The eyes of the world were focused on Europe, and no one, except for the Japanese, paid attention to a summer military exercise in the Far East. In terms of the scale of the exercise, it was not small, with a total of 27 infantry regiments, 10 artillery regiments, and four brigade-affiliated artillery battalions participating in the exercise, as well as an unknown number of flying units, with a total strength of more than 180,000!

The army always has to exercise, and perhaps it is not worth the fuss.

After the Kaiser's blank check was issued, Austria-Hungary Foreign Minister Bechtold convened an Austro-Hungarian cabinet meeting on 7 July to discuss how to punish the Serbs and stop the Serbian conspiracy. With the exception of Hungarian Prime Minister Tiza, all cabinet members were in favour of an "excessive" measure, believing that "reasonable" diplomatic means might be satisfied by Serbia, but worthless and would "demonstrate the weakness of Austria-Hungary." Satie warned that if you do so, you will face the terrible catastrophe of the Great War in Europe. But no one heeded his warnings.

The conference actually decided on the use of force against Serbia. But a new question arises, what to do with the defeated Serbia after the invasion of Serbia by the Austro-Hungarian army? Completely annexation will not work, or Satie is pouring cold water, but this time everyone accepts his opinion, because Russia will never allow his Slavic brothers to be annexed. Therefore, the reasonable scenario is to cut its territory.

After this cabinet meeting, Austria-Hungary entered a period of silent waiting. For the sake of secrecy, Austria-Hungary did not even prepare for war. This made the de facto commander of the Austro-Hungarian army, Field Marshal and Chief of the General Staff Vlatz. Conrad was stunned and puzzled. It was not until the 19th that Austria-Hungary officially came up with a 10-point demand for Serbia. Austria-Hungary carefully chose the timing of the delivery of the note. They had to wait for the French president to leave Petersburg before reading it to Serbia, in order to avoid Franco-Russian agreement on action.

This harsh note of an ultimatum (Austria-Hungary requested a reply by 6 p.m. on Saturday, 25 July) was not rejected immediately. The Serbian Foreign Minister needs to report to the Prime Minister. Except for Russia, no one really paid attention to this. Britain is reeling from the crisis of violence triggered by the Irish Home Rule Act and has no energy to focus on the Balkans. British Foreign Secretary Edward. Gray only built yì deadlines should be extended.

Only Russia was outraged. They believed that Germany and Austria were conspiring to drive Russia out of the Balkans. Russian Foreign Minister Sage. Sasonov said to the Austrian ambassador to Russia, "Do you know what you're doing? You are burning Europe! ”

The background to this is a feeling of crisis within Russia. The tsar's cronies told him that the Russian people could accept the defeat of Outer Mongolia, but they would not allow the betrayal of their Yugoslav brothers again! Because the blood culture of the latter is much closer than that of the Mongols! If strong measures are not taken, Russia will completely lose the Balkans, Russia will be humiliated and lose respect in Europe. It will trigger an internal crisis that is even more severe than in 1905!

July 24th. Sasonov asked the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Army to start mobilization for the war. The Russians judged that if Russia showed enough toughness, Austria would retreat. But this move was clearly wrong, in the hands of the Russians. A diplomatic crisis turned into a global war.

July 25 is an important day. Serbia submitted its reply on time. They accepted half of the 10-point request. The Austro-Hungarian ambassador to Serbia, Baron Gisai, declared Serbia's reply unacceptable in accordance with the procedure established in advance, and immediately severed diplomatic relations with Serbia. The baron boarded the train back half an hour later, showing that his bags were already ready. A qiē is predetermined.

Immediately, Serbia and Austria-Hungary declared mobilization for war. Russia declared a "period of preparation for war", not yet a formal mobilization, officers on leave were recalled, and the troops trained in the summer returned to the barracks. The Kazan Military District, the Kiev Military District, the Moscow Military District and the Odessa Military District were put on alert. And the military maneuvering of the Warsaw, Vilna and St. Petersburg military districts, which directly threatened Germany and were of a particularly dangerous significance, began.

"War mobilization" is an extremely important word, although it does not mean war. But he expressed a state that was quite close to war. Different countries have different definitions of mobilization for war, and this difference sows the seeds of conflict. In the case of Russia, because of its extremely large territory, poor transportation, and inefficient state administration, the mobilization time was much longer, which could not be compared with that of Germany, which had a well-organized and good railway network.

The crisis escalated.

