Episode 145 About the Japanese Invasion

Since "whether or not to go on the Northern Expedition" involved the national fortunes of the Ming Empire, every day was a fierce debate. On the first day, everyone was relatively restrained, but on the second day, the atmosphere became intense, with fierce words and swords, and the smell of gunpowder was already very strong. If it weren't for Zhu Yourong and Shen Rongxuan's "town", they would have to fight in circles around the table and play all martial arts.

On the first and second days, despite the fierce debate, Shen Rongxuan consciously did not participate in the speech, but only balanced left and right, and "maintained order on the spot" like a referee. On the third day, Shen Rongxuan began to express some opinions in a low-key manner, revealing a little of his tendency to favor the Northern Expedition. Although he is very low-key, his identity is here, so he quickly formed an opinion leader at the venue. Many ministers who had spoken cautiously or wavered from side to side immediately went to his side.

Despite this, a considerable number of ministers were resolutely opposed to the Northern Expedition. They make up about two-fifths of the cabinet ministers and about one-third of the total number of participants. However, although they are still fiercely opposed, because Xiang Xiaoqiang's sentence "Are the people of the north counted as my Ming people", now no one is talking about "the happiness of the people is higher than the unification of the country". Because the truth is clear: no matter in terms of ethics, legal principles, history, or feelings, the people in the occupied areas undoubtedly belong to the people of the Ming Dynasty. Since the vast majority of the people of the Ming Dynasty are still under the iron hooves of the Manchu Qing Dynasty and are in dire straits, then if the people want to be happy, they must be unified by the country. ...... "Never Northern Expedition" just showed its head, it was photographed by Xiang Xiaoqiang in a pan.

After the first three days of argumentation, examples, data analysis, as well as a comprehensive comparison of the military, economy, resources, production capacity, war potential, and morale of the people on both sides, we finally came to a convincing conclusion: In the new Ming and Qing wars, the probability of the Ming Dynasty winning should not be less than 70%. This "victory" means that the Ming Dynasty was able to reach the more conservative end line of the war: the Yellow River-Qinling line.

This termination line will be the same as the current line of the Yangtze River-Hengduan Mountains, and will become a barrier that can be attacked and retreated. If the battle situation is still good by then, we can cross this line and continue to advance northward, striving to recover the whole territory of China. If the war situation is tense at that time, then we can retreat from this line and go all out to operate this new line of defense, so as to create a favorable strategic situation for the recovery of the entire territory of China in the future.

Of course, since this step can be reached, the territory, population, resources, industrial center, strategic depth, and coastline of the Northern Qing Dynasty have been greatly compressed. Even if we are unable to completely pacify the Qing captives at the moment, it is more realistic to recover the whole country in the near future.

……

But the reason why opposition ministers so easily agreed that "the Northern Expedition was likely to win" was because they put forward an even more lethal argument – the Japanese threat.

This means that if we only fight with Beiqing, we may win. But don't forget that there's also Japan.

Everyone knows that Japan is currently the fastest-growing and most ambitious country in East Asia. And it has always been eager to get a piece of continental territory. What if Japan took the opportunity to invade and the fishermen profited during the most difficult fighting in the Ming and Qing dynasties? If it invades from the Korean Peninsula, fights from the north to the south, and takes the Northern Qing Dynasty first, then the Ming Dynasty still has a large room for maneuver. If Japan chooses to land from Fujian and Zhejiang, and first stabs the Ming in the back, then the Ming Dynasty will be in danger of being attacked in the back.

To be honest, this is also what Xiang Xiaoqiang and other generals of the Northern Expedition are most worried about. However, the so-called "most worried" did not worry enough to think that the Northern Expedition could not be carried out. It is only to say that in the whole war of unification of China, the danger of Japan was more noteworthy than that of the Manchus themselves.

