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One day in March 1957, in the newly formed Clark MacDonald Rockefeller Company, the company's three founders were meeting.

The topic of the meeting was actually quite simple, at least, at the beginning of the meeting, both Clark and Rockefeller thought so. At this meeting, Clark used his previous experience to propose that in addition to grain spot trading, they could also go to the grain futures market in Chicago to buy some grain futures.

U.S. wheat shipped overseas was largely dependent on water transportation from the Great Lakes basin, and Chicago, on the shores of Lake Michigan, was the most important grain distribution center at the time. Here, there is the world's first futures market, the Chicago Grain Futures Market.

Generally speaking, the price of futures will always be cheaper than the price of spot, which makes it more profitable to buy grain from the futures market. Of course, farmers can also ensure that their income is relatively stable through the futures market, so that they will not lose money because they plant the wrong crops, and they can also get money in advance, which is also a good choice.

In the opinion of Rockefeller and Clark, it is a very cost-effective way to use a part of the funds to buy futures grain, and it should be very smooth to get through. However, as soon as this plan was proposed, it was opposed by Scrooge.

"I don't approve of buying grain futures like this." Scrooge said to Rockefeller and Clark.

Rockefeller didn't speak, and Scrooge knew that he was waiting for his reason. Of course, Scrooge couldn't tell him the truth, he couldn't just say to Rockefeller, I came from the afterlife, I knew that next year there would be the world's first economic crisis that swept the world, and this economic crisis began with the collapse of the grain market, right? However, in his previous life, Scrooge had always heard the saying that "crisis, crisis, is both a danger and an opportunity". In the United States in later generations, the foundations of the most influential big conglomerates were basically laid in several crises. Scrooge had already figured it out, and the impending crisis would also provide him with an opportunity. First of all, the crisis will start from the grain market, because the grain planting area in the United States has expanded too rapidly, coupled with the bumper harvest brought about by the wind and rain, and the Russian grain has experienced an unprecedented bumper harvest, which has led to a panic drop in grain prices in the international market. Scrooge remembers that this year, the price of grain fell to less than a quarter of the expected price, and many merchants went bankrupt at once. However, for those who knew about it, this is an opportunity to make a lot of money by shorting it. Scrooge had been eyeing this opportunity for a long time.

"John, do you know how much more wheat is cultivated near Cleveland this year than last year?" Since he had been eyeing this opportunity for a long time, Scrooge was certainly ready to convince his partner.

"I don't know the exact number," Mr. Rockefeller said, "but my former company was also engaged in grain trading, so I also know a little bit about the general situation, and due to the strong grain prices in recent years, the cultivated area has expanded a lot this year, and I guess it is a quarter more than last year." ”

"There are so many more in Cleveland alone, and I'm afraid the situation is similar in the whole of the United States." "What's even more terrifying is Europe," Scrooge said...... John, last year in the international market, um, I'm talking about the London market, how much was the price of wheat? How much does cotton and wool cost? Here's what you should know. ”

"I know." Rockefeller nodded. He had been in charge of the accounts for a long time, and he knew all these things.

"So John, can you calculate that if the price remains the same, it will be more profitable for Europeans to grow wheat or cotton or sheep?"

This is not a question that can be answered in one bite. Rockefeller quickly pulled out his notebook and pencil and began to calculate. After a while, he replied: "If the land situation in Europe were similar to that of the United States, then wheat would be more profitable than cotton and sheep in at least a more fertile part of the land...... In fact, this is true not only in Europe, but also in India...... You mean, there could be a drop in the price of food? ”

"Yes, but I'm not sure yet." "So, John, let's first investigate the wheat planting in the United States...... Mr. Clark, we also need to understand the specifics of wheat cultivation in Europe. You are an Englishman, and you should have some corresponding channels in Europe, so you will have to ask you to know about the state of wheat cultivation in Europe, well, please pay special attention to the cultivation of wheat in France and Russia. Scrooge said to Clark again.

"Well, I'll leave that to me." Clark replied as he stared at Scrooge in amazement. When Rockefeller brought Scrooge in, Clark didn't take Scrooge too seriously—a teenager, even if he was really a genius, how strong could he be? Clark even thought that Rockefeller just couldn't come up with enough money, and this little guy who looked like his little brother happened to be rich, rich and easy to control, so he was pulled in by Rockefeller as a sheep. Now it seems that if those words just now were really come up with by this little guy himself, then he is really a genius. Although he doesn't have a stake in the company as much as his own, he has raised another $5oo in the past two months, which makes him still the largest shareholder in the company. But is there such a guy, can he really hold the control of the company firmly in his hands as he expects?

