"Taiwan is an important barrier to China's southeast coast and vital to its national security. Geographically, it is a natural barrier to China's southeastern coastal provinces. It mirrors Hainan Island in the south and Zhoushan Islands in the north. With Taiwan as the center, connecting Hainan Island and the Zhoushan Islands, the two key points in the north and south, it will form a natural but powerful strategic coastal defense line of Pinzi, which is sufficient to cover the six provinces and cities along the southeast coast and the strategic depth in this direction. The southeastern coastal provinces are the regions with the largest economic and wealth accumulation in China, especially Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, as well as Guangdong, which can be said to be the most developed regions in China. If we take central Taiwan, which is located between these two deltas, as the center of the circle, and Shanghai as the radius, draw a circle with a radius of about 600 kilometers, and the most developed provinces and cities in Chinese mainland and one-fifth of the population are in this circle. ”

"In addition, from the perspective of sea and air shipping traffic, Taiwan and the waters near the Taiwan Strait occupy a transportation hub position in the western Pacific region. It is not only the key point of China's maritime north-south communication, but also the only place to connect Japan, Korea, the Soviet Far East, and the Malay Archipelago, the Indian Ocean, the Middle East, Europe and Africa! ”

"The Chinese want to seize this place, in addition to the shame left by the Qing Dynasty, and more importantly, to curb the momentum of Japan's advance in another direction. The Japanese could not, and absolutely would not dare, continue to attack Chinese mainland while Taiwan was occupied. Because its lifeline has been completely pinched in the hands of the Chinese. It is only 900 nautical miles from Taiwan to the mouth of the Yalu River on the border between North Korea and China, about 800 nautical miles to the mouth of the Beilun River on the border between China and Vietnam, and even closer to the Philippines. This distance is almost free to the activities of the Chinese Air Force. And apparently, until the appearance of fighters that can fight the 'Hellcat', Japan will not be able to fight the Chinese Air Force at all. That is, once Taiwan is conquered by the Chinese army. Not only will the Chinese mainland Japanese army be threatened, but even its proudest navy will be forcibly suppressed by the Chinese Air Force, and even the Sea of Japan may not be able to get out...... And once it falls into such a situation, it can almost be said that Japan, which is poor in resources, has already been defeated. ”

Washington.

Hull read the report from the U.S. military observer group while looking at Roosevelt's face...... As secretary of state, he understood very well Roosevelt's attitude towards this new round of world war, that is, one sentence: the United States should enter the war! But now the report of the US military observer group is obviously somewhat contrary to Roosevelt's established strategy: if the Chinese really defeat Japan as quickly as they say, then that ancient empire will inevitably take advantage of the opportunity of the European war to rise rapidly. That's it. Will the United States still have a part in the Western Pacific in the future?

"What do you think of this report?"

Roosevelt's expression was solemn. Naturally, he could think of what Hull could think of. To be honest, he did not think the mission's report was accurate, nor did he believe that the Chinese could take Taiwan. After all, Taiwan is huge, an island only a little smaller than Switzerland and bigger than the Netherlands. And the Japanese have been operating on it for more than forty years. Nearly half a century. The Chinese's plan looks tempting, but they want to go down such a large area in one fell swoop. Obviously unreasonable. And if you can't take Taiwan at the beginning. The Japanese will definitely desperately counterattack, and with the strength of the Chinese, they will definitely not be able to block such a ferocious counterattack. After all, the Japanese defeated even the Soviets. However, as president, he did not need to show his military skills, and he was also worried that he would make a fool of himself if he did not perform well, so he decided to ask the others first.

"It's a very feasible plan."

Seeing that Roosevelt had his eyes on himself. Marshall had no choice but to speak. But his opening made Roosevelt's heart sink down.

"Viable?" Roosevelt was somewhat unconvinced.

This report is from Dwight. Eisenhower, although he was only a lieutenant colonel before he became the head of the mission, I was very optimistic about his abilities. That's a buried talent. Marshall first took the opportunity to recommend the person he was optimistic about, and then said: "Colonel Eisenhower proposed it in his report. The Chinese do not yet have enough planes, so this plan is somewhat blocked. However, it is clear that Taiwan's strategic position can be seen at a glance, and it is clear that the person who formulated the plan has studied the situation between China and Japan for more than a day or two. And his eyes were not just on the domestic battlefield, on the front line of the confrontation between the Chinese army and the Japanese army, as other Chinese generals did. This person should have been very confident from the outset that China would win. Therefore, this should be the plan he originally intended to use for a counterattack...... He not only wants to drive the Japanese out of China, but also counterattacks the Japanese mainland! Taiwan is the base from which he launched a counteroffensive. ”

"I know who that guy is, but what I want to know now is what you are saying about Lu Dao, why do you say that this plan is very feasible at this time?" Roosevelt asked: "George, the Chinese should not launch a counteroffensive at this time!" They don't have the strength and they choose the wrong time. ”

"The Chinese didn't pick the wrong time." Marshall shook his head, "Mr. President, almost all of Japan's forces have been distributed. They have a large presence in China, in Siberia, and now in Vietnam...... Especially in Siberia, they will have a decisive battle with the Soviets this year. Therefore, the Japanese government is almost doing its best to support there. As one of Japan's most important colonies, Taiwan is also constantly sending personnel and supplies to the front line...... There's no information, but I'm sure it's empty! Therefore, if the Chinese launch a surprise attack, it is very likely that they will occupy one or two cities in a short period of time, and then, borrowing airlift, quickly transport 100,000 or more troops there. ”

"But how did they deal with the Japanese counterattack?" Hull asked.

