Section XVI Beijing Conference
The enigmatic events of July, while put to rest, demonstrated the Interim Government's weakness of control over the situation. After the failure of the Nihwell offensive, Britain and France, who were struggling to wait for the arrival of American troops in Europe, became worried about Russia.
After three years of fighting, the main force against the German army on the Western Front was undoubtedly the French army, although Britain gradually increased its investment in the army, acting as the main force in some battlefields and battles, but the position of the French army was irreplaceable. After the Nivelle offensive, the French army showed signs of instability, and some teams openly disobeyed, refused to carry out combat missions, and shouted slogans of refusing war and demanding an armistice, which greatly alarmed Britain and France. The new commander-in-chief of the French army, General Petain, had to adopt an iron-fisted policy, arresting and executing hundreds of officers, and finally prosecuting him. But the military hierarchy admits that the potential for war has been exhausted, and that there is a complete possibility of falling before Germany. The total population of France is far less than that of Germany, and in terms of human resources, France is far inferior to its opponents, and the battle loss ratio of Britain and France on the Western Front has always been higher than that of the German army, so that the French army has shown signs of "not being able to hold on".
Fortunately, the United States entered the war.
After the July Incident broke out, Britain, France, the United States, and Italy held a seminar in London, focusing on the Russian question. According to the summary of intelligence from all sides, the situation in Russia is quite dangerous, and the Russian army's war-weariness is becoming more and more serious. Secretary of State Lansing, who attended the meeting on behalf of President Wilson, said that the first US force would be deployed to France no earlier than November, and that due to the shipping problem, it would take even longer for the US military to be assembled enough to break the strategic balance of power in Western Europe. I'm afraid it will have to wait until 1918. Even if the U.S. military were to deploy 100,000 men a month from November (an astonishing rate, especially given the threat of uncleared German submarines), it would not be until next spring that a large force could be assembled on the scale of a campaign.
The military leaders of Britain and France were secretly extremely skeptical about the combat effectiveness of the American army, and it was a big question mark whether a hastily mobilized army could fight in a country that had been at peace for decades since the Civil War. However, according to the American plan, more than 3 million troops will be mobilized, and even if this force is weak in combat, the Germans will be scared to death by their numbers alone.
Time was on the side of the Entente. The key to the final victory is to survive these months. The premise was that there were no major problems on the Russian front, and that in the event of a Russian withdrawal from the war, millions of German troops would be transferred back to Western Europe. It is entirely possible to turn the tables before the arrival of the US military.
But the Germans certainly don't sleep. They will also realize that time is not good for them. Before the American troops arrived in Western Europe in large numbers, the Germans must do something, otherwise they will be completely finished. They will definitely attack, seeking the capital to force the Entente to armistice the war. Where to attack? The Italian front is not to be considered. Where are the main Austrians. Austria-Hungary was extremely weak. There was no force to launch a decisive offensive, and, even if forced Italy to surrender. Nor does it solve the underlying problem. In order for the Allies to win, Britain and France had to be brought to their knees, but under the present circumstances, Germany could not achieve this with the strength of the Western Front. According to statistics, the ratio of German forces to the Anglo-French forces on the Western Front was two to three, and they did not have that strength. But there is only one possibility, and that is for Germany to solve the problem on the Eastern Front. In that case, Germany would be able to overwhelm Britain and France in terms of strength and weapons, thus ending the war before the American army joined.
Although the Russian army has lost at least three million troops since the beginning of the war, relying on its vast depth and abundant human resources, it is impossible for the German army to completely defeat Russia. However, the rapid collapse of the Romanov dynasty and the successive political turmoil in Russia brought about uncertainties, and some political factions in Russia openly raised the slogan of withdrawing from the war, which made Britain and France extremely worried.
The February Revolution was something that Britain, France, and the United States were happy to see, and the fall of the Romanov dynasty was in line with the political standards of Britain, France, and the United States. They advertised the war against Germany and Austria as a just war for democracy against autocracy, but there was a flaw in this propaganda, and that was Russia. No one can say that Russia under the Romanov dynasty was a democracy. Therefore, as soon as the Russian Provisional Government was established, Britain, France, the United States, and other countries immediately recognized it. But the July events in Petersburg were not what the Entente wanted to see, which is why the London Conference was convened.
The central issue of the London Conference was Russia, and the conclusion was that Russia must be allowed to hold on. After the United States joined, the economic strength of the Entente countries had completely overwhelmed the Allies, and materials were not a problem, but the key was military. The political and military strategists at the meeting came to the unanimous conclusion that China had become a key factor in Russia's problems. With the political situation in Russia still uncertain, only by letting the Chinese continue to project troops into Russia until they can independently undertake the process of fighting against Germany. The British and French were amazed by the appearance of the Chinese Expeditionary Force in Russia, and they showed strength beyond expectations, as long as the total strength of the Chinese Expeditionary Force reached 1 million men, it could basically guarantee the safety of the Eastern Front.