On the 26th, British Foreign Secretary Grey felt the crisis. He immediately approached the German ambassador to Britain, Karl Brown. Rinknawski communicated, and Gray immediately convened an international conference with the participation of Great Britain, France, Germany, and Italy to resolve the Balkan crisis. Linkenauski was well aware of Britain's position, and knew that if war broke out on European soil, Britain would stand in opposition to Germany. So, after Gray's suggestion, Rinkenauski desperately wanted to seize this opportunity, and he said in a telegram to Berlin, "Please note the importance of Gray's construction. I see this as the only chance to avoid a world war. ”

It was not Serbia and Austria, or even Britain, that decided the situation in Europe, but Germany, France, and Russia. French President François Puhn is sailing at sea and cannot participate in the resolution of the European crisis, in fact, Germany and Russia are left. If Germany and Russia had exercised restraint, Austria and Serbia would not have fought, and even the conflict would have been localized, as had been the case with the Balkan crises that had erupted in succession two years earlier, and had been resolved peacefully. But this time it got out of control, and Russia's unannounced military mobilization was detected by Germany, and a German embassy attaché in Petersburg questioned the Russian side, but the Russian side replied with lies. As more evidence of the build-up of Russian troops came into hand, Berlin began to feel nervous.

On the afternoon of July 28, the Chinese military delegation arrived in Berlin. They did not feel that Berlin had been infected with the atmosphere of war, and that the bustling of pedestrians in the streets showed that peace was in place. Arriving ashore in Bremen, the accompanying German personnel had already informed their Chinese counterparts about the latest situation, and the members of the Chinese military delegation were taken aback. In particular, they were surprised by the news that Russia had secretly mobilized. The Wehrmacht has been conducting small and medium-sized exercises for the past two years, and they are fully aware of what mobilization means. Lieutenant Colonel Madwitz, who accompanied the Chinese counterpart back to China, was at first overjoyed when he heard the news that Russia had been mobilized, and then frowned. Cheng Jianguo, who was paying attention to him, did not know what to do.

As soon as they arrived at the Linden Street station, the delegation received a report from Major Gao Ming, a Chinese military observer in Germany, who had been waiting there for a long time, and was very excited to see the "relatives" from the motherland, but he did not bother to greet them, and threw a bombshell news to the generals: Austria-Hungary had officially declared war on Serbia!

"Germany will not stay out of the way this time!" Major Gao affirmed that he felt a trace of nervousness in front of a number of generals with three, two, and one gold stars hanging from them. But he still expressed his opinion firmly.

Gao Ming's implication was that the delegation's arrival was too unfortunate. The Germans would soon enter the war. This is a war on a world scale and not a simple border conflict, and the German side will have no interest in receiving delegations.

Clever judgments are not correct. That night, the German side came forward to receive the Chinese delegation at a very high level. Feng. Falkingham actually attended the welcome banquet. The welcome banquet was attended by several high-ranking officers of the German General Staff. The head of the delegation, Lieutenant General Feng Guozhang, was flattered. The good-looking General Falkingham was extremely talkative. He first praised the beauty of the military uniforms of his Chinese counterparts, believing that they were the most beautiful military uniforms he had ever seen, and that the German army should learn from his Chinese counterparts in this regard. The meaning of Falkingham's words was heard by the members of the Chinese military delegation. What he meant was that the German army completely overwhelmed the Chinese army except for military uniforms. As a result, several members had no anger written on their faces. But Feng Guozhang was trained by German instructors, and he admired the German Army's set of things very much, and did not feel that Falkingham was rude.

However, Fakingham's words were much more comfortable for the Chinese, who were familiar with the not-so-small military clash between the Chinese National Defense Forces and the Russian army in Tangnu Ulianghai four years ago, and praised the Chinese for their bravery and good fighting, "But you should not back down." That's often the way things are, taking a step back and losing all the work. In response to Lieutenant General Feng Guozhang's tactful expression of China's concern about the situation in Europe, Falkingham smiled and said, "Germany is not afraid of war, and any enemy will be defeated - we are ready." But if war does break out in Europe, will your country be on the side of Germany? Many German officers, especially those who have been to your country, have a great affection for your country and express deep admiration for your army. There is no conflict of interest between Germany and the Republic of China, and some of the unpleasantness that has occurred in the past can be completely resolved. But Germany and China have a common enemy, and that is Russia! And maybe Japan. Now Tsarist Russia still occupies a large part of your country's territory, including the Tangnu-Ulianghai. I am confident that the great leader of your country, General Long Qian, who single-handedly founded your national defense forces, will not sit idly by and watch the territory of your country be occupied by Russia. If, I say, a full-scale war breaks out in Europe because of Austria and Serbia, and a duel between Germany and Russia is unavoidable, in this duel that will determine the situation of the world, if your country can fully contain Russia in the Far East, the German Reich will be grateful, and after we win this duel, you will not only regain what you have lost, but also gain more. ”

