Chapter 23 Deliberation
There was silence in the room for a long time, and after arranging for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Intelligence Bureau to sort out the relevant materials and notify all the Standing Committee members to come to the meeting to discuss it, the three of them dispersed. That night, in the back house of the Silver Palace, a meeting to discuss the British proposal for an alliance began.
In the afternoon, after he went back to sort out the relevant information, he focused on two pieces of information, one is that the Japanese Navy began to change the original 86 plan and formulate the 88 plan; Second, according to the news transmitted by Germany, Britain asked Japan to send troops to Europe, but the Japanese refused, and they only agreed to send a naval cruiser to the Mediterranean to help Britain clean up German and Austrian submarines.
Zhang Shi only mentioned Britain and Japan, but Yang Rui asked: "How do the British view the Russian issue, and how do they judge the direction of the Russian political situation?" And the United States, is his army mobilization fast? What about the British, when did they think the Americans would rush to France to fight in the trenches? ”
"The British MI6 has always been very concerned about the situation in Russia, especially after the political turmoil in Russia last month, the United Kingdom has significantly strengthened its intelligence collection work on Russia, and the electronic messages in the Russian embassy have been continuous. Although the domestic newspapers were very appreciative of Russia's continued war, many articles questioned Russia's ability to continue fighting; This is public opinion, and the official has always been worried that Russia will eventually withdraw from the war, so although the offensive on the Western Front is ineffective, the British and French forces will continue to fight on the offensive to reduce the pressure on Russia on the Eastern Front. Zhang Shidao.
On the American side, the U.S. Army numbered less than 200,000 before the declaration of war, and there was intelligence that General Pershing, the plenipotentiary commander of the U.S. Army, arrived in France for an inspection and believed that at least one million troops would be needed to defeat Germany. At the same time, he and his entourage were shocked by the severity of the war in Europe, believing that the U.S. Army, even if it was on active duty, could not apply to the war in Europe. So General Pershing developed a very lengthy training program, which most likely lasted more than half a year. And that's not counting the four months of recruit training in the United States.
The training was lengthy, and landing on the European continent required crossing the Atlantic. In order to prevent the landing of the US Army, the German submarine force had concentrated its forces on the main shipping route to France, a strategy that relied on the Belgian ports it had captured and was sufficient to threaten the US Army to land on the French mainland. At the end of last month, the flotilla of the 1st Division of the U.S. Army, the first U.S. unit to participate in the war, was attacked by German submarines. He was ambushed by a submarine, a move that killed 1,300 American troops. However, this news was tightly sealed by the Allied powers, and the American soldiers who arrived in France also issued a gag order to strictly prohibit the spread of the news.
From the perspective of Britain and France, even if the Allied high-speed cruise ships were concentrated for transporting the U.S. Army, and the number of high-speed cruise ships was not considered, it would still be difficult for the U.S. Army to enter the battle without more than nine months. ”
After Zhang Shi answered Yang Rui's question, he didn't ask again. The others were also pondering, so they withdrew from the study and waited outside. After he left, Xu Huafeng was the first to speak. He glanced at Yang Rui and Xie Zhangtai, and said, "Actually, this is really going to fight?" It's really hit. So how will the German side explain? The country's industrialization has basically locked Germany, and we need German technology, workers, and equipment. After several years of construction. Our industry is basically of German origin, if the Germans hate us. After the war, they were not willing to help us with industrial construction, then things would be difficult!
This is still far away, and if we go to war against Germany, what will happen to the thousands of skilled workers in Germany? All withdrawn? And those international students and researchers, this is more than 10,000 people, what should these people do? What about those scientific research projects that are being developed, should they be suspended? Can I continue after I have been suspended?
I think that Britain and France are not at ease when they drag us to Europe and then go to war. Their people are dying, and their money is running out. If the United States and we do not go, and Russia really withdraws from the war as expected, then it is possible to decide who will lose and who will win this war. Isn't it good to remain neutral all the time and let the foreigners fight to the death by themselves? ”
After Xu Huafeng finished speaking, it was Qiu Jin, and she said: "Japan, as an ally of Britain, does not send a single soldier to Europe, so why should we be wronged and let the revival army go to Europe to die." It has been said in newspapers and briefings that the war in Europe is extremely tragic, and it is very common for tens of thousands of people to be killed and wounded a day. Then there is military spending, once we go to Europe to participate in the war, billions of military spending is inevitable, but we plan to start a war with New Russia in the northwest, and after these two wars, how much money can be left in the past few years? ”
When Yang Rui announced the meeting, he only said that he would discuss the issue of joining the Entente camp and going to Europe to participate in the war. Zhang Shi only introduced the background of the incident, and he did not say the specific details, Xu Huafeng and Qiu Jin expressed their objections. Xu Huafeng and Qiu Jin's questions Yang Rui didn't answer, he just asked the other three, "What do you guys think?" Let's all say it, so we can talk about it. ”
"If countries can meet our demand for the abolition of unequal treaties, I have no problem sending troops to Europe to fight." Cai Yuanpei said.
