readx; Three o'clock in the afternoon. Pen "Fun" Pavilion www.biquge.info

Today is the time for all 27 members of the Government Council to attend classes together.

The Government Council has a tradition of holding classes, and the teachers are all top experts in various fields, and when there is a problem in a certain area, or it becomes important, experts in this field are invited to give lectures.

The members of the Government Council are naturally all reasonable, and the time of the class needs to be coordinated, but in today's class, all the giants regard it as a top priority and must participate.

The reason why this is so is because the teacher who is in class today is from Han Yuan's staff group.

Today's teacher is Liu Yuting, director of the American Department of the Han Yuan Staff Corps.

The Han Yuan Staff Group is a special organization, although it is the director of the American Department, Liu Yuting does not have a trace of officialdom, he is purely a scholar, but this scholar is a bit of a hooligan and not so serious.

As soon as he came up, Liu Yuting smiled and said: "Leaders, before the lecture, I think we should warmly congratulate President Bush on his successful re-election!" ”

After speaking, Liu Yuting took the lead in slapping.

Not everyone understands the significance of George W. Bush's re-election, but at least everyone knows that George W. Bush is stupid.

Even if China does not want to fight with the United States, it is inevitable that the United States, as a superpower, will suppress China, the only potential challenger.

In this regard, just look at the reaction of the Americans as soon as the euro emerged.

The United States is so fierce about unilateral challenges, and it is natural that the United States will react to an all-round challenger like China.

Therefore, it is naturally a good thing for China to be in charge of a fool, a great thing.

Stopped slapping his face, Liu Yuting put away his smiling face and began to lecture, and the content of his lecture today is an in-depth analysis of the fundamental problems of the United States.

In today's world, the force that determines everything is not military or political, but economic, and both military and political are extensions of the economy and serve the economy.

Liu Yuting just congratulated Bush Jr. on his re-election because Bush Jr.'s re-election means that the United States will have to wait at least four years for the Bush Doctrine to be liquidated, and Bush Jr. will certainly continue to play the Bush Doctrine for four years in an attempt to finally turn the tables around.

As far as the United States is concerned, the "greatest harm" of the Bush Doctrine is not the trampling on international law, nor the destruction of the United States' human rights standards, but the fact that the neoconservatism, in disregard of the weakness of the US economy, wants to quickly dominate the world through force, and then turns around and mobilizes global resources to "transfuse" the US economy and create "the best adjustment conditions" for the US economy.

This kind of strategic plan is overbearing, but it is very dangerous.

The United States is the architect of the international order, and this identity has brought countless benefits to the United States, but "innumerable" is not endless after all, and cannot be endless.

If the United States makes good use of this status, no one can know how many years the United States will remain strong, however, the United States does not make good use of it.

He is the gravedigger of God's chosen people, the American Empire.

This problem has always been serious, but because of the international environment at that time, the United States was able to deal with it calmly.

During the Reagan era, there was a "deficit policy" that relied on the Federal Republic of Germany as a financial provider.

After Reagan, the elder Bush took advantage of the prestige of a big victory in the Gulf War, but lost to the hairy boy Clinton in the presidential election, precisely because there was a problem with the funds needed to readjust the economy.

At that time, the Federal Republic of Germany, through the reunification of Germany, had withdrawn huge sums of money from the United States, and thus escaped from American control.

As for the book, it has not yet been fattened, and the time is not enough, so it is impossible to draw enough blood from the book.

In the Clinton era, the US economy was unprecedentedly good, but in fact, this had nothing to do with the Clinton brothers, it was just shit luck.

There were two factors behind the good economic performance of the Clinton era, one was that the economy had been fattened up, and the other was that there was a new economic growth point.

This new economic growth point is computer-based information technology, however, this kind of industrial upgrading requires a huge amount of capital.

This "heavenly amount of money" naturally fell on the head of the book.

The United States relies on the technique of carrots and sticks to cut the small wool of the small book.

The carrot that the United States threw at the United States was to give up the automobile and other industries in which the United States already had an advantage, and the big stick was to pressure the United States to adjust its economic and monetary policies in a direction favorable to the United States, so as to "transfer" the huge amount of money into the United States.

As a result, what the United States got was a "golden period of economic development for 10 years" with the information industry as the pillar, while what he got was a "decade of economic recession" after the collapse of the real estate market.

However, behind the scenery of the United States, the pillars of Great Xia have become decrepit.

In fact, the golden decade of economic development was also a period when the United States was rushing towards eventual collapse.

In this "golden period of economic development", the subprime mortgage and financial atomic bombs caused by the implementation of the unscrupulous low interest rate policy have made the American people extremely happy, and they can spend money unscrupulously, and the savings rate has become negative, turning the United States into a dream land that people all over the world want to dream of infinitely.

The so-called glittering American Dream is derived from this, but in fact, the so-called American Dream is nothing more than an illusory myth of money.

When Bush Jr. took office, he did not make the slightest effort to slow down the frenzied United States, and as a result, just this year, the growth of personal income in the United States this year was about "3 percent," but his personal consumption expenditure increased by "9 percent."

