Guo Ye doesn't like to ask his elders about everything, he likes to think for himself, and the knowledge he doesn't understand will naturally be shameless to ask for advice with an open mind, if he can sort out the questions by himself, he will never let others reveal the answer for him.

The drizzling autumn rain lasted for a few days, and Jia Xu, who was wearing a wide-sleeved robe, looked at the scene of the eaves dripping like a stream, and he didn't know what he was thinking with an indifferent expression.

Guo Ye stood beside him and said softly: "Sir, I have been thinking about the reaction of Yuan Shao and Cao Ying these days, Yuan Shao is still the prince of the world in less than two years, his status, his strength, so that he can see no one, with his strength, he can completely divide the army into two ways, all the way to fight Cao Ying, all the way to guard against his father, in this way, Yuan Shao is a perfect strategy, and when he fights with Cao Ying in the future, there will definitely be his garrison in Bingzhou, beware of his father who sent troops from Hangu Pass." Cao Ying was very different from Yuan Shao because of the strength of his soldiers and horses, if the decisive battle came, he was unable to divide his troops to guard against his father, and even, Liu Biao in the south, Sun Ce in Jiangdong, and Lu Bu in Xuzhou all had the opportunity to give Cao Ying a salary at that time. Therefore, it doesn't matter whether Cao Ying will be paralyzed by his father. ”

This opinion was thought up by Guo Ye himself, and the best way to anticipate the enemy is to compare his heart with his heart, stand in the other party's position, and assume that he has the other party's conditions, how will he react, this method, Guo Jia instilled it in Guo Ye a long time ago.

Jia Xu looked at the foggy sky, the autumn rain was continuous, delicate and silent, revealing a faint smile.

"Ye Gongzi, if I am Cao Ying, I have 100,000 soldiers and horses, you are Yuan Shao, you have 300,000, if you want to fight me in a decisive battle, how many troops will be put into the battlefield?"

Guo Ye thought about it seriously, and after a moment of silence, he replied: "Yuan Shao plotted Jizhou, swallowed Hebei, and was like a rainbow all the way, but he waved 200,000 troops to attack Guanzhong but ended up with the whole army annihilated. ”

"Well, let me ask you again, if I have 200,000 soldiers and horses, and you have 600,000, how many troops will you invest in the decisive battle?"

Jia Xu then asked.

This time, Guo Ye fell into a longer thinking time.

It sounds like the comparison of 100,000 and 300,000, 200,000 and 600,000 troops, all of which are three times that of the other side, but wars cannot be compared with such data.

It should be expressed like this in order to really understand the difference in strength, 300,000 is 200,000 more than 100,000, and 600,000 is 400,000 more than 200,000!

Guo Ye fell into deep thought, with a comparable number of troops, regardless of the right time and place and people's strategy, their chances of winning may be five or five, but 100,000 against 300,000, I'm afraid the chance of winning is less than 300,000, and 200,000 against 600,000, the odds of winning have fallen to less than 10%.

From ancient times to the present, when there is such a huge disparity in military superiority, it is rare to be able to give victory to the weaker side.

Even if Cao Ying's art of war is at its peak, he may not be able to defeat Yuan Shao in such a disparity in strength.

Today's Cao Ying, only Yanzhou and Yuzhou, plus a small part of Sizhou's land, his strength is difficult to compete with Yuan Shao, who owns Hebei, at least eighty percent of the people in the world think that Yuan is strong and Cao is weak, Yuan Shao wants to fight with Cao Ying, and the winner is none other than Yuan Shao.

Jia Xu asked Guo Ye, not to ask about the outcome of this decisive battle in the future, but what kind of attitude Yuan Shao would use to face this decisive battle, the number of victories and defeats, in Jia Xu's eyes, there is no absolute, even if the probability of victory is less than one percent, it may eventually win.

After all, Guo Ye is not deeply involved in the world, if he uses the way of war he has learned to face such a situation, he will most likely choose to be safe and not take risks.

"If I am Yuan Shao and have 600,000 troops, I will put 500,000 into the battlefield, and another 100,000 to contain Guanxi, in case my father is waiting for an opportunity to get out of the customs."

Guo Ye's answer made Jia Xu couldn't help laughing, and asked rhetorically: "Young Master Ye, you are now Yuan Shao, if you win the battle against Cao Ying, annex Yanzhou, Yuzhou, and Sizhou, which borders the state." Do you know what this victory means? ”

Guo Ye was shocked, he only thought about the war, but ignored the overall situation, at this time he woke up and blurted out: "The world!" ”

If Yuan Shao was not only the overlord of Hebei, but also annexed the Central Plains, then the surrounding princes could surrender almost immediately, Lu Bu, Sun Ce, Liu Biao, they could not resist Yuan Shao, who was sitting in the land of seven states.

In other words, as long as Yuan Shao defeats Cao Ying, what he has will not only be Hebei and the Central Plains, Xuzhou, Jingzhou, and Yangzhou, will all be in his pocket, so that even if Guo Jia subdues Liangzhou at the same time, he only has Guanzhong, Yizhou, Liangzhou, and less than three states.

