London, 10 Downing Street, the official residence of the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

Prime Minister Asquith was pale, clasped his hands, and his gray-blue eyes were fixed on Home Secretary Winston Churchill (35), who had just finished his report.

"In other words, unless we rushed into the Chinese embassy to search at that time, it would have been impossible to find out who was behind it now?"

Churchill spread his hands: "Your Excellency, Prime Minister, exactly. ”

Asquith fell into deep thought, and the room suddenly became deathly silent.

Four months ago, a few days after the funeral of King Edward VII, three Chinese generals who had been secretly kept as "precious pets" since the time of Prime Minister James were assassinated in a specially arranged secret residence outside London – all three of their heads disappeared without a trace.

For the London police, these three people did not exist in the first place, so it was not their turn to bother, Asquith had to order Churchill to secretly investigate the matter through special channels - time passed, Churchill finally submitted the investigation report today, but gave such a helpless conclusion.

"Your Excellency Prime Minister......" Secretary of the Navy McKenna carefully broke the silence, "I believe that His Excellency the Secretary of State has done his best, and the matter has come to this point, and there is no chance of recovery, so it is better to leave it at that, anyway, there are only a very few people who know about their existence, and it is absolutely impossible to divulge secrets." ”

Asquith sneered: "If it is really 'absolutely impossible to leak secrets', I'm afraid those three gentlemen will not lose their heads so easily." ”

But didn't their wish come true? The devil in their eyes, the emperor who had already been buried in the earth, did not live a few days longer than them, and their souls should be comforted. McKenna said.

Churchill shook his head: "It seems to me that things should be seen the other way around, and it was the emperor's deathbed wish that came true." Seeing the head of a traitor before he dies is so that he can go on his way with peace of mind - in order to satisfy the wish of His Majesty, the most important of all, they did at the risk of causing a serious diplomatic incident, and their Emperor was indeed the supreme dictator of the empire, as Mr. D said. ”

"The military aristocracy, the political oligarchs, the industrial and commercial plutocracy, the powerful emperor, it was the German Empire of the East. What worries me most now is that the two German Reichs will join hands and attack us on both sides. The worried look on Asquith's face was impossible and unnecessary.

"The Germans have taken advantage of our wariness of China, and have achieved many undivided benefits with our acquiescence and even cooperation, but we will never be able to satisfy the greedy appetite of the other side. They want everything, they are jealous of us, they are jealous of our empire, they will not give up until we are dismembered, every step we take back, they want to take two steps further, and now they finally have a showdown, look at that fourth naval bill, the British Empire can no longer endure it! The more McKenna spoke, the more agitated he became, and he almost slapped the table.

In July 1910, the German Reichstag, under the unanimous impetus of the government and the opposition, passed the long-awaited Navy Act No. 4, which stipulated that, on the basis of the completion of the 1908 Supplementary Navy Act, four dreadnought battleships would be built each year from 1912 to 1914, and two dreadnought battleships would be built each year from 1915 to 1920, so that by the time the entire plan was completed, Germany would have a huge fleet of 36 dreadnoughts!

McKenna paused for a moment and continued to scold: "The Chinese are not good things, they are as cunning as the Germans, first the Gurkhas, then Afghanistan, breaking two huge openings in the 'Hadrian's Wall' that we rely on to protect India, no, not just the gap, that wall has actually been shattered, and India may face a second Babur (Note 1) conquest at any time!" What did we get back for this? It's two million plans for the Chinese! A standing field army of more than a million people, and a naval fleet of no less than a million tons, what do they want to do? Does self-defense require such a strong force? ”

In October 1910, following the passage of the Fourth Naval Act by Germany, the Chinese Congress also passed their 1910 Naval Act, which planned to build a fleet of 30 dreadnought battleships by 1925, and during this period, it also planned to build four dreadnought battleships for the allied Japan—according to the 1896 Covenant, the main naval strength of this small partner in wartime would be included in the sequence of the East Asian Combined Fleet led by China.

Churchill lit a cigar: "They are inciting the natives to break away from the European empires and join their so-called 'Eastern civilizations,' that is, into their self-dominated system of East Asian alliances." They are playing nationalist tricks, sooner or later they will burn themselves, but before that, they will burn us first, and there is a wave of secession from the mother country in our Asian territories, and it is difficult to say how much of it is Chinese......"

"The British Empire, though strong, is powerless to confront two Germanys at the same time, and since it can no longer concede to the other, we need new weights to tip the scales on our side." Chancellor of the Exchequer Lloyd George – the future Prime Minister – said leisurely as he wiped his monocle with a handkerchief.

"Do you want to take the Franco-Russian entente one step further?" Secretary of War Haldane said a little indistinctly as he took his finely decorated pipe in his mouth.

