Overcapacity? Is there a possibility of an economic crisis? What a joke!

Yan Fu suddenly had a strange feeling that he had been struck by lightning, because he really couldn't imagine that these two situations would be connected with China, which was still a desolate industry a few years ago. ∈ ↗ Top Novel, www.

He shook his head in disbelief: "That's impossible." Now that China's industry has just been built, many machinery production has to rely on your channel 'import', how to say that there is a surplus? I don't believe it. ”

Yan Fu has very good reason to be so suspicious. He was the first to accept Yang Hao's theory of the "big industrial party", and he came to his own conclusions through rigorous calculations and logical reasoning, and Yang Hao's statement can be applied to almost every great power.

According to the plan that Yang Hao got from the professional team in this world, if a country wants to become a strong country, it must first be an industrial power. This is not just the technological leadership of a few fields, but the all-round output of basic industries must reach a very high per capita level.

For example, steel, according to the number jù, to become an industrial power at the end of the 19th century, the per capita consumption of steel must reach the standard of 100 kilograms. This means that China, with a population of more than 400 million people at the end of the Qing Dynasty, must have an annual output of at least 40 million tons to qualify.

This is not the number of "brick families" who stayed in air-conditioned rooms and patted their heads to guess, but can be seen by comparing the two most representative powers in the world today - Britain and Germany.

In 1891, Britain had a population of 38 million and produced 3.6 million tons of steel. With a population of 49 million and steel production of only 2.4 million tonnes, Germany is clearly on the strong side of the United Kingdom. But by 1896. Germany has surpassed the UK in steel production. In 1914, it exploded to 14 million tons. At this time, the population of the country also skyrocketed to 65 million! Steel production per capita is more than 200 kilograms, which is twice as much as in the UK (6.5 million tonnes)!

So the result is clear to everyone, the Germans provoked the First World War and beat a bunch of European brothers to the brink of collapse.

So what about coal production, the second indicator of an industrial powerhouse? In 1871, Britain held the absolute leading position in the world, reaching a monstrous figure of 112 million tons, while Germany had only 34 million tons. But by 1890, the Germans were in a hurry to catch up to about 60 million tons! By 1913. Coal production in Britain and Germany is almost flat.

It should be noted that Britain already owned 30 million square kilometers of land in the world, while the Germans had only completed unification for more than 20 years. In terms of real per capita ownership, the Germans undoubtedly have the upper hand.

The proportion of coal and steel production and population share is almost equal to the combined strength of the 19th-century powers. This indicator is almost indisputable, and it is something that contemporary China must catch up with.

According to this ratio, the Qing Dynasty three years ago will be counted, and when the Hanyang Iron Works was not completed, there was no industrial output at all. After Yang Hao's family arrived, there was no restriction on dumping second-hand steel mills here. That's a direct projection and relocation of the entire steel mill here! Retired engineers from the 21st century in the world helped to build and debug the entire production system! Under the guise of supporting industrial construction for the African people, it secretly turned around, and the speed was a mess.

In less than three years. He has built up a production capacity base of 6 million tons.

He didn't know what Yan Fu was too detailed, but he knew that compared with Yang Hao's revolutionary program, the current steel output of only one million tons a year should be a drop in the bucket compared to the large land and more than 100 million people who have completed land reform, how can there be overcapacity?

He couldn't figure it out.

Yang Hao had no choice but to give him a finger to explain: "The main reason for this is that the performance and quality of the steel we currently produce are not up to standard, and the fields of machinery, shipbuilding, chemical industry, railways, boilers, and engines, which consume the most, cannot be counted on for the time being, and must rely on imports." The performance that has been produced is inferior and unstable, and can only be used in small hardware, agricultural tools and building materials with low technical requirements. ”

Yan Fu was dumbfounded, and it was difficult to accept it for a while. So Yang Hao directly dragged him to Tianjin Polytechnic University, and invited Hua Yufang, the leading expert in China today, vice minister of industry and president of the university, to give a lecture to His Excellency the party leader.

Mr. Hua, who is 65 years old this year, is in good spirits, his gray hair is stained with a lot of chalk ash, and he does not seem to be tired after completing a series of classes.

