In late August, Shibuya Kawa Nakasa, a staff officer of the Japanese General Staff Headquarters who came to China in the capacity of a military attache stationed in China and was ordered to conduct a reconnaissance trip, was rejected by the Chinese side on the pretext that his safety could not be guaranteed.

As a matter of fact, since the outbreak of the Battle of Qingdao, all those with foreign nationality in Shandong have been closely monitored, the military control order set by the Central Military Region for the "Peace Fortress" exercise has not been abolished, and all kinds of secrecy and anti-espionage measures have been tightened. Residents across Shandong, including counties and cities far away from Qingdao, have undergone a round of strict identity screening, and local councils are deeply dissatisfied with temporary control measures such as time limits for leaving the country and restricting the scope of activities. To this end, the National Assembly held a special meeting and promulgated the Shandong Wartime Control Regulations, which can be regarded as a green light for the military and the government's war behavior from a legal point of view.

Although Shibuya Kawa Nakasa was unable to go to the hinterland of Shandong to collect intelligence in person, with the old foundation of the intelligence network built by the Japanese government for decades, Shibuya Kawa still sorted out what he wanted. He was shocked to find that a copy of the top-secret information written by Shibuya himself was brought back to Japan by diplomats sent back to Japan by Ambassador Gonsuke Hayashi, but Shibuya did not return to Japan, and he needed to further verify and gather the information he needed.

The Japanese embassy lodged a protest with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs over the restrictions on the movement of the Shibuya River. But the Ministry of Foreign Affairs ignored it. At that time, a high-level Japanese delegation came to China and started negotiations with the Chinese government on the Qingdao issue, and in order to paralyze China, Japan no longer raised the Shibuya issue, and the overall atmosphere of the negotiations was good, and Britain played the role of "mediator," and the negotiations were held in Prince Gong's Mansion, where the Qing family had previously lived, after the Qing family moved to Chengde Mountain Resort to live permanently. It was transformed into a state guesthouse to receive important foreign guests.

During the Sino-Japanese negotiations, Shibuya Nakasa met with Senior General Yusaku Uehara, a member of the delegation and the retired Minister of the Army, and confided his opinion to Senior General Uehara. Only an idiot would have come up with such a flawed plan.

"Your Excellency! It is absolutely not possible to send only three divisions to attack Shandong! The Shina Army had already deployed four divisions in Shandong, with a total strength of more than 200,000 (Shibuya deliberately exaggerated the strength of the Chinese army)! How can those bastards in the base camp who ignore reality be so sloppy? Three divisions? If I want to see that five divisions may not be enough! The Jinpu and Jiaoji roads are in the hands of China and only need a week. They can transport two more divisions from the Southeast Military Region and Zhili! Your Excellency, General. The plan of the General Staff Headquarters is too dangerous, please convince the War Department to increase the number of troops for the sake of the security of the Empire. ”

There are a number of middle-level officers in the General Staff Headquarters who hold real power and are extremely arrogant and often disregard their superiors for their dignity and humility. It's quite capable. Shibuya, a graduate of the Army University, has been in charge of intelligence. In 1911, he served as an army attaché and spent nine months in Beijing. He was a personal disciple of Lieutenant General Sakanishi, and in order to verify the intelligence of the Chinese army nearby, the General Staff Headquarters sent him to China again to collect military intelligence.

"Shibuya-kun. Overestimating the capabilities of the Chinese army, right? "Senior General Uehara is a hawkish figure, vigorously planning and implementing the expansion of the army, and has a fully supportive attitude towards sending troops to Shandong.

