381 Butterfly wings
All along, Li Guang had been looking forward to a world war that would change in favor of China and the Naval Resistance Army. Although there were indeed some changes in Li Guang's field of vision, there was no sign of a significant change in the course of World War II.
However, in August of '42, there were several things on the world battlefield that were quite different from the World War II in Li Guang's impression. But Li Guang couldn't accurately judge whether the battle situation was developing in the direction he expected.
In mid-August, a naval battle took place in the waters of the Arctic Ocean in northern Norway. Germany's battleship Tirpitz escorted an unfinished aircraft carrier, the USS Graf, as it quietly navigated the Arctic Ocean into the Pacific Ocean.
The British did not know that the Germans were escorting aircraft carriers to Japan, but the British were well prepared and deployed a whole fleet in the Arctic Ocean in order to keep an eye on the German battleship Tirpitz. As a result, the giant ship was targeted by the British as soon as it went to sea. Therefore, a fierce battle broke out between the two armies, and the poor Germans, under the siege of two British battleships, an aircraft carrier, several heavy cruisers, and more than a dozen destroyers, all one aircraft carrier and one battleship were sunk. And the losses inflicted on the British were only one battleship wounded, and one heavy cruiser sunk.
As a result, the Japanese devils did not get the aircraft carrier either, and the Germans buried a valuable battleship, and the naval power suffered another heavy loss.
Historically, the results of the German battleship with a full load displacement of more than 50,000 tons are hardly worth mentioning. In total, the Bizen made no more than 5 sorties, and its 8 381 guns did not even fire a single shot. And the aircraft carrier Graf was never put into service at all, and sinking or not sinking does not seem to have much impact on World War II.
However, the sinking of the battleship caused a number of personnel changes in the German Navy. The commander of the German Navy, Raeder, was removed from his post by Hitler, and Dönitz, who was proficient in submarine tactics, took over as commander of the German Navy. Dönitz became commander of the German Navy five months earlier than in history.
Dönitz was not the same as his predecessor, Admiral Raeder. He was the only one of all the generals of the Third Reich who could confront Hitler to his face without being blamed, and even the commander of the Luftwaffe, Goering, did not dare to trouble Dönitz when he was in power! Raeder, on the other hand, was often the target of Goering's sprinkling.
However, after the loss of the aircraft carrier, even if Dönitz was able to secure the establishment of aviation for the German Navy, it was of no avail. What's more, Dönitz is too superstitious about the single role of submarine warfare, and even if there are aircraft carriers that do not sink in battle, he will not develop aircraft carriers, he will only increase his efforts to develop submarines. Dönitz became commander of the German Navy five months earlier than in history, and also secured more resources for the German Navy. As a result, Germany's submarine forces have once again entered a stage of rapid expansion, and the impact on the war is immeasurable.
Another naval battle, which took place in the Mediterranean, was fought between British troops and Italy and Germany. June. The British convoy was at great expense, barely supplying the Allies in Malta with two ships. But by August. Supplies are seriously depleted. Had to be reinforced again.
The British fleet was attacked by the German and Italian naval air forces throughout the reinforcement process, and although it finally achieved its goal, it suffered heavy losses. In this naval battle, Britain again lost two aircraft carriers, one of which was a regular aircraft carrier. Historically. In this naval battle, Britain only sank an aircraft carrier and injured an aircraft carrier. The British paid the price, but held on to Malta. Enabling the Allies to strike at the German and Italian supply ships for the African theater in the Mediterranean Sea had a considerable impact on the situation in Africa.
In these two battles, although the losses of the British army were greater than in history, they liberated a fleet that kept an eye on the battleship Tirpitz, and the overall combat effectiveness of the British did not seem to be harmful. In short, even if Li Guang knew history, he didn't know what impact these two battles would have on the direction of World War II, not to mention that he didn't know history at all, so he only regarded these two battles as general intelligence.
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On the battlefields of the Soviet Union, two of the most famous and brutal battles in the history of World War II are now in full swing.
In the northern stronghold of the USSR, Leningrad. German and Finnish troops continued to besiege Leningrad, and unlike in history, the Germans used napalm extensively.