Before the meeting, Xiang Xiaoqiang and the military generals also expected that there would definitely be ministers who raised the issue of Japan, so they also made preparations in advance. However, it is very risky to present this view to the highest decision-making levels of the entire empire at the meeting. Or rather, there is a lot of responsibility. Because this is tantamount to making a military order. The opposition argued that Japan was too dangerous to go on a northern expedition. The Northern Expeditionary faction patted its chest and said that although Japan was dangerous, we had a way to overcome it and would not let the Ming Dynasty be defeated.

Although this is said, but the war is unpredictable after all, if the Ming Dynasty is really defeated because of Japan's participation in the war, or even if it is not defeated, but suffers a big loss, then who will bear the responsibility?

There is no doubt that it must be the person who patted his chest at the meeting at the beginning to bear the burden.

Therefore, Xiang Xiaoqiang tried his best to ask that he take this risk himself, and that he should make his own statements about the possibility of a Japanese invasion at the meeting. Because in the final analysis, he was the original proposer of the Northern Expedition to the Manchu Qing Dynasty. But Zhang Zhaoxian, chief of the General Staff, disagreed, and pressed Xiang Xiaoqiang down. He has to do it himself. Because in his opinion, he is the supreme commander of the imperial ** team, so this responsibility related to the fortunes of the country naturally has to be borne by himself.

"It's very good," Zhang Zhaoxian said to him with a smile at the time, "Don't fight with me about this." I'm getting old and I'm going to retire soon. Don't say take some responsibility, even if I am removed from office and convicted immediately, I have nothing to fear. But you are still young, with an unlimited future, and you are also a rare talent in our Ming Dynasty. When you're my age, you'll have to fight with young people. Hehe. ”

Xiang Xiaoqiang was originally out of the way. Because he knows that he is in this world for five years at most, he has far fewer scruples. But Marshal Zhang Zhaoxian really moved him this time. He stood solemnly, and he slammed into the ground.

……

At the Supreme Military and Political Conference of the Empire, Zhang Zhaoxian spoke:

"Several cabinet ministers have raised the possibility of a possible Japanese invasion. Zhao Xian was a soldier, and his political judgment was inferior to that of the ministers. Ministers are responsible politicians, and since someone has raised it, it must have been thought out maturely. Let's assume in advance that politically, Japan may take advantage of the opportunity to invade. Next, I would like to share my own views on military affairs, and I would like to invite my colleagues in the military circles here to discuss them together. ”

Zhang Zhaoxian's words were understood, and the ministers understood. It means to say: you say that Japan may invade, well, this is a political category, politically I admit that you are experts, I will not argue with you. But then there is the military issue. I admit that you are experts and do not argue with you on political issues, but you must also admit that you are an expert on military issues, and do not argue with me. Even if it is an argument, I only accept the argument of "colleagues in the military circles".

In fact, the "colleagues in the military circles" were all members of the Northern Expeditionary faction.

Several ministers who opposed the Northern Expedition looked at each other and couldn't say anything. Then you have to keep listening.

Zhang Zhaoxian continued:

"Since Japan could invade, it was first and foremost a question of the route, that is, where to invade from. There are two possibilities: one, an invasion from the north. Second, an invasion from the south. As a result of the discussion just now, there is already a consensus among all of you present in the military and political circles: That is, Japan's invasion from the north will bring less danger. And the invasion from the south, that is, from the back of our Ming Dynasty, brings much greater danger.

"Everyone agrees that if it can be proved that Japan will invade from the south, then we will be fighting two enemies at the same time, on two fronts. In that case, we would rather abandon the Northern Expedition. On the other hand, if Japan invades from the north, then we can still consider the Northern Expedition. Because of a single-front operation, there will be no major changes in the direction of our offensive and strategic deployment, and we will still be fighting against the same enemy. It's just that this enemy has become stronger. Whether we advance or retreat, we have a lot of leeway.

"From a military point of view, I think that if Japan were to invade, if it were to invade, it would be very unlikely to attack from the south, but very likely to attack from the north. Why? Because in the north there is Japan's only springboard on the East Asian continent: the Korean Peninsula. Japan has been operating on the Korean Peninsula for many years, and it is a very stable strategic rear.