"Nope. The Chinese army must not be underestimated. Shibuya Nakasa unconsciously used the honorific title of "Hua Jun", "First of all, I must explain to you that the intelligence network we operate in Shina has suffered heavy losses, and our intelligence gathering capacity has dropped by more than half compared to five years ago. Rao is so, and according to the information that has been verified, the situation is still extremely critical. The equipment of the main forces of the Chinese army has surpassed that of the Imperial Army, and they are equipped with a large number of light machine guns that the Imperial Army does not have, and even equipped to the squad level. Several times larger than the Imperial Division! They also have a large number of light mortars, and the 6th Division has been completely reequipped with new rifles that surpass ours. According to calculations, the transport capacity of one truck can be as high as 30 animal-powered vehicles, and in particular, Shandong's good road network has enabled the Chinese army's logistical support capability to reach an unprecedented height...... Also, "Shibuya completely ignored Admiral Uehara's darkening complexion, "the Chinese army has a sizable flying force, this flying force with an estimated number of hundreds of aircraft has played a major role in the Battle of Qingdao, they have already developed a set of tactics that are ahead of the Empire, and they have at least four well-equipped field airfields in Shandong. In order to find out the situation of the unit, the Empire has lost four excellent spies, but the specific situation, such as the number of aircraft, commanders, types of weapons, etc., is still confusing. The existence of such a force would be a nightmare for the Imperial Army, and the military operations of the Empire would be invisible. Let's put it this way, in addition to heavy artillery, the weapons of the Chinese army have comprehensively surpassed our army. The General Staff Headquarters once assessed the time for attacking Qingdao Fortress and believed that it would take 30~45 days to capture Qingdao with a fully formed division. This also requires the support of naval guns. And the 6th Division of the Chinese Army broke through the core position in only one day......"

"But they scrapped one of the main brigades." Admiral Uehara interrupted Shibuya Nakasa's words.

"Don't believe the propaganda of the Shina people. Don't believe in the illusion that the Chinese army will withdraw from Shandong. The subordinates believe that the people of China are determined to face the empire in Shandong! The 'Fortress of Peace' exercise was a rehearsal. ”

"It's nonsense." Admiral Uehara was a little upset.

After defeating the Russian army in the Russo-Japanese War, the Japanese Army's confidence was unprecedentedly high, believing that it was fully capable of competing with European armies. In particular, the optimism of the upper echelons is even stronger, and Yusaku Uehara is one of them. When he was secretary of war, he advocated the expansion of the army not to deal with China, but to compete with the old enemy navy to improve the status of the army, and second, to guard against Russia. The Japanese Army has never regarded China as an imaginary enemy, and despite the rhetoric about the Chinese threat in recent years, the top brass has not changed its contempt for the Chinese military.

"Nope. The subordinates are worried about the empire. Your Excellency, I ask you to face up to the reality and never joke with the fortunes of the country. ”

"Nakasa, you're going too far!" Admiral Uehara was angry.

Shibuya was kicked out of Admiral Uehara's room.

Shibuya was not eligible to participate in the secret talks between China, Japan and Britain on the Qingdao issue. Uehara sensed that China had begun to back down from the Empire's overt threats of war. This is true both in terms of the attitude of the government in China and in the propaganda of public opinion, since Beijing came to Beijing, he has been paying close attention to China's reports on the Qingdao issue, and has found that the original high-profile call for the main war has become weaker and weaker, and there have been more and more articles related to Sino-Japanese friendship and Asian solidarity and common progress.

Long Qian has not been seen, and the negotiations were presided over by Foreign Minister Tang Shaoyi, and Premier Fang Shengyuan attended two of the most critical talks, which can also be confirmed from the attitude of the Chinese side, which can also confirm that the Chinese side is unwilling to meet with the imperial army. But the empire was already determined to fight this war, so the general situation in the negotiations was that the Japanese side attacked. The Chinese side backed down. The British side is in the middle and dilute the mud. From the free port status of Qingdao Port, the withdrawal of Chinese troops from Qingdao and then to the destination of the Jiaoji Railway, Japan is pressing forward step by step, and China is struggling to support it. Admiral Uehara judged that if the Japanese side was satisfied with the port of Qingdao itself. I am afraid that the results of the talks have already come to an end.

