liang Shiyi, whose rhetoric was very fierce, and he was even more blushing and thick in the meeting at the meeting.

The reason why this is so is, first of all, because Li Zhigao left after the first order, and the person who presided over the meeting was Zhao Jiayi instead of Li Zhigao, who made everyone less afraid of a "young woman", and secondly, people who are old in finance have a consensus, that is, bad money drives out good money.

"Bad money drives out good money", also known as Gresham's law, refers to the fact that when a country circulates two currencies with different actual values and unchanged legal ratios at the same time, the currency with high actual value (good money) will inevitably be melted, collected or exported and withdrawn from circulation, while the currency with low actual value (bad money) will flood the market.

The following conditions must be met for the realization of Gresham's law: both bad and good money are legal tender; There is a certain legal ratio between the two currencies; The sum of the two currencies must exceed the amount of money needed by society.

In the current situation, the market is full of all kinds of inferior silver dollars, if high-quality silver dollars are issued, then everyone will collect this high-quality silver dollar or melt it and withdraw silver, re-mint inferior silver dollars for circulation, and gradually cause a shortage of high-quality silver dollars.

In other words, it is undeniable that high-quality silver dollars are very good for building government credit, but if high-quality silver dollars are issued, an administrative order must be issued at the same time, stipulating that only high-quality Taiping silver dollars can be circulated on the market, and other silver dollars are not allowed to be circulated, otherwise the situation of bad money driving out good money will inevitably occur, and in the end, the high-quality silver dollars issued by themselves will not be able to make ends meet, and eventually the finances will be exhausted.

What Liang Shiyi said is actually very reasonable, because in the history of another time and space. An important reason for Yuan Shikai's demise was his monetary policy. At that time, in order to unify the currency, Yuan Shikai issued high-quality Yuan Datou by himself, and although the credit of Yuan Datou was pushed up, it was also because of the issuance of this high-quality silver dollar. This led to a serious loss of silver, which eventually exacerbated Yuan Shikai's financial crisis.

"Let me ask, if you want to implement this kind of silver dollar containing ninety percent silver, for example, there will be a situation where bad money will drive out good money, and at that time, how much silver will you put into it?" Liang Shiyi asked, "Have you thought about that kind of consequence?" ”

"Mr. Liang is not restless." In response to Liang Shiyi's questioning, Zhao Jiayi just smiled lightly, "Not bad." In finance, there is indeed a saying that bad money drives out good money, which is also known as Gresham's Law. However, in that case, there must be two or more currencies in circulation at the same time, and the ratio between the different currencies is a legal ratio, not a market fluctuation. ”

"What do you mean?" Liang Shiyi frowned.

"To put it simply, our future financial policy is determined to implement a fully open free market policy." Zhao Jiayi said, "That is to say." In the future, we will only issue silver and paper money, and we will stipulate that the government's revenues and expenditures will be paid according to the amount of the currency we issue. However, for other currencies in the market, we do not exercise pricing power, nor do we peg to any currency, but implement the policy of exchange rates between different currencies to fluctuate on their own. In other words, the exchange rate between currencies. It is determined by the market, the government does not impose exchange rates and comparisons, and the foreign exchange market is completely free for a certain period of time. In this way, in a free exchange rate market, the anti-Gresham's law is generated. That is, good money drives out bad money. ”

Hearing Zhao Jiayi say this, Liang Shiyi frowned again, obviously laughing at what Zhao Jiayi said.

In fact, although there is a saying in finance that bad money drives out good money, there is also a saying that good money drives out bad money, but in advance, this situation must be realized in a completely free foreign exchange market.

If you are in a completely free foreign exchange market, that is, in a market without any legal intervention, then the value of different currencies will vary between them, because there is no legal comparison. Then, in actual circulation, the currency with a strong trend and high gold content will be regarded by the common people as hard currency, that is, "good money"; Conversely, a currency of poor quality is considered a bad currency.