The old gentleman was quite surprised by the joint visit of the two giants Yang Hao and Yan Fu, and asked him clearly after serving tea and greetings, and couldn't help sighing ashamedly: "Speaking of this matter, we should blame the incompetence of old people such as me, Mr. Demeng has purchased the world's first-class conditions and equipment, and the teaching materials should be prepared, but it is still difficult to take on the big responsibility, I am really ashamed, ashamed!" ”

The old gentleman opened his mouth and took the responsibility on himself, and Yang Hao hurriedly helped to explain: "The old principal can't be humble, it is not easy for you and everyone to run the equipment." Industrial production is not an overnight achievement, and it is a great progress to be able to officially operate in five years. ”

Hua Yufang just shook her head, feeling guilty in her heart.

Judging from his own heart, Yang Hao couldn't have done better. First of all, there is a complete set of steel complex production system assembled for them to run, the whole production process of each kind of equipment operation, there are films and films turned over and over for them to learn, the operation manual is meticulous and thorough, as long as you are not an illiterate fool, you can always follow a little bit of hands.

This is not the end, these old gentlemen and teachers with high enough status also have the opportunity to go to the secret real yàn room to pass the guò touch screen terminal to carry out the simulation operation of the whole set of equipment to learn, and there are also real yàn rooms after the 80s of the 20th century to do research casually. It can be said that in addition to not being able to achieve the direct empowerment in science fiction films, in terms of learning conditions, they have broken through the sky.

Under such thoughtful conditions, Hua Yufang, Xu Jianyin and other industrial pioneers led a large group of valuable talents who were self-taught or returned from abroad, groping and learning to build iron and steel plants in Tianjin, Hebei, Xuzhou and other places, and trained a group of technicians and apprentices as quickly as possible, and tried to start production from the smallest equipment.

It has been three years now, and the two major steel plants in Rizhao Qingdao have really been put into continuous operation. After all, it's a full-fledged factory that has been projected directly from the world. It has the best group of technology and workers in the country. in order to ensure its safe and normal operation.

Other steel mills. Nowadays, they are still using the most slag steelmaking furnace ironmaking furnace pellet crushing a series of equipment training and exploration, Yang Hao is playing a spectrum to let the equipment with a production capacity of hundreds of thousands of tons be scrapped as a real product. As long as qualified industrial workers can be trained, every loss is worth it.

Don't think it's easy, in the fifties of this world, when China built the first batch of basic industries, it took many years to get started under the guidance of Maozi experts. The real steel industry has completed a breakthrough. That was in the eighties (in 1980, China produced 37.12 million tons of steel).

At present, Yang Hao has provided a convenient condition, and the major steel mills are still mainly producing crude steel with converter steelmaking technology.

The seemingly small annual output of one million tons is enough to be terrifying, at least Hua Yufang and others are dumbfounded and can't describe it. Because they have traveled all over the world, they can't find a second one with such technical equipment.

Yan Fu felt that the old gentleman was too modest, and asked puzzledly: "Even if the steel produced is used for crude products, how can it be consumed in the face of a market of 200 million people?" ”

Hua Yufang sighed: "We underestimated the speed of industrial production, but overestimated the determination of the general public to spend money!" It's not that no one wants to buy it. It's that the vast majority of people can't afford it! ”

Yan Fu was cheerful, and he felt ashamed again. I really can't find anyone else's head in this matter. In the end, it is still the government officials who are not doing their job properly!

In fact, there is another fatal problem here, the Chinese like to save money too much, reluctant to spend, because since ancient times, thousands of years, the common people are afraid of poverty.

At the end of the 19th century in China, landlords and old fortunes liked to put silver in jars and bury them in the ground, and the old men in Shanxi could even store hundreds of millions of taels of silver in the cellars! Even if the money bank ticket number business has risen in recent decades, the amount of silver circulation is still very low.

Since the Ming and Qing dynasties, the landlords and gentry did not care much about industry, and most of them bought the land owners after making money through various means, and then the officials and businessmen colluded to find a way to occupy the fields of the yeoman farmers and turn them into tenants to cultivate for themselves. In good years, they vigorously assessed taxes and fees to force the peasants to go bankrupt, and in disaster years, they took the opportunity to raise grain prices and lower land prices, and wantonly annexed land to become big landlords.

This vicious circle lasted until the looting could no longer be searched, and the peasants who could not survive rebelled and revolted.

