The whole world has seen from the victory of the German blitzkrieg the astonishing power of modern mechanical warfare that can turn the clouds and rain in an instant and decide victory or defeat, but no other country has had time to adjust the construction, establishment, equipment, ideology, tactics, and training of the armed forces to a mode that suits modern warfare. In addition, the Soviet purge at the end of the 30s left the Soviet army with a traumatic blow: a large number of experienced senior generals and key military personnel were executed, and substitute officers generally lacked ability and experience, which seriously undermined the combat effectiveness of the Soviet army. In the Soviet-Finnish War, the Soviet Union invested millions of troops and made heavy sacrifices to defeat Finland, which was a small country and a small army, which shows the heavy blow of the Great Purge to the Soviet army.

3. Strategic Situation:

Before the war against the Soviet Union, Germany had already organized a strategic alliance against the Soviet Union, including Finland, Hungary, Spain, Romania, Bulgaria, Italy, Turkey and other countries, all of which sent troops to varying degrees to participate in the war against the Soviet Union. From north to south: The armies deployed on the territory of Finland, German East Prussia, former Poland, Hungary, and Romania formed a crescent-shaped encirclement of the Soviet Union. The strength of the multi-pronged offensive forces and the concentration of assault forces were all directed at the key points of the Soviet Union: the German-Norwegian Army attacked Murmansk and Arkhangelsk in the Arctic Circle, intending to cut off the only northern supply port of the Soviet Union in wartime;

Finland's Karelian Army Group and Army Group Southeast, in coordination with Army Group North in Germany to attack Leningrad, in an attempt to regain the territory lost in the Soviet-Finnish war; Army Group North wanted to pass through the three Baltic countries and capture Leningrad, the holy land of the October Revolution in the Soviet Union; Army Group Center advanced along the axes of attack of Minsk, Smosopsk, and Moscow, aiming directly at the heart of the Soviet Union; The German Army Group Center assaulted Kyiv with the task of seizing the abundant strategic resources such as grain, oil, and coal in Ukraine; The Romanian 3rd and 4th armies, together with Army Group German, entered Ukraine in revenge for the forced cession of land by the Soviet Union. In contrast to Germany, the Soviet Union was in an extremely isolated position in the international community: the non-aggression pact with Germany was also cut off from the hope of joining forces with Britain and France; The consequence of the attack on Finland was the expulsion of the USSR from the League of Nations; Actions such as the partition of Poland with Germany, the forced entry of the three Baltic states into the Soviet Union, and the issuance of ultimatums to force Romania to surrender Bessarabia and Northern Bukovina further discredited the Soviet Union in the world and created many powerful enemies.

In addition, the Soviet troops deployed on the western border were too far forward and lacked sufficient depth. Once the defensive line was quickly broken through by the Germans, it was easy to be divided and surrounded. In the early days of the Soviet-German War, the Soviet army was surrounded and annihilated in the form of an entire army and division, and the number of troops lost was as high as one million.

Zhang Jun Considering the above factors, the German army did have enough ability to annihilate the vast majority of the Soviet armed forces, occupy the three strategic cities in the north, central and south, advance to the front line of the Ural Mountains, and complete the goals set by the "Barbarossa Plan". As long as the Germans occupied the elite part of the Soviet Union, controlled important cities, mastered transportation hubs, and developed strategic resources, only a small armed force would be needed to calmly deal with the counterattack of the Asian part of the Soviet Union. Although the remnants of the Soviet Union, which had lost the European part, were vast, the population was sparse, the economy was backward, the materials were scarce, and the transportation was inconvenient, so it was unable to muster enough forces to challenge Germany, which had occupied the elite part of the Soviet Union.

It was not for nothing that Hitler considered the territory of the USSR beyond the objectives covered by the "Barbarossa Plan" to be a barren wasteland, not worth occupying. If the Soviet Union had reached that point, it would have been no different from defeat. Therefore, it was indeed possible for Germany to defeat the Soviet Union.

Due to the muddy rainy season and terrible winter of the Soviet Union, it will also greatly affect the logistics supply and combat capability of the German army, which may lead to its inability to complete the "Barbarossa Plan" before the winter of 1941, resulting in a long war between the Soviet Union and Germany.

If the war dragged on beyond 1942, would it still be possible for the Germans to defeat the Soviet Union? The answer is: Yes! Historically, Germany was not able to win a quick victory in 1941, but it still achieved a brilliant victory: a large number of Soviet troops were annihilated, large swathes of Soviet territory were occupied, and the German army remained in the heart of the Soviet Union waiting for the next attack. If Germany can continue to annihilate a large number of Soviet troops so that they have lost a lot of blood and have no time to replenish them, continue to occupy Soviet territory so that they lose the basis for a comeback, and continue to seize the resources of the Soviet Union to feed the war, it can still eliminate the Soviet Union's war strength and deprive the Soviet Union of its potential to continue fighting, and thus win victory.