In international trade, people are often willing to accept hard currency, i.e., "good money", rather than soft currency, i.e., "bad currency". In this way, the superior will win and the inferior will be defeated, and a situation of "good money driving out bad money" will be formed. This can be described as a counterexample to the "Gresham's Law", which can also be called the "Anti-Gresham's Law".

In domestic consumption, this situation will also occur, that is, if the government, banks and other major institutions recognize good money, then the bad money in the market will gradually withdraw from the market, because once you do not need to law the exchange rate of different currencies, the people themselves will set their own exchange rates according to the different silver content, so that the market can adjust the ratio between different currencies, which is the benefit of its own fluctuating exchange rate.

In the history of another time and space, Yuan Datou because of its high silver content, coupled with the fact that there was no forced exchange ratio, let the exchange rate fluctuate, so in the subsequent development, Yuan Datou gradually unified the chaotic silver coin market, and became the most trusted currency of the people, even if Yuan Shikai died, Yuan Datou's credit was still the highest, and the people were willing to use Yuan Datou, which can be seen.

To put it bluntly, Zhao Jiayi's monetary policy is a self-owned floating policy with supervision, which means that the central government basically does not interfere in the foreign exchange market at the beginning, and the exchange rate is completely determined spontaneously by market forces, so as to attract foreign capital to come in, activate the financial market, make the pool bigger, let the water become muddy, and facilitate their own investment in silver.

Only in this way can we bring enough funds to the four major plans that will be started to stimulate production activities and prevent production from falling into the predicament of monetary tightening.

In order to achieve this goal, it is necessary to issue a large number of currencies with high credit value that everyone is willing to buy, such as the US dollar in later generations.

If a country has a large number of currencies with high creditworthiness, then once it wants to stimulate its own economy, it can relax foreign exchange supervision and let the exchange rate float by itself, so that it can dump a large amount of its own currency out and plunder the wealth of other countries, such as the US dollar, because the US dollar is very creditworthy, so the United States hopes that everyone will implement a free exchange rate, so that he can issue a large number of dollars. Let the dollar depreciate, so as to plunder the wealth of other countries, on the contrary, if it is pegged, then the dollar will depreciate, and the value of other countries' currencies will also depreciate. The meaning of plundering wealth is lost.

In other words, the reason why Zhao Jiayi encouraged Li Zhigao to promote high-quality silver dollars with high silver content was to create high credit for this kind of Taiping silver dollar. After all, the dollar in later generations was paper money, and credit completely depended on the national strength of the United States, while China did not have that kind of national strength at this time, and could only rely on the value of silver itself.

Once high-quality silver dollars are in circulation and freely convertible, they can replace other currencies as long as there are enough of them. The formation of good money to drive out bad money, once this situation is formed, can be exchanged for a large number of other countries' currencies, especially gold coins, in order to plunder the wealth of other countries in a more covert way.

However, there are two prerequisites here, the first one, which is that there must be a large amount of silver. You must be able to flood the market with a large number of new silver dollars, so that your currency continues to depreciate. Otherwise, it will not be able to form plunder, but will increase its own financial difficulties. As for the second one, that is, the state should have sufficient regulatory mechanisms and force to back it up to prevent unexpected situations from happening, such as other countries using force to blackmail at critical times.

Yuan Datou in another time and space is proof of this, and Yuan Datou himself is a good thing. However, because of China's lack of silver and the weakening of China's national strength, it had to accept the blackmail of other countries, so in the end it could only shoot itself in the foot, that is, to fulfill the prestige of Yuan Datou. Yuan Shikai himself was forced to death by this monetary policy.

However, Li Zhigao is different, he has a large amount of cheap silver from another world to rely on, and there is also a modern automatic minting machine, the minting efficiency is completely different from other mints in this world, and it is similar to printing paper money, so only he can play this kind of trick.

It is conceivable that once Li Zhigao implements such a limited and open monetary policy, he will certainly be able to curry favor with a large number of foreigners in a short period of time, after all, what foreigners have been practicing against China is a policy of plundering silver, which has led to a serious outflow of silver from China, and the gold-silver ratio remains high.

