Volume 14 The Smoke of Gunpowder Chapter 19 Everywhere is passive
After a moment of silence. Dudgway turned his gaze to Mrs. Loeblin. Child... One
Although Dudgway would first seek Mrs. Loeblin's advice on major issues, no one thought that Dudgway was a president of Landes's who had no independent decision-making ability. In the eyes of many officials and aides who are proficient in the art of power, Dudgway shows the importance of Mrs. Loeblin everywhere, not because Mrs. Loeblin is more suitable to live in the White House than him, but because he wants something from Mrs. Loebling.
To put it bluntly, if Dudgway wants to become a president like Franklin D. Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson who led the United States to victory in the world's war, he definitely needed a strong supporter. Because Dudgway was a military-turned-president, he needed not military aides like the famous American generals in Pershing World War I and Marshall's chief of staff in World War II, but the administrative assistants to Kissinger and Albright, both of whom were very famous US secretaries of state after World War II.
It can be seen that Mrs. Loeblin is playing the role of "virtuous helper" in this government.
The so-called knowing oneself and knowing the other side can win all battles, and knowing oneself is often more important than knowing one's other.
If you don't even know how many pounds and taels you have. How can we talk about winning all battles? As a military man. It is impossible for Dudgway not to be unaware of this, so he has to listen to the vice president before taking a stand.
"If the intelligence is not wrong, I'm afraid the war is about to break out. At the earliest, at the latest," Mrs. Loebling sighed, her gaze resting on the president for half a second, before she continued, "at the latest at the beginning of next year." ”
Dudgway nodded quietly, waiting for Mrs. Loebling to continue.
The president's gesture made the other participants shut their mouths. As you know, this is the time to hear from the Vice President, not to express it.
"Sixteen years ago, before the bombardment of the war in the Middle East had subsided, we were suspicious that the Chinese authorities had made a rough judgment about the future situation. It was thought that war would be inevitable. The problem is that we didn't know at the time that the Chinese authorities would be so aggressive in facing a world war. Mrs. Loebling sighed softly, and continued, "Until eight years ago. We have only realized that even if we take the initiative to back down, even if we take the initiative to cede global hegemony. As long as the United States of America remains a united and integrated power and there is hope for revival, war cannot be avoided. Driven by technology, when the costs of war become affordable, an arms race can turn into a world war in just a few years. At this point, retreating is tantamount to admitting defeat and voluntarily giving up the right to defend the country. We have no choice but to face the challenge bravely. The question is. War is approaching much faster than we expected. ”
After the president's remarks, the room fell silent.
"At the beginning of last year, when we were still actively planning for the general election, China almost went to war. According to confirmed information, if it were not for the advance of Russia's strategic forces into combat readiness, China's general elections would be about to begin. I'm afraid that the world war has already broken out when the Russian army marched into Astana. "Speaking of which. Mrs. Loebling's expression had become very serious. "I don't want to judge the merits of previous governments. But we must admit that tacitly or even implicitly supporting Russia in provoking China is absolutely the most stupid act, which is tantamount to pushing the United States to the crater. Whether we're willing to accept it or not. The Chinese authorities must know that the secret alliance treaty we have signed with Russia will equate Russia with us. In other words, as long as the Chinese authorities decide to take Russia under the knife, it will certainly not be Moscow that will be the first to finish. Since the beginning of this year. China has quickened its preparations for war and has become more proactive in major international affairs. Although China's foreign strategy has been somewhat restrained in the first two months due to the change of power, since last month, especially after entering this month, Pei Chengyi has successfully moved into the Yuan Mansion. China's war strategy has once again surfaced. ”
"The question is, why is China moving militarily at this time?" Taking advantage of Mrs. Loeblin's pause to drink water, Admiral Philip interjected and asked.
Director Holyfield wanted to answer. Seeing the president's handover to him, he closed his mouth again.
"Quite simply, just yesterday, Cheryakov held a high-level meeting in the Kremlin that lasted more than ten hours." Mrs. Loeblin glanced at Holyfield and Lewis. "Perhaps the Chinese leaders know better than us what decisions the Russian president made at this meeting." Of course, even without intelligence support, we can make a rough judgment. To put it mildly, if we sit on a crater, Russia is rolling in magma. As long as Cheryakov was the strongman who executed hundreds of Chechen militants, he should have known. What Russia needs to do is not how to drive China's power out of Central Asia, but how to protect itself. From this it can be concluded that the Russian authorities have already made a decision and will act soon. ”
Although Mrs. Loebling did not adduce any evidence, no one objected to her view.
"Knowing this, it is not difficult to understand why our country is carrying out military movements today. Truth be told, we have to admit the efficiency of the Chinese intelligence agency. Mrs. Loblin smiled bitterly and said, "If my judgment is correct, the Chinese authorities are only fighting against Russia."
