Chapter 541: Rich and Poor (Part II)
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The concept of gross national product was actually secretly changed by Yang Qiu, and there is no such term in the world at present, only the statistical method of gross industrial and peasant value of the United States, which was first adopted by Wall Street in the United States in 1908. This statistical method is a bit rougher than that of later generations, but it can still objectively reflect the economic situation of various countries.
In fact, since he came back, he found that there was a lack of effective national statistics, both the population and the economy were shouted out by everyone, and there were no numbers to prove at all, and he had been suffering from not being able to show a complete digital Republic of China. Later, after learning from Hanger that Wall Street in the United States had been using the National Workers' and Peasants' Statistics Method since 1908, he immediately sent people to study it and hired experts to teach him. In order to increase accuracy, from 1913, he also sent people to the United States to study and introduce a large number of mechanical computers, and in 15 years, he spent 500,000 US dollars to buy the latest patents from Switzerland, which were copied in China. Since 16 years, all universities have also been required to add mechanical computer courses to solve the problem of slow efficiency in design, manufacturing and statistics.
Statistical law was learned, and mechanical computers began to become popular, but this figure that he didn't even know before the meeting was really unexpected!
He was not surprised by the total value of industry, and after a series of cheats and abductions from 1912 onwards, this investment was still available, because Russia alone moved back to 3.7 billion. Even though the European war mainly produces military industry, several industrial groups are also producing industrial equipment and selling it to the whole country, which is calculated into the gross value, so this figure should be said to be very conservative. And because France is recovering slowly. Russian industry was paralyzed, and both Italy and Japan shrank badly. Austro-Hungarian disintegration and other factors, the total amount of world industry is actually lower than in 14 years. So it's not surprising that it's 5%.
But the total value of the $49 billion swap concept is terrifying! The United States is only 88 billion US dollars, and the British colonies all over the world are only 57 billion US dollars, if according to this figure, even according to the minimum annual growth rate of the Republic of China of 7%, Britain 3%, seven years later, it will surpass Britain to become the second in the world?
Actually, you really have to be prepared. The world's third-largest economy is not surprising, the Qing Dynasty was still the world's first, and the United States also looked up to China, Britain, France and other countries to draw dazzling digital circles. The gross value of workers and peasants is more completely imaginary, even if it is now calculated according to the 460 million (not counting the reclaimed land) population of the Statistics Bureau last year. It is only $106 per capita, nearly 10 times worse than that of the United States, and the difference in electricity, energy, steel and grain production is even greater.
But when he heard this number in a completely unprepared state, he was indeed shocked! In fact, the gap between the rich and the poor in China is very large, but after the complete preservation of the Manchu legacy, it is far less outrageous than after the warlord melee for decades.
This flutter also caused everyone to turn their heads, and even Pei Zuyi stopped narrating and looked at Yang Qiu, and his eyes were so good that he saw the monster. Li Yuanhong even leaned closer and asked, "Chenhua, what's so funny about this?" ”
yes, what's so funny about that?
Yang Qiu looked around. I found that everyone was surprised that this figure was not as good as the income just now, and suddenly realized that it was my own gaffe. After opening his mouth and pointing to the number, he suddenly stopped. Because he suddenly discovered something, in fact, Li Yuanhong and these people also have their own pride! In the final analysis, he was too deeply influenced by the propaganda and warlord period of later generations, but he did not know all aspects of the country as well as the people of this era. There was a gap between the Republic of China and the world, but it was not to the extent that it was necessary to bow and worship, and even after successive indemnities in the First Sino-Japanese and Gengzi years, the total economic output of the Manchu Qing Dynasty in 1911 was still more than three times that of Japan. And after picking up industry again in 1912, it has in fact become the sixth largest industrial country after Britain, the United States, France, Germany and Italy! The GDP is five times that of Japan. The total industrial value is twice that of Japan, and the real gap is in technology rather than economy.
Pei Zuyi's ears were a little hot, and he was even a little angry in private, because he misunderstood that Yang Qiu didn't believe in this number. You must know that in order to complete the national economic census proposed by Yang Qiu, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Civil Affairs, the Bureau of Statistics, and even the police and the National Guard have all been dispatched, and the above has repeatedly demanded accuracy, and each number is counted separately by two groups of people, and whoever makes a mistake will be rolled up and go home.
It's no wonder that the young man doesn't have a temper when he works so hard and is suspicious, so he immediately blushes his neck and says, "Vice President." We sent people to the United States to study financial statistics, and it took more than two years to complete the statistics, and finally we hired American financial experts to review the accounting, so we can guarantee that this figure cannot be said to be 100% accurate, but it is certainly only a little. ”
"Anything less?" Cai Ye couldn't help but pat his forehead and looked at Zhang Wenjing. The latter rolled his eyes and said with a little resentment: "Of course there is a leak!" Your army has not recovered the northeast and northwest so far, and the national stability is not yet complete, so how can we count it? ”
Looking at his eyes, Cai Ye decided not to argue with him, daring to love that the army was dragging the country back.
