To bet or not to bet?

To bet or not?!

At the beginning of the 20th century, the sky over Japan was always haunted by the haunting theory of national fortune gambling, from the First Sino-Japanese War to Japan and Russia, and then to the National War of 918 to Pearl Harbor.

In the face of the sudden sound of gunfire in Europe, Japan, which had won the first two bets, came to a crossroads again.

Whether it was Masaki Terauchi on the front line, or Yoshiichi Tanaka and other senior officers in the Japanese army base camp in Tokyo, there were only two sides of the coin left in their minds. Clear-eyed people know at a glance that this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, once the European war breaks out, Britain, France and Germany will all shrink, and Asia is facing a major reshuffle opportunity, is there anything wrong with a self-proclaimed Asian leader Japan standing up at this moment?

But in the eyes of the upper echelons of the democratic government in the early Taisho period, Japan was not prepared this time. The gambling theory of national fortune is not a pat on the head, but needs to carefully calculate the strength of the enemy and the enemy, and calculate whether the game of snake swallowing elephant can be completed. The current situation is that Fengtian has not opened the situation for a full month, even if he was caught off guard before, but after the counterattack of Zhengyi in the temple, a small Gaizhou alone fought for three days with more than 3,000 casualties, plus the fifth division was ambushed by a submarine at the mouth of Arthur, and the losses exceeded 5,000 in six days! If you add the previous 38th Wing and the Railway Escort Force, etc., the Japanese army, which was known as invincible before the war, has suffered more than 13,000 casualties and lost more than 200 million yuan in property in a month.

After the Russo-Japanese War, this was the first time that the whole of Japan was so painful.

However, most of the people who were heartbroken were civil officials and ordinary people, but there was another mainstream view within the Japanese army, that is, the Wehrmacht had also reached its limit, and their superior squad firepower was revealed to the world, and Japan had only taken out less than one-fifth of its strength. Because in their opinion, with the newly formed 19th and 20th divisions, the Japanese army already has 20 standing divisions, even if many divisions and regiments are reduced to only skeletons, but the domestic reserve is not vegetarian. With the skeleton of non-commissioned officers, as long as the soldiers are filled, they can be pulled out to fight, and the gap in the firepower of the squad is not a problem, and various factories in the country are also concentrating on manufacturing machine guns, and the Type 38 machine guns in the warehouse, the Haqikaisi machine guns and all kinds of captured Russian machine guns are also being continuously transported to Mukden to narrow the gap.

More importantly, they believed that they could take advantage of this opportunity to get the support of the allies, and as long as they could cling to Britain's unshirkable posture as an Asian ally, and cooperate with the defeat of the German army in Qingdao, they could forgive some of their debts and even obtain new loans, then Japan would still be able to fight a full-scale war.

The only problems were probably the shipping and financial pressures, the former being the departure of all the leased ships due to the ambush outside Arthur, and the fact that Japan had to compensate the British and Dutch for the loss of $1 million each. As for the Ministry of Finance and Military Affairs, I didn't think about it at all, because as long as we can take Manchuria, Mongolia, the Jiaodong Peninsula and even the entire North China, we can get it back dozens or even hundreds of times, not to mention that there is an extremely eye-catching Qingdao there! German investment in Qingdao is quite large, and the shipyard and the Jiaoji Railway alone are worth tens of millions.

To bet or not to bet?

While the excitement of the military officials was uncontrollable, Prime Minister Shigenobu Okuma first expressed his opinion: "Before the end of the Mukden War, it is not appropriate to send troops to other parts of China because the finances cannot support it. ”

With Prime Minister Shigenobu Okuma's speech, the democrats in the Senate such as Inuyang Yi and Saionji Gongwang also stood up one after another to express that the war should not be expanded, and the country that was originally fighting this battle in Mukden was caught off guard and confused, and there is still no clear goal in strategy, so all resources should be concentrated to solve Mukden and Manchuria. This made the face of Yama Prefecture Youpeng, who attended the Senate meeting for the first time in several years, gloomy, and his razor-like eyes swept over the faces of these people again and again.

While there is a lot of noise in Japan over both sides of the coin, there are also people in China who are anxious.

Zhang Shizhao rushed from Shanghai to Nanjing as soon as possible, and discussed with Wu Tingfang and Cai Yuanpei how to stop the Sino-German alliance. If the Sino-German alliance strategy continues, it will inevitably drag the countries that are only beginning to improve into the whirlpool.