The Battle of Stalingrad, which ranks first in the history of World War II, has also begun.
Li Guang knows a lot about these two land battles in movies and literature, but his level of knowledge is still difficult to see how they differ from history.
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On the European theater, the Allies launched a landing war on the continent. The Allied army of six or seven thousand troops landed in Diep in northern France. With such a small number of troops landing on heavily defended German towns, the result was predictable, with the Allies almost completely annihilated.
In this battle, the General Staff of the Naval Resistance Army made an extremely profound study of this battle and came to the conclusion that the Allied forces were strategically wrong, and their tactics were even more excellent. The battle was commanded by the British Admiral Mountbatten, and it is said that in order to take it by surprise, there was no artillery preparation before the landing, you must know that it was not a deserted beach, but a heavily guarded town port, I don't know if the British were whimsical or idiots.
In the final analysis, this was a political battle launched by the allies in order to prevaricate the Soviet Union's Stalin, a show, and only a pretext for prevaricating Stalin's demand for opening up a second battlefield. It was simply impossible for the British Empire to launch a full-scale counteroffensive in Europe during this period in order to solve the dilemma faced by the Soviet Union. However, in order to maintain the harmony of the allies on the surface, a force of six or seven thousand people was buried, and the cost was not small.
After the war, Admiral Mountbatten, commander of the British landing at Diorp, was transferred to India and succeeded General Alexander as commander-in-chief of the Anglo-Indian forces.
And General Alexander, an old acquaintance, was transferred to Africa by Churchill and became the commander of the British army in Africa. On the battlefield in North Africa, after a series of heavy defeats, Churchill changed generals, and British General Montgomery began to command the British Army to fight against Rommel, a famous German general known as the Desert Fox.
In terms of rhythm, it seems that the history of World War II is no different from the original time and space. But when you look closely, it's quite different. In the original African theater, the Allied forces had a tank ratio of 1053 to 573 against the Axis forces, but due to the fierce fighting between the American army and the Japanese army in the Pacific, they took away a part of the tanks that were originally supported by the United States to support the British army, and now the tank ratio of the two sides is 853 to 573.
Supplies. Since Britain could receive supplies from the United States and Africa in the direction of the Suez Canal, the Allies clearly had the upper hand. The Axis forces were at a disadvantage because the British army was holding Malta, and the supply routes were blocked.
As for the African war situation, the only thing Li Guang knows about will be the final outcome of the Battle of El Alamein, what kind of sparks will be sparked by the duel between Rommel and Montgomery, the decisive battle has not yet come, and it is not yet known who will die.
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If we talk about the above battles, Li Guang cannot come up with an accurate analysis. In the end, how is the situation different from the original history? But in the South American and Central Pacific theaters, it is clear that history has changed dramatically.
Although the war in South America is still mainly fought between Chile and Peruvian Bolivia, the feud between Argentina and Brazil, the other two major powers in South America, is also sharpening, and both sides are raising arms and supplies in various ways. Brazil, by contrast, seems to have more potential. Recently, the United States has provided hundreds of millions of dollars to Brazil in order to control it. Preparing to establish a steel industry system for Brazil.
But Argentina, the richest country in South America, is also not to be underestimated. You must know that Argentina was the envy of even Europeans before the war, and Europeans had a mantra: be as rich as the Argentines. This shows the enormous war potential of Argentina.
This war within South America seems to exist independently of the world war, and there is no obvious distinction between the Axis and the allies, but it has already shown its influence. First of all. The export of grain and mineral products to these South American countries has been severely hampered. Due to the deep roots of the Haitang State in Uruguay, Uruguay's agricultural products are almost monopolized by the Haitang State, and the good relations with Peruvian Bolivia have led to the export of a large number of weapons and ammunition. Among them, mainly mortars and mortar shells, in exchange for a large number of minerals such as non-ferrous metals, as well as explosives. For a small country like Haitang, which is not in great demand, it has little impact. But for the British Empire, it was already a very serious matter, and by the end of '42 South America was able to provide less than half of the grain and mineral products that Britain could provide.
