While the Japanese are deducing the odds of victory in this decisive battle, the Taiwan side is also beginning to deduce how many chances it will have in this decisive battle against Japan. Especially the strength of the two sides in this decisive battle, this is a very important reference. Both of them have their own advantages, and Taiwan occupies a "hardware" advantage, that is, the battleships are obviously much better than the Japanese side, and the parameters at the level of battleships are also much better. However, Japan obviously has an advantage in "software," and the quality of Japan's sailors is obviously very good, and their quality is much better than that of Taiwan's sailors, and in particular, their ability to resist pressure is much better than that of Taiwan's sailors. So now they're all in a very peculiar situation, so everybody has to start thinking about the real outcome of the game.

"According to our intelligence, the Japanese have already joined forces with the Americans, and they are likely to collude and then fight a decisive battle with us. This time we will face an enemy with eight battleships, and their battleship soldiers are much better than ours, and their soldiers are obviously more experienced than us. Although the level of training may be the same, we are significantly inferior to them in terms of ability to work under pressure. They are all naval countries with many years of naval history, and our navy has only been established for a few years, and many of our navy officers and men have never really had combat experience. In terms of combat experience, it is obviously much worse than the navies of Japan and the United States. If we go head-to-head with them, what are our chances of winning? ”

Qiu Baoren, chief of staff of the Navy, is asking the Navy's staff officers to conduct a deduction and then estimate the chances of winning this strategic decisive battle with the Japanese and the Americans. This time, the victory of the Taiwan army must be guaranteed, and if the navies of the Americans and the Japanese can be defeated this time, then this time it means that they can control the sea along the coast of China, and the Eight-Nation Coalition in Tianjin will completely lose supplies, and it is only a matter of time before it is destroyed. Therefore, this sea supremacy is an important means of cutting off the supply of the Eight-Nation Coalition and their retreat. is a vital tool. Therefore, this decisive battle can only succeed, not fail. Once defeated, the current war situation will also be very dangerous for Taiwan.

"Chief of Staff Qiu is here, this time we have a sixty percent chance of winning, and this is based on the premise that we dispatched Sword-class battleships and submarines. to have such a chance of winning. A chief staff officer said.

"It's only sixty percent?" Qiu Baoren wondered.

And the chief staff officer replied: "Chief of Staff Qiu, in fact, if it is the real situation, it may not be so low. Because according to our long-standing habit, that is, it is necessary to calculate the enemy's combat effectiveness according to the most powerful method, and our side must calculate the combat strength according to the most unfavorable situation possible, so we calculate that it is about sixty percent. ”

According to Wang Guorui's guidance on the staff officers of the staff department, that is, the enemy must be calculated according to the highest combat effectiveness, and for his own side, he must be calculated according to the lowest combat effectiveness. The core meaning of this sentence is to take the initiative to hang a "pig's foot halo" on the enemy, and then hang a "bad luck halo" on yourself. Calculate the actual combat strength of the enemy according to 200 percent, and reduce the combat strength of your own side to 60 percent. Overestimating the enemy as much as possible, and underestimating himself as much as possible on the other hand, this is also Wang Guorui's guidance to the staff department.

The reason why Wang Guorui did this was to let those staff officers calculate as much as possible and ensure that the staff officers of the Taiwan army were cautious. Because Wang Guorui once watched before Japan went to war against the Americans in World War II, they once had a very ridiculous deduction. The Japanese calculated the combat effectiveness of the Americans according to the lowest level, but they calculated their own combat effectiveness according to the highest level. As a result, they actually calculated that they could easily defeat the Americans, and then they all took the initiative to start the Pacific War. Such a result. That is, he was taught a hard lesson by the Americans.

Such an idiotic method of calculation actually seriously underestimates the enemy's combat effectiveness, but seriously overestimates his own combat effectiveness, such a staff officer is not helping himself, but pit the entire army! Therefore, Wang Guorui's guidance for those staff officers is to overestimate the enemy's combat effectiveness as much as possible. Then underestimate your own combat effectiveness as much as possible, so that the calculation can be considered the most reasonable. Although in fact this may not be the case, the enemy's combat effectiveness cannot be absolutely maintained at the highest level, and his own combat effectiveness is not as weak as imagined, but this is to ensure the prudence of the staff officers. Absolute combat effectiveness is guaranteed without being disturbed by some so-called accidents. Only in this way can we overestimate the enemy's combat effectiveness as much as possible and underestimate our own combat effectiveness, so that we can ensure that we are not afraid of any accidents.

