Chapter 532, Collateral (3)
Listening to Morgan's words, Takahashi smiled and said, "Of course I understand your concerns. But you can also understand that if a bullet can kill a yellow person, then they can also kill a white person. It is not the color of the skin that determines the outcome of a war. No matter what color of skin, it can't stop bullets. Moreover, Mr. MacDonald knew for sure that in all kinds of work, the Japanese workers were no worse than the other Caucasian workers. ”
Although he was very dissatisfied with the unfair racial discrimination in this era, Takahashi would not really argue with the Americans on this issue, after all, he was here to borrow money, not to quarrel. In fact, he also understands that the Yankees came up with this excuse just to raise the price.
"Mr. Takahashi, the fundamental reason why we are willing to use Japanese workers is not because they are capable, but because it is cheaper to use them." "If they had demanded the same conditions as the white workers, we wouldn't have used the Japanese workers." Now it's the same, if your country insists on being treated like a white country, then the demand is probably too high. And, Mr. Takahashi, you should also know that there is not much time left for your country. The Trans-Siberian Railway is being extended day by day, and every night the war is going on day by day, and the balance of victory in the war is tilted a little in favor of the Russians. Of course, this will also make our investment risk a little higher, and we will need a higher interest rate for this. It's like an eight. In the ninety-fourth year, you fought with the Qing Kingdom. In the beginning, the Qing could borrow money from us or from England at an interest rate of about four percent. It's a pity that they feel that the interest rate is too high. Later, when the war situation was unfavorable, even with an interest rate of six to seven percent, I would not be able to borrow enough money. And the collateral conditions required to borrow this money have become more stringent. So, for Japan's sake, I don't think it's a good idea to want to get a better loan from the beginning. ”
"So what do you think should be done?" Takahashi asked. But Greystone only smiled and did not continue to speak.
"Your government should be able to determine how much the Russians can throw in the Far East, and how much money you have left to defeat him. You may not be able to have a specific number, but there should still be an approximate number. Morgan Jr. said, "Can you tell me about how much loan do you need?" ”
Takahashi thought for a moment, this question is not easy to answer, because there are too many secrets involved. A lot of secret information is obtained, in fact, you don't need the thrilling way of the 007 series or "Mission Impossible". Rather, it can be obtained through the analysis of some public activities. For example, now, if you know the amount of loans that the Japanese need, and extrapolate to the past, there are many things that you didn't know before, such as Japan's financial and material preparation processes. And all these things are known to them, although Takahashi is not worried that they will sue the Russians, but letting them know such a base will also have a lot of adverse effects on the negotiations.
But it's not good not to tell people, so how can you borrow money? Takahashi thought for a moment and replied, "We've sold some bonds in Europe as well, so now we're probably only going to need to sell 60 million yen of bonds." ”
In fact, Takahashi sold less than 20 million bonds in Europe, a far cry from the 140 million yen that the government was expecting. Even if you add 60 million, it's still a lot worse. However, as long as these American bigwigs are willing to buy these government bonds, others will have confidence in the war bonds issued by Japan, and then it will naturally be easier to sell the rest of the bonds.
"Sixty million?" Grastone smiled coldly, "If you really think you only need sixty million yen, we don't have to talk about it anymore." We are not ignorant of the size of your economy, and to be honest, we have put a lot of thought into your country's economic intelligence. As you know, we can't get too many real secrets, but we know the general economic situation of your country. There will be no more than 100 million dollars in your country's treasury to support the war, and we are not out of the way to find out how many national bonds you have sold in Europe. Even if we believe that your country's army is slightly stronger than the Russian army's combat effectiveness, if your country does not borrow 200 to 300 million yen in this war, it will definitely not be enough. And the figure you are talking about now, I can only understand that your country is overestimating its own power and underestimating the Russians. This time your opponent is not the Qing State, but a great power country. ”
Greystone stared into Takahashi's eyes and said, "If your country prepares for a war against the Russians as a war against the Qing state, then I think your country's defeat is inevitable. Considering your country's ability to withstand defeat, to put it mildly, you are not as good as Qing Guo at this point. I don't think it's going to be easy for investors to take risks if you don't have a 10 percent interest rate on your treasuries. ”
Greystone's understanding of the situation, especially Japan, surprised Takahashi, how much money was in the treasury, and Takahashi might not be able to say the specific number, but he knew that that number would not be much different from what Greystone said. As for how much money would be needed for the war, the military men said much less than Greystone, believing that if the government could borrow more than 100 million yen, it would be enough. It's just that those guys in the army are telling the truth, Takahashi is very skeptical.
