552 The Crisis of Capitalism IV Is There Still a Monthly Pass?
Zhang Gongquan took a deep breath, and a respectful smile appeared on his face: "The prime minister's lesson is that his subordinates really can't hide this bit of thinking from you, what should you do, just say that our Bank of China must only look forward to the prime minister." Although he said it nicely, he had other ideas in his heart.
How did Chang Ruiqing know that among the main promoters of the big bull market in China's stock market this time, there is Bank of China Group! As early as 1926, before the start of this wave of bull market, Zhang Gongquan, Chen Guangfu and others began to lay out and plan, taking advantage of the special position of Bank of China and Bank of China Securities in China's financial industry, and joined in the name of private equity investment before a large number of listed companies were publicly offered, thus grasping a large number of cheap chips.
Subsequently, the Bank of China and Bank of China Securities ordered a large number of small and medium-sized money banks that were attached to the Bank of China to promote stock trading from a few large and medium-sized cities to small and medium-sized towns, thus attracting a large number of money bank owners and local tyrants from the countryside to participate in stock speculation.
In addition, Zhang Gongquan, Chen Guangfu and others also have a huge advantage in manipulating the stock market, that is, they have the right to speak and the right to formulate rules in China's securities market! China's most influential financial newspapers and periodicals are secretly controlled by them, the Shanghai Stock Exchange is the holding company of the Bank of China, as for the president of the central bank of China, and the general manager of the Bank of China is taking turns to sit in the bank, and even the previous controlling party of the Bank of China, the iron-blooded comrades association known as China's largest consortium, and Zhang Gongquan's eldest brother Zhang Jiabao, who actually controls Chang Ruiqing, The wife Wang Ruonan is just a nominal chairman, not to mention that the Zhang family also has a federal vice premier, Zhang Junmao......
But. In the process of manipulating China's securities market by these bigwigs of the Jiangsu-Zhejiang chaebols, something happened that surprised them. It's that Chang Ruiqing doesn't know what's going on, and resolutely believes that there will be a worldwide economic depression. So the federal government and the Iron Comrades were repeatedly ordered to reduce their stock holdings. In just over a year, more than 10 billion Chinese dollars have been withdrawn from the stock market! If it weren't for this accident, the current 80 constituent stock indexes of the Shanghai Stock Exchange would have broken through the 500-point mark long ago. Moreover, after the reduction of public shares failed to suppress the stock market, Chang Ruiqing proposed for the first time to implement foreign exchange control in the five major free markets.
In this way, Zhang Gongquan and others knew that they could no longer fight this dictator, so they started in late November last year. BOC Securities began to reduce its holdings behind the federal government and the Iron Will. So far, it has cashed out more than 3 billion Chinese dollars from the market, making it the second largest winner after the federal government. The Jiangsu-Zhejiang consortium, the Nanyang consortium and the Beiyang consortium, which joined forces with the Bank of China, also made huge profits. Even the Japanese consortium that followed the trend made a lot of money.
The only thing that surprised him was that several European and American consortia were still holding their positions, and it seemed that they had just given them the hat of the culprit of the financial crisis, and the profiteers on both sides of the Pacific Ocean thought of going together this time.
Premier Chang Da has now forgotten the ancient adage of "no business, no treachery", and when he saw Zhang Gongquan's loyal look, his face eased. Wen Yan said: "I also know that it is impossible to save the market. But I'm the Federal Chancellor. You can't just settle the economic accounts, and it's an election year again! ”
Zhang Gongquan and Chen Guangfu glanced at each other, and at the same time they followed Chang Ruiqing's thoughts in their hearts.
Zhang Gongquan first thought of countermeasures, made a statement of righteous indignation, and said: "Prime Minister, this round of stock market crisis, in the final analysis, is that international capital is disrupting China's financial stability!" ”
Chen Guangfu also chimed in: "Now it seems that the prime minister's method of preparing to implement foreign exchange control in the five free cities is still wise, and these bad people who have made money and disrupted our country's financial affairs cannot be swept away lightly." ”
Chang Ruiqing nodded again and again, what is it called interlaced like a mountain? Our prime minister Chang Da is still okay with engaging in military, terrorist activities, and politics. However, those doorways in the modern financial industry are really incomprehensible. Not to mention that he is a student of history and military affairs. Even if the future generations of doctoral students in the Department of Finance can really see through the tricks of Wall Street?
