Chen Moran carefully and slowly pushed open the file containing the documents in front of his eyes, slowly got up from his desk, and paced around the office - he stood in front of the window, watching the pigeons in the square in front of the palace, at this time those pigeons were swarming up and down in the square in front of the palace, unhurriedly foraging for food, the new mayor of Nanjing, an official who had studied in England, perhaps because of his nostalgia for the street pigeons in London, which led him to introduce street pigeons in Nanjing.

Turning around, Chen Moran looked at the person in charge of intelligence, took a few puffs of cigarettes in a row, and after smoking the remaining half of a cigar, he settled in front of the table, nodded his head at the file file, and asked:

"Well, is there any information other than the information in the report?"

"Your Majesty, after the Rasputin incident, the social mood of disillusionment with the war and the government has become stronger, and the situation has become more and more out of control......"

"Who gave you this information, and are the sources reliable?"

"Completely reliable, most of these intelligence analyses are conclusions made by intelligence agents stationed in Russia."

During the report, Zhang Jing hung his head slightly, and in front of His Majesty, he maintained 100% respect and tame from the heart, as in the past.

"Hmmm......"

In response, Chen Moran did not continue, and then he stood at the table, pulled the report in front of him, and read it again:

"Grand Duke Pavlovich immediately left Petrograd for Persia, at the behest of General Baratov, commander of Posttforce; Grand Duke Yusupov immediately left Petrograd and went into exile to the Golden Finch estate in the Kursk province. In the middle of the night, the exiles left Petrograd by car. On the same day, all newspapers that reported the news of Rasputin's murder were ordered to cease publication. A few days later, Golitsyn was appointed prime minister, which Rasputin strongly recommended during his lifetime.

In this regard, all circles in Russia were extremely disappointed, and an official in a high-ranking position personally said to our diplomats:

"Life in Russia has long been terrible, and now it is becoming more and more unbearable, because it is no longer bad management, but a fool of the people. It was Rasputin who controlled Russia. Although he was killed, in the end the situation not only did not get better, but worse. …… The Golitsyn clique has simply led Russia to a dead end...... As a friend, I do not think that there is any hope of salvation for the Russian Empire"

The famous Russian poet Blok wrote in the newspaper:

"As a result, the bullet that killed Rasputin is falling on the heart of the ruling dynasty."

After Rasputin's assassination, the Tsar was overwhelmed with melancholy, and he lived in seclusion, slurred speech, and hesitated in the face of things. According to the nobles and high-ranking people who came and went in and out of the court:

"Nicholas II has actually given way internally."

At the moment the tsar himself lived in his fatalism, and by this time only he and very few people remained convinced that the tsar was the god of Russia, that the people's allegiance to the monarch was based on religious sentiments, and that the revolution would not take place. In mid-January, the royalist, Duma deputy Mitrotsky, in his report to Nikolai, asserted under the name of "Russian Orthodox Christians in Kiev": "Although the left-wing press has intensified the propaganda of revolutionary ideas...... But the majority of working people are still very conservative and loyal to the system. Nicholas II commented on the report: "This report deserves attention. ”……

Empress Alexandra quickly recovered from the melancholy of losing her "holy fool" and worrying about the health of her son Alexei, and she had to do everything in her power to assist her husband in maintaining the rule of the Romanov dynasty.

The Tsar and Empress became even more glued after Rasputin's death, and in order to comfort the Empress and stabilize the court, the Tsar decided to stay in Tsarskoye and not return to the base camp.

After the Rasputin incident, social sentiment about the war and government frustration intensified, and the situation in Russia became more and more out of control. …,

In the upper classes, a palace coup was already brewing. In January 1917, General Klimov returned to the capital from the front and said to the Duma: "If you decide to take this extreme measure, then we will support you." The Octoctologist Hitrovsky shouted angrily: "There is no need to pity or appease him when he is destroying Russia." In a heated debate, Brosilov said: "If we were to choose between the Tsar and Russia - then I would follow Russia." Constitutionalist Shengariov commented on this:

"The general's words are right: a coup d'état cannot be avoided. …… But who decides to do it? ””

Looking at the situation in Russia mentioned in these reports, Chen Moran was silent, walked in the office for a long time, and then stood in front of the intelligence director, and looked at Zhang Jing's extremely deferential-looking face scrutinically.

After being silent for a long time, Chen Moran asked again:

"Now you tell me in what direction the current situation in Russia will develop,"

This......