One" on the edge has been adjusted. There was no mobilization of the warehouse. It will not even immediately adjust the strategic mobility capability of the Yifeng ** team, and there is no need to deploy it in advance. ”
"You're saying that the Chinese authorities don't plan to attack on their own initiative?" At this time, Du Qiwei asked.
"While this question should be answered by our generals and intelligence officers, I think. There really is no reason for the Chinese authorities to take the initiative to attack
Duci nodded slightly, waiting for Mrs. Loebling to continue.
Although the vice president's words were a bit excessive, when they saw the president's appearance, several generals and intelligence officers were also patient and did not say a word.
"The key is not strength, and if you talk about strength, ten Russia is no match for China. In any case, the Chinese authorities have always regarded us as the number one adversary, and everything they do is aimed at defeating us as the ultimate goal. If Russia were an ordinary country, even if it were a regional power, China would have done it a long time ago. Don't forget that 30 years ago, Japan and India were both regional powers. Because Russia is very special. Therefore, the Chinese authorities have repeatedly tolerated the issue of Russia. Imagine that even if we had not signed a secret alliance treaty with Russia, would the Sino-Russian war be a local war? Now that we are on the same front as Russia, the Chinese authorities have to consider the nature of the war against Russia. In other words, the Chinese authorities will not make it difficult for Russia until they decide to go to war with us. ”
"Could it be that the Chinese authorities are planning to go to war against us?"
Glancing at National Security Advisor Cannon Bridge, Mrs. Loeblin smiled and said, "Of course not. If the Chinese authorities had been confident that they would defeat us in a preemptive way and achieve a quick victory, they would have taken action long ago and would not have delayed until now. In a protracted war of attrition, because neither side can accurately judge the outcome of the war, or in other words, neither side is sure of victory, so both sides will exercise restraint and will never rashly declare war on the other side. Wars are also often triggered by inconsequential factors, such as the First and Second World Wars. The problem is that the current situation is very different from the previous two world wars, and the combined national strength of the two tiers of powers far exceeds that of other countries. Other countries have shown their inability to do anything about the situation, making the dominance of the great powers in the war even more prominent. In other words, the great powers will become more brazen when the situation is favorable. It is clear that the advantage is not in our hands. The fact that the war has dragged on and has not yet broken out is not because the Chinese authorities have not seen the key points clearly, nor is it that China does not have an advantage, but because it lacks a necessary condition. At least for China, it will not act rashly until it has figured out Russia's position. ”
The last sentence, Mrs. Loeblin, did not utter, but the meaning was very clear.
If that's the case, now even this condition is met
"Since the war is going to break out soon, we have to make a decision as soon as possible." Dudgway glanced at Stark and turned his gaze to Mrs. Loeblin. "I feel the same way, China's leaders have been waiting for a suitable opportunity. Last year, when Russia was playing tricks in Kazakhstan, we thought that war would break out, but the Chinese authorities endured it and did not take advantage of the opportunity. In addition to the reasons mentioned at the beginning, I think there is another main reason, and that is that the Chinese authorities do not want to be an enemy of Russia. At least not as a last resort, and will not take the initiative to make enemies with Russia. Affected by this, the Chinese authorities still have a trace of illusion when Russia brazenly sends troops to Kazakhstan, and they intend to use the policy of appeasement to stabilize Russia, but the result is counterproductive, and Russia makes a decision to actively prepare for war under suspicion. And so it goes. The Chinese authorities have no choice but to regard Russia as an enemy, and one of the main ones.
What happened today just shows that China's military preparations before this are not fully in place. ”
"The question is, will the Chinese authorities take the initiative to provoke a war?"
It can be said that Mrs. Loeblin's words are the key points.
The participants were all military and political dignitaries, and it was impossible not to know the importance. Although before that, everyone was eager to express their opinions. But when it came to the point, everyone was silent.
"This is also something we must figure out today, Du Qiwei smiled faintly, knowing that those politicians and generals have retreated, so they have not given others a chance to speak, and continued." In terms of strength alone, as early as eight years ago. Even if China will pay a heavy price for victory. The certainty of winning is also more than eighty percent. According to my personal judgment, the refusal to act rashly despite a clear advantage is not only to prove that the Chinese authorities do not want to pay too much for victory. It is also enough to prove that China's leaders are confident that they can win at a relatively small cost, and that it will take only a little time to do so. Things have come to this point, and we have to admit that over the past few years, the gap between us and China has not only not narrowed, but has even widened somewhat. Of course, there is another important issue that we cannot afford to ignore
"National Yuan?. Mrs. Loebling immediately frowned.