After he finished speaking, Du Yaquan also said: "I also agree with the people's point of view, but if we really send troops, it will not be tens of thousands, it must be hundreds of thousands and millions, it is not enough to abolish the unequal treaties, Britain and France and other countries must also promise to give us some other benefits, otherwise, this matter is really a loss." ”
Du Yaquan is worthy of being the Minister of Commerce, and his abacus is extremely shrewd, Yang Rui smiled and asked Xu Guantian again, "You can also tell me your opinion, don't be restrained." ”
The election of Xu Guantian to the Standing Committee was the resolution of the previous Standing Committee, in fact, what Yang Rui wanted most was that Cai Yuanpei would withdraw, but it was Yu Huizu who opened his mouth to withdraw at that time. Although he had been mentally prepared, Xu Guantian was still worried that he could join the Standing Committee, he was not an early member of the Revival Association, and he did not participate in the fight against the country, so it was completely Yang Rui who was able to get to this position. And since he himself is the president of the National General Peasant Association, he is seeking his own government in his position, and he should have considered the interests of the peasant association. On the one hand, Yang Rui's appreciation, and on the other hand, his own work, so he is not easy to talk about many discussions in the Standing Committee.
This time, I saw Yang Rui ask. He had no choice but to say: "What is the international situation, we still have to listen to Mr. Chong'an's introduction." I think whether or not to participate in the war depends on the pros and cons. What are the pros and cons, and what are the disadvantages. I don't know any of that yet. ”
Xu Guantian's attitude of listening first and then breaking made Yang Rui nod, Xu Huafeng opposed joining the war because in the future, the country's industrial construction, scientific and technological research and development needed Germany's help, and industry and science and technology were the top priorities of the whole country. Even if China had gained great benefits from entering the war, it would be detrimental to the country's long-term development to complain about Germany.
And Qiu Jin's opposition may have more considerations of national integrity. Britain and France were the first countries to invade China, and there was no need for China to shed blood and sacrifice for them. As for the abolition of those unequal treaties, if England and France lost the war, they could negotiate directly with them; If Britain and France win. If the negotiations do not succeed, the treaty will be abolished now, and the treaty signed by China in the first place will be abolished under what situation.
Among the opponents, Cai Yuanpei's reason was to participate in the war in exchange for the abolition of the treaty, while Du Yaquan was to participate in the war not only to exchange for the abolition of the treaty, but also to give other additional benefits from Britain and France, so that the deal was fair.
Opponents and supporters have their own reasons, and after everyone finished speaking, Yang Rui glanced at Xie Zhangtai. Then he began to speak: "Actually, before we talk about whether to go to war or not, we need to discuss another question, what is it? It is that all the foreigners have withdrawn, and China has returned to the way it was before the Opium War. With self-reliance and self-development, can our country be built well? ”
Yang Rui finished asking. After a pause, he said: "Actually, the answer to this question is very positive, there is no technology, equipment, and talents from Europe and the United States. We build behind closed doors for a hundred years, and it is not as good as them for ten years. The West entered the industrialized society earlier than us, and all technology was born in the West and not in the East. We must rely on their scientific and technological accumulation to achieve China's industrialization, because without industrialization, we still can't stand up to the backbone. Therefore, from this point of view, it is necessary and inevitable to make good friends with Europe and the United States and integrate into the general cycle of the world economy.
Although when Europe and the United States are in a recession, or when certain countries are friendly to China, we can obtain Western equipment, technology, and talents without being in this system, but this is only a loophole, and one day after all, all countries will unite and impose a blockade on us, and if we do not join this system, we will fall behind more and more. Even if we can do another set, but this is almost equivalent to starting from scratch and building everything ourselves, which is very cost-effective, although there are many Chinese, but the economic capacity, market size, is not as good as several states in the United States.
As those sour Confucians think, it is impossible to reproduce the Celestial Empire, and we only want to occupy a better position in the world economic system. For example, if the world is a company, then our purpose is not to open another company to compete with the original company, but to integrate into this company, and start from the second child, and work your way up to the supervisor, manager, and general manager. This process will not go smoothly, and there will even be some wars, but this is just an intrigue between the second and the second, between the manager and the manager, not a struggle between the original company and the original company.
We look at Japan to know, at the beginning he was inferior to the Manchu Qing Dynasty, although he frequently bought warships from Britain before the First Sino-Japanese War, and the Manchu Qing purchased warships from Germany, but he was still not recognized by the British, because at that time Japan and China were incomparable, the general manager of this company Britain did not take Japan seriously at all, only until they won the First Sino-Japanese War, the general manager noticed this previously neglected Xiao Er.