The Chinese soldiers present, including Feng Guozhang, were taken aback. Falkingham was the German Minister of War and was highly respected by the Kaiser. Falkingham's opinion can well be regarded as a German attitude. The eyes of the Chinese soldiers were all on Lieutenant General Feng Guozhang.

"Honorable Minister, I beg your pardon that I have not been authorized by the President to govern foreign affairs. Therefore, I will truthfully report to the President of our country regarding the advice of His Excellency the Minister. But personally, I am willing to fight with the great German Empire. This is also the attitude of many generals of the Wehrmacht. ”

You Huisheng, deputy head of the delegation, breathed a sigh of relief. Feng Guozhang's answer was very decent, without the slightest overstep.

"Haha, thank you very much for General Feng's frankness. In this case, we have made adequate arrangements for your visit. If possible, the Great Emperor will see you again. ”

In the few days when the situation in Europe was rapidly sliding towards war, the Chinese military delegation split up according to the arrangement of the German side. In charge of contacting Cheng Jianguo was a colonel named Alsleben of the German General Staff, who was also engaged in aviation. Cheng Jianguo will hand over some materials to the German side and observe the German air force exercises on the spot. As Chief of Staff of the Wehrmacht Aviation Command. Cheng Jianguo did not know much about the construction of the German air force, and he concluded from the mouth of the German commander in Qingdao that the condition of the German air force was inferior to that of China. The most important of these materials is the manufacture and use of aerial bombs, which was the request of the German side after the Laizhou exercise, and the Ministry of Defense has fully approved it. Before leaving, experts from the Ordnance Administration said that the Germans could produce samples in a week after seeing the drawings.

On July 30, the situation finally woke up to the Europeans. They realized the possibility of war. People are in a hurry to go to the bank to withdraw money. Austria, Germany, and Russia began to withdraw foreign exchange reserves from foreign banks. Investors began to panic sell their shares, and the stock markets in Berlin and Brussels were forced to close.

That evening, Tsar Nicholas II sent a stupid telegram to Berlin, which he meant to show that Russia had no hostility towards Germany. But his telegram made Germany even more alarmed. Because he said. "All military readiness measures were decided five days ago. Its purpose was to prepare Austria for war mobilization. "Wilhelm II came to a conclusion after reading the telegram." Russia is already a week ahead of Germany in war mobilization, which means that I must mobilize for war immediately. ”

On this day, Russian Foreign Minister Sasonov received bad news from the military. The military said that it was simply impossible to carry out the military plan of the "period of preparation for war". This "partial mobilization order", which was only aimed at Austria, plunged the Russian army into great confusion, either to stop or to mobilize for war. Sasonov readily understood the doubts of the military, and he called Tsar Nicholas II to explain the reasons of the military and ask the tsar to approve the implementation of the general mobilization. But Nicholas II categorically refused. Sasonov fought for a long time, and finally agreed to meet at 3 p.m.

Sasonov's meeting with the Tsar was long, and the Tsar appeared anxious, which is an unavoidable anxiety for any decision-maker with decision-making power in the face of heavy dà issues, especially at such a moment when the fate of the country is even decided. Sasonov tried desperately to convince the Tsar, and even cited the example of the Tangnu-Uliang crisis four years ago, that mobilization would not necessarily lead to war, and if Russia had mobilized to coerce China at that time, perhaps it would not have been the Tangnu-Ulianghai that they had withdrawn from, and I am afraid that even Outer Mongolia would not dare to garrison troops. But at that time, the tsar satisfied the Chinese to retreat on their own initiative, thus ending a border crisis, which was considered a bad opening, and the Austrians would not have thought of the conflict in the Far East?

The tsar restlessly shouted to Sasonov, "Germany is not China!" Think about the responsibility you want me to bear! Think about it, you want me to send thousands of people to die! But Sasonov insisted that Russia's general mobilization would not necessarily lead to war, that the key factor was in Germany, and that we could use diplomatic channels to convince the Germans that Russia's general mobilization was not directed against Germany!