But the imperial government wanted to force China to break down the negotiations. The military department needs time. Diplomacy needs a fig leaf. Therefore, the negotiations have been carried out in a protracted form, and the Japanese side has constantly proposed to adjourn the meeting and has kept organizing tours to kill time. It has been ten days since I went to Beijing. He visited the former Qing Imperial Palace and the Summer Palace, which had been turned into a museum, visited an advanced food factory, and also visited the Baoding Non-commissioned Officer School in Baoding, and delivered a keynote speech to the teachers and students of the school advocating the cooperation between Japan and China.

The Chinese side kept urging, but the Japanese side kept delaying.

There is accurate information that the troops of the 1st Division of the Chinese Army are withdrawing from Shandong, and this is an indication of the success of the Chinese side at the request of the Japanese side. At the Baoding Military Academy, General Uehara met and talked with General Du Sanli, the commander of the lame 1st Division, who had just returned from Shandong. Uehara once served as the commander of the Third Division, and has rich experience in leading troops. Du Sanli is the commander of the 1st Division, the most elite of the Chinese Army, which shows the overall situation of the Chinese Army.

So Uehara didn't take Shibuya's opinion seriously.

However, Shibuya and the information gathered from other sources caused controversy at the top of the Japanese leadership, and the General Staff Headquarters revised its previous opinion, holding that one more division must be added to ensure the success of the Shandong campaign. The elders of Yama County agreed with the General Staff Headquarters, and under pressure from the military department, the cabinet reluctantly approved a plan to increase the number of divisions and regiments.

Strength is not the problem, the key is finance. The ever-increasing budget has made the Ministry of Finance miserable, and Kato Takaaki sternly rebuked the Ministry of War that it is now mobilizing not three divisions, but six! Among them, one is North Korea, one is Manchuria, and four are Shandong! In view of the lessons of the Russo-Japanese War (Japan's war budget for the Russo-Japanese War was too unreliable to be a joke), Kato was worried about the collapse of the Japanese economy as a result of the Battle of Shandong!

How can the military department ensure that war spending can be compensated by China? What if there is an end to the Russo-Japanese War? In response to Kato's questioning, the military department swore that China was not Russia, and that the post-war reparations in China alone would be enough to compensate.

In order to obtain the Shandong oil field, the Navy supported the Army's Shandong strategy for the first time. Thanks to the support of the Navy, there is no force that can stand in the way of the adventure against China.

Fang Shengyuan has been living in Yanqingzhai in Xiyuan since he married in February 1910, and in terms of area, Yanqingzhai definitely surpasses Haiyantang. However, because Haiyan Hall has been renovated by Cixi, it is not as good as Haiyan Hall in terms of exquisiteness. His wife, Zhao Tao, looked forward to moving after seeing the unfinished Prime Minister's Office, thinking that the house was not well lit and damp and low, and she preferred the spacious and bright Western-style buildings, and always urged her husband to move early. But Fang Shengyuan ordered the construction of the prime minister's palace first, and the new area of the western suburbs government has been postponed for nearly six months due to funding delays.

Zhao Tao saw that her husband's face was gloomy, so she asked if she was angry in Haiyan Hall? She knew that her husband was going to ask the president for the Sino-Japanese Qingdao negotiations, but there was no way, the president was too strong, so that the prime minister named the head of the government was like a big clerk, not only did he have no right to intervene in military affairs, but he was also the government's servant, and he only obeyed Long Qian's orders.

"The president is bent on going his own way, and this war is unavoidable." Fang Shengyuan said to his wife.

"Then let's fight." Zhao Tao disagreed, "Isn't the army very powerful?" Even the Germans succumbed. ”

"You know what?" Fang Shengyuan glared at Zhao Tao, "This is not a local conflict, if you don't do it, you will lose the country!" Military interference in politics is really an endless disaster! ”

Zhao Tao works in the Prime Minister's Office, and is one of Fang Shengyuan's secretaries, with a high level of secrecy, and some military affairs are not hidden from her.