The signing of the Japan-Britain alliance is equivalent to saying that if Japan wins the war, then he is the manager of Northeast Asia, and in addition to Northeast Asia, other regions of this company, such as Nanyang, Australia, Canada, India, the Middle East, and many, many places, he can get involved; As for China under the rule of the Manchu Qing Dynasty, the supervisor instantly became Xiao Er, the Germans occupied Qingdao, the French occupied Guangzhou, and even Italy had to lease Sanduao.
There are a lot of Chinese who stayed in Japan after the afternoon, didn't Xuan Qing go to Japan to study at that time? Yang Rui said this, glanced at Qiu Jin, who was listening attentively, with a smile on the corner of his mouth, "What is the purpose of these people going to Japan, isn't it just to learn from Japan and strengthen China." There is nothing wrong with this path, but the strength of Japan is not determined by the Japanese themselves, but by the owner of this company, the British. Russia, an unruly regional manager, wanted to expand his business. So East Asia had to appoint a new manager to stop Russia from moving south, and Japan was in that role. And before, this character was Manchu.
If the First Sino-Japanese Dynasty is undefeated. Then our revolution cannot succeed; If the Manchus had joined the Entente in this European war, the revolution would still have been difficult to succeed. Ten years ago, Germany was close to China, wooed the United States, and wanted to form an alliance between Germany and China and the United States, but Cixi opposed it at that time, thinking that if it wanted to form an alliance, it should form an alliance with Britain, and what would an alliance with Germany be?
China is a big country. But his position and power in this company determine China's national economy and people's livelihood. The success of our revolution is to take advantage of the contradictions between the various managers in the company, from not a small two to a small two. Now this little second is very strong, defeated Japan, and drove out Russia, and his identity is basically the supervisor. However, the status is still not recognized by the general manager and other regional managers.
Now the general manager has been beaten badly by the Germans, and they want us to join the war to save the driver, and the advantage is to promote us to the position of supervisor, so that we can be promoted from supervisor to regional manager. Scope of Jurisdiction. In addition to Northeast Asia, South Seas and Central Asia can also be touched by the rest of the world. As long as we don't overdo it, we can also get a piece of the pie. ”
The lengthy opening remarks are finished. While everyone was still pondering, Yang Rui said again. "The reason for the objection just put forward by Mr. Hua Feng is that if Germany is defeated, it will immediately become a junior second, and it is the most miserable junior second. You must know that the company pays attention to identity, how can a second-class junior be against the manager? Moreover, what the Germans did to us, the Germans themselves knew very well that our participation in the war was not decisive in the outcome of the war, but the entry of the Americans into the war was decisive. Therefore, as long as we play more friendship cards and give more sympathy after the war, it is still good to say that the Germans will not be grateful to us, but at least they will not hate it to the bone.
In addition, those technicians, international students, and some scientific research projects, we can withdraw them before the war, but they can't be withdrawn, and they are only prisoners of war, at most they are starving, and their lives are generally worry-free. We have no choice but to curry favor with Germany and offend the victorious countries, Britain, the United States, France, and Italy, which will be even more detrimental to our future scientific research. We have institutes in Germany, in the United States, in the United Kingdom, and in the United States, and the American institutes are not much smaller than in Germany. Therefore, we have to be on the side of the winners, and watching neutrality will only prevent us from being promoted and ultimately lose all the additional benefits.
Take industry, for example, the products of those factories that the state invests in, tractors, electric motors, trucks, freezers, air conditioners, these products are basically exported. In our current capacity, it is impossible to enter the international market after the war, but if we can become the manager of the East Asia region, it will be different, not to mention that when we reconvene after the war to discuss the international sphere of influence and the principles of trade, we can put forward our opinions, and we can clearly demand that our commercial interests be protected; With our economic jurisdiction over East Asia, other countries should give us a fairer treatment.
This result is the best for us, our high-tech industry must rely on the external European and American markets to support, as long as we do not eat all the dry and often pay attention to proportion, European and American countries will still allow our products to enter their domestic markets. This kind of treatment cannot be obtained by simply going to war with them to abolish unequal treaties. Once there is a war with Europe and the United States, those factories that have lost market support will soon go out of business.
Externally, we say that the path of industrialization is to revitalize agriculture and use agriculture to drive industry, which is indeed our choice, but in fact, we are walking on two legs. Our other way is to rely on the high-end market in Europe and the United States to export high-tech products to enhance the country's industrial strength, both of which are very important and indispensable; Moreover, the latter path is dangerous because it relies on the European and American markets, which requires good diplomatic relations. And when will these two roads be safe? This will be the time when China's industrialization will be truly achieved when the people of our country have solved the problem of food and clothing, and when they have surplus money in their pockets after they become wealthy, and can buy tractors, three-wheeled cars, radios, and electric fans.
