At the beginning of August 1914, Beijing was very unquiet and became a stage for diplomats from all over the world to compete for activities. Since the Allies and the Allies declared war on each other, President Long Qian and Foreign Minister Tang Shaoyi have become hot figures, and there are queues of ambassadors waiting to meet them. While Germany and Austria were doing their best to launch a diplomatic offensive with the intention of drawing China into the camp of the Allies, the Entente bloc also realized the weight of China, among which Britain and Russia were the most eager to side with China in the Entente bloc.

Long Qian picked up the shelf, in addition to receiving the ambassadors of Germany and the United States, the rest of the countries, including the British Empire's minister to China, which is recognized as the world's most powerful, were also blocked by Ouyang Zhongyi's slight illness as president.

At one point, the Chinese government and parliament thought that the president had sided with Germany and Austria. This rumor spread rapidly and unexpectedly, and when it comes to the high-ranking military delegation sent to Germany in early July, the rumor spreads even more, especially about the extremely generous conditions offered by Germany, which further increased the credibility of the rumor, the equipment of 30 divisions, the loan of 60 million yuan for free, the return of Qingdao and the two railway lines, and especially the exemption of the balance of the Gengzi indemnity. If these conditions were true, the parliament would probably approve of China's entry into the Allied side.

It is difficult to verify how the version of Germany's conditions for inducing China to join the German-Austrian side came out. At the briefing of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, when asked by the veteran Chinese expert Morisun, Assistant Foreign Minister Gu Weijun was vague and did not give an affirmative answer. This greatly increased the worries of Britain, France, and Russia. The ambassadors of the three countries were all forced to do their best to find out the cards of the Chinese. If China really joins the German-Austrian side, it will undoubtedly be a disaster for Britain, France and Russia. Today's China is not the Manchu Qing Dynasty, nor is it the founding of the People's Republic of China in the early 1910s, this huge country that is rejuvenating has almost endless human resources, and after initially having a relatively complete military industrial capacity, even if it is a complete blockade, she can expand 100 divisions. What would it be like if these 100 divisions were to be put into the war against Russia or to go south to Annam? Not to mention the Chinese army's southward march to Indochina, the northward advance alone was a great headache for Russia, and France was under tremendous military pressure from Germany. There was an urgent need for Russia to enter East Prussia to contain the German army. And all the military developments of Russia were directed against Germany and Austria, and the threat of China was never thought of. The forces of the Russian army in the Far East were extremely weak, it was impossible to defend the long Trans-Siberian Railway, and the Russian ambassador was not most worried about a Chinese attack on Vladivostok. It's about breaking through the middle. In case of loss of Irkutsk or Chita. The Russian Far East is finished!

A complete blockade of China will not be possible. The Americans have declared neutrality, and the ports of Shanghai and Guangzhou are filled with American merchant ships every day, and the fleet of the Sino-American joint venture Pacific Shipping cannot be attacked. This fleet could quite well break the British naval blockade. Even if German arms can be prevented from entering China, it will not help, as long as there is American equipment, the Chinese can continue to expand their military industrial capabilities, China does not lack resources, almost all the raw materials for weapons production China has. Moreover, it was simply impossible for Britain to mobilize a fleet to the Far East, and the German High Seas Fleet alone was enough for Britain to be busy.

Of course, you can rely on Japan. But even if Japan can defeat China, it will not be as easy as it was twenty years ago, and if a war is fought, the interests of Britain and France in China will be completely lost. The emergence of a great power in the Far East that is hostile to Britain and France is something that Britain and France must never see.

British Ambassador to China Zhu Erdian, French Ambassador to China Conde, and Russian Ambassador to China Kousowitz gathered at the British Embassy for several days for secret consultations to study countermeasures, without being able to meet China's top decision-makers. It was concluded that China could not be allowed to join Germany and Austria under any circumstances. The best outcome is that China is on the side of the Entente, and at the very least, China must be neutral!