For example, at present, the gold-silver ratio in China has reached 1:30, while in foreign countries, the gold-silver ratio is only about 1:20.

What Li Zhigao and Zhao Jiayi have to do is to intensify the exchange ratio of gold and silver in advance, and take advantage of the last days of the gold standard before World War I to plunder the gold of the whole world from the market.

You must know that Li Zhigao's means of plundering gold in the past was through normal trade, that is, selling all kinds of daily chemical products, medicines and stainless steel products. In addition to medicines, these things can basically be regarded as luxuries.

In the past, Li Zhigao implemented a policy of only accepting gold, which allowed him to obtain a large amount of gold in a short period of time, but this situation was soon discovered by other countries, so they no longer used gold to buy, which led to the unsalable of these goods in the later period. In the end, in order not to overstock the goods, Li Zhigao had to loosen the restrictions on payment in silver, which allowed him to obtain a large amount of silver, but it became more and more difficult to obtain gold.

In addition, due to the long-term dumping, especially because Li Zhigao has opened many factories here, he has been able to produce some simple daily chemical products by himself, such as soap and soap shampoo, self-produced moisturizer, and self-produced stainless steel and other products, so the shipment of these things has increased greatly, resulting in the price is not as expensive as at the beginning, so that these daily chemical products and stainless steel products have stepped out of the ranks of luxury goods and marched into the ranks of daily necessities.

Although it is no longer a luxury product, the profit margin has decreased, but because the number has risen, the overall gross profit has become higher.

Today, the export value of a single Taiping Mansion is as high as the export value of the Qing government in the past month, of which the major export items are all kinds of stainless steel products, soap, shampoo, body cream and other daily chemical products, various self-made stainless steel watches and pocket watches, and recently added a synthetic fiber "high-grade cloth", plus a kind of nylon stockings and scarves that make women crazy.

That is to say, daily chemical products, watches and other things, Li Zhigao is no longer imported from modern society because he can produce his own products, and the light industrial products imported by modern society have been replaced by nylon stockings and nylon scarves that are lighter and thinner, do not occupy space, and have a higher value.

A Taiping Mansion, the number of exported goods is not much, but because of the high added value of goods, others can not imitate, it is a rare goods, so although it is only a city's export volume, in terms of value, it is on top of the export value of the Qing government in the past, not to mention the profit margin, and it is not much different from grabbing money.

Nowadays, although the stockings trade has just started only half a month. The sensation caused in Europe and the United States has just begun, and even the fashion industry has been hit by a major earthquake because of it. It is precisely because of the unique charm of stockings, and only China can produce this special stockings at present, so in the mouth of some Western women, China is no longer the country of porcelain and silk. It's called the land of stockings.

Of course, just exports, definitely not, for example, a surplus too large will cause trouble, so Li Zhigao also increased imports from other countries. Most of the imported materials are raw materials and luxury goods from other countries, such as light crude oil from the United States, Black Sea caviar and various animal skins from Russia, truffles from France and Italy, and high-quality wine from France. Spanish ham, as well as cheese and other agricultural and sideline products.

There is no doubt that in addition to crude oil, other caviar, truffles, ham, cheese and other things are in large quantities and of good quality at this time, and they are not sensitive in this world, and these things are exchanged for Li Zhigao's stockings and daily necessities. On the contrary, they also feel that it will be cheap, and it will even stimulate the country's agricultural production. Naturally, it is impossible to ask for it.

Although these things are not valuable in today's era, they are very expensive in modern society, and Li Zhigao can bring back a large number of easy-to-sell and insensitive things when he goes back, forming a virtuous circle again.

Now, what Li Zhigao brings with him every day from modern society. The most things are silver first, followed by a large number of stockings, and the things brought back from this world are those high-end agricultural and sideline products such as caviar, truffles, red wine, and cheese, which are not the same as before. I brought back more gold and jewelry.

In short, although Li Zhigao is still hedging gold, he no longer forcibly uses the way of goods trading to buy gold, because it is too sensitive, after all, at this time, the Western powers are also more sensitive to the outflow of gold, especially to China, which basically restricts the use of gold, but uses trade silver dollars.