Facing His Majesty's question, Zhang Jing thought for a moment, although it was repeatedly emphasized in the reports of the analysts of the Intelligence Bureau that the Russian Empire already had all the factors for a revolution, but the contact had been announced to the public, and the crown prince and Princess Nasha were about to get engaged, he still hesitated for a moment, and then said.

"Based on the analysis of the situation in Russia by intelligence analysts, we believe that there are extremely strong destabilizing factors within the Russian Empire, and these destabilizing factors are very likely to lead to a revolution in the Russian Empire!"

After citing this conclusion, Zhang Jing added.

"There may be a second possibility, Your Majesty."

In the reports of hundreds of Russian intelligence analysts from the Imperial Intelligence Agency, they combined intelligence analysis and then analyzed various possibilities through illustration comparisons, and over the past many years, through professional training, the Imperial Intelligence Agency has already established an extremely excellent intelligence analysis department.

"Oh? Is there a second possibility? ”

Chen Moran has always believed that a revolution will break out in Russia, and the Chinese butterfly has not changed the fate of the Russian Empire, at least not their current fate.

"On the basis of the information available to them, the analysts believe that there are two forces in Russia at present: one is the republican revolutionaries - many of them, many of whom are nobles and high-ranking officials - openly support the abolition of tsarism, and among them are divided into radicals and moderates, and even within these two factions there are internal divisions. At the same time, the upper echelons of Russia are dominated by nobles and high-ranking officials. They preferred to remove the Tsar and thus put an end to internal problems, and they preferred Grand Duke Mikhail to the crown prince......"

Zhang Jing is reluctant to say any more, because there is still a variable, that is, the wife of Grand Duke Mikhail, and Grand Duke Mikhail has only one daughter, and now his daughter is about to marry the crown prince of China, which will directly lead to a series of changes.

However, in the view of intelligence analysts, this may lead to a series of variables, but there is also the possibility of another variable, of course, that variable is only 2.13% likely, so it can be said that the probability is very small, and it is not worth mentioning at all.

"Oh? It seems that the Intelligence Bureau has really put a lot of thought into this matter. ”

Regarding the analysis of the Intelligence Bureau, Chen Moran nodded in deep agreement, the conclusion they gave was exactly what happened in history, but they ignored a variable, that is, the revolutionary radical faction in Russia - the Bolsheviks - is far different from any revolutionary faction that the Intelligence Bureau knows and comes into contact with, so their conclusions will be fundamentally deviated due to ignorance. …,

"I prefer to believe that there will be a revolution in Russia."

"Your Majesty, the probability of a revolution is 42.3%!"

While reminding His Majesty, Zhang Jing added.

"And the coup d'état is likely to be 38.5%".

"It seems that the two are comparable!"

Smiling, Chen Moran clicked on the report on the desktop.

"It seems that in any case, there will definitely be a change of dynasty in Russia, whether it is a revolution or a coup d'état!"

"Yes, Your Majesty, and because of this, I hope that Your Majesty will reconsider the matter of providing loans to Russia, we should wait for the end of the current chaos before making a decision, if it is a revolution, then after the regime is stabilized, help the Russians, if it is to replace the Tsar, we can also make the same decision, and the most important point in this regard is how China can ensure China's interests in this turmoil!"

Out of his understanding of the political situation in Russia, after learning that the cabinet had agreed to provide Russia with a loan of 400 million rubles for the maintenance and repair of the Trans-Siberian Railway, Zhang Jing took an attitude of opposition.

"What if this is more beneficial to China?"

"The minister doesn't know that for the time being, the chaos in the political situation is likely to make it difficult to recover the loan."

"It's good to be honest with your answer. You have engaged in so much intelligence work, you should know that the rise of a dynasty can certainly obtain the most benefits, but the fall of a dynasty can also obtain unimaginable benefits. Is that so? ”

Reason, at this time, Chen Moran will not say that the loans to Russia are to some extent only for this year's reasons, 70% of those loans are covered by railway materials provided by China, even if there is a revolution, the actual losses are very limited, after all, the vast majority of the materials have not been delivered, and the loans are also deposited in the Russian branch of the Bank of China.

"Your Majesty......"

The look of his subordinates who wanted to speak made Chen Moran smile slightly:

"I have my intentions in considering, but you don't need me to teach you in your profession, so do what you know within the scope of your profession! As for this, I think the Cabinet has Cabinet considerations! ”

That won't be thinking about it for long...... Groaning, Chen Moran once again cast his eyes out of the window, looking towards the north, soon, history will change......