Senate Speaker Hong Yuecheng, Speaker of the House of Representatives Liang Qichao, Premier Fang Shengyuan, Vice Premier Song Jiaoren, Defense Minister Wang Mingyuan, Police Minister Chen Chao, Supervision Minister Cao Minzhong, Minister of Culture and Education Cai Yuanpei, and even Ouyang Zhong, a veteran presidential chief of staff, have all become the targets of foreign envoys' visits, hoping to find out the final attitude of the President of the Republic of China from these powerful figures who have close political contacts with the President.

No one believed that President Longda, who was physically strong and always full of energy, would fall ill at this time.

U.S. Ambassador Reinsch has also become a hot figure in Beijing's diplomatic circles, with envoys, especially Britain and France, desperate to get the news they want.

Long Qian was indeed not sick, and the main reason why he did not see the envoys of various countries was that he did not have time. During this period, he basically soaked in the General Staff Headquarters, and studied military countermeasures day and night with the principal heads of the Ministry of National Defense, the General Staff, and the Joint Logistics Headquarters.

In the eyes of Situ Jun and others, it is very clever to use military exercises to assemble and deploy troops before the outbreak of war in Europe, and if military exercises are held in the hinterland of Shandong at this time, they will inevitably intensify the already tense situation.

The president's prediction has "come true", and a full-scale war broke out in Europe over an assassination, but will Japan really attack Qingdao? If China breaks out into conflict with Japan over Qingdao, will a full-scale war break out with Japan? There are more Japanese troops stationed in Tianjin, and there are more outside the Guan, and moreover, with Japan's naval superiority, it can wantonly attack all of China's coastal areas, and it is impossible to resist it with China's weak navy, so how can national defense be deployed? This situation made Situ Jun's General Staff extremely nervous, and while paying close attention to Japan's measures, he also formulated various plans to ensure that nothing went wrong.

However, Long Qian strictly ordered the Wehrmacht not to be mobilized and deployed, and all war exercises were confined to the giant sand table of the General Staff Operations Department. In order to ensure that Gyeonggi and Shenyang were not lost, Situ Jun calculated that at least one infantry division should be added to the garrison and the Northern Military Region, one to be deployed in Zhili and facing Tianjin as a backup for the 4th Division of the front-line troops, and the other to be added. The new line of Tongguò Beijing-Shenyang was transferred to the Xinmin line and added to the establishment of the Northern Military Region. The troops scheduled to be transferred are the 2nd Division of the Southwest Military Region, which is scheduled to be transferred to the garrison, and the newly formed 17th Division of the Southern Military Region will be transferred to the Northern Military Region.

At present, the Northern Military Region has jurisdiction over four divisions, the 5th, 9th, 12th, and 21st Divisions, and a large-scale independent cavalry division (the original independent cavalry brigade was expanded), and it has the strongest strength among the major military regions, of which the 5th Division is stationed in Kulun to guard the vast territory of Outer Mongolia, the Independent Cavalry Division is stationed in Guisui in Inner Mongolia, the 9th Division is stationed in Changchun, the 12th Division is stationed in Harbin, and the 21st Division is stationed in Shenyang. Besides. There are also two agricultural reclamation divisions in Heilongjiang. Among them, the 101st Agricultural Reclamation Division, which was established in 1910, has a total personnel of more than 25,000 personnel, is fully armed and fully organized, and 30 percent of its personnel are retired officers and men from the North, the garrison region, and the Central Military Region. The actual combat effectiveness is not weaker than that of a B division.

If only the Japanese military strength in South Manchuria is considered. The reinforced 21st Division should be able to cope. However, Japan occupies the good port of Arthur and has a strong sea transportation capacity, which can add at least one more division in 10~15 days. The 21st Division alone is not enough, Shenyang is already a key heavy industry base in the national five-year industrial plan, and the iron ore in Anshan, the coal in Fushun, the iron and steel industry in Shenyang and the military industry cannot be abandoned. This necessitates an increase in troops.