"It is undeniable that Yan Jingyu is a very talented politician, and he can even be called a rare leader. According to the information obtained by Uranium more than ten years ago, when he was still serving in the local government, Yan Chaiyu was reused by Wang Yuanqing, and Wang Yuanqing personally determined that he would be the successor of China's national yuan. Although Yan Jingyu did not do much during his tenure, it seems that many people think that even Gu Weimin is not comparable. But objectively speaking. Without Yan Yi, there would be no current China, let alone the threat of world war. Speaking from facts, it was Yan Jingyu's series of pragmatic policies to seek stability that consolidated the economic foundation laid by Gu Weimin, alleviated China's domestic contradictions, and further enhanced China's war potential. It is precisely because of this that Yan Jingyu will promote Pei Chengyi to vice president of the country in the second term. Pei Chengyi's status in China's political arena was determined, laying the foundation for Pei Chengyi to come to power this year. In other words, China's leaders realized five years ago, at the time of the last general election, that the time for war would come five years later. It must be admitted that if we talk about the ability to lead in wartime, especially the ability of military commanders, I am afraid that no one can compare with Pei Chengyi. Not to mention that we can see this issue clearly, even those reporters who can only catch the wind and catch the shadow can realize that Pei Chengyi's coming to power is a clear signal that the war is about to explode, otherwise at the end of last month, there would not be so many reporters going to China's new capital. ”
With that, Dudgway drank the entire cup of coffee in one gulp, and the others pretended to pick up their cups.
"The problem is, Bae Chengyi is not an adventurist. According to the information we have, he is actually a steady and pragmatic politician, and even before taking off his uniform, he is a steady and pragmatic soldier. ”
Dudgway nodded at Mrs. Loeblin. said: "Indeed, as far as I know, Pei Chengyi has nothing to do with idealists and is a complete realist. ”
"In that case," said Lady Loeblin, who immediately frowned, as if she had not understood what Dudgway meant.
"That's what makes my back feel cold." Dudgway let out a sigh and said. "It's well known. Idealists will take risks for the sake of their ideals, and they will forget about the dangers when they take risks, make mistakes, and give their opponents a chance to take advantage of. Realists, on the other hand, don't take risks easily. In other words, the realists have no clear purpose, and even if they do, they do not show it. Therefore, realists will strive for the best interests and will be extremely cautious in their actions. Never create opportunities for your opponent lightly. Before taking off his military uniform, Pei Chengyi was a realist, especially in the Middle East war, and his pragmatic spirit was very obvious. Imagine that under his command, China is better to deal with, or is it more difficult to deal with? In my personal feelings, China has become more elusive. Let's not talk about anything else for now, after all, he has just taken office. There haven't been many opportunities to perform, and in terms of what happened today, is it necessary to deploy military forces with such fanfare before starting to deal with Russia, just to deal with Russia? Rockville, Philip, are you going to do that? Anyway, if I had to arrange it. I'm not going to do that. It is important to know that the infrastructure in the northwest and northeast regions of China, especially the transportation infrastructure, is very good. North Korea's transportation network is also well-connected in all directions, coupled with the fact that both places have large cities with populations of more than one million, as well as supporting military bases, coupled with the unparalleled strategic mobility capabilities of the squadron, especially the Chinese Army, is it necessary to send supplies to the front line in advance? Sixteen years ago, the squadron was able to travel thousands of kilometers and start a war in the Middle East with a surprise attack. Sixteen years have passed, is it possible that the combat effectiveness of the squadron has not risen but declined. Not as good as sixteen years ago? All indications are that things are anything but simple in today's life. Not only was it premeditated, but it was also closely related to the Chinese authorities, or to Pei's real purpose. ”
"In other words, China will not necessarily take the initiative to attack Russia?" Stark asked before anyone else.
Du Qiwei sighed, shook his head, and said, "If it were really that simple, Pei Chengyi would not be the strategic genius who made us suffer several defeats. Of course, we cannot deny this possibility, after all, according to traditional Chinese thinking, there is a difference between justice and injustice in war. The righteous side will win in the end. Although this kind of strategic thinking is used to deceive people, especially the common people, it is influenced by it. The Chinese authorities must consider the justice of the war. In other words, if Russia can be allowed to provoke a war, it will be beneficial not only to China, but also to the Chinese authorities. The problem is that the Chinese authorities can completely abandon this notion, and Pei Chengyi is a person who does not play by the rules. In other words. It is simply impossible to accurately judge the intentions of the Chinese authorities. As a result, we will not be able to take the right response. To put it bluntly, if we think that the Chinese authorities will take the initiative to provoke a war, we should actively assist Russia, so that the situation in Russia will get out of control and finally let Russia fire the first shot. If the situation is diametrically opposed, we have to adopt the opposite strategy. That is, to suppress Russia, so that Russia does not act rashly; Regardless of whether this will have a positive effect, even if it can, it will affect Russia's defense strength, thus creating an opportunity for China to defeat Russia in one fell swoop. There may be a third, or even a fourth, possibility, but the only constant is that we will always be reactive. ”
Dudgway said that no matter how dull people were, they could hear the president's words.
Since there is no other choice, there is no need to deliberately find countermeasures to adapt to the situation. Only then can we most effectively protect and defend the United States' interests.