Chapter 47: A Powerful Relationship
As we all know, Yan Yuyu is a hard-line leader similar to Wang Xiqing.
Affected by the cooling of relations between the Republic and the EU in the past few years, Yan Jing not only did not attach great importance to bilateral relations after taking office, but even did not regard the EU as the object of his visit. You must know that since Zhao Rundong became the head of state, every president of the republic has regarded the EU as the object of his visit after each election, and after visiting several major allies, he has visited Europe, or he has directly visited Europe. In addition to visiting major allies such as Pakistan, Thailand, and North Korea in the second half of that year, Yan Jingyu first visited India, South Africa, Brazil, Venezuela, Nigeria, and Egypt at the beginning of the year, and only at the end of the year did he attend the Brain Conference of the Republic of China, the United States, Russia, France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland, Iran, Pakistan, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, North Korea, Australia, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Sudan and other major signatories to the London Treaty, which are also the most powerful countries in the world in terms of comprehensive national strength, visited France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Austria and other EU countries by the way, and it was not an official visit, but an unofficial visit.
In the words of the European news media, Yan's move means that the relationship between the republic and the EU has entered a "frozen period".
In fact, this sentence should be said the other way around, that is, the relationship between the republic and the EU will regress first before Yan Jingyu will put the EU on the back burner in his diplomatic visits.
Either way, it's not necessarily a good thing.
Since the beginning of the year, with the adoption of the agreement by the Council of the European Union to provide assistance for Turkey's post-war reconstruction, Greece abstained from voting in the vote and did not assume the obligation of aid, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands and Belgium and other countries have successively pledged to provide Turkey with varying amounts of reconstruction funds. Relations between the republic and the European Union began to regress. The new address of this site has been changed to: Gangkou Yang... 8。 Lion, please land the valve messenger!
In any case, suppressing Turkey and striving to establish an independent Kurdish state in the occupied areas in the years after the expiration of the armistice agreement is an important part of the republic's Middle East strategy, and the EU's help to Turkey in post-war reconstruction is to oppose the country, and it does not want the republic to dismember Turkey, and it does not want the republic to gain a decisive say in the Middle East.
Indeed, in the same year, the Military Intelligence Agency obtained information proving that France, Germany, Italy and other major EU member states unified their diplomatic tone after the outbreak of the Middle East war, and formulated a strategic plan to help Turkey carry out strategic reconstruction and stabilize the eastern barrier of the EU.
This is understandable, after all, Turkey is a transcontinental country and the eastern barrier of the European Union. As Turkey's neighbors, such as Iran, Iraq, and Syria, became allies or quasi-allies of the republic, and Greece, which has close ties with the republic in southeastern Europe, countries such as France, Germany, and Italy were naturally on guard. One could even say. As long as countries such as France, Germany, and Italy still want the EU to make a difference in the international community, they will have to oppose the Republic on the Turkish issue.
As a result, by the time Yan Jing put on his own, the EU was only the fourth largest trading partner of the Republic.
You must know that until the concave year, the EU was still the largest trading partner of the Republic, and it was not until the year of the mouth that it was crossed by India, and to the fourth, it was surpassed by ASEAN and the African Union. ASEAN is easy to understand, after all, in addition to the Philippines and Indonesia, the other member states of ASEAN are allies of the republic, and have long been tied to the republic, the establishment of a sound free trade system, before the European Union has not been able to pass, mainly affected by the Great Depression, with the economic recovery, ASEAN will definitely be the main trading partner of the republic, and even India, become the republic's largest trading partner. Falling below the AU is a bit too much to say. Although in the past few years, the relationship between the Republic and the African Union has progressed rapidly, not only helping to modernize several friendly countries such as Sudan. It has also helped many backward African countries such as Nigeria, Romeroon, and Wangguojin to speed up their economic development, but as the most backward region in the world, the total trade volume of the African Union is very limited, less than one-fifth of that of the European Union, and it has been crossed by the African Union, which can only show that the relationship between the European Union and the Republic is indeed wrong.
Of course, trade regression can only be counted as an inducement.
If it had been not Yan Jingyu who had come to power in the year of Likou, but a leader like Gu Weimin, I am afraid that the relationship between the Republic and the EU would not have regressed. In any case, the EU occupies a very important place in the framework of the international relations of the republic. More importantly, there is still a lot of room for growth in the economic construction of the republic, especially in terms of per capita gross national product and per capita income, and the republic's economy can still grow steadily at a rate of about one year for more than one year. In fact, after the Middle East war, the economic growth of the republic slowed down, and it fell to the lock at that time, and then returned to Anhui, and the expected growth in the year was only gills. In other words, the republic needs to drive economic growth, and strengthening cooperation with the European Union can do just that.