Therefore, it is normal for Chang Ruiqing not to understand the doorways in the financial industry, but he still knows the truth that Wall Street is a villain. And he also knows that the backstage of Wall Street is very hard, and he can't really mess them up, otherwise they throw out a billion dollars to support the Soviet Union and Japan, and he won't be able to cry. Fortunately, his rich historical knowledge has given the best way to fight Wall Street, and the skin of these financial predators is very thick, similar to the skin of real crocodiles. Therefore, as long as their money is not confiscated, no criticism, condemnation, condemnation, even if they are greeted, the predators will never get angry.
It seems that in later generations, no matter which developed or underdeveloped country has economic problems, it will always be able to blame the streets of Wall, in short, they are not good, and the politicians, capitalists, and working people of those countries have no shortcomings at all......
"Songsun," Chang Ruiqing took a breath and called out the name of Bei Zuyi, who was also from the Bank of China, served as the general manager of the Bank of China and the general manager of the Bank of China Securities, and is now the president of the central bank. "After the Spring Festival, we will implement foreign exchange control in the five major free markets, and at the same time publish an article in China Finance in your name to expose the manipulation of China's stock market by international financial capital and make huge profits, and also explain clearly the dangers that may be caused by this kind of behavior, and call on the people to be vigilant and optimistic about their own pockets!"
"My subordinates understood." As the governor of the central bank and a top figure in China's financial regulators, how could he publish such a commentary on the rise and fall of the market? Even if the big bull market in China's stock market is really speculated by international capital, they have not violated the relevant laws and regulations of China's financial supervision, how can they be condemned in the newspapers like this? In this way, Shanghai, an international financial center that has been built with great difficulty, can be regarded as completely overturning.
Chang Ruiqing went on to say: "We are also ready to cut the exchange rate at any time, and once the Wall Street stock market crashes, we will adjust the value of the Chinese dollar to 6 to 1 against the dollar." ”
"What does the Wall Street stock market crash have to do with our adjustment of the exchange rate?" Hearing Chang Ruiqing's order, Pei Zuyi only felt inexplicable. So I asked.
"Because after the Wall Street stock market crashes, the global economy will fall into the Great Depression." Chang Ruiqing explained.
"Will there be a Great Depression?" Pei Zuyi couldn't help but ask again: "But why?" The U.S. economy isn't so fragile that it can't even withstand a stock market correction, right? ”
Yes, the U.S. economy is not that fragile. But the Great Depression in history still happened, and why is that? Seriously, Chang Ruiqing doesn't know much about it, I don't know if the cause of the Great Depression in the United States in the previous life can be applied to the present life? Even if it did, he didn't know much. After all, when the official history of the Celestial Empire involves such a strong ideological issue, there is always a lot of Marxist-Leninist truths that are copied from the top, who knows whether it is true or false?
"The U.S. economy must be in a big depression!"
Zhang Gongquan saw that Chang Ruiqing couldn't answer for a while. Hurriedly helping to break the siege, he thought and said, "According to my analysis...... The main causes of the Great Depression in the United States were overproduction and the debt crisis. As a result of the past few years, the whole world has been expanding its armaments. Preparing for the world revolution in the USSR, a huge demand for the construction of heavy industry and armaments industry arose. China, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, the Soviet Union, and Japan have all imported a large amount of industrial equipment and raw materials from the United States in the past few years for the construction of heavy industry and arsenals. And many heavy industry companies in the United States have also increased their investment. Many new factories were opened, ready to make a big profit after the start of the world revolution. However, since April last year, the international situation has suddenly eased, and Britain, regulations, Germany, Italy, the Soviet Union, and Japan have all slowed down the construction of heavy industry and armaments industry at the same time, resulting in a sharp decline in the trade surplus of the United States.
