Chapter 249: Developing Shanxi
On the contrary, normal national construction expenditures should be maintained, and at the same time, the scale of inward investment of private capital, especially agricultural investment, should be mobilized through policies.
China currently has a population of 382 million, 70 percent of whom are still farmers and herdsmen, and only by increasing agricultural investment and increasing agricultural income can we truly solve the problem of consumption power and cultivate a larger market.
Only with the market can industry and commerce develop better and the country's economy become stronger.
This is a basic market economy logic.
The war was fought so fiercely that money had to be used everywhere, but Hu Chuyuan insisted on continuing to reduce the agricultural tax and increasing the planting area of the large agricultural economy on the bottom line of ensuring the average amount of cultivated land.
The big agricultural economy is a concept put forward by Hu Chuyuan in China, that is, to gradually increase the per capita cultivated land area by 7.5 mu, and on this basis, through the joint operation and cooperation between the CITIC Society, other grain cooperatives and farmers, the chain value of cash crops from production to processing will be realized.
One of the key ideas here is that growers have the right to take a stake in grain processing enterprises, and to increase the value and income of the country's agricultural population through farmers' self-investment in downstream industries.
The promotion of this model in Shandong is the most common, the total area of cultivated land in Shandong is 87.53 million mu, and the area of joint venture land accounts for 93%, and the main joint venture party is CITIC Society, which raised funds and shares to establish oil mills, rice and flour processing factories, cotton processing factories and textile factories.
At present, the largest Qingdao Guanghua Textile Factory in Shandong is founded by CITIC Agency, and in the process of operation, the factory purchases cotton according to the standard, the price and the market are unified, and the quality requirements are also unified with the market.
The CITIC Society is responsible for selecting and cultivating improved seeds, using existing capital to increase other investments, and local branches are responsible for guiding joint venture farmers to plant cotton, raising funds to improve irrigation conditions, and purchasing machinery in joint ventures.
According to the guidance of local bureaus and the characteristics of the regional agricultural economy, farmers can choose to plant cotton, soybeans, peanuts, corn, tobacco and other crops.
Of course, there are also some very cruel realities in this process, that is, the peasants in the joint venture system have a strong ability to annex land from the outside, and continue to swallow up other non-joint land.
After the outbreak of the Boxer Rebellion, Hu Chuyuan once made a very detailed census in Shandong, with 100 mu of land/household as the landlord standard, there were about 37,000 landlord families in Shandong, and 30 mu of land/household as the rich peasant standard, and there were about 1.27 million rich peasant families in Shandong, and these people held 59.3% of Shandong's cultivated land.
Under the restrictions of the agricultural tax provisions, the agricultural tax is levied and reduced in different ways in 45 mu, 120 mu, and 330 mu, and those above 120 mu no longer enjoy any reduction or exemption or preferential treatment, which makes the pure landlord class shrink continuously, while the proportion of small landlords and rich peasants is constantly increasing.
There is a problem in this, that is, the development of industry and commerce and the scale of cities cannot keep up with the transfer of surplus agricultural population, so many Shandong people continue to enter the eastern part of the country, and even North Korea.
In fact, the scale of Shandong's population transfer is very large, with less than 21 million people living in the local area, about 37% of the industrial and commercial population, and 1/3 of the agricultural population, rich peasants, middle peasants, and poor peasants.
In the next decade, about 7.2 million or so people from agriculture will be displaced to industry.
The good news is that about 30 percent of these people belong to the new labor force just over the age of 16, and this generation has basically received basic education.
To put it simply, it is necessary to increase the number of rich peasants, and the policy should encourage the emergence of the rich peasant class, improve their social status and image, and regard them as the spine of the country.
This policy is certainly the path that China must follow, but its downside is what to do with a large surplus of labor.
For the time being, the answer is very simple: increase the cultivated area of land, improve the quality and conditions of agricultural land, increase the yield per mu, fully integrate the geographical characteristics of the development of forestry and animal husbandry and large-scale aquaculture, especially the effective use of mountain fields to develop tea, hemp, fruit forests and other cash crops, and develop fruit forests and timber economy in the hilly areas with abundant rain in the south and east.
Hu Chuyuan is not taken for granted, he is a businessman, and everything speaks with data.
Within 10 years, the urban population will increase to 150 million, reaching the standard of 40 percent, the cultivated land area will increase to 1.83 billion mu (city acre system), increase the reclamation of Hainan, Taiwan, and Northeast China, further increase the scale of mountain forestry economy in the southwest of Yunnan and Guizhou, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Fujian, deepen the reform of animal husbandry in Mongolia and the northwest region, increase investment in modern animal husbandry and industry, and develop the scale of marine fishing and deep processing industry in coastal areas.
Through such a series of economic policies, the goal of the large-scale agricultural economy can be achieved, and the higher demand of the kulak economy can also be achieved.