The international pattern has been decided, and the spheres of influence of the two major powers have been determined. … Roar;. It is very difficult for the Republic to negotiate with the countries of the Second World of the Shogunate, that is, to increase economic growth through trade and capital investment, and can only make a fuss about a few major economies.
The European Union is the second largest economy in the world after the republic, and it is an economy with great potential. According to the general forecast of the international economic assessment agency, as military integration and political integration are on the right track, the EU economy will definitely usher in a new round of high growth driven by infrastructure construction.
Although the EU's basic situation, especially the level of technology in key areas that are closely related to the development of productivity, it is unlikely that the Republic will become the world's largest economy. Because the core technology of the "electric revolution" has been mastered, and the leading position in this field has become very clear through vigorous development over the years, if the authorities of the Republic can solve the problems of an aging population and a low fertility rate, they will be able to usher in a new period of economic growth. With the gradual effect of various policies to encourage childbirth, the fertility rate has begun to rise, and the problem of aging has been solved, it is expected that the economic growth of the Republic will be excessive at the end of the field or the beginning of the decade, and the growth rate will continue for more than a year. By the beginning of the early years, as the population of the republic rose again above state B and became the most populous country among the world's major economies, the total population of the republic was likely to fall below the EU, and the total economic volume of the republic would certainly be above that of the EU. However, no one can deny that the EU does have a very huge potential for development, especially in the middle of the decade, the EU is likely to become the most populous of the three major economies, and the population of the republic is likely to be less than 800 million, while the EU may exceed 800 million, and the population of the United States is about 700 million, thus becoming the world's largest market body. The address of this site has been changed to: just a mouthful of milk... 8。 Please log in to the valve!
All in all, from economic point of view, the republic has no reason to be at odds with the EU.
The problem is that Yan Jingyu is definitely not a leader who takes economic construction as the number one political goal.
Although it cannot be denied Yan Jingyu's ability to engage in economic construction, you must know that during his tenure as chairman of Guangxi, he not only accomplished the undertaking that Wang Yuanqing did not complete, but also built Guangxi into the richest region of the republic, and it was also the main window of the republic's face to ASEAN. After returning to the Central Committee, Yan Jingyu's first position was Premier of the State Council, and his main work during this period was to be responsible for the country's economic construction. Even after serving as Deputy Minister of State. Because Gu Weimin also has a hand in economic management, so he did not get much opportunity to perform, Yan Jingyu also made a great contribution to national construction, the most praised is in foreign trade, straightening out the relationship between the Republic and many allies, as well as friendly countries, no longer regard trade opening as one of the means of aid, at least no longer the main means of aid, reducing a lot of losses for the country. But in the eyes of many people, Yan Jingyu is not a leader who focuses on economic construction, but a leader like Wang Yuanqing, who focuses on external expansion and improving the international influence of the republic. Of course, this is not to say that Wang Yuanqing does not have the ability to manage the economy, in fact, Wang Yuanqing's ability to develop the economy is definitely not under Ji Youguo, let alone worse than Gu Weimin, but compared with other achievements, Wang Yuanqing's economic achievements are not so prominent.
In general, Yan Jingyu will definitely not tolerate the provocations of the EU for the sake of economic problems.
Of course, Yan Jingyu is not unconcerned about the economic construction of the republic.
As early as Kouyue, that is, the first high-level meeting of the Central Committee after Yan Jingchuang took office, he made a report on the strategic exhibition related to the economy, which clearly mentioned that the Republic has the ability to maintain the country's long-term development without relying on other major economies, relying on the establishment of several market communities and free trade zones, and to ensure that when it enters the next period of high economic growth, there will be no shortage of overseas markets and resource markets.
It can be said that this report fully proves Yan Jingyu's economic talent.
According to Yan Jingyu's estimate, at the end of the fall era or the beginning of the decade, the republic must not consider economic issues first. Of course, this involves two situations, that is, whether the world war broke out or not.
If the world war had already broken out, or was about to break out, the main problem facing the Republic during this period was how to defeat the powerful United States and achieve the final victory in the war.
In the autumn of national survival, economic issues must be relegated. That is, the authorities of the republic will not have economic problems. If the world war does not explode, and it is unlikely to explode, through the efforts of the years or so, the construction of several market communities and free trade areas with the republic as the core, such as the "China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, China-South Asian Market Community." North-East Asian Market Community. Central African Free Trade Organization. and so on, that is, the main member states are either already or about to become Da countries. More importantly, the population of these countries will increase by more than two times on the basis of the previous years, and some will increase several times, and the republic will never lack overseas markets. Under these circumstances, the Republic really has no reason to worry about economic development. It is precisely because of this that there is really no reason for the authorities of the republic to have to make concessions to the EU on non-economic issues for the sake of the EU market?
In Yan Jingyu's view, it is not that the republic needs the EU more, but that the EU needs the republic more.