In the countries of the Western powers, although the gold standard was in use, in their dealings with India and China, they practiced specially minted silver dollars, dumped as many goods as possible, put as little gold currency as possible, and plundered as much of China's silver, gold and other precious metals as possible, as well as other raw materials.

Therefore, if you want to continue to plunder gold, you can only use currency, especially high-quality silver currency, to use a continuous and large number of high-quality silver dollar currency to put it into the world and plunder the wealth of other countries.

You must know that although most of the great powers were on the gold standard at this time, in 1911, the United States, Britain, Germany, France, and Russia accounted for two-thirds of the world's gold stock, and other countries were short of gold and could only use silver as currency.

At the same time, even in those countries such as the United States and Britain, because the production of gold is insufficient, far below the speed of commodity production, so in those countries, silver coins are still the main currency in circulation, especially in international trade, silver coins are the mainstream, silver coins are still regarded as currency in circulation, not as in later generations, just as industrial goods.

Therefore, under the current trend of silver coins as the main currency of international trade, the issuance of high-quality silver dollars will flow smoothly into the international trade circle, so as to smoothly hedge gold, after all, compared to goods, silver and gold hedging is still very easy.

Of course, Zhao Jiayi will not explain this to the participants one by one, she only explained the benefits of high-quality silver dollars, and explained that an open monetary policy will be implemented in the future, so that good money will drive out bad money, and gradually establish the credit of the government.

In the end, Zhao Jiayi persuaded the people present, of course, not so much persuasion as coercion.

First of all, Zhao Jiayi said that this meeting is just a notice, everyone regardless of whether they oppose it or not, they must strictly implement these policies, and the government will forcibly launch this new currency at that time, and any merchant silver number that dares not to use or do not issue this currency will be banned by the Jiangnan government.

Secondly, any silver number or money bank that issues such silver coins can freely recycle all kinds of inferior silver coins and broken silver on the market, and after collecting these things, they can be exchanged for high-quality silver coins by the central bank. In the process of exchanging silver coins, the exchange rate of silver coins is not calculated according to the market exchange rate of the silver coins with other currencies, but according to the price of the silver contained in the coin, plus part of the processing fee, so that those who exchange money can earn a large part of the difference in price. Therefore, the more money they exchange, the more they earn, and they themselves will encourage others to exchange the silver for new silver dollars without supervision.

In addition, the issuance of banknotes and treasury bonds will also be carried out at the same time, and all banks, banks, and silver accounts that issue new silver dollars will join an organization called the Huaxia Banking Alliance, referred to as UnionPay. This UnionPay is led and supervised by the newly established Huaxia Central Bank.

Banks and banks that join the UnionPay system can not only exchange new silver dollars with the central bank at a price lower than the market price, but also issue banknotes and treasury bonds, and at the same time participate in the four major investment plans that will be implemented in the future, providing financial services for projects such as road construction and rural reconstruction. In the future, these UnionPay franchisees can even participate in foreign loan business.

In addition, after joining the Huaxia UnionPay system, new equipment will be added between different banks and the bank number of the bank, and the implementation of the real integrated interconnection, the so-called integrated interconnection, that is, after your home deposit, you can withdraw money in another bank number, during which only a meager inter-bank handling fee will be charged, and the policy of mutual support and common prosperity will be implemented.

That is to say, whether it is a big bank or a small bank, as long as they join UnionPay, they will become a family, and they will no longer have to worry about the shortage of funds or the lack of projects in the future. There is no doubt that such an organization led by the government is a proper government and businessman, and its ability to resist risks has been greatly enhanced, and there is no reason for everyone to disagree.

In this way, after continuing to do some communication and discussion, the bosses of the eighteen banks participating in the meeting, such as Qian Zhuang Yinhao, jointly signed and fingerprinted on the contract that Zhao Jiayi had drafted long ago, and from then on, Huayinpu, which later became the world's largest behemoth in terms of capital and influence, officially stepped onto the stage of history. (To be continued......)