Wu Tingfang leaned on the sofa, touched his beard and kept shaking his head: "It's difficult!" Before declaring war on Japan, Yang Qiu's accusations still shocked him a lot as the foreign minister, so after he came back, he took the initiative to hand over more power to Wang Zhengting and Gu Weijun, although he did not approve of continuing to form an alliance this time, but the current momentum of the Kuomintang could not pry the big tree of the national society in any case, and said: "The matter of alliance or non-alignment is no longer our final say, the national society has eighty percent of the seats, and we can only influence Guangdong and Fujian a little in the upper and lower provinces of the country." In addition, the prestige of Lian Zhan Lianjie in the north is no one can compare, and even the national society is also rising, and there are as many as 200,000 young people who joined the national society last month alone, who can move this big stone? ”

"Then we can't sit back and watch him put the country in danger!" Cai Yuanpei got up and took two steps, with a firm expression: "The Republican Party's thoughts should be similar to ours, you can contact Zhang Jizhi, it's a big deal, I'll go directly to the president and Tang Shaoyi, anyway, Yang Qiu always has to give them a little face." ”

Zhang Shizhao was the most anxious, this matter was not trivial, and if it succeeded, it could slightly restore the disadvantage of the Kuomintang in the domestic political arena, so he immediately pulled the three to the presidential palace. As soon as the three of them arrived, they saw Zhang Jizhi also coming, and they suddenly felt some confidence to go to the president's office.

"The president, the prime minister, Minister Wu and Minister Zhang are here, saying that they have urgent matters to see you."

Wang Anlan knocked on the door and interrupted the laughter in the office, and after Li Yuanhong, the interim president, stabilized, he also rose to become the secretary general of the president. Tang Shaoyi heard that Wu Tingfang and Zhang Jizhi were coming, and even Zhang Shizhao rushed over, and said with a smile: "Chen Hua's guess is really good, they must not be able to sit still." ”

Zhang Taiyan, who was chatting with a man, was even more speechless: "I'm afraid I want to take this opportunity to regain my disadvantage." The man smiled, obviously too familiar with his big mouth: "Brother Binglin doesn't have to mind, politics is how to use every opportunity, so I very much agree with the vice president's method to temporarily stabilize the country with one-party dominance and slowly maintain the soil of the republic." ”

"Haha, it's rare that Brother Yuanyong didn't scold people today, but your article a short time ago scolded the affairs of Henan from top to bottom." As soon as the man finished speaking, Zhang Taiyan laughed, and after laughing, he deliberately squeezed his eyes: "To be honest, what was the circulation in the past few days?" ”

Tang Shaoyi really couldn't stand Zhang Taiyan's big mouth, and scolded with a smile: "When did Binglin become full of copper stench? It's also the one that your mouth will suffer in the future. Zhang Taiyan didn't care, and said with a smile: "What's wrong with the copper smell?" There is a shortage of tens of millions of education funds in this year's state budget, and if anyone gives it to me, I will let him scold him for a few days and nights. ”

While a few people were laughing and talking, Wang Anlan walked in with Wu Tingfang and others, and they were slightly stunned when they saw so many people, especially when they saw the man Zhang Shizhao, they were even more surprised: "Yuanyong? Why are you here? ”

His words made several people turn their eyes to this man in his thirties, wearing a cyan robe and glasses. Cai Yuanpei frowned even more, because the man was actually the hottest ace reporter Huang Yuansheng in China, as a representative of non-party personages, his pen was not less scolding, and the Kuomintang was suppressed by Yang Qiu until he withdrew from power, and the Republican Party was also scolded by him for being conservative and feudal, so some people have long suspected that he defected to the National Society.

Appearing here today, is it true that he defected to the National Society?

After everyone exchanged a few words, Tang Shaoyi saw everyone's thoughts and took the initiative to introduce: "Brother Yuansheng has promised the president that he will take over as an independent ** official as a non-party person after the official election next year." ”

"Is Brother Yuanyong willing to join the company?" Zhang Shizhao asked curiously, you must know that everyone knows that Huang Yuansheng gave up his official pen to become a reporter, and he also expressed his intention in the newspaper that he had no intention of becoming a publicist.

Huang Yuansheng smiled slightly, and his words were as sonorous and powerful as his article: "Brother Xingyan is wrong, Yuansheng is not a celebrity, he only ensures that the permanent independence of the judiciary is not affected by anyone or group!" ”

Wu Tingfang, who has lived in the United States for many years, particularly agrees with this, and the Kuomintang also thought about judicial independence at the beginning, but who was willing to erect a person to spy on themselves at that time? Even Mr. Sun and Huang Keqiang strongly opposed it, but they didn't expect that Yang Qiu, who was getting more and more powerful, would dare to let this thorn head serve as an independent ** official to restrain his hands and feet, and he couldn't help but sigh at his courage and determination, and he also understood a little more about the defeat of the Kuomintang in this wave of political struggle.