In addition, with the seizure of the Far East as the first strategic goal, we will strive to acquire from Tsarist Russia the cultivated and pastoral land of the temperate continent in the Novosibirsk region, and through the gradual resettlement policy to territorialize North Vietnam, and through the effective management of the land expansion in the southwest, we will actually expand more usable land. Migration to Southeast Asia and sparsely populated areas will further reduce the burden on the remaining population.
Finally, it is necessary to universalize the compulsory education system to lay a solid foundation for long-term population urbanization.
Hu Chuyuan's current major policy principle is kulak economism, and all the policies he is implementing at present are aimed at achieving this policy principle and goal, and he is resolutely determined to fight this war with Russia, and he will invest huge sums of money in research and production of mechanized equipment, and strive to win Novosibirsk and the Almaty and Balkhash Lake regions in one fell swoop.
Therefore, war must be fought, and investment and support for domestic agriculture must also be maintained, or even increased.
From the beginning of the second cabinet formation, Hu Chuyuan set up the State Economic Development Commission, referred to as the State Economic Commission, with Minister of the Interior Qu Hongji as the director, responsible for formulating long-term policies, coordinating and coordinating various cabinet departments and local political axes, and ensuring that the large-scale agricultural economy could eventually be realized.
In the past few days, Hu Chuyuan has been discussing new plans for increasing agricultural investment with Qu Hongji, the head of the Daqing Bank, Tu Renshou, the head of the Daqing Bank, Mei Ruding, the minister of agriculture, and other key officials.
To a certain extent, Hu Chuyuan and Hitler are basically the same kind of people, both crazy careerists, and the more tense the situation, the more determined his desire to realize his dreams becomes.
On this day, after the planning meeting on the large-scale investment in the agricultural economy in the northwest and southwest, Hu Chuyuan left Qu Hongji, Tu Renshou, and Mei Ruding behind.
After the other officials left, Hu Chuyuan made a confession to Tu Renshou and said: "The original total military expenditure of 3 billion yuan is no longer enough, and it is expected that the scale may reach 4 billion yuan...... I can tell you exactly here that the victory will definitely be ours, but even if we win, we will not necessarily receive much compensation from the Entente, so ...... You have to be mentally prepared. ”
Tu Renshou nodded slightly and said, "I've been thinking about this question all along!" ”
Hu Chuyuan is powerful, but his greatest strength is not that he has money and can control the situation in China, but that he has cultivated a large number of politicians with modern governing ability and ideas for China in the traditional bureaucratic system in the past two decades.
These people are the so-called descendants of Hu Chuyuan.
Their common characteristic is that, like Hu Chuyuan, they regard modern economics as the basic means of governing the country, and follow Hu Chuyuan to systematically study the theories of modern economics and political economy.
To this end, Hu Chuyuan, together with Fei Xue, a mathematics and economics scholar from the School of Economics at the University of Auckland, as well as Tu Renshou and Niu Yugeng, co-authored books such as "Macroeconomics", "National Economic Development and Regulation", and "Modern Economic Theory".
At present, the "New Edition" includes a total of 97 books on various subjects, covering politics, economics, law, industry, agriculture, water conservancy, natural science, philosophy, mathematics, ethnicity, culture, military and other aspects.
Hu Chuyuan has a very clear principle for his descendants...... You have to read these 97 books, and I will use which subject you have a specialty in.
Looking back on Hu Chuyuan's career in the past 20 years from 1901, he basically did two things, the first was to make money, and the second was to cultivate talents, and he achieved a very high level in both aspects.
Among these talents, Qu Hongji and Tu Renshou are precisely the most outstanding group, and they are also the oldest officials in the Hu Party.
When it came to the issue of military spending, Tu Renshou was very clear in his heart, so he took out another report and gave it to Hu Chuyuan.
After Hu Chuyuan roughly finished reading, he said: "This is the latest statistics of the State Assets Committee, according to this, the total military expenditure that the Prime Minister's Office can afford to withstand should be about 5 billion yuan." Last year's fiscal revenue was 1.07 billion yuan, and the total state assets increased from 4.42 billion yuan to 4.73 billion yuan. More than 3 billion, we must sell the state-owned assets to the market. According to the original plan, the inflation rate is stable below 3 percent, we still have a certain margin for additional monetary issuance, plus the adjustment of fiscal revenues of the political axe, and the partial resale of state-owned assets, 5 billion yuan is our limit. ”
Listening to his words, Hu Chuyuan bowed slightly, and continued to look at the latest data report submitted by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission.
In general, the Qing Empire was still very rich, in the Jiangnan Commercial Bank, the Beiyang Commercial Bank, and the Nanyang Commercial Bank...... As well as the shares held by other government-owned private companies, mining companies, and heavy industry enterprises, they can basically cash out 4 billion yuan.