The way Bush Jr. chooses to solve the problem is normal, and any American who comes to power will choose to do so, but the problem is that these living treasures are too eye-catching and low-handed, and they make a mess of things.

Now that George W. Bush has been re-elected, and if he does so for another four years, there will be no turning back for the United States.

Looking back, strength is needed.

The US strategy in the Middle East is bound to fail, and the US system is doomed to have no courage to break the wrists of a strong man, so it can only drag on until it can no longer be delayed.

In addition, it is impossible for the United States to find new economic growth points in the near future, just like the computer-based information technology in the 90s carried the banner of revitalizing the US economy.

So far, it is basically possible to assert that the only effective means by which the United States will not collapse for the time being is to kidnap the whole world, and this is where the confidence of the American people lies if the Bush Doctrine continues to play.

To a certain extent, the Bush Doctrine has taken the stability of the US economy as a "hostage" of the stability of the world economy, and on this basis, it has "bet" that the international community will not see the US economy go bankrupt because it has the ability to create wars or chaos in various places to exert pressure on the countries concerned.

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With Liu Yuting's analysis, the eyes of many giants widened, and they felt from Liu Yuting that the time to make a move against the United States seemed to be not far away.

But, is this possible?

Is the collapse of the United States the best outcome for China?

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The United States' overthrow of Saddam's prestige provoked two very different reactions in the Islamic world, and the two countries of Libya and Iran represented these two very different reactions.

In fact, both Libya and Iran were afraid, but after they were afraid, they reacted very differently.

Libya chose to capitulate, chose to surrender to the United States, and abandoned its nuclear weapons program, while Iran, on the contrary, accelerated its development of nuclear weapons because of fear.

After the overthrow of Iraq, the Iranian nuclear issue has become the protagonist of the drama in the Middle East, and the main content of the drama with Iran as the protagonist is that China, Russia, and the European Union will cooperate with Iran to play the United States.

The drama has been full of ups and downs, with Iran sometimes being tough, sometimes backing down, sometimes hammering in the east and sometimes a mallet in the west, while China, Russia and the European Union have taken turns to play black and white.

As for the United States, its eyes are full of fire, but it is difficult to speak, and some bitterness cannot be spit out.

――――

If you were to choose which country has the most prosperous weather in the world, it would undoubtedly be China.

After China's accession to the WTO, many of China's domestic policies had to be in line with international standards, and this inevitably led to a major relaxation of restrictions in almost all industries.

Real estate, for example, pulls at least three or four percentage points of GDP.

The average Chinese family has 3.5 children, and the children of two families make up a 3.5 family, while the original two families only have two houses, and the gap is 1.5 units.

Undoubtedly, there is a huge demand for just surnames.

What's more, the consumption in the north was originally artificially suppressed, but now it has been liberalized, and it has caught up with the accession to the WTO, and the economy has developed rapidly, so that everyone wants to live better and live in bigger and more spacious houses.

Such a strong demand naturally makes the eyes of developers and everyone involved glow green and energetic.

China's rapid economic development after joining the WTO can be seen from the steel output.

In 2001, China's steel production was 230 million tonnes.

In 2002, it was 310 million tons; By 2006, it had climbed to 740 million tons.

Such a huge increase in demand in China has naturally stimulated the nerves of some people.

Moreover, the United States is deliberately trying to deal with China, and in order to deal with China, the United States does not hesitate to let Russia benefit, and repeatedly pushes up the price of oil.

Pushing up the price of oil can hit China, and pushing up high-speed iron ore is naturally even better. It can be said that the whole world is driving up prices, and the price of all resources as long as China has strong demand.

Originally, the price negotiation mechanism of iron ore was as follows:

Vale, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto are the three major sellers currently involved in the iron ore negotiations, negotiating with buyers from China, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and if there is a buyer and seller who is the first to reach an agreement, the other negotiations will be stopped immediately and the price agreed will be accepted.

This is the long-term agreement price, and once it is negotiated, it will be the same price for a year.

Since China's accession to the WTO, the long-term agreement price of iron ore has risen wildly every year, with an increase of at least 45 percent.

But that's it, many people are still not satisfied.

The first to be challenged were Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton, who made a tough request to the China Iron and Steel Chamber of Commerce: the 2007 iron ore negotiations would need to change the rules to trade 2007 iron ore at a CIF price.

This proposal is undoubtedly in the hope that iron ore prices will rise sharply again.

If it is really done at the CIF price, then there are only two ways, and both are extremely unfavorable to China.

One is that the iron ore seller is also responsible for the transportation from Australia to China and delivers it onshore; The other is that Chinese iron and steel companies bear the freight and price difference.

For the first option, Chinese steel companies will have to break the long-term maritime agreements signed with specific international shipping companies every year.

Moreover, due to the rapid rise in freight prices now, it is obviously not good for Chinese steel companies to disrupt existing long-term maritime agreements and use the shipping fleet of Australian iron ore sellers.