"The Korean Peninsula is very close to the Japanese mainland, and it is very convenient to transport both the increase in troops and logistics. Japan's traditional naval bases, such as Yokosuka, Sasebo, Kure Port, Nagasaki, etc., as well as the entire Seto Inland Sea, are very close to North Korea, separated by only one Tsushima Strait. Once a ship needs to be repaired, it can be sailed back to its home base for docking repairs in a short time. This is crucial for overseas wars.

In other words, Japan's invasion from the Korean Peninsula and Liaodong was the most successful, least dangerous, and most beneficial choice. Although attacking from the north is a small direct threat to our Ming Dynasty, from the Japanese side, after all, its purpose is not to destroy our Ming Dynasty, but to get a territory on the East Asian continent and relieve the pressure on domestic land and resources. Then the ideal is the northern part of the East Asian continent. It is close to Japan itself, and it can also be connected to the existing Korean Peninsula, so it can be easily incorporated into the territory of the 'Great Japanese Empire'. This is crucial.

"On the other hand, if Japan were to attack in the south, and if it was to be found in the south of Japan, it would be an enclave for Japan." The term 'enclave' means that it is too far away from the mainland to be occupied and operated sustainably. The Japanese invaded for land and resources. The land outside the Liaodong Pass is undoubtedly much more extensive than Jiangnan, and the natural resources are much richer than Jiangnan. Most of our Fujian and Zhejiang provinces are mountainous, the arable plains are very narrow, and the natural resources are far inferior to those of Liaodong. In addition to oil, Liaodong has almost all the resources that Japan needs. The most important thing is that Liaodong is much easier to fight than Jiangnan.

"Why? First of all, the offensive from the north is a traditional land offensive. And attacking from the south requires a large-scale amphibious landing. It's easy to see which is easier and harder. In the case that our Ming navy is still very strong, and every port has shore defense artillery, the success rate of such a landing is extremely low. Secondly, the coast of our Daming is composed of three parts: Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong. No matter which section of the Japanese army chooses to land, it will be extremely difficult.

"Zhejiang is the closest to the Japanese mainland, and if you choose to land here, it will undoubtedly be the most convenient in terms of logistics transportation and troop increase. But in the Zhoushan Islands off Zhejiang, there is our main fleet. Our 6 battleships, 1 battlecruiser, 4 aircraft carriers are all here. Although Japan's navy as a whole is stronger than ours, it is only slightly stronger, and it has not formed an overwhelming advantage. They had 4 more battleships than us, the same number of aircraft carriers as ours, and we had two original battlecruisers, 1 more after the sale to the Germans. This modernized and modified Zhurong can at least be worth most of the battleships. Cruisers, Japan is 21 ships, ours is 20 ships, basically equal.

"The total strength of the Japanese fleet did not have an overwhelming advantage over us, and in addition we were fighting at home, they sailed hundreds of nautical miles from afar to fight, and the logistics, troop transportation, and air cover were all at a loss, and the only advantage was also negated. Whether we are in the Zhoushan Islands or along the coast of Zhejiang, there are airports, batteries, torpedo boat bases, and submarine bases everywhere, which together build a hornet's nest. If the Japanese fleet attacked, in addition to fighting a decisive battle with our fleet, it would also have to be prepared to be attacked in many directions. Therefore, unless the Japanese army is irrational, it is impossible to attack in Zhejiang.

"If the Japanese army chooses to land in Fujian or Guangdong, then it will be equally difficult. First of all, Guangdong's voyage is even longer, almost close to the South Seas, and it is close to 2,000 kilometers from the Japanese mainland, so it will be more difficult to transport troops and logistical supplies. What was even more fatal to the Japanese army was that this long supply line had to pass through numerous naval bases and airfields of our army in Zhejiang and Fujian. On the north and south sides of Taiwan-Bay Island, Kaohsiung and Keelung also have our military ports. Even if we don't fight the main force of the Japanese fleet, we can easily cut off the Japanese supply line by arranging a few more patrols on this long route. Therefore, unless the Japanese army is irrational, it is impossible for them to attack in Guangdong.