Pei Zuyi continued: "In fact, there is an algorithm that is the simplest to be accurate. Taking last year as an example, China's central fiscal revenue was 3 billion yuan, and because China is far from getting rid of the hat of an agricultural country, the tax rate is lower than the general 8 percent to 9 percent in industrial countries, and only about 5 percent, so the tax revenue is about 2.5 billion yuan. However, compared with Europe and the United States, China has three more items: the monopoly of salt and tobacco, the profits of state-owned enterprises, and the government's overseas investment, and these three items happened to increase the revenue of the central government by 500 million yuan last year. ”
Yang Qiu heard the meaning of his words, smiled and got up and bowed: "This matter is my fault, and I apologize to the Ministry of Finance and the staff involved in this statistics." Actually, I was thinking, it turns out that we people are not useless, and we finally kept the third position. ”
"Huh."
Everyone not only admired Yang Qiu's measure of getting up and apologizing in person, but also was happy for the words that followed. They are all important members of the government, no matter what their intentions are, who doesn't want to make some political achievements that will be remembered by future generations in their status? Otherwise, Li Yuanhong would not have lowered his eyes and wanted to be the first official president.
Pei Zuyi didn't expect Yang Qiu to apologize in person, but was a little embarrassed to add: "Actually, the vice president doesn't need to be surprised, don't look at my country, which is already the third in the world, but the gap between the rich and the poor in China is very large!" Moreover, the per capita difference with the United States is 9 times, and even Japan had 8 billion last year, but their population is only 90 percent of China's, and China's citizens are not as rich as the Japanese on a per capita basis. ”
Zhang Wenjing also took the opportunity to say: "This statistics is indeed of little significance, and can only reflect the overall level of the country." Don't look at our fiscal revenue of 3 billion last year, but we can't afford to spend too much.
Free education is the top priority, according to statistics, the actual education coverage of the population is only 250 million, more than 5,500 schoolchildren, subsidies for more than 10,000 private schools across the country, more than 40,000 foreign teachers (the introduction of the European War Plum Blossom Agreement), China's own teachers are only 510,000, the shortage of millions of huge! This alone costs 1.2 billion dollars a year! If we include the entire land and population, we expect to spend at least 2 billion per year! The military is also the big one, with 800 million yuan a year that cannot be shaken, and the remaining 1 billion is government expenditure and construction investment. However, last year alone, the government and construction expenditure on various construction projects amounted to 3 billion yuan. Losses aside, there will be a deficit of 2 billion per year.
The fact that we have been able to maintain it for so many years mainly depends on three aspects: first, we are now issuing about 1 billion yuan of national debt subsidies every year, second, the military spending in the three years from 16 to 18 years was actually borne by Britain and France, saving a lot, and the 5 billion yuan loan and war proceeds just made up for this big loophole. But all this money has been spent, and I spent more than 400 million yuan on this trip, either let Songpa go to provoke Europe and the United States to continue to fight, or there is still no sign of improvement in finances. ”
"Haha."
Everyone was happy, but they also understood the difficulties of the country. Don't look at 49 billion seems to be rich, but the annual deficit of 2 billion is a solid pressure, Qiu Baoren, who originally wanted to discuss with the Ministry of Finance after the meeting to allocate funds to build a few more warships, hurriedly put away this thought, in the past, they always felt that the navy was always a little embarrassed that grandma did not love uncle and uncle, but now they know that it is not that they don't want to build, but that the country really has no money.
This education, in particular, is so costly! However, this national policy, the king of heaven, Lao Tzu, did not dare to mention abolishing it. Education for all is a must, and if the country wants to become rich and strong, national rejuvenation depends on education! Looking at the world, Britain, the United States, France, and Germany, these industrial powers, didn't that popularize secondary education? Even Japan, which was defeated, had a higher percentage of educated population than the Republic of China in terms of average.
Seeing everyone's cold scene, Pei Zuyi gave full play to the style of young people who dared to speak up and dare to do, and said loudly: "Difficulties are not insurmountable, every penny invested in industry, railways, communications and electricity by the country now, the return will be several times or even dozens of times in a few years!" Therefore, according to our analysis, there are three main ways to change the current predicament. The first is to learn from Europe and the United States as soon as possible, abolish the gold standard, turn gold and silver into commodities instead of currency, and use the price difference to withdraw a large amount of gold and silver to issue banknotes, according to our predictions, this alone can increase the circulation of about 2 billion banknotes!
The second is to levy industrial and commercial value-added tax as soon as possible and raise tariffs on some goods, which can not only protect national enterprises, but also raise the current average tax to 6%.
Third, it is necessary to lift the grain ban as soon as possible, because this will increase peasants' incomes and increase the proportion of state finances. ”
Yang Qiu agreed with the first two opinions, but the third made him frown secretly. To be honest, the current rapid development of industry is not only because of the European war, but also because of the deliberate suppression of food prices. The price of grain in the Republic of China is actually much lower! This was done by Yang Qiu on purpose, because maintaining grain prices at extremely low prices and not hesitating to rely on state-owned farms and foreign procurement to crack down on the trend of rising domestic agricultural prices is actually a disguised subsidy to industry. Because the price of grain is the basis of all prices, once the price of grain rises, wages, raw materials, and so on will rise, which will inevitably lead to a reduction in input by the national capitalists who are just starting out. Although this method is more subtle than Japan's deliberate inflated food prices, and the illiterate common people even think that this is the good life, in fact it is the exploitation of the peasants.
Even Yang Qiu himself knew that the method of stimulating the market and social development with scissors difference was an extremely exploitative act of agriculture, which could be practiced in the early stage of economic development in a backward country, but with social development, the gap between the rich and the poor would widen, and social contradictions would be seriously increased.
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