In addition, the year before last, when the coastal industrial areas and cities were established, Hu Chuyuan also kept an eye on it, and acquired a large amount of land in the name of the political axe and rented it to various factories free of charge.
The total size of this batch of land is about 4 million mu, and basically by 1908, the lease period of this batch of land will expire without compensation.
The report also talks about this, but it does not calculate the specific price.
Hu Chuyuan spread out this page, let Tu Renshou and Qu Hongji take a closer look, and said: "If we win this battle and China's economy, especially the coastal industrial economy, continues to develop, the total market value of our land should not be less than 500 million. Of course, we already had a general plan for this money, and basically we still have to continue to use it for the operation of state-owned assets, especially the national construction ...... railways, postal services, water conservancy and roads! ”
He didn't finish his words.
Tu Ren pondered: "My lord, what do you mean...... If you really can't do it, let's just use this money? ”
Hu Chuyuan didn't rush to answer, and asked Mei Ruding to make a pot of tea for himself, and he thought about it again.
Now is a new era, and he no longer dares to say the phrase "China is not short of money".
Drinking hot Qimen black tea, Hu Chuyuan pondered carefully in his heart, and after a while, he said to Tu Renshou and Qu Hongji: "Although it is said that the political axe should not compete with the people for profit, but now is a very stage, we can actually make some national investments." The key question is where we invest...... When we talked about macroeconomics in this country before, I specifically said that national macroeconomicism is certainly not state monopoly economy, businessmen can monopolize a certain industrial field, because the political axe can at least assume the responsibility of a monitor, the political axe cannot, if the political axe directly participates in the composition of the monopoly economy, then who else can monitor the entire industry? ”
He said this to everyone's heart.
Once the state makes large-scale investment, it is easy for state monopoly economy to appear, such as the Jiangnan Commercial Bank in the early years, which was an out-and-out monopoly economy.
At present, these people, including Hu Chuyuan, have a basic consideration, that is, in the long run, the central political axe will definitely withdraw and cash out, and the local political axe can hold long-term shares on a small scale.
Qu Hongji thought for a while, and said to Hu Chuyuan: "I think we can make a little fuss about land expropriation and transfer, and the political axe is the only land expropriation party ......!" ”
Hu Chuyuan immediately waved his hand and said: "This is absolutely impossible, we are now vigorously calling on businessmen to follow the national policy to invest, calling on them to buy and sell treasury bonds, calling on them to support the national war, and in turn blocking their way to make money...... If we do this, we can indeed make huge profits in the short term, but in the long run, we will gradually lose the support of the people while seeking huge profits. ”
At this time, Mei Ruding, who had been thinking silently, suddenly spoke: "In the process of converting agricultural land to industrial and commercial land, the political axe bears the first responsible person, that is, the political axe is responsible for requisition, and it is rented to merchants cheaply for ten to twenty years. After the end of the preferential period, the land will be put up for sale. In this way, in the process of expanding urbanization, we can also control the cultivated area of agricultural land in the whole country from the perspective of macro control of the political axe. In addition, the SASAC can set up an agricultural cooperative to carry out joint construction in areas with more difficult conditions and low return on investment, and after the construction period is over, the political axe capital will withdraw capital and leave. ”
Qu Hongji immediately agreed: "This method is good...... However, the former can make money, but the problem is that the period for recovering capital is too long, and it is far from being able to hydrolyze the fire. The second way, to be honest, where private cooperatives are unwilling to go, they are basically calculated, and it is good if they don't lose money. ”
Hu Chuyuan said: "The second question is that we must also lose money, we must do this thing if we want to build a large agricultural economy." The combination of the two methods allows us to fill the back with the money earned in the front. In addition, I think that the state capital can flow outward, and the state capital can obtain the right to invest in minerals abroad through some aid projects, help some friendly or important countries to establish a basic industrial system, and then cash out. Or the state and the businessmen work together, for the businessmen, they can't ask for it, and if something really goes wrong, we will definitely send the army to defend the national interests. ”
When he said this, everyone thought it was the best choice.
Although the current military expenditure is very large, as long as the domestic financing capacity can be reasonably used, the SASAC can still allocate a sum of money for these operations.
Yuanshui can't solve the near-fire, but with these long-term income projects, the SASAC can carry out some financing and use the methods of market economy to solve the problem of national debt.
Taking advantage of this time period, Hu Chuyuan discussed it carefully with them.
But when they discussed it carefully, they finally found that the thing proposed by Mei Ruding could not be done, and the key was ...... No matter what the central government stipulates, the implementation of the local government will always be different, and the reason is very simple -- the profits involved are too great.
Money!!
When power can easily be turned into a large sum of money, corruption cannot be stopped.
