Chapter 31: The Theory of the Four Elephants

"Xiangfu, what do you think of this Duan Ping Luo?"

"Hui Gongzi, the minister was not yet an adult at that time, and after joining the army, he also heard Meng Shuai mention it, this Duan Ping into Luo seems to be too radical, but the marshal didn't seem to want to elaborate at that time. The minister also carefully studied it, and this battle was indeed too hasty. ”

"Is that Xiangfu opposed?"

Li Tingzhi hesitated for a moment and said, "Exactly." ”

I didn't express my position directly, looked at everyone and said: "Let's talk about this Duanping into Luo first, let me ask a few questions, let's think about it together, first, is Duanping Luoluo the first thing I broke the covenant to lead the wolf into the house?" Second, is it necessary to compete for the land of the Central Plains? Third, is the combat effectiveness of our DPRK army very weak? Fourth, what is the root cause of our eventual failure? ”

After I threw out the question, I drank tea by myself, except for Yuan Jian Xiaoqi, all three of them were thinking about my four questions.

It's about a cup of tea.

Seeing that none of them had spoken, I first said: "This first question is actually very simple and absurd, even if our army does not enter Henan, will the Mongols themselves not come?" Mongolia, as a nomadic people who have just emerged, with the power of Wokotai, will he have no ambition and only destroy the Jin Kingdom? Naturally not, its strong ambition of expansion and plundering does not need any invincible alliance at all, and the plan to invade the Song Dynasty has long been in the temple calculations of the Mongols. The second question is even more ridiculous, Henan belongs to the mountains and rivers of our Great Song Dynasty, and has been occupied by the Jin people for a long time, of course, it is necessary to take it back, and the sovereignty of the land can be easily lost. After clarifying such a major basic issue as the inevitability of the Song-Mongolian War, it should be said that Duanping into Luo was strategically desirable and the only opportunity at that time. What is the harm of taking advantage of the short interval between wars for the enemy to increase his territory and increase the depth of his defenses? Of course, as the DPRK-China opposition has attacked, the strategy, while desirable, is not necessarily correct. Thirdly, our Great Song Army did not make any mistakes at the tactical level. Let's take a look at the battle of Luodong, our elite Huaixi army fought with a dignified infantry phalanx and the invincible Mongolian cavalry, and its combat effectiveness surprised the Mongolian soldiers who had always despised the Han people of the Great Song Dynasty. Therefore, it cannot be said that our fighting power is too weak. Fourth, the key to Duanping's entry into Los Angeles is to lose at the campaign level: logistics and supply cooperate with all armies. If I remember correctly, in the winter of the year before Marshal Meng destroyed Jin (1233), the Jinghu Theater was still able to transport 300,000 stone of military rations to the Mongol army besieging Caizhou, but in the summer it was impossible to supply military rations to Kaifeng, so it had to be transported thousands of miles from Lianghuai. It can be seen that the lack of supplies is to a large extent the result of the Southern Song Dynasty's failure to coordinate its own internal contradictions, rather than an objective necessity, which is what Xiangfu said is too radical, and this radical statement also shows that there are big problems within our court, and as for the coordination between the various armies, it is also chaotic, and the orders are not stopped, and they pass the buck to each other. ”

I looked at Li Tingzhi and continued: "To sum up in this way, our dynasty can make two decisions: if our army can coordinate the internal contradictions, then the two Huai and Jinghu will march together, ensure supply, take Sanjing, and build it into the main forward defense line of the Song army, so as to increase the strategic depth and delay the offensive of the Mongolian army; Or go all out to defend, consolidate the three major defense areas of Sichuan, Xiangfan, and Lianghuai, and build a bullet surname or in-depth defense system, so as to block the footsteps of the Mongolian iron cavalry to the south, and at least half of the country can be saved. It's a pity that the high-level of our dynasty is like the monarch and ministers during the Jingkang Change, they are indecisive in war, defense, and peace, and try every method, but they are unwilling to spend great efforts to focus on one breath, and once they are frustrated, they hurriedly deny it completely, resulting in a strategic divergence, and in the end they can only swallow the bitter fruit, which cannot but be said to be a major mistake of the first emperor. For the previous decision, it goes without saying that the campaign was seriously wrongly executed; And the latter decision, the defense was not in place, which led to the almost collapse of the Sichuan and Xiangfan fronts at the beginning of the Song-Mongolian War. ”

After I finished this long argument in one breath, Wen Lu and the others had long admired me so much, knowing that my views were comprehensive and to the point, and nodded frequently. And Li Tingzhi, who talked to me for the first time, was already dumbfounded.

After Duanping entered Luo, the national strength of the Great Song Dynasty was gradually weakened, and tens of thousands of elite soldiers who were accustomed to fighting were lost, so they could only fully turn to defense, and it seemed that even Li Tingzhi focused on defense, and did not think that he would take the initiative to attack.

If according to the trajectory of history, although the boiling water of the Yangtze River is still flowing eastward for a moment, it will not know that in the near future, the blood of our Great Song and Han people will stain this great river red?

Li Tingzhi's military attainments are far from being comparable to Lu Xiufu and Wen Tianxiang, and his understanding of my remarks is naturally more profound. Li Tingzhi held the teacup in his hand, and his mind was all in thought.

Suddenly, Li Tingzhi's hand shook, tea spilled all over the table, completely ignoring his gaffe, and said: "Your Majesty, ah, Childe, I believe it, Childe is really a god and a man, I have no second person to think of such an incisive and comprehensive view." ”

I laughed and said, "There is no such thing as a god or a man in this world." ”

Li Tingzhi said excitedly: "I didn't believe it before, but now I believe it, Junshi is right, Gongzi is a god." ”

"I'm not a god, but I have a way of analyzing things."

"What method, can Childe teach us?" Wen Tianxiang asked hopefully.

"Absolutely." I said, "You will all be the pillars of my Great Song Dynasty, in fact, this method is also very simple, I call it the method of the four elephants." ”

"The Law of the Four Elephants?" The crowd asked, puzzled.

The theory of the four elephants refers to the earth, fire, water and terroir, and the two rituals give birth to the four elephants, and the two rituals refer to yin and yang, and yin and yang derive the four images of earth, fire, water, and terroir. In the ancient I Ching, the theory of the four images was elaborated in detail.

This first image refers to the fact that we must first understand the advantages of our side, so this first image is called the superior image, the second image is the disadvantage of our own side, which can be called the inferior image, and the third image refers to finding out the opportunity of existence, which is called the machine image, and the last image refers to the existing risk, which is called the danger sign. The theory of the four elephants does not exist in reading power, it also needs a reference, for example, this excellent image, the advantage of my side is to compare with whom, in terms of the height of people, I am taller than you, it means that I have an advantage over you, but I am shorter than him, naturally for him, I am at a disadvantage. ”

This is actually the famous SWOT analysis method in modern sales, and I just use the name of the four elephants to explain, which makes people feel mysterious and easy to understand.

Of course, in this day and age, SWOT is a very advanced analytical method.

"It seems very simple, but it feels very comprehensive and profound." Wen Tianxiang said after listening.

"Let's take an example, take the current trend as an example, and analyze it according to the theory of the four elephants."

In order to make Li Tingzhi return to his heart, I can be regarded as doing my best.

After all, Li Tingzhi's experience and knowledge are far better than those of Wen and Lu, if I don't have the ability to make three axes, then Li Tingzhi will definitely not really believe in me, not to mention that it is still pulled out by Jia Yidao.