Speaking of this, Chen Hanzhang put down the baton in his hand, and after a slight silence, he said: "At present, what the Japanese army is going to do next, I can't judge it for the time being. However, one thing is clear to me: including the Bohai Naval Region, our ground connection with the Shandong Military Region has now been severed. ”

"It is even possible that not only the main forces of the Shandong Military District, but also the connection with us will be cut off. The connection between the Northern Jiangsu Military Region and the Huaibei Military Region to the south, the main force of the Shandong Military Region east of Yidu, and the Central and Southern Shandong Military Regions may be cut off. ”

"If the Japanese army had built this blockade in other places, they would not have so many troops. But on the Jiaodong Peninsula, they can take advantage of the special terrain of the peninsula that is long and narrow and close to the sea on three sides, and they can do this without investing too many troops. ”

"At the same time, the Shandong Military Region is unable to attack the outside line, which is equivalent to cutting off an arm of our next operation. Cutting off the main force of the Shandong Military Region and the troops of the Northern Jiangsu and Huaibei Military Regions in the south can also ensure the safety of the Longhai Road in wartime and its operation will not be greatly disturbed. ”

In doing so, although they abandoned almost all the control areas south of the Jiaoji Railway except for a few coastal ports, they were able to successfully trap the main force of the Shandong Military Region on the Jiaodong Peninsula. As long as the main force of the Shandong Military Region is trapped in Jiaodong, the remaining Luzhong Military Region and Lunan Military Region will not have much impact on their next move. ”

"Because in order to form a field army, the Shandong Military Region has actually drained the main forces of these two military regions. The remaining local armed forces and some of the main forces left behind may be more than capable of self-preservation, but it will be difficult to take the initiative to attack. And what the Japanese army wants is this situation, to ensure that in the next counterattack, the two major railways of Jinpu and Longhai will not be interfered with in any way. ”

"If I am not mistaken, of the eight field divisions formed by the Shandong Military Region this time, the third and fourth divisions were formed by the troops of the Luzhong Military Region, and the eighth division was formed by the Lunan Military Region. Of the 12 garrison brigades, six were formed by these two military regions. ”

"At present, in the entire Luzhong and Lunan military regions, the main forces left behind together only have five garrison brigades. The remaining local armed forces are far inferior to the main forces that have been withdrawn, both in terms of equipment and combat effectiveness. And even with the addition of the local armed forces under the two military regions, the remaining troops of the two military regions are less than 20,000. ”

"Under such circumstances, as long as the main forces of the Shandong Military Region, which are currently concentrated on the Jiaoji line, cannot return to Luzhong and Lunan to fight, they will not pose any threat to the Jinpu line and the Longhai Road. Although it is necessary to transfer a part of the troops to do so, for the Japanese army, it is far more than fighting us in the Hebei-Shandong border area, and the Shandong Military Region will set fire to the back, so that they will be able to account for the troops and materials they will consume when they are facing the front and rear attacks. ”

"The intention of the Japanese army in constructing these two blockade lines is not to solve our army in Shandong right now. Because they don't have enough strength to deal with the troops of our Shandong Military Region in Shandong, at least until we remove the threat to the northern Lubei region. ”

"Moreover, the Japanese army, which has been fighting our army in North China for a long time, knows very well that even if a large number of troops are invested in the sweep, it will be difficult to eradicate our army in Shandong. Instead of consuming a large amount of troops and time to solve our army in the Shandong battlefield, it is better to take advantage of the current situation and temporarily trap it in the narrow Jiaodong Peninsula. It is quite cost-effective to make it unable to pose a major threat to the course of the battle during the entire battle period. ”

"Although we don't have exact news at the moment, I have strong faith in my judgment. No. 1, if you don't believe my judgment, you can send electricity to the military headquarters of the New Fourth Army and the Shandong Military Region. In other words, the Japanese army used our own victory to weave a cage and tie our own hands and feet. ”

"No. 1, the Japanese army is now playing a big game of chess in Shandong, and even in the entire North China battlefield. It is likely that this game will begin to be exposed from the first stage of the battle, when the defeat of the Japanese army is revealed. When the troops of the Shandong Military Region put most of their main forces into the line along the Jiaoji Railway, they should have already begun to deploy. ”

"Judging from the current deployment of the Japanese army in Shandong, as well as the all-out efforts to secure the Shandong section of the Jinpu Line and the Longhai Road, I dare to conclude that the Japanese army will not only counterattack on all fronts in the next step, but also once it launches a counterattack on all fronts, the southeast Hebei region bordering Shandong will definitely be its main attack direction."

"At the same time, judging by the future direction of the entire battle situation, they will definitely take a landing operation on our flank when they launch a frontal offensive. In order to cooperate with the frontal front, we can complete the front and rear flanking attacks on our army in Hebei, so as to solve the Hebei battlefield as soon as possible. The Japanese army did not massively increase its troops in the Shandong battlefield in order to confuse us. ”

After listening to Chen Hanzhang's analysis of the entire Shandong situation, Yang Zhen did not give him an immediate reply, but stared at the wall of Chen Hanzhang's headquarters, which marked the map of the situation of the enemy and us in the entire Shandong battlefield for a long time before he said: "Your analysis is very thorough, and your vision is also very comprehensive and long-term. ”

However, the answers you gave do not fully explain the reason why the Japanese army acted in Shandong, let alone your judgment that the Japanese army took Shandong as the main direction of attack. Lao Chen, you know my habits. If you ask me to accept your point of view, then you have to convince me for good reason. ”