Hearing this, Qiu Baoren finally nodded, because if according to this analysis, in fact, if the Taiwan army can get a 60% chance of winning, it can often get at least an 80% chance of winning when other armies deduce, or even 90% of the possibility. According to the army's deduction all along, if there is a 60 percent chance of victory, the final victory will definitely belong to the Taiwan army. This harsh and abnormal deduction method is simply deliberately deceiving one's own staff officers. However, this has also allowed these staff officers to grow up rapidly, so that they can become an excellent staff officer and a qualified staff officer as soon as possible.

"How much do we lose?" Qiu Baoren asked.

And the chief staff officer replied: "If we estimate the losses, we probably have very heavy losses." If we calculate according to the calculations, we will not have more than seven battleships left, and only the Sword-class battleships will be able to survive. Other Sovereign-class battleships may be seriously injured or even sunk. As for the losses of the sailors on board, we cannot deduce in detail at the moment. And other cruisers, etc., we also suffered very heavy losses, and there will be no more than half of them left. As for the destroyers, if the destroyers go to war, then I can't calculate it. Because the vast majority of destroyers will not take part in such a large-scale decisive battle. ”

"How can the losses be so heavy?" Qiu Baoren also had some liver tremors.

However, the chief staff officer comforted him: "Chief of staff, this is just a theoretical calculation, in fact, we may not lose so much." If the commander had been able to make a good decision at that time, he might have been able to save most of it. Even, if we prepare properly, we can even keep the vast majority of sailors. As long as the sailors are saved, then a fleet can be formed again. Although our battleships and cruisers were much more numerous than theirs, in fact we were able to exert very poor combat effectiveness. Even about half of the Japanese and Americans, and even once the battle has been going on for more than five hours, our soldiers' ability to resist pressure and their ability to cooperate in various ways will also be seriously reduced, and in the end it will inevitably cause a serious decline in the combat effectiveness of our soldiers, and in fact the combat effectiveness is less than one-fifth of the initial combat effectiveness. However, the combat effectiveness of the navies of the Japanese and Americans can be maintained by about 60 percent. So, the longer the battle drags on, the worse it will be for us. ”

"Do you mean you want us to do it quickly?" Qiu Baoren asked.

"Yes, the sooner the battle is over, the better it will be for us. Once the time drags on, the combat effectiveness of our sailors will drop very badly. Our soldiers' ability to resist pressure and willpower are obviously inferior to those of the Japanese and American navies, so the best way to deal with the enemy as quickly as possible is to be able to deal with the enemy. As soon as time drags on, the further back we go, the more disadvantageous our navy will be. ”

"If we can guarantee that the battle will be over within two hours, then we may have a 70% chance of winning!" The chief staff officer replied.

But Qiu Baoren replied; "The Japanese are not stupid, they should know very well that the psychological quality of our navy's sailors is far inferior to theirs, so they may resort to procrastination and then delay until the combat effectiveness of our sailors is seriously reduced before they will fight us in a decisive battle. The Japanese will definitely know our weaknesses, so let's not pin our hopes on the Japanese to fight us quickly. The Japanese will use procrastination with us, and with what I know about the Japanese, they will definitely be so prepared. Since the more time drags on, the worse it is for us, so what do we do? ”

Everyone couldn't help but be silent, because the Japanese would not fail to see this, and obviously they would definitely know that the strength of the Taiwanese Navy is not good, especially the quality of the soldiers. The more the battle continues, the more likely the gap in their combat effectiveness will be. In other words, once the battle drags on, the balance of victory will gradually tilt in favor of Japan and the United States. If a quick victory can be achieved, then the possibility of victory for the Taiwan Navy is still not small.

"Chief of Staff Qiu, are we not far behind, since we can't directly defeat them with normal combat methods. Then I have an idea, can we have a game of horse racing? Immediately, a staff officer suddenly thought.

"Tian Ji horse racing? How to play? Qiu Baoren asked.

"Actually, according to the plan we made before, we used the submarine and the sword-class battleship as the last hole cards. According to the previous plan, our Sword-class battleships and submarines were the last to be used, as our top hole cards. Then we might as well change the method and another way of thinking, why should we put these two at the end? Since it's all about being exposed anyway, we might as well ......," the staff officer replied.

"What do you mean?" Qiu Baoren asked.

"I mean so......" replied the staff officer.

"Oh? That's a good idea! Qiu Baoren suddenly exclaimed. (To be continued.) )