Nicholas II, who had a weak character, finally agreed to Sasonov's request. They ignored the fears that the Russian general mobilization had brought to Germany, and that the German generals would inevitably demand a response from the government in response to the crisis. Nicholas II and Sasonov ignored two key issues, the first being that they did not expect Germany to mobilize so quickly, and the second being that once Germany mobilized, it simply could not stop and could not make "flexible" adjustments.

In fact, Germany was the only country on the European continent that had not made military preparations before Russia's general mobilization.

Forty-eight hours after Austria declared war on Serbia, Russia decided to carry out a general mobilization for war. Russia's decision has led to an increase of 900,000 active troops and a call up of 4 million reservists. Such a huge number is enough to frighten all the countries of the planet, and Germany, which is next to Russia, will naturally not hesitate any longer.

In view of the information already available, Moltke, the chief of the German General Staff, and Falkingham, the secretary of war, went to the chancellor's office at 9 o'clock that night to meet with Prime Minister Batemann and inform him that Germany must mobilize: Churchill, the British Admiralty, had ordered the British Grand Fleet to occupy a favorable position in the North Sea, and the French had begun to take action and prepare to assume the obligation of alliance with Russia. And Russia is acting even more blatantly, Germany is in a state of extreme insecurity, and must not wait any longer!

Batemann understood what it meant for Germany to enter a state of general mobilization, but he was unwilling to leave his homeland in a state of insecurity, so he told the two visiting men that the final decision would be made tomorrow, by noon on July 31.

This is humanity's last hope for peace before entering an unprecedentedly tragic world war. In the last telegraphic exchange between the Kaiser and the Tsar, who had been excellent personal cousins but now controlled the two opposing states, Wilhelm II demanded that Nicholas II cease mobilization for the war, or Germany would be forced to mobilize after 12 hours. Nicholas II made it clear to Germany that the mobilization in Russia could not be stopped, technically. But if Vienna does not fire on Serbia, his army will be absolutely under control and will not clash with any country, including Germany.

Peace was completely shattered with the slightly reckless mobilization of Russia. At noon on July 31, Germany issued an ultimatum to France and Russia, which became known as the double ultimatum. The ultimatum to Russia demanded that "if Russia does not cease all military measures against Austria-Hungary, Germany will mobilize for war in 12 hours." The ultimatum to France demanded that France declare neutrality. The deadline is the afternoon of the next day (August 1).

Germany's double ultimatum can be seen as a last effort to avert war in a desperate situation, and more to provide a pretext for the use of force on the Western Front after failed diplomatic efforts. Because the German General Staff already had a complete war plan against France and Russia, that is, the famous Schlieffen plan. Germany will adopt a strategy of attacking in the west and defending in the east, and before Russia has officially attacked Germany (the Germans know the condition and efficiency of the Russians' roads, and estimate that Russia will not be able to complete the build-up of troops in a month), defeat the old enemy France with a decisive strategic assault, and then turn around and take over the vast territory of Russia. So, having been "forced" into a state of war, the Germans had to provoke France in order to find a pretext for war against France. Thus, after the double ultimatum, the Germans made an additional demand to the French through diplomatic channels, which was difficult for them to accept, that a neutral France should surrender the large military fortresses of Verdun and Tühr after the end of the war between Germany and Russia. The Germans were well aware that the French, who hated Germany because of the Franco-Prussian War, would not accept such a demand at all.

Due to Germany's awkward geographical location, speed will be the key to victory. It cannot wait, and waiting means perishing. Either don't do it or do it early. It must deal with the enemy to the west before Russia goes on the offensive. Therefore, the waste of time on the diplomatic front was deeply feared by the German generals. If France and Russia were all ready, Germany would face the dilemma of fighting on two fronts, and it would not be necessary to have a high level of military literacy and it would be clear that Germany, with an area of less than 500,000 square kilometers, would not be able to fight a protracted war, and it would have to fight a quick victory, defeating one enemy first, and then dealing with another. The first target of attack was to choose France, not Russia, which had a very wide strategic depth.

Germany's "double ultimatum" was naturally rejected. On August 1, 15 minutes after France entered the war mobilization, the situation in Europe was finally overwhelmed by a stupid assassination, and the wealth accumulated over decades, an entire generation, and even world leadership, would be wiped out in the flames of unprecedented tragedy. (To be continued......)