"The rest is Fujian. First of all, for the Japanese army, Fujian had the disadvantages of both Zhejiang and Guangdong: the supply line was much longer than Zhejiang, and it was much closer to the main force of the Ming fleet than Guangdong. Secondly, the territory of Fujian Province is full of mountains, lofty mountains and mountains, and there is not an inch of flat land. Even if the Japanese army successfully landed in Fujian, it would be difficult to deploy its troops in a short period of time, and it would be even more difficult to attack inland in a short period of time. Fujian is the province with the largest number of coastal garrisons in the Ming Dynasty. We've always put a part of our army here, and that's what we're doing.

"Our Southern Army in Fujian is brave and hard-working, and is particularly good at fighting in the local subtropical mountain and forest environment. In this Ming-Dutch War, the Fujian Army participated in the operation on Jawa Island in the South Ocean and performed well. If the Japanese landed successfully, they would face a fierce attack by superior forces familiar with the local environment before they had brought more troops ashore and had not yet deployed. The Japanese army's maritime logistics supply lines were exposed to the blows of the Zhejiang East China Sea Fleet. Therefore, unless the Japanese army is irrational, it is impossible for them to attack in Fujian.

"I saw that some of the adults were already laughing. Yes, I said three 'unless the Japanese army is irrational, it will not attack somewhere', in fact, it has included the entire Daming coast. That is, unless the Japanese army is irrational, it will not attack in the south. So if they attack, where will they attack? The only possibility, that is - the north! Advance from the Korean Peninsula through Liaodong to Kannai. For Japan, if it were to invade, it was the only sensible thing to do.

"Japan should understand that with its strength, even if it is a sudden attack from behind, the possibility of eating the Ming in one bite does not exist. It is possible that the Ming will lose the battle, that it may lose its land, and that it may even withdraw to the rear of the Southwest. However, Japan knows very well in its heart that as long as it cannot completely wipe out the Ming Dynasty, the 'enclave' in its hands will not be theirs. Da Ming will definitely do his best to keep attacking westward. Even if Japan united with the Manchus and Qing to attack the Ming Dynasty, because the Ming Dynasty's Yangtze River defense line, especially the western mountain defense line, was impassable, the Qing army could only invade south from the east like the Japanese army. Then the Ming Dynasty is still only a one-front battle.

"What Japan wants is to get a piece of continental territory, not to be drawn into a long war. Therefore, no matter from which aspect, it will invade from behind the Manchu Qing, objectively form a flank with the Ming Dynasty, quickly solve the Manchu Qing, and then negotiate with the Ming Dynasty to strive for an understanding between the two sides and legally retain the land in hand. And how to choose when the time comes, the initiative is still ours. In any case, the strategic situation of our Ming Dynasty at that time will be much more advantageous than carefully sticking to the Yangtze River defense line now.

"Your Majesty, my Excellency, the above is an analysis made by myself, my three colleagues in the General Staff, and the Commander of the People's Guard Corps on the possibility of a Japanese invasion of the East Asian continent. The conclusion was that although the Japanese army had the possibility of taking the opportunity to invade the East Asian continent, it was basically impossible for the Japanese army to attack in our Daming. After we arrived at the termination line of the Northern Expedition, we had a lot of room for maneuver with Japan, both militarily and diplomatically. Therefore, in front of our Ming Empire, there is still a very promising prospect of the Northern Expedition.

"I would like to invite the Cabinet Ministers to discuss it first. I also ask Your Majesty to decide. I'm done talking. ”

The old marshal had a solemn expression, first bowed to Zhu Yourong, and then owed to the ministers around him, and leaned back in his chair.