In any case, the republic is a unitary state, while the European Union is a confederation of international organizations of several countries. In this way, the republic can "six European countries with close ties, such as Greece, Romania, Serbia and Montenegro and the Lion's Horn of the integration process, and even block the European Union's reunification. The problem is that the EU is not capable of interfering in the internal affairs of the Republic, at least not so that the authorities of the Republic can make reservations about the EU and even tolerate some of the EU's excesses because of the EU's influence when formulating the strategic plan.
The same is true for Shili.
Within a few months after Yan Jingyu visited several European countries, the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Poland, Belgium, Austria, the Czech Republic and other European countries officially paid a return visit to the Republic, so that Yan Jingyu had to ask Premier Yan Shanglong to receive the leaders of these countries. Fortunately, most European countries have a "parliamentary prime ministership" system. That is, the actual leader of the country is the prime minister of the government, not the head of the country, so it is not too much to let the premier of the State Council receive them.
During their visits to the Republic, the leaders of these European countries invariably mentioned the traditional friendly relations between the Republic and the EU and the importance of bilateral trade exchanges, and expressed the hope that the Republic would maintain its original policy and strengthen cooperation with the EU in relevant areas. The implication is that the authorities of the Republic have gone too far on certain issues and have nothing to do with reducing the EU's diplomatic and trade position.
Obviously, such a visit is not much different from begging.
Although in the first half of the year, that is, in the second half of the fiscal year, the trade between the Republic and the EU has shown a recovery growth, and it is expected that in the fiscal year, the EU will surpass the African Union and become the third largest trading partner of the Republic, and the gap with the previous two will be very small, but Yan Jingyu is not trapped in changing the basic policy towards the EU, that is, as long as the EU is unwilling to make concessions on Turkish aid, the authorities of the Republic will not actively encourage trade with Europe, let alone export key technologies to the EU.
Just two months ago, at the last plenary meeting of the good fiscal year, Yan Jingyu personally vetoed the proposal to abolish the technology ban involving the European Union initiated by Ma Jinghe and many other deputies, extended the validity period of the "Technology Export Control Act" for another year, and increased the scope of control, including some dual-use technologies that could be exported after special approval into the scope of control. Because the United States has long not expected to obtain cutting-edge technology from the Republic, and other countries do not have the ability to digest the Republic's cutting-edge technology, the bill is mainly aimed at countries with close ties to the United States, especially economies like the European Union that have the ability to digest cutting-edge technology.
Yan Jingyu's move has had a great impact on the EU integration process. You must know that several European countries with close ties to the republic are also within the scope of restrictions, and these countries hope to speed up the economic development through the advanced technology provided by the republic, catching up with France, Germany and Italy. Among them, the most active is Greece. At the beginning of July, the Greek government said that if the EU could not achieve a successful outcome in the technical cooperation negotiations with the Republic at the end of the year, allowing the Republic to lift technology export restrictions, Greece would reconsider the national designation. The address of this site has been changed to: just a mouthful of milk... 8。 Please log in to the valve!
Although Greece is only a small country and has long been not the center of civilization in Europe, as one of several emerging economic powers in Europe, Greece's influence is not small.
More importantly, if Greece suddenly announces its withdrawal from the EU, as it did a few years ago, it is likely to have a domino effect, making Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia and Montenegro Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and many other EU member states that have not benefited much in the integration process make the same choice, resulting in the failure of decades of efforts by France, Germany, Italy and other traditional European and Zhejiang powers.
It is precisely because of this that some people believe that Yan Jingyu has issued an ultimatum to the EU.
In an editorial by Agence France-Presse at the end of June, when the Republican Yuan vetoed the proposal to repeal the Technology Export Control Act, Beijing's influence on EU integration had already passed through Washington, and the Republic had become the number one object that the EU must pay close attention to.
Regardless of this catty and comments, the EU is left with only one last option, which is the "China-EU Technical Cooperation Strategic Talks" to be held at the end of the year. Although this is only an informal negotiation at the ministerial level, and the forces ahead have not had much impact for many years, almost all Europeans showed up two months ago, and this ministerial meeting in Phallin a few months later will certainly affect the future of Europe and affect every European.
Against this backdrop, Yan Jingyu naturally does not think that the Republic should help the EU advance integration.
It is clear that in the past few years, most of the Republic's policies have been aimed at stifling the EU's integration process, or at least not actively helping the EU to promote integration.
It is precisely in this way that when Pei Chengyi mentioned the EU, Yan Jingyu would react like that.
As a national leader, Yan Jingyu knows very well that in international relations, there are no permanent friends and enemies, only eternal interests. Whether it is to attack the EU or to support it, it is not determined by the mood of the leaders, but by the national interests of the republic. If it is in the Republic's interest to help the EU move forward with the integration process, then the leaders should put down their shelves and act aggressively.
In other words, Pei Chengyi still has to convince Yan Jingyu that it is beneficial to the republic to help the EU achieve integration!