It is not a difficult choice whether to have a political axe that has money but is very corrupt, or whether to have no money but can effectively control the problem of corruption.
Eventually, Qu Hongji proposed another plan, that is, to set up a new "Land Acquisition Management Law", in which the State Economic Commission would control the amount of land converted from agricultural land to industrial and commercial and urban land, and issue a new index every year according to the economic development status of each province.
When agricultural land is converted into industrial and commercial land, it must be auctioned in the form of a higher additional tax. The political axe can also expropriate land on its own for education, urban infrastructure, roads, parks, cultural institutions, etc., and when these land is converted into privately held industrial and commercial land, the corresponding taxes will still be levied.
As a result, the war expenses and the large-scale state industrial and agricultural construction funds still cannot be effectively resolved.
On the basis of the land transfer tax and land acquisition tax, Hu Chuyuan maintained another opinion, and the SASAC set up four new financial institutions, namely the China Trust and Financing Corporation, the Bank of China, the China International Investment Bank Corporation, and the United Bank of Asia.
After the second cabinet formation in 1900, Hu Chuyuan proposed a new ten-year plan, proposing to integrate electrical systems and electric motors, shipbuilding systems and ship power, automobile and agricultural machinery and internal combustion engine systems, steel and aluminum metallurgy and non-ferrous metal processing, industrial machinery lathes and mold systems, energy mining and basic chemical systems, electronic telecommunications and radio communication systems, washing and chemical products, high-end precision porcelain, chemical dyes and textiles, The 11 major industries of crop production and deep processing are developed as the most important pillar industries in China.
For the current Chinese merchant class, they may have money, but they can't enter these industries, and if they want to encourage new capital to enter, the state must provide technical assistance support to guide the development of enterprises.
Some scientists and engineers come back from abroad and want to start a business, but there is no capital, so the state has to provide financing services.
Through the early state financial and technological support for emerging industries, after reaching a certain level, the state trust capital can withdraw and cash out, and withdraw funds to support more emerging industries.
Investing abroad is even simpler, and now you can make a lot of money by building a match factory in North Korea.
China's state capital has taken the lead in leading domestic businessmen, especially small and medium-sized businessmen, to invest in basic industries and agricultural economies in major colonial countries, so as to accelerate the development of the colonial economy, that is, to increase the market space for domestic heavy industry and science and technology industry.
It's a win-win.
Everyone agrees with this series of ideas put forward by Hu Chuyuan.
In addition, Hu Chuyuan also talked to them about other issues...... In the past few years, he plans to shift the focus of state investment and support to Shanxi and Sichuan, and his personal investment focus is also on these two regions, but with the addition of an additional Xinjiang province.
The scale of investment in Xinjiang Province is too large, and the foundation is too poor, and within five years, the political axe does not have the ability to operate, so it is just by relying on his own strength, and the political axe can give a basic support policy.
Even if the foundation of Shanxi and Sichuan is very good, take Shanxi as an example, if Shanxi really wants to develop, it may be much more fierce than Hebei.
Not to mention other data, judging from the results of geological exploration carried out by rich Asian countries and political axes in recent years, Shanxi's total bauxite reserves are at least 100 million tons, or even 450 million tons, not to mention Shanxi's coal and iron, which are much more than Shandong's.
Asia's rich countries now have a big plan to re-establish a new heavy industry group in Shanxi that can compete with the big four groups.
Hu Chuyuan's basic point is this, if you have to build Yanjing into a world-class industrial metropolis, and make Shanxi a major resource supply province...... That's more than worth the cost.
He wasn't going to do that at all.
Yanjing is Yanjing, the center of culture, politics and education, and it doesn't have to be a world-class metropolis.
A big plan he is now brewing in his heart is to change Dai County in the north of Shanxi back to Yanmen Mansion, and develop it and Taiyuan, Jinyang, and Jincheng in Shanxi as the four major industrial centers in Shanxi, and build a real industrial Shanxi around Taiyuan.
Regardless of China's current chaos in the northeast and northwest, Hu Chuyuan did not disrupt his plan to strengthen the country, and within three years, he wanted to re-establish a new heavy industry province in Shanxi.
Within ten years, he wants to make Shanxi Province the new Shandong Province, if not more so.
I dare not say that his investment, the investment of the state, the investment of Shanxi businessmen, and the investment of businessmen from other places ...... The total amount of capital absorbed by the stock market is total, and he promises that he will be able to throw 3 billion yuan into Shanxi within 10 years.
It is equivalent to 30% of China's political axe's annual fiscal revenue smashed into Shanxi for ten years.
Fifteen to twenty years later, he began to cash out, and then used Shanxi's capital to invest in Northwest China and Mongolia, which was his plan.
The same plan for the whole game of chess he played was also applied to the northwest, first investing in Sichuan, and then spreading to the entire southwest.
(To be continued)