Chapter 118: Financial Turmoil in the Far East (2)

Historically, before 1894, the Qing Empire's total economic output was still the largest in the world. In 1895, the Qing Empire's economy was on the verge of collapse due to the indemnity payment for the defeat of the First Sino-Japanese War, making the United States the largest economy in the world, surpassing the Qing Empire.

Now, the appearance of Wang Chenhao has rewritten the history of the First Sino-Japanese War, and the butterfly effect has had a certain impact. In 1895, the Qing Empire and the United States maintained a balance in terms of economic aggregates, each with 13.5 percent, tied for the world's first place, while Britain took third place with 8.2 percent. However, because the economic support of the Qing Empire was based on agricultural real estate, while the United States and Britain were based on industry, by March 1896, the total economic output of the United States reached 14.2%, the Qing Empire continued to decline to 12.7%, the United Kingdom rose to 8.3%, and the United States surpassed the Qing Empire to become the world's first, and Britain third. But this is only an illusion, the population of the Qing Empire is ten times that of Britain, but the total amount is less than twice that of the United Kingdom, and the productivity and production efficiency are 5:1, making the Qing Empire still an extremely backward and weak country.

Although the Qing Empire was poor and weak, it was a skinny camel bigger than a horse, and as a super economy, the scale of its currency for market circulation was extremely large.

In the last years of the nineteenth century, the world's annual production of silver reached 120 million ounces, or about 3,400 tons. This silver was basically consumed in the few countries that practiced the silver standard, such as China, the United States, Mexico, Japan, and Tsarist Russia. The Qing Empire, as a super economy and a country that implemented the silver and copper standard, calculated that its annual fiscal revenue accounted for 20% of the national income, and its domestic silver circulation would reach 400 million taels.

At the beginning, the major bankers at home and abroad still smiled and accepted the Qing Empire's request to exchange silver for gold, but the Qing Empire's huge silver circulation, 400 million silver flocked to cash out gold, so that most of the bank's gold reserves quickly dried up. Since Britain, France, Germany and other European countries basically live on the gold standard, and the country's paper money is equivalent to gold, so soon the people began to flock to cash out the paper money of various countries, causing a sharp decline in the financial reserves of the banks of various countries in China, and frightened them to immediately stop cashing out the exchange, or even close the door.

The largest international bankers with the surname HSBC, Germany's Deutschland, Russia's China Daosheng, France's CrΓ©dit Agricole and other international bankers also understood that the United States' selling of silver would bring huge silver losses to the international silver price, so they quickly refused to cash out gold or paper money to China's silver.

Guangxu ordered the Prime Minister's Yamen to be responsible for negotiating with bankers from all over the world, hoping that the banks of all countries would continue to open their doors for exchange. On 15 February, under the mediation of British Minister Dou Nale, more than 30 European and American bankers, including HSBC, Dehua, Russia-China Daosheng, Amundi Agricole, Liru, and Zhengxing, formed a banking group to negotiate with the Prime Minister's Yamen.

Britain, France, and the United States, out of their desire to continue to control the customs of the Qing Empire, offered to support the Qing Empire's temporary gold and copper standard and then change to the gold standard, but they demanded that the Qing Empire borrow 12 million pounds (100 million kuping taels of silver) as a guarantee to support the temporary gold and copper standard. Delivered at a 95% discount (95%), with an annual interest rate of 5%, limited to 50 years, and cannot be repaid in advance or in one go; secured by customs revenues; During the repayment period, the post of General Taxation Department of the Chinese Customs had to be filled by a British, one of the five deputy tax directors was a French and an American, thus giving Britain, France and the United States a guarantee of control of China's customs administration for 50 years.

Germany and Russia have always wanted to meddle in Chinese customs, and they supported the British, French, and American proposals, but on the condition that Germany and Russia be included.

In addition to political considerations, the powers of various countries believe that the United States repeals the silver purchase bill and sells a large amount of silver will definitely affect the international silver price and cause silver losses, and the conclusion of the negotiations is that the ratio of silver to gold will be reduced from the current 1:15 to 1:28, and then the silver standard countries will face a large amount of silver losses, in order to reverse the silver loss, the silver standard countries will be repurchased by the political axe bill, so that the silver trend in the next few years will first fall to the bottom of 1:28, and then gradually return to the current 1:15, silver prices returned to stability. It is equivalent to the silver purchase bill of the United States in disguise to the silver purchase bill common to all silver standard countries.