As for the latter, it is even more impossible for Chinese steel companies to take real money out of their pockets and hand it over to the sellers of iron ore.

This was followed by a turnaround in February 2006, when Brazil's Vale reached an agreement with thyssenkrupp, Europe's largest steel company, to increase the price of fine ore in southern Vale by 65 per cent and Carajas by 66 per cent.

In the previous years of iron ore price negotiations, there was only one price, and this is the first time that different prices have been raised for different grades of ore.

This means breaking the old rules.

With Vale taking the lead in breaking the rules, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton naturally have more reason to insist on changing the rules.

Lu Jiucheng, chief executive of Rio Tinto China, has threatened that because Australian mines are rich minerals and should be more expensive than Brazilian mines, Rio Tinto will not accept the price that Vale has already negotiated and will continue to negotiate with the China Iron and Steel Chamber of Commerce.

Subsequently, however, the China Iron and Steel Chamber of Commerce quickly reached a price agreement with Vale, which increased by 65% in line with Vale's price increase.

In this way, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton took a step back from their original position, abandoned the "CIF price", and revised their price increases to 85% to 95% for different products.

However, the China Iron and Steel Chamber of Commerce does not agree with this price increase.

As a result, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton began to press the palace, and they quietly released words that Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Vale, which account for 70% of the world's iron ore producers, will use force majeure as an excuse to reduce the supply to buyers of long-term agreements with China, and will concentrate iron ore in the spot market and sell it at a high price.

This is extremely disadvantageous to China, because according to the agreement, this threat by the seller will not damage the legal contract between the two parties.

In accordance with the rules of the iron ore long-term agreement, the supply was reduced by 10% within the permissible range due to force majeure.

If they do, at least 50 million tonnes of iron ore will enter the spot market, which will greatly damage the interests of Chinese steel companies.

At this time, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton kept talking, threatening: "Many contracts give them the power to choose to reduce supply." ”

As a result, the relationship between Chinese steelmakers and the three major iron ore producers has fallen to a freezing point, but even so, Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Vale are still relentless, and they have to create new pricing rules.

To create new pricing rules, the three major iron ore producers have assembled a team of dozens of people in the hope of developing a new pricing formula for iron ore prices.

There is no doubt that once this new pricing formula comes out, the situation of Chinese steel companies will be even more difficult.

What's more, China's iron and steel companies are fighting alone.

Ben is inextricably linked to European steel companies and these iron ore producers, and their gains from these "connections" will not only offset the loss of rising iron ore prices, but will also leave a lot of money left.

It's almost 2007, and it's time to talk about the price of iron ore in 2008.

――――

Li Qizhi became more and more anxious, and the pressure on him increased.

As the president of the China Iron and Steel Chamber of Commerce, on the Internet, he was about to be branded as a traitor, but in fact, the negotiation of iron ore pricing has failed year after year, and it has nothing to do with him.

Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Vale, these three alone occupy 70% of the world's iron ore market, not to mention, the rise in iron ore prices is beneficial to all iron ore producers, so in this regard, it is difficult for the political axe to exert influence, and this has caused a near-absolute monopoly of the iron ore market.

The enemy occupies a monopoly position and unites as one, while they themselves are scattered, each in its own way, and all they think about is their own selfish interests.

The reason for this situation in China is that China's steel industry is quite chaotic.

There are both historical and practical reasons for this.

Before joining the World Trade Organization, there were only 27 iron and steel enterprises in the entire north, including Yunnan and Guangxi, while there were nearly 4,000 large and small iron and steel enterprises in the south.

After joining the World Trade Organization, the number of iron and steel enterprises in the north increased to 439, while the number of iron and steel enterprises in the south increased dramatically.

Up to now, there are a total of 6,983 large and small iron and steel enterprises in the country, and there are as many as 150,000 large and small iron ore traders.

After the country's substantive reunification, the southern provinces have tremendous autonomy in the economic field, and in some specific economic fields, the central government's ability to intervene is limited.

In a word, it is simply impossible for the central government to solve the problem by administrative means.

What's more, in fact, on this issue, the central government has not done a good job of itself, and the iron and steel enterprises in the north have also surged?

China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) is in a good direction, but at the same time, it is also full of mud and sand, and many problems have arisen in many places, and some of them are very serious.

It is in this relatively disorderly state, driven by profits, that steel companies and traders are engaged in speculative activities.

One of the main reasons why the big iron ore producers such as Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Vale are so confident is because of speculation by Chinese steel companies and traders.

Iron ore prices in the spot market are almost double the price of long-term agreements, but iron ore sellers simply don't have to worry about buyers, and China's expanding production capacity and the impulse to speculate in trade have made it easy for Chinese steel companies and traders to accept prices on the spot market.

Moreover, the facts have also proved that these speculative activities are absolutely profitable, and the steel enterprises and traders involved in the speculation have made double profits over the years.

In this case, the country is in a rut, what can he, the president of the Chamber of Commerce, do?

(To be continued)