The landlords and gentry who had money were reluctant to spend, and many of them used the white flour and meat they picked every now and then, and in addition, they were too clean and ruthless in the peasants, and the agricultural and sideline products and livestock breeding were extremely underdeveloped, so that even those who had money could not buy many good things.

There is really money to spend, nothing more than raising a concubine to make a big house, collecting jewelry, antiques, and cultural toys, which are considered high-end, and most of the low-end would rather bury the money in the ground.

Naturally, the common people have no money to consume, and the sickle, hoe, and iron pot are considered the bulk of steel consumption. And basically, these few things can be used for decades without accident, until the sickle is sharpened to a narrow iron piece, the hoe is almost invisible, and there are many holes in the iron pot, and something must be plugged when cooking so that it will not leak .......

In such a situation, where does steel consumption come from?

After understanding the current situation, Yang Hao formulated a linkage policy to promote consumption. At the same time as the land reform liberated the population, all types of work were included in the post wage management system, and even if the migrant workers helped build roads and dig ditches, they had to be paid. The vast number of newly established cooperatives in the rural areas should also adopt the method of determining wages by centimeters, and forcibly turn agricultural production into an industrialized system of division of labor and cooperation.

In this way, the "good landlords" who have completely cut off the roots of the landlords and can get away with the land reform will face the bleak situation that they will not be able to hire people to farm for them without spending money, and if they do not join the cooperatives, they will not be able to obtain chemical fertilizers, pesticides, improved seeds, and irrigation, and the bleak situation that 70 or 80 catties of grain in the production area will not be enough for wages.

A large number of peasants and small townspeople became wage workers with the forced industrialization push. But the people of this era were too poor, and every penny they received was first used to solve basic conditions such as food, clothing, and housing. Even if each factory organization has prepared at least two sets of overalls for them, including pants, socks, and gloves, students have no tuition fees for school, school uniforms are issued, and medical treatment and medicine are all conscience prices, but after all, there is no way to help them even solve the house.

Even in Shandong, where land reform was first implemented, many factories, mines, ports, and wharves were built. The vast majority of people are still far from having money to spare. The banknotes that were strongly promoted were also deposited in the banks. There is no time before the formation of a market system.

Yang Hao didn't find a way to promote consumption. Under the guise of changing customs. With the help of the propaganda team in the countryside, the "three turns and one ring" will be used as a model for the wedding bride price. As a result, families are working towards buying a bicycle, a steel mechanical watch, a sewing machine, and a radio.

But no matter how much these four things are discounted, they have to cost at least 200 yuan to buy them. With an average monthly basic income of five yuan (equivalent to the ocean) in this year, both workers have to save for two or three years!

And this is already the bottom line of Yang Hao's implementation of industrial products, no matter how low it is, it can't be studied.

Nowadays, the vast majority of industrial steel is still resold from Yang Hao's time and space, which has invisibly further squeezed the market of the second plane. Of course, if Hua Yufang can ensure the production quality of all steel mills. can be used to make boilers, steam engines, rails, ship tractors, and he doesn't need to be a second-hand dealer, which can really solve the production capacity problem.

But if you want to reach that journey, you don't dare to say okay for another three or five years.

(In China, the world's large-scale consumption only began in the 80s.) It took China 30 years to build the foundation for industrialization, and it was a long process. ）

The problem is clear, and Yan Fu can also understand Yang Hao's intention to keep waging war.

War is undoubtedly the most direct and effective means of consuming industrial productivity. In order for the warship to start, it needs heavy oil, diesel lubricating oil, and various oils, so the million-ton oil refinery established by Yang Hao in Africa and projected to Qingdao has been settled. Bullets and shells are needed to fight a war, so the major arsenals are full of capacity. Some products of steel plants, petrochemical plants and chemical plants attached to steel plants, coal chemical plants, fertilizer plants, etc. can also be shipped in sufficient quantities. In addition to chemical fertilizers, the rest are strictly zhòng excessive. It just turns into all kinds of gunpowder and fireworks.

The army wanted to eat canned food, so the meat factory of the farm had a job to do.

and so on to mobilize in all directions. Yang Hao did not adopt the strategy of wartime rationing, but controlled the normal production load efficiency of all factories, and let the workers get wages and bonuses to produce as usual, so as to ensure that they had the spare power to consume, and forcibly promoted the maintenance and expansion of industrial production capacity through consumption, and forced all factories to improve the quality with military standards - if there is a quality problem with military products, it will be killed.