Huang Yuansheng wants to become an independent official after the official election, and everyone may think about it in normal times, but the more important thing at the moment is to stop the Sino-German alliance, so Wu Tingfang quickly explained his intentions: "If Europe is fine, we also agree to form an alliance with Germany, but now Mars is afraid of a prairie fire." Just now, Lu Zhengxiang also sent a telegram back from Russia, and Nicholas II had officially warned Austria-Hungary not to declare war on Serbia. Ting Fang Bucai has also studied the situation in Europe for a few days, the Franco-Russian alliance and the German-Austrian alliance are the two most important alliances of foreigners, such a stern warning will inevitably lead to a backlash, after all, it is the prince who dies. Therefore, Ting Fang felt that the possibility of a big war was already very high. Our opinion is that the President and Mr. Shaochuan should consider it in detail and persuade the Vice President to abandon the alliance for the time being and wait until Europe is calm before making plans. ”

After hearing this, Li Yuanhong suddenly laughed, and looked at Tang Shaoyi and pretended to be surprised: "Brother Wenjue, why did you come to the news that my country is going to form an alliance with Germany?" ”

Where did the news of the alliance come from? Wu Tingfang and the others were really asked, and subconsciously opened their mouths and said, "Haven't they been talking about it recently." But before he finished speaking, he suddenly remembered that all the current arguments about an alliance between China and Germany came from newspapers or grassroots people in the government, and the real core leaders never said that they wanted to form an alliance, and even Yang Qiu, who had the best relations with Germany, never officially said that he wanted to form an alliance.

But why did the non-alignment make such a big noise? Zhang Shizhao didn't quite understand, and asked: "If you don't form an alliance, why do you want to make trouble in the city?" Won't the government be able to quell the rumors by refuting them? ”

Tang Shaoyi glanced at Zhang Shizhao, this person is indeed not an official, and he can't see through the meaning of this, it can be seen that the Kuomintang is really not too harmful in his hands, and said: "Brother Xingyan lives in Shanghai and concentrates on taking care of party affairs, I am afraid that I don't understand the current national trend." After finishing speaking, he took out a piece of industrial and commercial information from his bag very seriously and said: "Don't hide it from you, from the beginning of the southwest to the end of last year, my country has purchased more than 5,000 units of various types of machinery and equipment from Germany, and after the news of the alliance broke at the beginning of this year, Germany exported more than 2,000 units to us in only two months, and the price is two percent cheaper than usual, including two 5,000-ton hydraulic presses and two double-axis precision machine tools. I don't understand these two things, but a few years ago, Chenhua offered tens of millions of dollars to offer to various countries, and no one sold them to us, which shows the great value! ”

In just a few figures, everyone here understood that Yang Qiu deliberately spread the alliance to make Germany feel that there was a chance, and then took the opportunity to obtain equipment and machines at a low price that they could not buy before, and this alone had to admire his wrist. Tang Shaoyi continued: "Before Europe and the United States are not pacified, don't say that we old guys will not form an alliance, and the vice president will definitely not take this move. At present, Japan's cause of harm to our country is still Japan, and the most urgent task at the moment is to mobilize the strength of the whole country to pacify the north, and we must not drag the front-line officers and men back. Therefore, the vice president sent a telegram yesterday, demanding that the reserve forces currently recruited be organized into 15 regular divisions and regiments to prevent the Japanese from jumping over the wall in a hurry to take advantage of the chaos in Europe and launching an invasion of North China when various countries cannot get out! ”

His words put everyone at ease, the affairs of the 15 divisions and regiments were originally agreed to by the Congress, it was nothing more than a formal walk, only Zhang Jizhi frowned slightly and said: "President, Prime Minister." Wouldn't it offend Germany to spread the word of alliance without the intention of forming an alliance? ”

Yang Qiu had already told Li Yuanhong the whole plan, so he narrowed his eyes and smiled: "It's up to you." ”

"Rely on us?"

Tang Shaoyi got up and looked at Huang Yuansheng, and arched his hand slightly: "Yuanyong, the newspaper and public opinion are going to be handed over to you, as for how you can help, it is very simple, the president has just convened a plenary meeting of parliamentarians in three days to discuss the situation in Europe and the war against Japan, you might as well make trouble, after all, we are still a republican system, not a family." ”

Zhang Shizhao stared at the beads of the balls and was completely convinced after listening! It turned out that Yang Qiu had already calculated the way out, and he was going to engage in that set of hijacking the name, and he looked at Zhang Jizhi and sighed bitterly in his heart: "This is also called republican politics?" It's all in people's hands! Obviously, this time the two parties are going to be led out to walk their dogs again. Fighting with such a person, I really don't know when I will come out. ”

On July 2, just as the world's eyes began to turn from the Far East to Europe, the Kuomintang and the Republicans joined forces to formally demand the abandonment of the Sino-German alliance bill at an enlarged session of the National Assembly quietly held in Nanjing. This argument was also supported by the overwhelming majority of the National Socialists, who believed that if Europe was at peace, then an alliance with Germany would be a good strategy for the country's rapid development, but if war broke out in Europe, it would have to maintain strict neutrality.

Prince Reinhardt, who was preparing to return home, had to postpone his trip, visited Li Yuanhong and Tang Shaoyi and made several promises, and Bernard, the British envoy who had just arrived a few days later, followed him into the presidential palace in Nanjing, and left for Beijing that night.

A game of national choice is unfolding vigorously.