First, those guys in the army, whether they are in the army or the navy, like to talk big has become a kind of political correctness. For example, in the army and school, the instructor tells you that you are leading a company and suddenly you find the enemy in front, what should you do? If you are foolish enough to reply, "Send someone to scout and see how many there are, and then make a decision." "Then you don't want to pass, because the correct answer is: divide the soldiers into two ways, surround them, and destroy them. As for whether it is better to consider how many people there are on the other side or something, considering that it is not a locust army that dares to dare (mao), our great Japanese locust army never asks how many enemies there are, only where they are! With such a climate, these guys often don't have enough room when they make a budget.
The second is that the guys in the army are counting on fighting wars and getting rich, and they may be worried that if they say too much money they need, the soft bones of the government will use this as an excuse to refuse to go to war. So, they might just say a small number first, and then when the fight starts, they're asking for an add-on. Anyway, at this time, the government gritted its teeth and tried to help them withstand. For example, when the armies of the later lighthouse countries were developing the F-35 fat electric fighter, they first fooled Congress that this product was cheap, and the unit price would not exceed 30 million US dollars, which was cheaper than the Capitol fighter F-16. It's so cheap, can Congress still not approve it? Is it still a person who does not approve? Then, after a while of development, the money is not enough, so I will sue the Congress again, and there will be some problems, and a little more appropriation is needed. Most of the problems are solved, and with a little more money, it will be done. Although this is a bit overspending, but if you don't continue to burn money, the money spent in front of you will be spent in vain, so Congress had to add another amount, and then after a while, in the end, the goods were finally offline, and the unit price became more than 120 million.
Takahashi was also very aware of the army's cautious eyes, so when Greystone said the number of 200 million to 300 million, Takahashi felt that this number might be much more reliable than the one given by the army.
"Mr. McDonald, Mr. Morgan, Mr. Schiff." Takahashi said, "I have a building that can effectively reduce everyone's risk. I wonder if you're interested in listening? ”
Greystone furrowed his eyebrows slightly, and then said, "Tell me what you think." ”
"I think it's sometimes hard to say how little money the war will take, but we can sell a portion of the Treasury bonds at an interest rate that everyone is happy with, and sign a memorandum to continue the purchase, and wait until the war has been going on for a while, and then we can discuss the subsequent sale of the Treasury bonds and its interest rate according to the shape of the war. At this time, if we still need to continue to issue government bonds, with the situation on the battlefield as a reference, the risk is much smaller when making judgments. Takahashi said.
Little Morgan looked at Greystone, then at Jacob Schiff, then nodded and said, "Mr. Takahashi, your construction is very interesting. I think we can talk about it. ”
Of course, the specific negotiation does not have to be handled by people like Morgan and Greystone, they just agree on the approximate amount together, as well as the interest rate and mortgage. Since at the beginning, the number of sales required was not large, only 60 million, so even if the interest rate is high, the collateral is a little more expensive, and it is not unacceptable for the Japanese. Anyway, after the war, if you are a qiē shun lì, then naturally a qiē is easy to talk about, if you don't follow the lì, then how bad can the situation be, anyway, you can't swallow the dynasty completely. Xian, as well as as Manchuria, was enough to collapse the Japanese economy, and if the war was lost, Japan would go from being a diner at the table to an ingredient on the table. Anyway, the situation can't be worse anymore, and the danger of debt at this time is a small matter.
Without any worries, the negotiations became much smoother, and soon they reached a basic framework: the interest rate on the first bond was 6 percent, and the Japanese government leased a certain piece of land in southern Taiwan for a long time to the MacDonald consortium, the Morgan consortium, and the Midwest Union Bank to form a joint company, which used the land rent as collateral. A fishing port near Hokkaido was leased to a joint company set up by MacDonald and Morgan and allowed to engage in fishing, secured by fishing port rents and fishing taxes.