Jia Xu stretched out his hand to feel the coolness of the raindrops, and said lightly: "Yuan Shao and Cao Ying will fight a decisive battle, he will come out of the nest, there are two reasons, one is that Yuan Shao was defeated in Guanzhong, he is very timid and will not be confident because of the advantage of troops, Cao Ying is better at fighting than him, this self-knowledge, Yuan Shao must know, so he wants to put all his advantages into this decisive battle, how many soldiers and horses he has, how many soldiers and horses he will invest." Second, to defeat Cao Ying, Yuan Shao is only one obstacle from the king of the world, that is, the lord, the lord is gradually becoming stronger, Yuan Shao can't sit idly by, when Gongsun Chan dies, it doesn't matter, he wants to be strong in Hebei, and there is only one way to go south, so he wants to defeat Cao Ying with thunder. ”

Guo Ye, who listened very attentively, nodded frequently, but soon frowned again, and asked: "Sir, if Yuan Shao wins, my father's situation will be precarious, at this time, why does my father want to paralyze Yuan Shao and Cao Ying, why don't you unite with Cao Ying to fight against Yuan Shao?" Even if they don't meet on the battlefield, Yuan Shao doesn't dare to wave his army south, he can delay time, so that his father can get a longer time to develop in Guanzhong. ”

At this moment, Jia Xu looked at Guo Ye differently, looked back at him and threw an appreciative look, Jia Xu smiled and said: "Young Master Ye can think of this, the lord must be deeply relieved when he learns about it." ”

Guo Ye's surname is calm, even if it is Jia Xu's appreciation, he is unmoved.

"There are still two reasons, the lord and Cao Ying, the two families benefit, the lord has more time to develop Guanzhong, Cao Ying also has more time to sweep away the weak forces around him, but in the long run, the lord hopes that the princes of the world can have one less and one less, ten years ago, the forces of all parties are innumerable, to today the world is divided and self-reliant There are no more than ten people, one less hero, one less opponent, in the eyes of the lord, Yuan Shao and Cao Ying, obviously Cao Ying is more feared than Yuan Shao, it is better to exterminate Cao Ying as soon as possible than to let him sit big. The second reason, I'm afraid that Yuan Shao can't wait, Yuan Shao is nearly fifty years old, as long as he ensures that Hebei will not have another accident, he can't wait to wave his army south, he can play with the princes, but he can't fight with the mandate of heaven, his death date, maybe twenty years later, maybe ten years later, but how can Yuan Shao have the confidence to break the will of heaven? ”

A look of chagrin appeared on Guo Ye's face.

There were too many factors that he didn't take into account.

Yuan Shao's age, how long can he live, this is an obvious thing, why can't he think of it?

Cao Ying is younger than Yuan Shao, and Cao Ying is more cunning than Yuan Shao, which is also ignored by him.

Turning his head, Jia Xu lovingly stroked Guo Ye's head and said softly: "Actually, Ye Gongzi's previous speculation was half right. The lord built the water division, and he really wanted to fight Jingzhou. But it depends on the timing, especially the decisive battle between Yuan Shao and Cao Ying, if Guanzhong does not recover and the lord misses the opportunity to wave his troops in the Central Plains, then after Yuan Shao defeats Cao Ying, the lord will immediately swallow Jingzhou, and then tie up Jiangdong and reject Yuan Shao. ”

Guo Ye raised his head, looked at Jia Xu and asked puzzledly: "Jiangdong Sun Ce is not the land of the six counties, why don't you take Jiangdong together?" ”

Jia Xu shook his head and said with a smile: "It will not be easy to fight Jingzhou from afar, Jingzhou will be in flames, Jiangdong will definitely take strict precautions, and it will be difficult to swallow the south of the Yangtze River in one go." ”

Regardless of whether there is any basis for Jia Xu and Guo Ye's discussion and speculation between the master and apprentice, at least one thing Jia Xu is right.

The Battle of Guandu was won by Cao Ying in history, but now, Guo Jia did not dare to prepare based on history alone.

What if, Cao Ying is defeated?

Therefore, Guo Jia must be prepared to deal with it, if he can't control the battle of Guandu and can't profit from it, Yizhou's naval army will at least surprise Jingzhou on land and water when Yuan Shao wins.

Take Jingzhou, form an alliance with Jiangdong, and jointly deal with Yuan Shao.

This is a measure to prevent Yuan Shao from winning the battle of Guandu, Guo Jia can't joke with his net worth, if he doesn't prepare, and Yuan Shao wins, I'm afraid that there will be no strong or weak princes in this world, because Yuan Shao has almost achieved unification.

Guo Ye smiled bitterly and said, "I can't guess what my father thinks." ”

The fight against Jingzhou that he thinks is completely different from what Guo Jia thinks.

If Guo Jia attacked Jingzhou without a decisive battle between Yuan Shao and Cao Ying, the division was unknown, and it violated the way of the ministers, he and Liu Biao were both Hanchen, and before Liu Biao did anything unfavorable to Guo Jia, Guo Jia had no reason to attack Jingzhou except that his ambition could be explained.

But once Yuan Shao defeats Cao Ying, the background will be different, and the sky has changed!

Cao Ying coerced the princes of the Son of Heaven to order the princes, Yuan Shao attacked Cao Ying, he scolded Cao Ying for being a Cao thief a moment ago, as long as he was defeated, he would become a Yuan thief in the next second!

At that time, Guo Jia fought Jingzhou, there were too many names that could be used, Xu Du fell, Liu Biao did not save it, that was the reason, Yuan Shao embezzled the Central Plains, and wanted to change the dynasty, Guo Jia in order to "help the Han Dynasty", he must "borrow Jingzhou", Liu Biao's obstruction is the reason!

At that time, the situation would be in turmoil, and the people of the world would be panicked, Guo Jia could do a lot of things while he was in turmoil, even if the attack on Jingzhou would be blamed, it would not be too intense.

Jia Xu suddenly looked down at Guo Ye very solemnly, and said seriously: "Ye Gongzi, you know the surname of the lord's spleen very well, but the style of the lord's work, you still have to learn it with your heart, remember, before the war starts, you want to lose first, and if you can do a good job in the aftermath, you will be able to accept all the results." The good defenders hide their troops under the nine lands, and the good attackers move above the nine heavens, every time the lord moves, you have to remember the bits and pieces with your heart, and often the seemingly ordinary actions may have far-reaching significance. ”

(To be continued)