This conclusion is shared by the majority of bankers and financiers, who, as the international chaebols, believe that they can influence the trend of silver. Therefore, most of the bankers in various countries have reached an agreement on the issue of opening up silver exchange to China. However, some banks did not want to take too much risk, and they proposed that the Qing Empire reduce the exchange ratio from the current 1:15 to 1:22 before they were willing to continue the exchange, that is, to exploit the value of the Qing Empire's silver in disguise, causing part of the silver loss in advance. The proposal was eventually agreed upon within the banking syndicates of various countries, and in the end, Dou Nale informed the Prime Minister of their conditions as a representative.

Prime Minister Yamen believes that once it is exchanged with the bank groups of various countries at 1:22, it is better not to exchange it. Although the price of silver in the market is falling, it has not fallen to the extent of 1:22. Previously, it was only Wang Chenhao who raised the issue of silver loss in an alarmist manner, whether it could really be a silver loss to the 1:33.5 that Wang Chenhao said, which no one was sure of, especially when dozens of foreign bankers agreed that it was impossible to drop to the point of 1:33.5, so the imperial court began to hesitate to agree to the proposal of the powers.

If Wang Chenhao is right, then the condition of 1:22 is acceptable, and the Qing Empire will reduce the direct economic loss by at least 100 million taels compared to when it falls to 1:33.5. If Wang Chenhao is bragging, and the judgment of the financiers of the great powers is right, then the Qing Empire will probably lose 40 million taels immediately. One is a long-term plan, and the other is the current predicament, which is very difficult for Qing Zhengaxe, who does not know much about the operation of international finance.

Emperor Guangxu ordered the prime minister's yamen and the local governors and ministers to express their attitudes, whether they should agree or not.

Prince Gong's Mansion, as the minister of the Prime Minister's Yamen, Yi hesitated and stayed in the study for a whole day.

Li Hongzhang is now obedient to Wang Chenhao's words, and as a representative of the local governor, he has expressed his acceptance of the terms of the great powers, and he is betting that the price of silver will fall to 1:33.5. Now the Prime Minister Yamen has not expressed his position. And the Prime Minister's Yamen naturally only looked forward to Prince Gong Yi, which gave Yi great pressure.

"This Wang Chenhao is really true! You say he is idle, nothing to mention, what is the loss of gold and silver? We have 40,000,000 people in the Qing Dynasty, what can we do if we lose something? On average, it's just a few dozen copper coins per ordinary person, can you afford it? Well, now the emperor has to get a financial reform, our Qing Dynasty has been using the system of the previous dynasty since the founding of the country, how can there be any reform? ”

Seeing her grandfather's sad face, Lord Ningxiang personally made tea and comforted her: "Marfa just agreed!" Why bother? Besides, isn't the emperor's reform more serious to seize the financial power with Lafayette? ”

"The emperor is too young, how can my old sister-in-law easily let go of power? Forget it, don't mention this. Yi said distressedly: "Now the price of gold and silver is about 1:18, if you agree to the request of the foreigners to exchange it at 1:22, the country will immediately lose tens of millions of taels of silver." ”

Ning Xiang said lightly: "But if you don't agree, once the price comparison falls to 1:33 as predicted by Wang Chenhao, the loss will be more than 10,000 taels." The lesser of the two, or the latter, is more important. ”

Yi nodded and said: "That's the reason, but once Wang Chenhao miscalculates, the responsibility is not light." Wang Chenhao is just talking about it, but it is us who make the decision. The credit for success is his Wang Chenhao's, and it is we who are guilty of unsuccess. ”

Ning Xiang smiled helplessly, this thing is really difficult.

Yi suddenly asked, "Girl, haven't you seen this Wang Chenhao?" Do you think what he says is reliable? ”

Ning Xiang seemed to think of the embarrassing situation of meeting Wang Chenhao again, and couldn't help but pause for a moment, and she didn't come back to her senses until Yi asked for the second time. She just smiled lightly and said, "I don't know if it's reliable or not." However, judging from his style of acting, every word must be achieved and everything will come true, and he has never missed a word. ”

Yi thinks about it, Wang Chenhao's words were always unbelievable, but in the end, they were all fulfilled one by one, proving that what he said was true.

"It looks like that's all it takes."