Lloyd George disagreed: "That has to be done, but the strength of France and Russia alone is only enough to deal with this Germany in Europe, and we need to be able to suppress the strength of that Germany in Asia." ”

Churchill gave a contemptuous expression: "Americans? They stalled, trying to sleep on the accomplishments of the Roosevelt era. Just last year, the U.S. Navy was the second largest Navy in the world, and after this year, it will gradually be left behind by Germany and China. Roosevelt left them with valuable accomplishments and grand goals, think of that terrifying plan of the Two Oceans Fleet, which had 48 dreadnoughts by 1927! Nearly scared our Sir Lancesdown to tears. Looking at the current U.S. Navy, what has the esteemed Mr. Taft done since he came to power? ”

As Churchill said, in fact, at the beginning of this century, the U.S. Navy was only the sixth largest fleet in the world. By 1909, it was second only to the Royal Navy. Sir Lancedownne, the former British Lord of the Admiralty, once commented that, from a British point of view, "it has not yet been understood by our countrymen...... If the Americans choose the path of being prepared to pay the price – and they can easily pay that price – they will be able to gradually build up a navy, first equal to ours and then surpass ours. ”

"And," Lansdowne concluded, "I'm not sure they won't." ”

Unlike Lansdowne, Roosevelt was not sure what the Americans would do, and by the time he left office in 1909, the future of the American fleet no longer depended on him, but on his successor.

In his inaugural address, his successor, President Taft, expressed concern about the situation in the Far East and hinted that the U.S. Navy aims to be an effective force ready to focus on challenges in any direction, especially in the Pacific.

However, in the subsequent practical policy implementation, the Taft administration not only failed to curb the expansion of Germany and China in the Pacific by diplomatic means, but also weakened the momentum of the vigorous development of the navy since the Roosevelt era.

At this time, Lloyd George had no choice but to smile bitterly: "Winston, there is no way, only the United States has that kind of strength." ”

"But why should the Americans listen to us? The gentleman will say, no, we will solve the problem not by warships, but by the universal justice and morality of mankind, we want peace, let the war roll away! Harilua! Churchill exclaimed, not without sarcasm, in the tone of the Americans.

"In the face of real threats and interests, sooner or later the Americans will be smart. And, personally, I'd rather give the entire Pacific Ocean to the United States than China and Germany to occupy even a single reef. Lloyd George is clearly not joking.

Prime Minister Asquith narrowed his eyes: "So, the British Empire is really to the point where it can't defend the Pacific Territories?" ”

McKenna reluctantly spread his hands and said, "Your Excellency, Prime Minister, it is a pity that this seems to be the case now. If we can't convince those two ambitious empires to abandon their naval plans, we will have to choose between Europe and Asia in the future, and it is clear that we must give priority to Europe. ”

"Moreover, the European question is already very tricky," added War Secretary Haldane with his pipe, "and Russia has been hesitant for fear of being caught between China and Germany." They are frightened by the Chinese and need to see hope, financial and military aid is not enough to restore their confidence, and the United States will join them to make up their minds that the Entente needs the United States. ”

"But does the United States need us? Even if he gives the Pacific Ocean to the United States, is he really willing to ask for it? Churchill deliberately accentuated his tone.

"The United States needs interests, and we have the greatest interests, our country and the United States are each other's largest trading partners, we and France still have vast colonies that can open their markets to the United States, China and Germany do not have such bargaining chips, and their high tariffs keep Americans out. We only need to adjust our economic and trade policies slightly, link the US economy more closely with our economy, and at the same time try to isolate the economic and trade ties between the United States and China and Germany to the greatest extent, and the United States will eventually come to our side. In the final analysis, the liberal United States is the ally we can rely on in the war compared to those two militaristic Germanys. Lloyd George spoke firmly, as if the doomed future had been repeated before his eyes repeatedly.

His Excellency the Chancellor of the Exchequer could not have predicted that a few days later, on October 18, 1910, Kaiser Wilhelm II would arrive in the Moroccan port of Agadir aboard the Leopard, where France regarded it as something in its mouth, proclaiming himself "the naval commander of the Atlantic" and saying that "Germany will never give up its natural right to seek living space for its people" and that "the German navy should play a more active role in exercising this legitimate right......

Five years later, Europe is once again on the brink of war.

"The outbreak of the second Moroccan crisis marked the complete bankruptcy of Britain's policy of compromise with Germany, and from then on, Britain began to try to build a four-nation entente system of Britain, France, Russia and the United States in order to continue to maintain its colonial empire in all corners of the earth......"

——History of Modern International Relations, 1950, Zhonghua Book Company