Moreover, in the past few years, the funds for the construction of heavy industry in various countries were borrowed from American banks, and if the scenario of a world war approached, naturally no one would consider the issue of repaying the loans. But now the threat of war has disappeared for the time being. The issue of loan repayment was immediately put on the agenda. News came from Germany that Berlin had stopped paying the repayments of the Dawes Plan and the reparations for the First World War. Germany, on the other hand, refused to pay the arrears and reparations. In addition, the British and American banks, which held a large number of German World War I reparation bonds, were exposed to a possible large number of bad debts, which could detonate the crisis of the over-indebtedness of the world's heavy industry.
In addition, the collapse in international agricultural prices is likely to lead to a downturn in domestic consumption and more bad bank debts in the United States. Since 1928, North America has had a continuous grain harvest, and the wheat harvest in Canada alone has increased by 20 percent, far exceeding the absorption capacity of the international market. But in this situation, the Soviet Union suddenly broke out into a great famine and began to stop grain exports and turn to imports. As a result, North American farmers misjudged the shape and increased the sown area by another 20% in 1929, resulting in another bumper grain harvest in the United States and Canada this year. However, the grain shortage in the Soviet Union eased after the autumn harvest in 1929, and no more grain was imported, and Poland had a bumper harvest last year and began to sell grain to the international market, which caused international grain prices to plummet and caused heavy losses to American farmers. Thus became another important reason for the occurrence of the Great Depression. ”
Whether this explanation makes sense or not, it can round Chang Ruiqing's "Great Depression Hypothesis" anyway. However, before Zhang Gongquan had time to breathe, Chen Guangfu next to him raised a new question: "Listening to what Gongquan said, it really makes some sense. If the Great Depression really happened in the United States, I am afraid it would not be a financial problem, right? But the entire Chinese economy will be greatly impacted! ”
"The impact is certain," Chang Ruiqing said with a stern expression: "At present, China's main export commodities are raw silk, tea, teak (Kingdom of Siam), tung oil, pig bristles, tungsten alloy, natural rubber (Kingdom of Siam), iron ore, coal, soybeans and other raw materials, the annual export amount is about more than 600 million US dollars, of which except for a small part of the barter trade between Britain, Germany, France and Italy, most of which are sold to the United States. Once the U.S. economy is in recession, our foreign trade exports may be reduced by more than two-thirds! ”
Two-thirds of $600 million is about $400 million, which is 1.6 billion when converted into RMB! Hearing this number, the faces of the bankers in the conference room were difficult to look at. In the past few years, although China has exported about $600 million a year, it has been in deficit for many years, almost $300 million to $400 million a year because of the amount of machinery and equipment it imports. However, there are huge direct and indirect investment inflows, so a deficit of this magnitude is not a problem. But if China's exports are reduced by $400 million all at once. The annual trade deficit would be as high as $700 million to $800 million! And in the face of the global recession, there will certainly be no investment flowing into China. How many years can the central bank support it with less than $4 billion in foreign exchange reserves? If a large amount of capital is withdrawn from China again, the consequences will be unimaginable!
Seeing everyone's ugly complexion. Chang Ruiqing sighed softly and said with a wry smile: "You know the severity of the matter now, right?" On the one hand, the domestic economy has been hit by the collapse of the stock market, and on the other hand, foreign trade has been hit by the world economic depression. Moreover, these two things are not the most troublesome for me, without the scourge of the Soviet Union, we would have lived a hard life for a few years. ”
"Wasn't there a food shortage in the Soviet Union?" Zhang Gongquan asked with some puzzlement. "Does the Prime Minister think that the food shortage in the Soviet Union is fake?"
Chang Ruiqing shook his head: "The food shortage is true, but do you know how the food shortage in the Soviet Union came about?" ”
"It is the export of grain arbitrage used to import machinery and engage in heavy industry." Zhang Gongquan replied.