However, not to mention the handover of the Jiaoji Railway, even if Qingdao is a free port, it may not be approved by the Congress. Public opinion is even more unbearable...... Whoever dares to sign such an agreement is a traitor. Zhao Tao was worried that her husband would become Long Qian's scapegoat. Public opinion is terrible, and the government's attitude towards Japan's aggressive advance has aroused dissatisfaction from all sides, but the General Administration of Press and Publication has been suspicious of the president's instructions, which has further intensified the resistance of public opinion.

"Developing the economy is a top priority, is it easy to achieve the results of the past few years? Everyone understands this truth, but some people just don't care about the overall situation for their own interests! What are the benefits of fighting a war? After a battle, at least one trunk railway was eaten, and countless orphans and widows were already killed. The cheap ones are only those generals who are eager for military merit. It was not unacceptable for Qingdao to be turned into a free port, but Haiyantang had long been ready for a full-scale war, and set up a situation to lure the Japanese into sending troops. He has been in a high position for a long time, and it is no longer in the Shandong period and at the beginning of the founding of the People's Republic of China, he can't listen to the advice of the contrary ear...... "Fang Sheng is far and deep and melancholy.

Just now there was another disagreement with Long Qian on the negotiations, and he hoped that the negotiations would be successful, and that Jiaoji Road would definitely not be given to Japan, but the Qingdao issue could be discussed, not to mention the guarantee of the British. But Long Qian criticized him for being confused, this battle must not be avoided, and it must be fought. He was instructed to gradually harden his attitude, which led to the breakdown of the negotiations, and that he must bear the reputation of Japan for causing the breakdown of the negotiations.

"Maybe the president is worried about public opinion......"

"Public opinion? With his prestige, as long as he comes out and speaks, who dares to question his decision? The two major parties in Congress are even more submissive. It's the military, who is going to openly argue with him? The main battle is none other than the president. But it's too dangerous......"

Fang Shengyuan, who was in charge of economic work, tasted the sweetness of construction, and was anxious for an environment for peaceful construction, worried about the failure of the war with Japan, and worried about bad relations with Britain, France, and Russia, which were also Entente powers, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Strategic Research Society under the Ministry of Defense had already come to the conclusion that if the European war fell into a protracted one, the German and Austrian sides, which were deeply trapped in the interior and lacked overseas resources, were doomed to failure. Japan has already joined the camp of the Entente, and a war with Japan at this time will cause an even greater crisis? Finally forcing China to join the doomed side?

Fang Shengyuan felt that Long Qian was too uncalm. But he must carry out Long Qian's instructions, continue to follow Long Qian's instructions and the Japanese to go down the negotiating table, and slide towards the rupture.

On September 19, the Beijing talks officially broke down. China rejected Japan's three major demands of "free port, Jiaoji Road, and no military stationing". The Japanese delegation departed for China the next day.

On 20 September, Long Qian delivered a speech at the National Assembly, in which he reported on the entire process of the breakdown of the Sino-Japanese peace talks, denounced Japan's wolfish ambition to annihilate China, disclosed an overview of Japan's military preparations, and reported the government's general policy toward Japan, that is, never giving in and resolutely countering violence with violence. However, the basic policy of not declaring war and not expanding has been determined. If Japan does not provoke elsewhere, China will exercise restraint and maintain the status quo, but if Japan dares to start a full-scale war, China will respond with all its strength.

As for relations with the Entente, Long Qian gave a special explanation. If war breaks out between China and Japan, it does not mean that China has joined the Allied camp. This is a just war for China to resist foreign aggression and has nothing to do with the European war. China will continue to pursue the policy of neutrality that has been established, and as long as countries do not intervene in the Sino-Japanese conflict, any existing policy will not be changed.

Finally, on behalf of the government, Long Qian put forward a request for an additional 100 million yuan for the war.

The Senate and House of Representatives held a closed-door meeting on the same day, agreed to the demand for an increase in war spending, and authorized the president to have full authority to deal with the Sino-Japanese conflict. (To be continued......)