"Air Force!" Marshall replied, "Fighter escorts, bombers deter the Japanese Navy, transport planes transport troops and supplies...... Although their air force is still weak, as long as it is used well, the probability of success is still high. And it was clear that it was entirely possible for their Air Force commander to do that. ”

"They do not have a large number of aircraft, especially the lack of advanced fighters. And Taiwan is so important to Japan, so once the two sides are at war, the Japanese will definitely do their best, and even concentrate a large number of aircraft to consume the strength of the Chinese. China's already weak air force will be quickly depleted in a short time. That's it. Their army in Taiwan will be alone and will soon be wiped out. Roosevelt said.

"That's true. But only if it ...... The Japanese were willing to give up their victory in Siberia! "Just like China against Japan, Japan has no advantage over the Soviet Union, except for the Air Force!" So, unless there is a willingness to abandon Siberia, to give up large territories that are almost at your fingertips, to give up those hundreds of thousands of troops who have already rushed behind the back of the Soviet Red Army, in a short time. They will not be able to contain the offensive of the Chinese. ”

"But they still have the Army. It is impossible for the Chinese to occupy the whole of Taiwan in a short period of time, so as long as the Japanese seize the opportunity, they can completely transport a large number of troops to Taiwan. After all, almost all of China's coastal provinces are in their hands, and Taiwan is not far from Chinese mainland. It's not even far from mainland Japan. Hull said.

"I'm afraid there aren't many troops in Japan anymore, and the only ones they can come back to help are those troops in China. But the problem is. Since the Chinese have drawn up such a plan. And how could they allow the Japanese troops in front of them to retreat easily? Marshall said: "And even if the Chinese agree to the Japanese retreat, then won't many of the Japanese wars since 1937 be meaningless?" Because Chinese will easily take back the territory they have robbed...... Moreover, this weak performance will have a huge impact on China's anti-Japanese battlefield, and those who are willing to cooperate with the Japanese will inevitably be greatly reduced. And in a country like China, with a population of four or five billion, once most of the people there are on the opposite side of Japan, for a country like Japan that is poor in resources. It would also be a disaster. The consequences may be no less severe than the occupation of Taiwan, and in the long run, they may be even more terrible. ”

That is to say. Did the Chinese choose the right time? Roosevelt asked, twisting his forehead.

"It's not just the right timing, the Chinese can even be said to be able to advance and retreat freely to some extent." "As long as their air force remains superior, they can retreat calmly even if they lose the land battle in Taiwan," Marshall said. However, this will need to test their commander's grasp of the situation. ”

"According to the report of our observer mission, there is no shortage of good officers in China. They just lack a strong industrial base and a fairly unified government. Hull added again.

"You mean we have to return the planes we detained to the Chinese?" Roosevelt was in trouble. He thought that this plan was not feasible, but Marshall's analysis made him a little apprehensive. In his opinion, if he were Chiang Kai-shek, when the war between China and Japan had reached the current point, he would have taken a risk if he encountered such a plan with the possibility of success. If it fails, it will be enough to lose some of the soldiers behind the palace, as long as most of them can be withdrawn. And if it succeeds, it will be a turning point in the war.

"I'm afraid so." Marshall said lightly: "We are not the only choice for the Chinese. If we don't return those planes to the Chinese, I suspect that they will most likely turn to the USSR for a request! And I am almost certain that the Chinese ambassador is waiting for our reply, and if we do not reply within the allotted time, it is possible that another Chinese ambassador, also in Moscow, will propose this plan to Stalin...... I believe that the Soviet side will be happy to see the Chinese carry out this plan. This is good for the situation in Siberia! ”

"But it's not good for us." Hull also frowned slightly, "The Chinese have been very tough recently. This can be seen from their sudden occupation of the French colony. And once their actions are successful, and we don't play a good role in it, then it will not be so easy to get the corresponding benefits in China in the future. Moreover, a China with a strong air force and a certain degree of aggression will also be a huge threat to our power in Southeast Asia. After all, Taiwan is very close to the Philippines. ”

"That is, we have no choice?" Roosevelt asked rhetorically.

"At present, it seems that the Chinese do not dare to provoke us. But the problem is that if they really defeat Japan alone, they will inevitably rise. "And in the long run, a rising China definitely has the ability to challenge us." ”

"Well, I know all of that...... I just want to ask, after we detained those planes, did the Chinese ask us for them before? Roosevelt asked suddenly.

"Nope. The ambassador had only called twice to protest and had not moved since. Hull smiled wryly. He also understood what Roosevelt meant...... The Chinese have always shown that they are not in a hurry, apparently knowing in their hearts, simply waiting for them to hand the plane back by themselves.

"I hate the Chinese, and now I hate it even more!" Roosevelt leaned back on the couch in frustration, "Give them the plane......" (To be continued......