The meeting was decided to be headed by French Prime Minister Georges Murphy, nicknamed "Tiger". Clemenceau and U.S. Secretary of State Lansing made a joint visit to Russia to cheer up the faltering Kerensky Provisional Government and agree on military and economic assistance to Russia to stabilize the rule of the Kerensky government. But they must first go to Beijing to inform Beijing of the contents of the London conference and to facilitate Beijing's continued military investment in Russia.
A joint foreign visit by a prime minister and a secretary of state of another is rare, but it is only natural in this way. Originally, Britain and France should have come forward, but the United States had already come from behind and became the main force in the war against Germany, so it was decided that France and the United States would jointly visit Russia and China, because France could fully represent Britain.
Although the London meeting was held in secret, the rumors still leaked. The Japanese government entrusted its ambassador to Britain to propose to the leaders of the Entente that the Japanese Army was willing to put Russia in order to help Russia stabilize its front, and that the first phase of the army would be no less than 4 divisions, and the final strength would not be less than 10 divisions.
The Japanese did not raise the issue of military spending, and appeared to be generous and sincere.
The Japanese finally realized the benefits of going to war. This news is good news for Britain and France, and it increases their weight to "blackmail" China. But the United States has a negative attitude towards this. The United States already felt threatened by the Japanese navy, especially after they seized several German colonies in the Pacific by declaring war on Germany. Moreover, Russia and Japan have a vendetta, and the Russo-Japanese War must have left a huge shadow on the hearts of the Russians. History has long proven that without the Russo-Japanese War, there would have been no revolution of 1905 in Russia, no Duma and many political parties, no February Revolution and the current situation. In this case. The Russians must not have wanted to see Japanese troops enter Russia.
For the doubts of the Americans. Britain and France first negotiated with China, and if China was willing to meet the demands of the London Conference, it would not have to pay attention to Japan, and naturally there would be no need to convince Russia. But. If the Chinese offer too high. For the supreme interests of the Entente. I can't help but take advantage of Japan.
On 10 August, Clemenceau and Lancen arrived in Beijing on the same warship. Chinese Premier Fang Shengyuan held a grand welcoming ceremony at the Congress Square. That evening, President Long Qian attended a grand welcome banquet held at the State Guest House for the US and French dignitaries. Next. Formal talks were held at the State Guest House, attended by the Chinese side, including Long Qian and below, Premier Fang Shengyuan, Defense Minister Feng Guozhu, Chief of General Staff Situ Jun, and Foreign Minister Tang Shaoyi. Prime Minister Clemenceau first briefed President Long Qian on the London Conference, and Secretary of State Lansing briefed on the mobilization of the United States. Clemenceau, on behalf of the main Allied countries, made a request to China to increase the strength of the Russian front, and Clemenceau proposed to at least double the number of troops to Russia within two months to take over the main front of the Russian army. On the basis of the consensus reached at the Beijing Conference, the Chinese side sent dignitaries to Petersburg with them to negotiate the relevant details with the Russian Provisional Government. Clemenceau frankly admitted that in the current situation, the Chinese army is more reliable than the Russian army.
Clemenceau and Lansing did not mention the Japanese demands.
But this question was raised by Long Qian, and it was put in the first place, "We have been informed of the news about Japan, and on behalf of the Chinese government, I solemnly declare that China will never allow Japan to interfere in Russian affairs. It was an untrustworthy country that did nothing but rob them on fire. If Japan insists on going its own way, China will have to take drastic measures, including the withdrawal of all its troops from Russia. He said to Clemenceau and Lansing, "I am a soldier at heart, and I don't like hypocritical diplomatic language, so I beg your pardon." The basic attitude of China was that in a just war against the Allies, Great Britain, France, and the United States of America could only choose between Japan and China! This is a matter of principle and non-negotiable. There is no need for us to dwell on this issue until we have a clear commitment from you. ”
"Of course," Clemenceau glanced at Lancen, "we trust our Chinese allies, and if China can fulfill its obligations, why should Japan participate?" ”
"Do American friends have the same attitude?"