Li Guang can be sure that the situation in South America may not affect the deployment of military forces for the allies as a whole, but in terms of material supplies, the war potential of the allies has begun to be weakened. But it is impossible to quantify how big the impact will be.
In the Central Pacific, however, there was a fierce battle between Japan and the United States, but Li Guang could confirm that the tide of the war was turning in the direction he expected.
Prior to August, U.S. and Japanese fighting was mainly in the southeastern part of the island of New Guinea, with U.S. Admiral MacArthur facing the Japanese Army. The two sides of the war grew from 50,000 to 250,000 Americans, and the Japanese army grew from one division to five divisions.
From June to August, there were already three naval battles here, and the U.S. Pacific Fleet needed to replenish and recuperate after the Battle of Midway, and the Allies were severely underarmed, all of which ended in Japanese naval victories. The remnants of the naval forces of Australia, Britain, and the Netherlands in the Pacific were almost wiped out, but the American army also completed the reinforcement of troops and materials to New Guinea, so that the American general MacArthur would not be quickly defeated. According to the Americans' comments on these three naval battles, it is still the same: tactically we lost, but strategically we won.
These three naval battles, as well as the fierce battles that took place on land, Li Guang can be sure that they are definitely not happening in the history of another time and space.
The stubborn stumbling of the US Army and the Japanese Army on the island of New Guinea objectively forced US President Roosevelt to slightly change his strategic deployment first in Europe and then in Asia.
Faced with the momentum of the Japanese army, Roosevelt had to send a large number of personnel and materials to reinforce New Guinea. Politically, Roosevelt could not order the US Army to retreat again, and the US Army MacArthur was now cornered, and had to fight the Japanese in New Guinea in harsh conditions for the sake of his reputation and honor.
Originally, the U.S. military had only 350,000 troops in Australia, and all of them were rookie troops who had never been on the battlefield. Now, MacArthur has mobilized 250,000 troops, but he is still being defeated, and the US military has to massively increase its troops in Australia to support the New Guinea battlefield. By August, the U.S. military had begun to add 300,000 troops to the Pacific theater. And these armies were supposed to be used in the African theater or in the European theater. Along with the adjustment of the US military, a large number of strategic materials originally used in the European and African battlefields were also transferred to Australia.
The United States is strong, but the United States had less than three million troops in the middle of '42. Of those, only a million were troops trained before the outbreak of the Pacific War. In fact, there are only 1 million troops that can be sent to the battlefield, and once 650,000 of them are occupied in the Pacific theater, then the United States will have very few forces that can be used in other directions.
In August, the historic Battle of Kuah broke out. The U.S. Navy played the leading role in the battle.
Li Guangbei's history is not clear, but he knows some fragments of the Pacific theater at this stage. He was sure that the battle that was taking place now was many times larger than the Battle of Kuah Island in the same period in history.
No matter when the campaign ends, no matter how the United States judges it after the campaign ends. It is to continue to judge: tactical failure. Strategically victorious. Or something else.
Li Guang can confirm one point, that is, the US strategy of putting Europe first and then Asia is changing. And this is what Li Guang, the butterfly, is most looking forward to seeing, and this change is even more important than the victory of the Naval Resistance Army in one or two battles. This is the change that is most in line with the interests of China and the Maritime Resistance Forces.
There is a more famous evaluation of the historical Battle of Kuah: this protracted battle exhausted Japan's war potential, and the battle ended. The U.S. military switched to a full-scale offensive. And for the battle in front of us, which is definitely many times larger than the scale in history, it is certain. will consume more of Japan's war potential.
on this. Li Guang can be described as rejoicing.
On the battlefield that Li Guang could not analyze, history had actually changed considerably, but Li Guang did not know it.
There are two main changes:
First, the Allies were not able to fully crack the German military code. In the original history of World War II, the U.S. military cracked the naval military code of the Japanese army, and the British army cracked the military code of the German army. And these two brilliant cracks. It's all about submarines. And they were all made into movies by later generations. The British captured a German submarine and thus obtained the German cipher machine, while the United States obtained the cipher by salvaging a Japanese submarine that had been sunk in Australian waters. However, because of Li Guang's butterfly, the German submarine used a high-energy battery early. And with the snorkel technology, the losses of the submarine were much less than in history. I don't know what the specific reason is, anyway, the British army did not have access to the German cipher machine, although the British worked hard to crack the German cipher, but the progress was not fast, and it was not enough for the British to get the German intelligence in time. The slightly larger losses of the British navy in the resupply operation to Malta may have something to do with this. Due to the lack of intelligence, Britain was unable to strike more effectively against German submarine warfare, so that the losses of merchant ships were even heavier.
