Chapter 497: Analysis
Although everyone understands the meaning of Wei Ruolan's words, but since ancient times, the Chinese have believed that no profit can not be early, if there is no profit, who will run a business and run a factory, being an excellent capitalist is definitely much more tired than a worker, you need to deal with all kinds of problems, solve all kinds of troubles, and make one decision after another, which is extremely exhausting.
If there is no huge profit stimulus, no one will be full to suffer from this, this is human nature, everyone is absolutely unwilling to admit that this thousands of years of habit has original sin, but they can't deny Wei Ruolan's theory, and suddenly fell into silence.
Wei Ruolan also knows that talking about these things to herself has subverted many people's cognition, but she must also say that if she does not understand the root cause of the problems in the Western economy, China will encounter the same troubles in the future.
"Whether it is investment in industry, or investment in finance, in essence, it is the act of relying on capital to rentier, the possession of capital will obtain extraordinary returns, in the field of production as profits, in the financial field called interest, this unequal distribution model exists for a day, the products produced by the society will have a surplus, and the shadow of the crisis will follow!"
"President Wei, your statement is a bit alarmist, China has had a business of making money since ancient times, Shanxi Jin merchants made their fortune by relying on the money dealer ticket number, and there are many handicraft workshops in the southeast, and after the fall of the Manchu Qing Dynasty, our factories are also increasing rapidly, in addition, although the economic crisis in the Western world continues, but it has not caused too many problems, in the past hundred years, the rapid development of the Western powers, this time there may be a crisis, but it is not necessarily going to die, if it is like before, it will soon disappear, Wouldn't it be necessary to make such a big move! As a veteran figure, Yang Du is not too interested in these economic theories, and he pays more attention to the real situation.
Wei Ruolan also understands very well that Yang Du's thoughts represent the views of a considerable number of people. And in the past, he had more or less this understanding. However, after a period of repeated thinking, Wei Ruolan has completed a sublimation of her thoughts, and she can see it very clearly.
"Mr. Huizi, what you said is true, but it is worth scrutinizing, China is still a country with an absolute predominance of agricultural population, which is completely different from industrialization. In the agricultural era, the main problem was the serious shortage of materials, even if some goods could be produced, they could be easily digested, and there would be no crisis at all, although there was no fatal crisis in Europe and the United States in recent years. But there's a reason for that, and that's what I'm going to talk about next.
I have already summarized that the root cause of the economic crisis is the lack of effective demand, and the deeper problem is the unfair distribution of the wealth created, this contradiction has appeared from the moment of the completion of industrialization, but why has there not been a too serious crisis for more than 100 years, in our opinion, the entire Western powers are still thriving, and the mystery of this lies in the continuous expansion of the market by an industrial country and the colonization of the whole world.
The world's first economic crisis occurred in the UK. At that time, Britain was the only industrialized country in the world. By expanding the colony, more demand was found for surplus products. The crisis in Britain was solved, and then European and American countries entered the era of industrialization one after another, and more surplus products were produced, so countries began to fight frantically for colonies, and at this time China's door was also opened, and a super huge market was displayed in front of the eyes of the Western powers.
In addition, there was a very favorable factor in this period, that is, the gold rush, in the western United States, Mexico, Alaska and other places have appeared crazy gold diggers, a large amount of gold was put into the market, although these gold can not be eaten, can not be drunk, but it is the world's common currency, relying on this gold to create a strong demand.
In the second half of the 19th century, the crisis came again, the world had been carved up, and there was no blank continent for everyone to pan for gold, and China's wealth was also seized one after another, and it seemed that the great powers had no way to solve the crisis.
But the days are endless, and at this juncture, there is another scientific and technological revolution, electrical appliances are emerging, and those capitalists have finally found a new investment hotspot, so they have taken out their wealth, built power plants, produced electrical appliances, and automobiles also appeared at this time, and the crisis was postponed again.
However, this crisis has not been eliminated, but followed by a shadow, and after the effect of the scientific and technological revolution began to weaken, the contradictions of various countries broke out again, Britain and Germany also set off a naval arms race at this time, and then evolved into a world war, relying on the unprecedented cruelty of the war, the Western powers consumed a lot of social wealth, but also created a large amount of demand, which is also the mystery of the rapid economic development of countries after the war.
After more than ten years of rapid development, this time the crisis has reappeared, why I think this crisis will be unprecedentedly serious, is because many possible means to resolve the crisis have been exhausted, if you can't find a way to resolve it, a new world war may be just around the corner! ”
Wei Ruolan used a long speech to interpret the evolution of Western society over the years, which made everyone's eyes shine, followed by in-depth thinking, will there be any miracle that can save the economy this time!
