Chapter 14, Short Selling

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"Marat, can you believe it? Someone signed a contract with me, they borrowed a whole hundred tons of wheat from me, and agreed to return one hundred and ten tons of wheat to me after three months! In such a situation, someone dares to be short. I dare say that in three months, the price of wheat will go up and someone will go bankrupt! In the crowded Chicago Grain Futures Market, a short and fat man in a gray suit was shouting to another tall, thin guy. Such a combination of a short and a thin one, and considering the rosacea of Humpty Dumpty and the deep-set eyes of a tall man, it would be nice to play Sancho and Don Quixote in the theater.

"Short? Now there are still people who dare to be short? The tall and thin man spoke, his voice like a duck, "Don't they know how many fools who have been short-headed in the past few years?" Last year...... Oh the year before last - no one dared to be short last year, and since the year before last, four stupid people went bankrupt and committed suicide, there has been no such stupidity. Let's talk about it, who has become a big fool this year? ”

"You recognize, guess who?" Humpty Dumpty sold off the ball.

The tall and thin man thought for a moment, then slapped his thigh violently: "Tommy, it must be Tommy!" Of all the people I know, he is probably the stupidest. Right? ”

"No, Tommy is inflexible, but he's a coward. Do you think a coward like Tommy would dare to make such a decision? Humpty Dumpty shook his head.

"I can't guess it. Say it! ”

"Well, that's boring...... Shall I sue you, is it Draenor, Warren? Draenor! ”

"Warren? Draenau? The tall and thin man's eyes widened, "How is this possible?" He's not that stupid...... Didn't he get some inside information? Well, this year's weather is good, and most of the grain will be abundant, so the price may really ......."

"Don't scare yourself, didn't you have a good harvest last year? Wasn't there a good harvest the year before last? Humpty Dumpty asked, "Don't forget Europe!" Europe has been experiencing poor harvests all this time. And, you know, there are more Europeans and fewer places, and growing food there is not a profitable thing for them, so, you see the British, they have long stopped farming, don't worry, no problem...... And, I'm afraid you don't know why that guy made such a decision. ”

"How did you come up with such a decision?"

"He was persuaded by two little children - well, one was barely an adult at 18 years old, and the other was even 13 years old - and he actually fainted with them and went to empty wheat! Oh my God, something must be wrong with his head! ”

"How is this possible?!"

"Look, Warren? Draenor came over, well, the two little ones behind him. ”

"Quick, let's go up and say hello to this fool!"

……

Warren? Delano is walking the Chicago Grain Futures Market, the largest grain market in the entire Americas and the world's first.

"Hey, Warren, I heard, you're going to be short? Would you like to sign a futures contract with me? $8 per ton cheaper than the current price is enough! ”

"Hey, Warren, I heard ......"

People are constantly waving at him, Warren? Draenor saw the smiles on their faces as if he had seen a large pile of gold. He knew that these people had taken him for a fool, and they were all counting on waiting for him to fall, and then like a pack of hyenas, they would wipe his body clean, not sparing even the smallest bone. The smile they showed at him was nothing more than the smile of the beasts towards food, and behind that smile were sharp claws and sharp teeth.

……

On the encounter with Warren? After Draenau, Scrooge and Rockefeller had only regarded it as a chance encounter, and did not want to bring him in. Later, however, Rockefeller's habit caught the adventurer's attention: Rockefeller pulled out his little notebook and began to record the prices of today's transactions, as well as the estimated yields of the various farms he had learned.

On Rockefeller's little notebook, on one side is what he knows about last year's situation. Now, he skillfully fills in today's relevant number jΓΉ into the corresponding position. This busyness caused Warren, who was standing next to him? Draenor's attention. Warren? Draenor has exceptionally good eyesight, and every time he goes out hunting, he is always able to reach his target from a greater distance. It was the same now, even though he was standing a few steps away from Rockefeller, he could still see the contents of Rockefeller's notebook.