"That's probably what Rockefeller taught him." Clark thought so, and he felt that this was the really acceptable explanation.

"Because of this risk, we blindly invest money in the purchase of grain, and if we don't do it well, we will lose all our money. Therefore, we must first conduct research and make a decision. I want to create a culture in our company that no investigation, no voice! Without blushing, Scrooge took the famous words of a certain great man for himself.

"Well, that's a good point! Now there is a kind of blind optimism in the grain market, and many guys do business not by careful analysis of the market, but by following the crowd with their heads. The more this happens, the more likely the market is to go wrong. I mention yì, let's assign the work. Rockefeller took out a pen and paper and recorded what Scrooge said, "Without investigation, there is no right to speak," and said, "Scrooge and I went to Chicago to find out about the situation there, and Clark should have acquaintances in Europe, so try to contact them and learn about the situation in Europe, and without further ado, we had better go out immediately." Once it turns out that things are the same as we deduced, we make a big deal. What do you think? ”

"What does it mean to be big?" Clark asked.

"That is to say, we use the method of shorting, first borrow from others in the futures market to sell a batch of grain, and wait until the price of grain collapses, and then buy grain to return it. If the operation is done well, this business can make us at least 50% more profit. Rockefeller's eyes sparkled.

"However, the risk is not small." Clark said.

"Wealth is in danger! There are highly profitable businesses in the world, either with high thresholds or high risks. Scrooge said.

Clark glanced at Scrooge in surprise again, "Even if the previous statement was taught by Rockefeller, but this sentence just now came out of context, and it shouldn't be possible for anyone to teach it first." This is really a genius, but I don't know if he has the luck of a genius. ”

"As long as we are well prepared and investigate clearly, there will be no problem." Rockefeller said.

"Okay, let's do it for now. I have some friends in the UK and I'll be writing to them right away. However, it will take some time - the letters across the ocean are just too slow, and it will take time for my friends to gather this information. Your investigation will take time, and I think we'll know the general situation by about May. ”

……

Unlike the Chicago that Scrooge knew in his previous life, Chicago at this time was far from being the third largest city in the United States with a population of several million in later generations, and now, it has a population of only more than 200,000, which is at most a county town by the standards of later Chinese people.

The Chicago that appears before the eyes of Scrooge and Rockefeller is really a bit similar to the small county towns in China in the future, with narrow streets, houses close to each other, construction sites and fire hazards of new houses everywhere, unplanned municipal construction, and chaotic urban layout. Scrooge knew that it would not be until the Great Fire of 187o that Chicago had a more holistic layout.

Along the shores of Lake Michigan, there are a number of piers where a variety of boats are moored. A lot of the grain destined for Europe comes from here. There is a large road that leads from the warehouse area to the docklands, and at almost any time you can see horse-drawn wagons laden with grain slowly walking along the road. Scrooge's destination, the Chicago Grain Futures Market, was on one side of the road.

Scrooge and Rockefeller came to Chicago by train, and the 19th century train was slower, and although it wasn't too far from Cleveland to Chicago, the train still ran all day. So by the time Scrooge and the others arrived, it was already afternoon.

"Now that the market is closed, let's stay here and go back tomorrow. I know of a hostel that is cheap, well, in average condition, but fairly clean. Rockefeller said to Scrooge.

Scrooge knew that Rockefeller was not only a businessman, but in terms of life, well, he was basically a turtle. In later generations, there is such a legend about Rockefeller. It is said that after Rockefeller became a rich man, every time he went on a business trip, he always had to stay in the cheapest hotel. So someone asked: Why do your sons live in the most luxurious suites every time, while you only live in the cheapest? Rockefeller replied: That's because their dad is richer than my dad.

So what Rockefeller said about the conditions is average, then it is estimated that it is really average. "Well, when I get rich in the future, I must not live like Rockefeller, a turtle, well, how can I be like Morgan, build a luxury yacht, and if it's okay, I will call a bunch of guys from the millionaires' club to the Atlantic Ocean to have a 'sea and sky feast' or something. That's the life of a Monopoly. Otherwise, what do you do to make money? Scrooge thought. However, if he were to be allowed to stay in a comfortable, expensive hotel, Scrooge would probably be reluctant to do so, because every penny now had to be used in a place that would bring in more money.