Of course, the Soviet Union will also get the most important respite: countless military service people have joined the army, dozens or hundreds of new divisions have gone to the front, a large number of factories have moved east to the Ural Mountains, and hundreds of weapons and equipment have left the production line? The war strength of the Soviet Union gradually expanded, and the quick decisive battle between the Soviet Union and Germany gradually evolved into a long-term confrontation between the comprehensive strength of the two countries.

In the event of further victories for the USSR on the battlefield, the scales of victory would finally tip in favor of the USSR. Germany's eventual failure to suppress the Soviet Union's war potential and transform it into war strength will be an important reason for Germany's defeat.

There are also many factors that should not be overlooked. If Germany fails, it must be a combination of many factors, and it is definitely not just a one-sided decision of one or two factors.

1. Allied Adversaries:

Although Germany organized the European Union, controlled most of the European continent, and became a veritable European empire, it created too many opponents. The Soviet Union, Britain, Canada, the United States, South America, Africa, Asia and many other countries that were enemies of Germany. They have mastered most of the world's population, resources, materials, economy and technological strength, especially the United States, which has a strong war potential, a country that will sooner or later declare war on Germany, adding a decisive weight to the balance of victory of the Allies against the European Union: compared with the European Union, the Allies have a fourfold advantage in manpower, a threefold advantage in steel, a greater advantage in oil, and a powerful opponent also makes it impossible for Germany to concentrate all its efforts against the Soviet Union. North Africa has also maintained a sizable force to prevent possible future attacks.

Germany invested about 70 percent of the total army strength in the Soviet Union, far from doing its best. And after the outbreak of the Soviet-German war, a full-fledged anti-EU coalition will eventually be formed. Not only would the Soviet Union receive military support from countries led by the United States and Britain, but even Japan, which had been hostile for a long time, could sign a non-aggression pact with the Soviet Union so that it could free up its hands to resist the German attack with all its might.

It was like Germany tying one hand and fighting against the Soviet Union, which could go all out and take a break, and the disadvantages were very obvious.

2. European Union of Nations:

Although the European Union of States was formed, it was actually difficult to really integrate all the forces of the European Union, and it was common for the European Union to quarrel for several months over an issue in later generations, and the European Union of States at this time could be much better.

For example, Italy did not notify Germany and rashly attacked East Africa, North Africa, Albania, and Greece, and as a result, the Italian army was vulnerable and suffered a crushing defeat. It not only disrupted the balance of power in the Balkans and Africa, which was originally in line with Germany's expectations, but also forced Germany to send troops to save its disgraced comrades, which indirectly led to the dispersion of troops and the delay of the "Barbarossa Plan".

Hitler helped Franco during the Spanish Civil War. However, when Hitler hoped that Franco would reciprocate and implement the "non-Nix plan" he had formulated, occupying the Strait of Gibraltar and choking Britain's lifeline, he was disappointed by the answer, which showed that Spain also had its own small calculations.

The signing of the Soviet-German non-aggression pact brought down the Japanese cabinet en masse. Soon after, Japan also signed a non-aggression pact with the Soviet Union, choosing between "northward expansion" and "southward expansion" as the national focus. At this time, the situation of Germany and Japan flanking the Soviet Union no longer existed, and Zhang Jun also had to bear some responsibility, because Zhang Jun had always been fully opposed to the alliance with Japan, and Hitler did not want to hurt his "little radish head's heart", so he rejected the olive branch from Japan.

3. War Command:

The combat quality of the German officers and men was unparalleled, but the command of the German army's top brass was also fraught with problems: the German High Command (OKW) and the Army General Command (OKH), which Hitler had established single-handedly, had overlapping responsibilities and overlapping powers. They are intrigued and compete for power; There was often disagreement and mutual distrust between Hitler and the senior German generals. Hitler was arbitrary, too centralized, did not delegate power, and overstepped his command. Not only has it stubbornly gone its own way in the overall strategic direction, but it has even interfered with operational command down to the battalion and company level, and the army is unable to make rational dispositions according to the battlefield situation. The German commander laughed at himself: "Without the order of the Führer, I would not dare to move the post of the sentry from the door to the window." ”

Historically, the major decision-making mistakes of the German army in World War II are as follows, to name a few: After the Battle of Moscow, after the defeat of the German army, Hitler resolutely refused to retreat, which directly led to the elimination of a large number of German troops and greatly damaged their vitality. The following year, the Germans no longer had the strength to launch a full-scale offensive, so they had to carry out a major offensive; In 1942, the Germans attacked the Volga and the Caucasus at the same time, but as a result, the forces were scattered, and neither of the two strategic goals was achieved; The Battle of Stalingrad, which threw the entire division and regiment of the elite German field troops into the meat grinder of the city, causing a large number of casualties; After the Sixth Army was surrounded, it was not allowed to retreat and was completely annihilated by the Soviet army; The offensive period of the Battle of Kursk was first dragged on and on, and turned into a forced offensive positional station instead of a blitzkrieg; Later, at the most critical moment of the war, several elite SS Panzer divisions on the Southern Front were transferred to deal with the Allied landing in Italy, resulting in the loss of the last hope of winning the Battle of Bastion...... (To be continued.) )