The road to industrialization is very difficult, and domestic agricultural construction is not a problem, but the international situation is unpredictable, and several economic crises will affect even high-tech industries, but even so, the road of export cannot be broken, and we must try our best to persevere. Only in this way can we keep up with the development level of Europe and the United States in science and technology without falling behind. ”
Yang Rui's words were completely over here, and when he picked up the teacup and drank water, Xu Guantian raised his hand and said, "I support the proposal to send troops to Europe to participate in the war." ”
After Xu Guantian finished speaking, Qiu Jin also said, "I also support it." ”
"I also withdraw my objections." Xu Huafeng said with a smile, "But if the Germans scold me in the future, then I will push it all on Jingcheng." ”
After he finished speaking, everyone laughed, and the original solemn atmosphere in the study suddenly relaxed a lot. Du Yaquan smiled and said, "I wonder why Britain handed over Nanyang to us?" ”
"Not to us." Xie Jintai, who had not spoken, said: "The British mean to form an alliance with us, which is tantamount to opening up the commercial interests of Nanyang to us, as long as we do not go too far and do not threaten their vested interests, then they will not interfere too much in our behavior." Then there is the Central Asian region, although the British demand that the boundary of the sphere of influence of the two countries be the Syr Darya River, but I think if we insist, we can still demarcate the previous Russian-Afghan border, and in the end it is nothing more than the cotton that we cannot monopolize in Central Asia. Then there is Persia, we can take over part of the interests of Russia before, that is, the northeast of Persia, the British only care about the provinces in the south that have oil fields, and he doesn't care about the north.
It can be said that our sphere of influence can basically cover all parts of Asia except India, Afghanistan, the Persian Gulf, and the Ottomans. Although these places are poor, they are only for Europe and the United States, and for us, Nanyang is to protect the interests of overseas Chinese; Central Asia and Persia, from a successful point of view, focused on securing access and obtaining mineral resources along the way. The most important of these is to obtain an equal status with the countries of Europe and the United States, which is extremely beneficial for our industrial exports.
We are different from Japan, our products, in the words of the United States, are high-tech products, these products enter the European and American markets, although the price is expensive, but there are few competitors, which is only European and American countries can consume. Being able to enter the European and American markets on a relatively equal footing is of great benefit to the country's industrial development. ”
What are the benefits, as the Minister of Commerce, Du Yaquan knows that China's industrialization, in Du Yaquan's view, is a plan to repair the plank road in the open and Chen Cang in the dark, why should this happen? Yang Rui's answer was so as not to be remembered. By participating in the European war to obtain a broader market for high-tech products, Du Yaquan agrees, but is the foreigner credible?
This suspicion turned around in Du Yaquan's heart several times, and finally asked, he said: "Actually, what if the foreigners don't fulfill what they promised before?" Is there any guarantee for this? ”
Everyone's worries are actually the same, Yang Rui said with a smile when he heard this, "Treaties will be signed before entering the war, at least the abolition of those unequal treaties is certain, except for Hong Kong." As for the sphere of influence, we have troops in Central Asia and Persia, and in addition to the same interests as Britain, they are all rejecting Russia, so they will not default on this side. Nanyang maybe, just like the Manchu Qing Dynasty signed a treaty and did not implement it in the past, Britain, France and the Netherlands will definitely find an excuse to shirk after the war, which is inevitable, but no matter how to shirk, the interests of overseas Chinese in Nanyang can be ensured, and this is enough, after all, the commercial interests of overseas Chinese are the commercial interests of the country.
The most important point: the non-discriminatory acquisition of raw materials and the non-discriminatory sale of products around the world. The former, except for a few strategic substances, I don't think it is difficult to obtain, but it is very difficult to own mines, unless it is in a non-colonial country; The latter, as long as our product market share is too large and poses a sufficient threat to European and American products, it is bound to be squeezed out openly and covertly, which is unavoidable. However, our positioning is to make products that others do not have, or we only want to take a small share of the European and American markets, and do not plan to occupy too many markets. I think in this case, the likelihood of exclusion becomes very small.
Foreigners will turn their faces and deny others, but before they turn their faces, I believe that they have the habit of abiding by the treaty, although they are constantly trying to find ways to exploit loopholes. The question now is that if we really enter the war to replace Japan as the hegemon in East Asia, what will be really difficult is how to deal with Japan's relations. In addition to hoping that we will enter the war to solve the predicament in Europe, I think there is also an attempt to drive a wedge between China and Japan, so I will discuss this matter with you. (To be continued......)