Warren? Draenor had some business dealings with Tuttle-Hewitt, and in the process, he met Rockefeller, and he saw the young man's ingenuity, but he had no intention of digging into the wall, because he saw in Rockefeller's diligence that he was not satisfied with the status quo. "This man doesn't work as a hired hand for a long time." This is Warren? Draenau's conclusion. At that time, he noticed that Rockefeller had such a small book, and he was deeply impressed by the serious spirit embodied in this small book. Now, seeing that Rockefeller took out a small notebook again, well, in fact, Rockefeller was not careless, and his own shoulder blocked most of the angles. Just, Warren? Draenor was so tall that he could still see Rockefeller's book. Warren? Draenor looked at it curiously. The conscience of heaven and earth, he really didn't mean to see other people's business secrets, because Warren? Draenor really didn't think that much could be said to his business. If I had known that the content was so important, I would have taken a few more looks in advance.

But that's enough for a few glances, on this page you see, Warren? Delano saw wheat and corn acreage, projected yields, and prices compared to the previous two years in some parts of the Chicago area. Warren? Draenor knew that there had been a big increase in the acreage and expected production in these areas, but he had never seriously studied how big that growth was. Now I glanced at the number I saw in Rockefeller's little notebook, and I was almost startled by the number.

As long as the supply of any commodity exceeds the demand, its price will inevitably fall. Such a simple truth, Warren? Draenor is naturally clear. Just before that, the rising prices made Warren? Draenor unconsciously ignores the growth of supply. Warren, though? Draenor didn't know what was going on in other regions, so he wasn't sure what the price would do in the future.

"It would be nice to know what is going on in other regions, preferably in Europe." Warren? Draenor thought like this, "Or, just talk to them, spend some money, and buy the news directly from them." ”

Warren? Draenor was a man of great action, and since he had such an idea, he offered them a price directly to Rockefeller.

"I just saw that your little book has a comparison table of the planting area, production and price of the nearby area in recent years." Warren? Delano said bluntly to Rockefeller, "This information is important to me, so I want to be able to buy it from you at a reasonable price." You know, now that I've noticed the problem, even if you don't sell it to me, I'll be able to find out the numbers by my own means. However, it comes at a cost, so I'd like to be able to sell this information directly from you, so it's more convenient. ”

Rockefeller was taken aback and looked up at Warren? Draenor, there was no look of embarrassment on the big brown bear's loyal-looking face.

"My eyes are very good, much better than the vast majority of people." Warren? Draenor seemed a little smug, "Well, John, you don't have to be careful enough to learn this lesson." ”

Rockefeller and Scrooge glanced at each other, Warren? Draenor was surprised to see this. Scrooge noticed that Warren? Draenor was five or six meters away from them, and Rockefeller wrote too small to save paper, and the brown bear's eyesight was astonishing.

Now that his intentions have been revealed, there is really little point in continuing to keep it secret. Scrooge believes, Warren? Draenor was able to gather this information on his own. Maybe it would be better to just pull the shameless brown bear over and do it together. At the same time, Scrooge felt that Warren? Judging from Delaenau's experience, he must have been very interested in shorting this kind of situation, which seems to be risky and exciting. And this guy is also very rich, and he is very experienced in speculative business, so if he is brought in, the profit can be even more.

"Warren? Mr. Delano is very interesting about your suggestion, but in addition to these numbers, we can also sell you some analysis of these numbers, which may be worth more money. I think we can find a place to talk about it......" Finally, Scrooge said.

So Warren? Draenor led them to a tavern, found a private room, and began negotiations. In the beginning, Warren? Draenor only planned to pay a hundred dollars to buy the small book in Rockefeller's hand. After seeing Scrooge's analysis of the information contained in the pages he saw, he admitted that Scrooge's analysis of the information was more valuable. Moreover, Scrooge's faintly revealed intentions attracted his attention.

"Otherwise, let's stop talking about money, let's just work together! We can make more money! "Warren? Draenor said.

"We've done a lot of preparation before that, and your partnership with us means that you can share that, and that's certainly good for you. But for us, we can get hundreds of dollars for selling you that information directly, and we may not end up with that much in the end. So why are we partnering with you? Scrooge asked.

"I'm going to invest between $50,000 and $100,000 in food, and once I make a profit, I can give you a share of my income." Warren? Draenor threw out his terms.