Chapter 332 332 Rayugoslavia
Qi Yiming did not interfere much in the drastic changes in Eastern Europe, and relatively speaking, he focused more on the domestic economy. After the first few years of adaptation and preparation, the Celestial Empire's economic growth began to grow by leaps and bounds at an unimaginable rate. Regardless of the undervaluation of the RMB exchange rate (mainly for the convenience of exports), the amount of GDP in US dollars, the economic scale of the current Celestial Empire, Qi Yiming, roughly estimated that it should be the size of China's economy before the financial turmoil of 97 years in the future.
Although Qi Yiming did not attend the event, he already felt how huge the increase in China's import and export trade was after the resumption of GATT membership. Originally, with some advantageous products, Chinese goods have already entered the markets of many countries, but now they have obtained preferential treatment of "tariff concessions" in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, and some people of insight in the West have begun to worry that Chinese goods will seriously impact their national industries.
Due to the serious undervaluation of the RMB currency, the stable price level, the sharp rise in the wages of urban and rural residents and other compound factors, China's state-owned and private enterprises that have received the technical support of Qi Yiming's Red Police Base have taken a lot of advantage in terms of quality and advanced commodity consumption characteristics. Many enterprises' export goods, such as a car, may only sell for 10,000 or 20,000 yuan in China, but at least 10,000 or 20,000 US dollars abroad, that is to say, the export price has increased at least eight times. Even so, the price of Japanese cars is about the same as or even slightly lower.
On the other hand, in order to earn foreign exchange through exports and increase the competitiveness of domestic commodity exports, the country has always maintained the policy of export tax rebates, which has also been criticized by many Western countries, but it has been maintained for decades, and there is still this thing before Qi Yiming crosses. On the plane, Qi Yiming decisively stopped the export tax rebate.
If you think about it, it is clear that a car factory that makes a car and sells it for 10,000 or 20,000 yuan in its own country is at least 100% of the profit margin (cost profit margin, that is, profit divided by cost), and sells it to the United States and Western European countries, and the sales amount is eight times. In this case, there is nothing to say about the state to charge export tariffs of more than 100 percentage points.
Moreover, the more industrial technology and technology threshold products are more profitable, such as ordinary light industry textiles, although the profits are also considerable, but there is no such huge profit as selling automobiles, buying machinery, and selling ships. In addition, it should be mentioned that the enterprises with this level of technology are basically large state-owned enterprises, and after these enterprises have paid their wages and benefits, they have retained their own development funds, and a large amount of dividends and profits are handed over to the super large shareholder of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission. This money has become the national fiscal revenue, and it has been reinvested in a series of undertakings that are beneficial to the public, such as the construction of high-speed railways, the construction of port facilities, and education and medical care.
Qi Yiming understands quite well that this situation cannot last long, about a year or two, and when the ghosts find out that someone is making a fortune in silence, they will definitely force China to sign something similar to the Plaza Agreement just like Japan. Naturally, China will not have the same choice as Japan, and even after adjusting the exchange rate and other policies, these companies will still be competitive. As long as there are no malicious trade barriers, even if the currency is rationalized, they will not be too affected.
In addition, this kind of excessively undervalued exchange rate is also not healthy, which is conducive to exports, and the country's self-sufficiency is relatively strong, so there is no need to think about imports, but healthy and reasonable trade cannot make the surplus too large. On the other hand, Qi Yiming has witnessed a huge trade surplus coupled with some other drivers in the West, which has made the country suffer huge inflationary pressures while developing rapidly.
In addition, with the development of the economy, domestic resources will certainly not be enough, and if the value of the local currency is too low, importing iron ore, copper ore, oil and gas, etc., will also increase their own production costs, and speculating up the market price of resources in the world will be even more destructive to the economy of the world and the world. China is not the only one who eats in this cauldron, and if the pot is lifted, it will also be hungry.
Therefore, Qi Yiming's plan is to rely on the super dividends of the first few years of recovery, and at the same time resist the pressure of the West until no one is willing to play with him, and then adjust the more reasonable exchange rate. With the efforts of the past few years, it can be made into a golden period of a country's primitive capital accumulation, and perhaps it only takes about 1995 for the country's economic aggregate to reach the level of 2005-2010 before his crossing. When the time comes, the Celestial Empire, which has a bulging pocket, will naturally be able to gain huge influence in the economy.