"Why did Trotsky do this? With the current great strength of the Soviet Red Army. Will the USSR be wiped out if there is less development of heavy industry? Chang Ruiqing glanced at the bankers in the conference room and accentuated his tone: "Trotsky has only one purpose in developing heavy industry at any cost, and that is to launch a world revolution. Unleash a world war! As a neighbor of the Soviet Union, and sandwiched between the Soviet Union and Japan, China is likely to be the first target of the Soviet Union's attack. Therefore, in the next few years, we must not relax the construction of heavy industry. Be sure to base yourself on fighting a world war! ”
The bankers in the room gasped. If it is really said by Chang Ruiqing, China will not only face an economic crisis and a depression in foreign demand in the future, but also expand its armaments and prepare for a war with the Soviet Union! I really wonder how bad the federal finances will be?
Chang Ruiqing frowned, and a happy smile appeared on his face: "Fortunately, we have reduced a large number of official shares in this wave of stock bull market, and now without counting the money from the Ministry of Social Security, the federal government has seven billion on its books, which is equivalent to more than one and a half years of fiscal revenue." With this money in hand, the next few years will not be too sad. "Speaking of which. Chang Ruiqing stood up and waved his hand at everyone. smiled: "Okay, that's all for today's talk." All of you are senior executives of the Bank of China or from the Bank of China, and most of you are still directors of the Iron and Blood Comrades Association, and to me you are your own people. In this country, I have a share of Chang Ruiqing and a share of yours, and in the next few years, I hope that the Bank of China can be worthy of the word China! ”
Hearing this, a group of profiteer bankers hurriedly said: "Please rest assured, Prime Minister, we will serve the country wholeheartedly!" ”
After sending away these bankers from the Bank of China, Chang Ruiqing felt a little more confident in his heart. Although he doesn't know much about finance, he is still very good at reading words and feelings. Just now, he didn't find any panicked look on the faces of these Chinese bankers, he saw a confident expression.
This shows that the Bank of China will definitely not collapse in a possible financial crisis in the future. Considering the special status of the Bank of China, as long as this big bank does not fail, China's financial plate can be stabilized. If the financial plate can be stabilized, China's economy will not be much worse. Moreover, the government still has as much as 7 billion flying windfalls, the Ministry of Social Security has also earned more than 100 billion, and the Iron and Blood Comrades Association has 2 billion. The central bank still has more than $3 billion in foreign exchange reserves, and at least $2 billion in Shanghai's major banks...... Even if some of them are siphoned off by foreign capital, there will always be three billion dollars left. With so much ammunition in hand, there really is nothing to fear in the future Great Depression, and maybe you can take advantage of the Great Depression in the United States to find some bargains!
Thinking of this, Chang Ruiqing actually had some thoughts of looking forward to the coming of the Great Depression.
It is not only Chang Ruiqing who has this idea, but also Comrade Trotsky, the old opponent of the Chinese people, who has also stretched his neck and waited for the crisis of the capitalist world to come. And whether it is the head of the American monopoly consortium on the other side of the ocean, or Chang Ruiqing, who is looking forward to the early arrival of the Great Depression, I am afraid that they have overlooked the fact that Trotsky, as the great leader of the world revolution, is also a Jew!
And he is the son of a Jewish profiteer, and his brain with a super high IQ also has an ancestral business acumen! Therefore, Trotsky will never let go of this obvious opportunity to make a lot of money. However, Trotsky's secret account in Switzerland bets not on the US or Chinese stock markets, but on wheat futures.
Long before news of the Holodomor in the Soviet Union came to light, the Prophet secretly ordered millions of dollars to be invested in the futures markets of Paris, London and Chicago to open long positions in wheat. In the months that followed, wheat prices, which had been very depressed, soared, and the Prophet's millions of dollars turned into tens of millions. Just before the autumn harvest of 1929, the Prophet ordered a wide opening of wheat positions in the international market, buying $20 million worth of short wheat contracts for March 1930. If the crisis of the capitalist world had come before that, Trotsky's investment would have earned the Soviet Union at least $200 million in valuable foreign exchange! (To be continued.) For mobile phone users, please go to read. )