The biggest drawback of this is that there is no place to reimburse the large amount of military spending generated out of thin air. The Japanese refused to pay compensation even if they were killed, and they couldn't find much oil and water even if they won the war, so it was destined to be a money-losing deal. Therefore, Yang Haocai repeatedly emphasized that the scale of the war should be controlled, and once it is bigger, it will really become a burden.

How to grasp the scale in the middle is really a headache. Before, Yang Hao sold industrial equipment and ship equipment to loot foreign devils, but the money earned was spent on a few months of war, seeing that the battle became bigger and more intense, which means that military spending has risen sharply, and financial expenditure alone will definitely not work, and you must find a next home to pay for it.

Turning around, Yan Fu, who understood what the problem was, was anxious, glared and asked Yang Hao and Hua Yufang: "Is there no better way than war?" Fighting a war is too laborious and costly, and now the military government is fully engaged in the revolutionary advancement of the new area, which is already extremely difficult! ”

As mentioned above, Yang Hao's version of land reform is an all-round promotion, and the initial investment is too large. In general, it is necessary to build railways and highways, dredge rivers and waterways, build dams to build farmland water conservancy systems, establish new industrial areas in key cities, and build new cities around them to expand the size of urban population; Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery production should be redefined, and industrialized operations based on division of labor and cooperation should be carried out.

It costs a lot of money. Among them, the necessary reinforced concrete rail locomotives to blow up rocks of gunpowder is a large quantity, engineering and agricultural machinery is another large quantity, and agricultural irrigation and farming, harvesting, threshing and crushing machinery alone is calculated in hundreds of thousands of sets.

In addition to this, improved seeds, pesticides, fertilizers. The latter two are a direct boost to the chemical industry, while the upfront investment must wait for the output of food crops before it can be recovered. The problem was that in China at the end of the 19th century, the yield of traditional agriculture was frighteningly low! Taking Shandong as an example, it has one of the highest yields per mu in the country, which is only 47 kg of wheat/70 kg of corn. What's enough?

After comprehensively improving farmland and water conservancy, implementing the operation mode of division of labor and cooperation, using the improved varieties imported (or robbed) from the United States and Japan, and vigorously investing in chemical fertilizers and pesticides, Shandong's grain yield has increased several times. The average yield per mu of wheat reached about 170 kilograms, and the yield of corn per mu reached about 250 kilograms, which was basically close to the level of the 80s in the world.

(Before the eighties, under the condition of the lack of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, the role of improved varieties was not prominent.) At the end of the Qing Dynasty, China had actually introduced improved varieties. In 1904, the yield of corn and wheat reached 85-115 kilograms per mu, which was one and a half to two times the average harvest at that time. The highest Zichuan Lijiazhuang Shujingtang Bijia, wheat yield per mu is as high as 150 kilograms. ）

The people take food as the sky, and in any country, only when the people are fed can the government be considered qualified. And only through the construction of industry and the increase in the average yield of major crops can it be said that it has entered the realm of an industrial country. Compared with the per capita share of steel and coal, the average yield per mu of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, wheat, rice and corn is also indispensable.

In the case of China, it is necessary to achieve a yield of 200 kilograms per mu in order to generate an agricultural surplus, which in turn promotes agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and aquaculture, plus marine fishing to reduce pure food consumption. With the intake of food, fish, meat and eggs, the people's physique will be strong, the ability to resist diseases will be improved, and the life expectancy will be prolonged. With surplus rations, we can exchange money for buying things, which in turn promotes the consumption of industrial products and comprehensively promotes the improvement of industrial production capacity.

This is a large interlocking system, the core of which is to solve the problem of agriculture-related industrialization, plus military-related industrialization, farming and warfare to build a country, which is also said.

The industrial countries of the world have all adopted the sacrifice of agriculture to concentrate their efforts on industrialization, and China is by no means the only one that is engaged in scissors. Yang Hao played a better game at the end of the 19th century, he could use the tenfold profit difference between the two time and space to promote, and the peasants in this year really had nothing to sacrifice. If you want to say that the sacrifices are those local tyrants and inferior gentry.

Now, in the face of Yan Fu's problem, he also has another solution.

"We will soon be able to find a family to pay the money, in this world, the wronged people are not just a group of foreign devils from the great powers."

Yang Hao's goal is the Philippines. (To be continued......) R527