The 9th Division is one of the three major ace divisions of the National Defense Force, and is the backbone of the Northern Military Region, shouldering the responsibility of coordinating with the north and the south; if a Sino-Japanese conflict breaks out in South Manchuria, the 9th Division stationed in southern Jilin can reach the front line in Shenyang within seven days, and with the combat strength of this division, it is also possible to completely annihilate the 5th Division stationed in South Manchuria. However, Situ Jun considered that if Japan attacked China after joining the Entente bloc, it might induce the movement of the Russian Far Eastern Army, and the 9th Division must not move lightly, and there was a plan to continue to increase the number of troops to the Northern Military District.

Situ Jun believes that the danger of South Manchuria is greater than that of Qingdao. However, the president placed the main forces of the two ace divisions of the whole army in Shandong, ready to attack the Qingdao base.

In the Gyeonggi direction, there are two divisions, the 4th and the 10th, the 10th division was transferred north to the Jinzhou Shanhaiguan line in 1911, and only the 4th division remained in eastern Hebei. In addition, there is also a main brigade of the 1st Division, the 1st Brigade, which is stationed in Fengtai. The 1st Division was originally the main division of the Northwest Military Region, and in 1910, when responding to the Tangnu-Ulianghai crisis, it was transferred north to Inner Mongolia. In June, the headquarters of the 1st Division led the 2nd and 3rd Brigades south to Shandong to participate in the "Peace Fortress" exercise, leaving one of the 1st Brigade in place. The General Staff was worried that the Japanese army would land in Tianjin, and Beijing must not afford to lose, and that there was a redeployment of the 2nd Division to the north to fill the defense of Gyeonggi.

The problem of insufficient military strength was suddenly exposed. Because war may break out in both the Southeast Military Region and the Southern Military Region, troops cannot be transferred lightly, and the original three divisions of the Southwest Military Region (the 2nd, 13th, and 22nd Divisions) are being transferred to the old 2nd Division, and the main force of the 13th Division is being transferred into Tibet. The troops of the Central Military Region were fully prepared for the battle of Qingdao and could not move at all. However, the Northwest Military Region had only one 7th Division and the newly formed 19th Division (Frame Troops), and they could not be transferred, so Situ Jun had no choice but to transfer a new division of the Southern Military Region to the north, because he judged that the danger in the southeast was greater than that in the south.

After understanding the president's basic assumptions about the changes in the situation in East Asia in the outbreak of war in Europe, Situ Junjian quickly expanded the three divisions (17, 18, and 19) formed in 1913 and formed two more divisions. Otherwise, it will be difficult to cope with a full-scale war with Japan.

However, Long Qian's attention was still focused on the direction of Qingdao, and completely ignoring the danger in the southeast and south of Manchuria, he summoned the main generals of the navy and the Central Military Region who had secretly arrived in Beijing for several days to listen to the situation of the German troops in Qingdao as known to the Central Military Region, the State Security Administration, and the Military Intelligence Bureau, and to study the offensive and defensive problems in Qingdao.

On 8 August, Long Qian talked to some senior generals in the conference room of the War Department of the General Staff Headquarters on his views on the overall mobilization of military strength of the General Staff Headquarters.

"China will adopt a neutral attitude at this stage," Long Qian first clarified the country's foreign policy to the military generals, and the military generals all noticed Long Qian's key "at this stage" three words, "and Japan will undoubtedly join the side of the Entente because of the Anglo-Japanese alliance and its own interests, although they have not yet formally declared war on Germany and Austria." Japan would never let Qingdao go, because the German base was the only place where they could find an excuse to use force. The real purpose of Japan's attack on Qingdao was Shandong, and Shandong's military industry and oil had long been their coveted targets, and there was no need to doubt this. As for Liaonan, Gyeonggi, or the southeast, as long as Japan has not officially stated its intention to join the Allies, Japan will not move. The United States, Britain, France, and Russia will not let Japan move. Therefore, there is no need for the General Staff to transfer two new divisions to the north, but those three divisions can be replenished on the spot and their training strengthened. He stared at the map of the country on the wall, "If a conflict breaks out in South Manchuria, the North Manchurian troops can quickly move south, at least the 9th Division can go south for reinforcements, not to mention the 10th Division and the Independent Cavalry Division." There are enough troops of the Northern Military District! As for Shanghai or Guangzhou, Britain, the United States, France, and other countries will not let Japan come here, and I believe there is no danger. ”

Long Qian did not deny the transfer of the 2nd Division to Gyeonggi. In fact, he was still worried that there would be a shortage of troops after the outbreak of the war in Shandong, so there was nothing wrong with holding a division in his hand to prevent it.