However, even if the economy has not yet reached the level of absolute strength at this time, the energy of China's economy has already begun to be revealed. According to the forecast of the National Bureau of Statistics, by 1990, the country's per capita GDP can exceed 10,000 RMB, although the calculation of US dollars is about 1,000 yuan, but the actual standard of living is likely to be close to the level of about 2000.
Economic statistics do not explain too much, and one event that can explain the problem is that China, which has a little surplus of money from the United States and Japan, has begun to prepare for RMB aid.
This kind of seemingly unreliable but actually very realistic thing is all in unison, and the target of assistance is not the third Asian, African, and Latin American countries, but the powerful country of Eastern Europe -- Yugoslavia.
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Lai Zhenping flew on a C929 plane and arrived in Belgrade as an official of China's Ministry of Commerce. Before he got off the plane, he was still constantly reviewing the information, although as a talented Red Police economic and political spy, his ability and insight are very good, but whenever he deals with major incidents, he is no different from ordinary people, and he has to make a lot of preparations.
Yugoslavia's economy, like many other countries in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, reached a dead end. Yugoslavia in Tito's era was undoubtedly a country that the Chinese longed for and admired, and a series of famous films such as "Walter Defends Sarajevo" and "The Bridge" made many Chinese people from the fifties to the seventies have a special Yugoslav plot. After the beginning of reform and opening up, a considerable number of people are studying how to learn from Yugoslavia's economic development and get rid of China's predicament of poverty and backwardness.
Because of its break with the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia became a "traitor to the socialist camp" and a "revisionist country", and embarked on a path different from that of the Soviet system. Tito's time was a system of decentralization and autonomy from the central government to local governments, allowing a certain amount of private economy and allowing people to own private housing. By 1976, 36% of the country's population owned their own car, every 1. 8 families own a TV for each of the 2. One family has a refrigerator, all children between the ages of 7 and 15 receive eight years of free compulsory education, have their own health welfare system, and have a literacy rate of 91 per cent. It can be said that what the Chinese have gained in the thirty years of reform and opening up, or even what they have not obtained, the Yugoslavs had in the seventies.
But Tito's system also has hidden dangers, first of all, his decentralization system has caused the weakening of the central authority, and decentralization itself is not wrong, but if there are too many of them, some things are easy to cause problems if they are not collected in their hands. For example, Yugoslavia has more than 20 million people, but there are many ethnic groups with very different races, beliefs and cultures, and these ethnic groups live in different regions, and their levels of development are uneven, and there is no dominant ethnic group, so in fact their interests are intertwined.
For example, Milosevic, who was later accused of being the executioner of genocide, has been promoting his nationalism since he came to power in 1987, "Grand Serbism", and the policy of national reconciliation and integration advocated by Tito cannot be stopped by the central government because Milosevic has enough power.
For example, Slovenia is unwilling to support Macedonia and other backward regions because of its developed economy, and withholds aid and subsidies to these areas, while Macedonia and other backward regions resentful of the central government and other regions because they cannot obtain funds to maintain development and survival.
In Lai Zhenping's own analysis, there are two other important factors that led to Yugoslavia's predicament: First, it is precisely because the economy is good and the residents are rich that the local people have a relatively large demand for life development and even luxury consumer goods, and Yugoslavia needs to borrow money to supply the consumption of its own residents. Moreover, this growth in consumption does not match the country's industrial growth and economic growth, and after the oil crisis in the seventies and the economic contraction in the eighties, Yugoslavia's economic development has been seriously dampened.
Another important factor is the cold arrow of the West, originally Yugoslavia joined the International Monetary Fund in order to better develop its economy, and was ready to borrow money to revitalize the economy, but in the end they borrowed more and more poor, and let the West reach into their own country. The Yugoslavs, who were influenced by the West, began to deny the ideology of their country, especially in the state of poor economic conditions, and became even more dissatisfied. The West, on the other hand, relied on various ways to oppress Yugoslavia and make a "reform method" that would push Yugoslavia into the abyss.
In Yugoslavia at the end of the eighties, the people's incomes were declining, their living standards were declining, and because of the lack of financial resources, there were not many consumer goods on the market, and in addition to the accumulation of more and more calls for democratization and ********, Yugoslavia also showed signs of return.
It was at this time that Yugoslav Prime Minister Markovic visited the United States in the hope of receiving American assistance, and the Americans were "generously" willing to give it on the condition that wage prices were frozen, the currency was devalued, the public economy was gradually dismantled, and the activities of foreign capital were freer.