"From Governor Wei's account, I summarized the West's solutions to the crisis, the first is to open up the market; the second is a massive increase in the currency; the third is the promotion of scientific and technological revolution; The fourth is war attrition. But none of these methods can be called solving the problem, only to delay the advent of the crisis, the mode of industrial production still exists, and the root cause of the crisis also exists! ”
Qiao Yu summarized Wei Ruolan's words, everyone nodded frequently, Qiao Yu continued: "This time the crisis has appeared again, the world has been carved up, there will not be a huge market suddenly, and gold cannot increase in a large amount in a short time, as for the scientific and technological revolution, it is not an easy thing, now the cost of inventing and creating is getting higher and higher, not everyone can succeed, so there is only one way left to solve the economic crisis, that is, war, However, the cruelty of the last war has already shaken the world, and countries will not easily go to war, but if the crisis continues to be unresolved, there will be no choice for war! ”
"President, it seems that you and Governor Wei have both neglected a country. That's the USSR! Jiang Baili interjected. With the implementation of public ownership in the Soviet Union, everything belongs to the state, and there are no capitalists, and naturally there are no profits, and the so-called root cause of the crisis will not disappear! ”
"Brother Baili is not wrong at all, the founding idea of the majority party in Russia is derived from Capital, and this book does reveal the roots of the Western economy. The author also predicted that the capitalist system would eventually be overthrown, but God did not fulfill people's wishes, and the Western world escaped the catastrophe again and again with God's help, but the number of days is like this, not every time it can be avoided! ”
"The Soviet Union, Chief of Staff Chiang, is indeed a critical situation, and the Soviet Union does not have the problem of overcapacity at all under the system of complete public ownership. Because there is more to be produced, it can be divided equally among the workers, while the private system requires complex monetary transactions, and under public ownership it is a matter of course, so the Soviet Union behaved very differently from Europe and the United States in terms of economic construction, they built a factory, and they had to build a second, or even more. There is no need to worry about sales. In a sense, the USSR has managed to avoid an economic crisis! ”
Wei Ruolan continued to explain the problems of the Soviet Union to everyone, and Qiao Yu's initial impression of the Soviet Union was also very simple. It is just a huge red empire, and now after experiencing this history, Qiao Yu has a different understanding of the Soviet Union, and many well-known scholars in this era, including Westerners, regard the Soviet Union as the hope of the future and the representative of civilization and progress.
There are very profound reasons for this, among which the economic model of the Soviet Union is very breathtaking, it can be said that the economy of the Soviet Union is inefficient, it can be said that they grow extensively, it can be said that they waste resources, but it cannot be said that the economic crisis of the Soviet Union is continuous!
The Soviet model solved the most difficult distribution problem, and although it was rough and flawed, it did have its own uniqueness, and whenever there was an economic crisis in the West, the Soviet Union bucked the trend and performed very strongly.
"Was the Soviet Union's way of development perfect?" Qian Moyin asked on the side.
"Definitely not!" Premier Wang Yongjiang also spoke: "The Soviet Union was able to implement a complete public ownership system, which was maintained by a strong government, but after all, the government could not be exhaustive, there would definitely be loopholes, and this model would give officials too much power, and without sufficient supervision, corruption would inevitably prevail!" In addition, the Soviet model was established by a complete negation of the previous society and a complete shattering, in which the losses are also incalculable, not all societies can bear such losses! ”
Qiao Yu saw that everyone almost understood the situation in the West, and said: "The Soviet model is not advisable, but it can provide us with a way to solve the crisis, that is, if the effective demand is insufficient, it can be created by the government, which may be the way to resolve this crisis, but this is to touch the foundation of the Western world, and it will not be used unless it is absolutely necessary, which means that this crisis will definitely evolve to an alarming extent." China is far from completing industrialization, and has not yet enjoyed the treatment of the economic crisis, at best, it is only affected by some of the effects, so that everyone knows that the purpose of these is to let us know ourselves and the other first, and wait until the Western crisis appears, it is a good time for us to copy the bottom, I believe that soon China's industry will usher in a God-given opportunity for great development! ”
"President, since you have concluded that the economic crisis is difficult to completely resolve, won't China also face this situation in the future? Will it be a dead end at that time? Yu Peilun, who had not spoken, suddenly spoke, this is indeed a very awkward question, China has clearly seen that the economic crisis is a big hole, and it has to jump into it without hesitation.
Although Qiao Yu has more than a hundred years of knowledge, he can't find a way to solve this problem, and the future generations are also encountering an unprecedented crisis, and it seems that the feasible ways in the past have disappeared, "I believe in the wisdom of future generations, they will find a proper solution!" (To be continued.) )