Long Qian's decision was painful. But no one understood the pressure he was under. The history that once happened was only a shadow, and the Japanese seized Qingdao, and then took control of the Jiaoji line, and included Shandong in their sphere of influence. However, Gyeonggi and South Manchuria were calm, and there was no war against China.

But now the situation is different, the Republic is not the Republic of China, he has more than 20 well-equipped army divisions in his hands, as well as hundreds of thousands of reserves that have been "accumulated" in the past few years. Would that force China to take sides, and would the current state of the Japanese economy allow them to fight a full-scale war? The huge pressure is almost all on his shoulders, for the First World War, with China's strength, the role will be played in two or even three years! Not now!

"The president ......," said Zhang Yulin, deputy director in charge of operations, eagerly.

Long Qian waved his hand, "Don't say it, just do what I decide." If the war breaks out in Qingdao, the Central Military Region will rely on the forces in hand to annihilate the Japanese troops that have landed! Cut off their black hands once and for all! The northern, garrison, southeastern, and southern military regions should be on guard and must not move lightly. ”

"President, the diplomatic strategy for our country should be announced." Wang Mingyuan reminded, "There are many rumors from the outside world, and the parliament can't sit still. ”

"I know that. It doesn't matter, they are in a hurry, we are not in a hurry. ”

"President, the pressure on the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is extremely great, and Minister Tang is going crazy." Wang Mingyuan said, "Just today, Minister Tang was still asking about the military's attitude on the phone. ”

"Is Tang Shaoyi dizzy? When will the military decide on the country's major policies? Long Qian stared at the map, his face grim.

Wang Mingyuan didn't dare to speak.

"That's all! The General Staff Department set up an operational guidance group in Jinan, with Situ Jun personally in charge. Wang Mingyuan and Zhang Yulin stayed in Beijing. Let's do it. After finishing speaking, Long Qian said to Ouyang Zhong, "You contact Tang Shaochuan, if you can, you can have an hour at nine o'clock tomorrow morning, please bring Zhu Erdian here." ”

After Long Qian left, Wang Mingyuan, Cheng Erhu and others also left. In the end, Situ Jun arranged several things, especially the arrangement of the guidance group to go to Shandong, and the president named him to lead the team to Jinan, indicating that he basically believed that there was no danger in the north and Gyeonggi.

When he returned home, his wife Lu Bicheng greeted him, "Is it decided?" ”

"Yes, no." Situ Jun wiped his face with a wet towel, "The president has decided to be neutral." But on the military side...... "Situ Jun did not go on. Since getting married the year before last, Situ Jun has never talked about military affairs to his wife. In fact, there is no need to keep secrets, and the wife of the head of the Secretariat of the President's Office is the most senior secret-related personnel, and she has no less secrets than Situ Jun.

"I guessed right. With the shrewdness of the president, where will he take sides now? Since you are neutral, you can't fight, what are you worried about? ”

"But the president doesn't think so. I'm going on a business trip, you get ready. Departure tomorrow. ”

"You want to go on a business trip at this time? Where to go? Lu Bicheng was puzzled.

"Don't ask."

"Have you eaten then?"

"Nope."

Lu Bicheng personally cooked for her husband, she saw her husband's worries, but she couldn't ask. The husband whom the president introduced to him was so good that he could not find fault with it, but he always had a hard time hiding his thoughts, at least he could see at a glance that he was too lacking in the city government for his position. (To be continued......)