Secondly, the submarine forces of the German Navy due to the fact that there are three major changes compared to history - batteries, snorkel technology, and quantity. The harm to the Allied merchant ships was much greater than in history, but Li Guang, who had been numb to the news of the sinking of the merchant ships, did not know how much had changed. Historically, in 1942, the number of submarines in the German army reached the peak of World War II at 393 by the end of the year, but at this time and space, in August, the number of German submarines had reached 400, and they were still being launched and installed at a rate of 30 per month.
Until the British Navy and the US Navy had acquired more effective technical means to contain submarines, this period was a happy time for German submarines. Historically, in the first half of '42, German submarines sank an astonishing six million tons of Allied merchant ships. In this time and space, this tonnage is even more staggering, with the loss of more than 10 million tons causing the Allies to suffer huge losses in materials and transportation capacity.
Half a year, 10 million tons. This means that in just one year, the entire British merchant ship will be almost completely wiped out. Britain will be trapped in the British Isles. In the second half of the year, although Britain and the United States adopted relatively perfect escort tactics, they failed to fully contain the attack of German submarines.
What is the concept of 10 million tons of merchant ships plus the loss of cargo? The direct losses are about $4 billion, and the indirect losses are more than $6 billion.
If you look at the total military spending of the United States in 42 years, you can see how terrifying this figure is. The total amount of foreign propaganda that the United States spent on the war in '42 was $100 billion, but in reality it was less than $80 billion. Moreover, because it has just been transferred to the wartime system, the production capacity has not been fully utilized, and in addition to its own use, it can only provide less than 10 billion US dollars of materials and ammunition to the outside world.
According to the current rate of Allied merchant ship losses, Britain's war capability is actually much weaker than it was at the beginning of '42.
No matter how rich the United States is and how strong its industrial production capacity is, it cannot afford such a protracted loss. As for Britain, despite the strong support of the United States, its military spending has already accounted for more than 60 percent of its gross national income, and it is actually on the verge of bankruptcy, and its economy is on the verge of collapse. In order to maintain domestic production and life, Britain now has to draw more fleets to maintain domestic supplies, supplies on the battlefield, so that it has no hands and feet to exert influence on the Indian Ocean.
In September of the 42nd year in history, a large number of American liberty ships had been launched, and for the first time in the Allies, merchant ships were replenished faster than they were sunk. But judging from the current situation, this time will be greatly delayed.
All of the above is also the reason why the British army could not spare troops to put troops on the Ceylon battlefield and the navy into the Indian Ocean. As a result, the Naval Resistance Force, a force with a total strength of just over 50,000 troops, has almost become the only military force of the Allied forces in the Indian Ocean, and has become a vital strategic presence of the Allied forces.
And because of the presence of German and Japanese submarines in the Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean is not as dangerous as the Atlantic, but it is also not calm. The combat effectiveness of this weak and small fleet of the Naval Resistance Force may be questionable, but its anti-submarine capability is not bad at all, and it has become an escort force in the Indian Ocean that the United States, Britain, and even the Soviet Union have to rely on.
In August 42, the fleet of the Naval Resistance Force no longer had its main warships, but it became the focus of attention of all parties in the world. In fact, all countries have to pay attention to the naval resistance force, once the naval resistance force does not exist in this area, the shipping routes in the Indian Ocean will be completely interrupted, and it is really difficult for the allies to send their fleets to fight and escort in the Indian Ocean again. As a result, the Naval Resistance Army became famous, becoming a force on the battlefield of the world war that could even influence the situation of the war to some extent.
The butterfly effect, after many years of hard work by Li Guang, has finally begun to show its power, as for where this storm that has begun will blow the world towards, it remains to be seen. (To be continued......)