"I came today not only with my mouth, but also with my ears, and I want to listen to your analysis and judgment of the entire battle situation on the Eastern Front. To be honest, I have never been as unsure as I am today in judging the direction of the main attack of the Japanese army's next counterattack, so I came this time. ”

"I am your superior, Lao Du is your old comrade-in-arms, there is nothing to taboo. What do you say today, pour the beans out of the bamboo tube thoroughly. In many cases, when it comes to military deployment, the opinions of your commanders in these aspects are very important. ”

Yang Zhen's words fell, and Chen Hanzhang did not answer immediately. Instead, he pondered for a moment before answering Yang Zhen's first question: "No. 1, the reason why I make this judgment." It was not only made from the situation of the Shandong battlefield, but also from the overall situation that our army is currently facing, as well as the Japanese commander's understanding of the battle situation. ”

"Because the Japanese army also knew very well that in the first phase of the battle, although we successively took Pingjin and almost all of Hebei, our own losses were also quite serious. Moreover, as the front retreated southward, the supply lines gradually began to lengthen, and the pressure on logistics increased. ”

"And what they know better is that the entire North China battlefield did not provide our army with the rest of the material conditions except for food. Most of the materials we needed for the war had to be transported from the northeast thousands of miles away. At the same time, the Japanese army is no stranger to tanks, and they are well aware that these equipment are oil tigers. ”

"At the moment, apart from Northeast China, let alone North China, the whole of China does not provide us with enough oil. That is to say, after entering the Hebei-Shandong-Henan zone, with the elongation of the supply line. Whether we like it or not, we need a lot of time to replenish our troops, as well as to stock up on supplies and ammunition. ”

"We will not be able to continue our southward movement until the troops' ability to attack is restored, and until we have stockpiled enough ammunition and supplies for sustained operations. After our army arrived in the Hebei-Lu border area, it had actually become a strong crossbow that could no longer penetrate Lu Min, and it had reached the extreme. ”

This is also why the Japanese army dared to sing an empty city plan in Shandong in a short period of time, make every effort to deal with the battlefield in eastern Henan, and raise reinforcements step by step. At present, although the Japanese army is more powerful than us, it is not too easy for the Japanese army to draw enough troops from the entire battle situation from the northeast to Australia. ”

"We're wheezing, they're wheezing. We need to replenish the battle damage, and they who have suffered more losses also need to replenish the battle damage, and mobilize enough troops to fight back. And compared with us, they also have to think about how to deal with the anti-Japanese forces behind enemy lines in their hinterland, so they need more time. ”

"In comparison, the overall situation in Shandong is more complicated than that in northern Henan. But for the Japanese army, Shandong's geography determined that they would prefer Shandong. Even though the Japanese abandoned the port of Qingdao and the Jiaoji Railway, they still controlled Yantai, Longkou Port, and the road from Yantai to Jinan. ”

"Although the scale of these two ports is not as good as Qingdao, the combined capacity of the two ports is not much smaller than that of Qingdao. Moreover, below Jining in Shandong, it can be navigated to the canal along Longhai Road, and it can also supplement part of its capacity. Shandong's traffic environment is far greater than that of eastern Henan, which has a large area of yellow flooding area and no railway and water transportation support. ”

At the same time, the current strategic position of Shandong in the whole of North China, as well as its favorable terrain for defense, determined that it was impossible for the Japanese army to abandon the whole of Shandong. In addition to the Jiaodong Peninsula near the sea, there are a large number of lakes as natural barriers between Luxi and Luzhong, which are relatively flat. ”

Shandong connects Jing and Cang to the north, and can go directly to Pingjin along the canal to the north, and to the south it goes directly to Xu and Pi, overlooking the two Huai, and can be directly inserted into the East Henan Plain to the west. Since ancient times, whether it is attacking in the south and defending in the north, or attacking in the north and defending in the south, Shandong has been the main battlefield. At present, for the Japanese army, once Shandong is lost, there will be no barrier for the entire Huaibei. ”

"Compared with eastern Henan, the terrain of Shandong as a whole was also more powerful for the Japanese army. It limits our army's ability to use tanks to carry out interspersed attacks on a large scale. In the entire territory of Shandong, the only terrain where our army can use tanks on a large scale is the Luxi area west of the canal, which itself restricts the interspersed routes of our army. ”

At the same time, a series of lakes along the canal starting from Dongping Lake on the south bank of the Yellow River to Tongshan Mountain in northern Jiangsu Province at the southern end of Weishan Lake can also become a natural barrier. Ensure that when it launches a full-front counterattack to the north, the flanks will not be outflanked by our army's large-scale detours. ”

"When the Japanese army launched a full-line counterattack on the Jilu border area, it only put part of its forces on the flank, and formed a whole with the Japanese army in northern and eastern Henan, and used the large and small lakes along the canal to protect the safety of its flanks. It is possible to put more forces on the front and on the landing on the flanks of our troops. ”

"This is something that cannot be done in eastern and northern Henan no matter what. If it chooses northern Henan as the main attack place, our army will concentrate a large number of tanks and forcibly intersperse them from western Luxi, and it can directly outflank the flank of its main attacking force. At the same time, the Japanese army took northern Henan as the main direction of attack, and the attack surface was also quite narrow. ”

"And it is surrounded by our troops, which is not conducive to secrecy before the operation at all. The most important thing is to take northern Henan, which is relatively inconvenient for transportation, as the main direction of attack, so the Japanese army must mobilize a large number of troops in advance. This tells us that their main direction of attack is there. Choosing Shandong as the main direction of attack would not be a problem for the Japanese army. ”