Chapter 0812: I Personally Lead
These historical materials, Chongzhen Emperor Zhu Youzhen can be easily intercepted in the modern computer, but even the Confucians, who have read the scriptures and history, and the core figures of the Ming Dynasty, have never known so in such detail, this country is not the country of Chongzhen Emperor Zhu Youzhen alone, and the revitalization of the whole country cannot rely on any one person.
Even if he is the emperor, it is useless, his role can only be leading, not Zhang Fei's eager vanguard! With the mind on the Ming Dynasty, all his energy and spiritual sustenance were silent after the Ming Dynasty, Chongzhen Emperor Zhu Youzhen finally found a personal positioning, he wanted to get these ministers without paying attention to the history, a very important history, concisely and concisely to explain to everyone, even to the entire Chinese nation! Regardless of whether his rule will be overthrown in the future, Emperor Chongzhen Zhu Youzhen hopes that the people of the country will clearly understand the current position of the entire country in history!
The opening of new shipping routes caused the so-called "commercial revolution", which expanded economic and cultural exchanges between regions and peoples in various parts of the world, and promoted the integration of culture and science and technology among countries around the world. The opening of new shipping routes promoted the expansion of trade between Europe and Africa and Asia, and began to form close economic ties with the Americas. As Europe's trade routes and trade centers shifted from the Mediterranean to the Atlantic coast, Italy's monopoly on merchandise trade was gradually replaced by Portugal and Spain, the Netherlands, and England. This led to the so-called "price revolution", which caused a large influx of precious metals into Europe due to the plunder of Western colonization, resulting in a decline in the value of gold and silver. Prices have skyrocketed. In the process of the "price revolution". The emerging industrial and commercial bourgeoisie acquired violence. The decline of the feudal landlords, the increasing poverty of the working people, and the commercial and price revolutions accelerated the decline of the European feudal system and the development of capitalism.
The success of the new shipping route was the beginning of the Western colonial era, which changed the shape of the world and the course of historical development. Europeans began to control and penetrate the politics of North America, Asia, and Africa, accompanied by economic exploitation and plunder, due to the penetration of Western religion and culture, the culture and way of life in the colonial areas gradually underwent great changes, and at the same time, the relative isolation between the states was gradually broken. Increasingly, the world is becoming an interdependent and interconnected whole.
"When the whole world is connected as a whole, the economy will play a higher role than war! The economy is the most powerful guarantee for politics and the military! All of them will focus on economic construction! Chongzhen Emperor Zhu Youzhen made a summary of the ministers.
Emperor Zhu Youzhen of Chongzhen is very aware that in modern times, the impact of the depreciation of the US dollar on China's economy, first of all, the depreciation of the US dollar has increased the pressure of RMB appreciation and the difficulty of macroeconomic control. Although since July 2005, when China implemented the reform of the RMB exchange rate mechanism, the cumulative appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar has exceeded 10%. However, because the US dollar has depreciated sharply against other major currencies in the world, and the exchange rate of the renminbi mainly adopts a policy of pegging to the US dollar, it is relative to major currencies such as the euro and the British pound. The renminbi has depreciated. Countries and regions, including the European Union and Canada, have put pressure on the renminbi to appreciate in order to bear some of the consequences of the depreciation of the dollar. Recently, the pace of appreciation of the renminbi has accelerated, and the depreciation of the US dollar has undoubtedly become an "important driving force".
Secondly. The Fed's cut in the federal funds rate has constrained the Chinese government's macroeconomic control policies. In the event of a sharp deceleration in U.S. GDP or an acceleration in the housing market decline, the Fed could cut the federal funds rate in succession, which would cause large outflows of short-term capital out of the United States, and China would be an ideal destination for such capital. China is currently in a situation of excess liquidity and rising asset prices, and the ideal policy is to raise the interest rate on RMB deposits and loans. Once the People's Bank of China raises interest rates, it will cause the spread with the US federal funds rate to further narrow or invert, attracting more capital inflows. The narrowing or inversion of the interest rate differential between China and the United States will also put upward pressure on the RMB exchange rate.
The depreciation of the dollar will pose a severe test for China's exports. With the increase in the appreciation of the renminbi, the inhibition of exports by the appreciation of the exchange rate will gradually be revealed. In addition, China has made positive adjustments to its foreign trade policy in recent years, especially since July 2007, it has reduced the export tax rebate rate for many export commodities, which has directly compressed the profitability of export enterprises. In the past two years, there has been a labor shortage in coastal areas such as Guangdong, and labor costs have been increasing. China's trade surplus continues to increase, leading to increasing international trade frictions. In the context of the appreciation of the local currency, the decline in the export tax rebate rate, the rise in labor costs, and the intensification of international trade frictions, China's export prospects in 2008 are not optimistic. Considering that in the first three quarters of 2007, net exports contributed about 40% of China's GDP. If exports shrink, it will have a severe impact on China's economic growth and employment.
From the perspective of the impact of U.S. policy adjustments on China's capital market, historically, interest rate hikes in developed countries have often caused international capital to flow back from developing countries to developed countries, thus having a negative impact on the capital markets of developing countries. However, this phenomenon will not happen in China today, and the purpose of the current large amount of "hot money" flowing into China is not to arbitrage the interest rate differential between China and the United States, but to target the high yield of China's capital market. Therefore, the narrowing or widening of the interest rate differential between China and the United States will not significantly affect the pattern of international capital inflows into China. On the other hand, if the dollar depreciates sharply and the renminbi appreciates sharply, the resulting international capital flows could push up China's asset prices and increase asset price volatility. But so far, China's stock market price has risen mainly endogenously rather than exogenously, and most of the foreign inflows into China have been equity hedge funds rather than external debt. Therefore, neither the US interest rate cut nor the US dollar depreciation will change the internal cycle of China's capital market. However, this is based on the premise that China still adheres to strict capital controls, and if the capital account is opened rashly, so that speculative capital can enter and exit freely, once there is a disturbance, the domestic capital market will immediately "be full of soldiers".
Under the external force of the depreciation of the US dollar, the continuous appreciation of the renminbi and the adjustment of China's economic structure have played a positive role in changing the internal and external imbalances of China's economy. However, in the short term, due to the strong complementarity of Sino-US trade, it is difficult to reverse the situation of Sino-US trade surplus for a while, and Sino-US trade frictions will continue to exist.
Chongzhen Emperor Zhu Youzhen can only say this, no matter whether his helpers can understand it or not, but he must retell this history to them, the history of currency, retell to them, so that they can have a complete understanding of the economic changes in the world and even the entire history!
"Your Majesty, the old minister understands a little, and he is a little confused, but the old minister feels that there is no harm in seeing far enough now, but it is better to focus on the stability of the Gyeonggi region of the Ming Dynasty." Hou Yu admonished Emperor Chongzhen Zhu Youzhen.
Chongzhen Emperor Zhu Youzhen nodded, "I didn't say that I would reach the gold standard immediately, so I used paper money instead of silver and copper coins to circulate as the mainstream currency, which is one of the reasons why I asked you to slow down the issuance of paper money a little, to let everyone have confidence in the Ming banknotes, to make the Ming banknotes always in a rush, in such a form, to give people confidence, we must first make everyone have confidence in the Ming court!" This is the credit of the government! Only when the government itself has credibility can it talk about economic reform and political reform! Our reform is different from Zhang Juzheng, we are bigger! More advanced, and more severe, but you must remember that this time the reform was led by me personally! This is something that has never been seen in the history of the Ming Dynasty, or even in the history of China! (To be continued......)