"Yes. The position of the United States of America is completely clear. Lansing nodded, "President Wilson paid tribute to the contributions of China's allies. The President hopes that the Republic of China will continue to play a greater role in our common cause. ”
"Can you represent the British government? Britain is a traditional ally of Japan. ”
"Totally representable. George. The Government led by Mr. Lloyd has a very similar position to the French Government. ”
"Then the problem is simple." Long Qian smiled and said, "I personally believe that the dawn of war has appeared, and we cannot afford to fall short. China can increase its troops. However, due to logistical and other factors, the support of allies is needed. In addition, the situation in Russia is more complicated, and it is necessary to take into account the occurrence of various scenarios. In the case of Russia, we may have a more detailed picture. If the aid is in place, our army can even launch an offensive of a strategic nature on the Russian front to contain the transfer of German forces to the western front. ”
Diplomacy emphasizes reciprocity, and it is not rude for Long Qian to hand over the negotiation to Fang Shengyuan.
Clemenceau knew that China would raise the issue of aid, there was no doubt about it. France also needed aid, three years of war had exhausted its forces and drained the blood of the French. It was unrealistic to rely on France and Britain to provide direct aid to China, and in the spring of last year, before China entered the war, the Allies had already offered extremely high prices, including the waiver of customs that had been controlled for many years, including the suspension of China's historical indemnities, including the abolition of extraterritoriality...... The Boston Accords have enabled China to obtain a huge amount of loans. If the Chinese offer too high, they will not agree. Japan's cards are not invalid and can still be played. Even the United States should adhere to the strategy of Europe first and then Asia, and should not give China more supplies. But he can't raise this issue now, and it depends on how China does it.
But the first issue Fang Shengyuan raised in the following talks was not economic and aid, but the commitment of the United States, Britain and France to China's security, especially maritime security. Fang Shengyuan pointed out that there was a precedent in Japan, in 1914. Japan relied on its naval superiority to invade China. In the case of China sending the main forces of the Wehrmacht (including the Air Force) to Russia. It could not ignore its own national defense and security, especially the security of Northeast China, which had become the rear base of the expeditionary force, because according to the Portsmouth Agreement, Japan still had a regular army in South Manchuria and controlled the railway from Lushun to Shenyang. This already poses a real threat to China. Other than that. China is also concerned about Japan's demands on the safety of China's coastal cities and maritime transportation. At present, Shanghai, Tianjin and other cities have become China's industrial towns, undertaking a large number of arms manufacturing tasks. And sea transportation is becoming more and more onerous, and China cannot ignore the blockade strategy of the powerful Japanese navy.
For this. China demanded that the Entente countries endorse this, and that in the event of a new military conflict between China and Japan, at least the United States and France should unconditionally side with China in response to Japanese aggression.
Clemenceau and Lansing agreed without hesitation. The current national policy of the United States in the Far East is to support China and suppress Japan, while France's interests are in Southeast Asia and have basically nothing to do with Japan's interests. Moreover, this was nothing more than a blank check, and it was impossible for the French army to participate in the military confrontation between China and Japan. However, Clemenceau pointed out that Japan was also a member of the Entente, and that Japan had no reason to strike militarily against China, and that with Japan's current army strength, it was by no means an opponent of China. As for maritime security, because it involves the overall strategy of the Entente, France, as well as Britain and the United States, will not allow any mistakes, and China can rest assured that this is true.
This is just the opening statement. The latter is China's specific requirements.
The first is to demand that Britain, France, and the United States bear 50 percent of the war expenses of the follow-up troops of the expeditionary force, and Fang Shengyuan frankly admitted that with China's current national strength, it cannot afford to fight a million-strong army thousands of miles away. Since the United States and France have proposed to let China double the strength of the expeditionary force, it is to send another 30 divisions. China has gone all out in its war against Russia last year, and it really can't afford such a large war spending.
This is not an overstatement. China theoretically did not ask Britain, France, and the United States for a penny in its war against Germany in 1916. Whether it is a loan or a war bond, it is a debt that needs to be repaid. However, if China sends more troops to Russia, it only proposes that Britain, France, and the United States bear half of the expenses, which is really not excessive. Therefore, Clemenceau and Lansing agreed to China's request without discussion, and agreed that the United States would pay for the sale.
But Fang Shengyuan has a third requirement, not money, but technology. Fang Shengyuan said: Since the weapons standards of China's armed forces are different from those of other countries, it is necessary to expand China's arms production capacity, and this will require Britain, the United States, and France to transfer more technology free of charge. He drew up a list of 101 items involving aviation, ships, chemicals, electronics, and optics, all of which are key technologies that China urgently needs to master.
Obviously, China had long anticipated the dependence of the Entente on it, otherwise it would not have been so well prepared.
Ransing and Clemenceau shared the sense of China's ambition for industrialization. If China is just asking for money, they will not be embarrassed, but the transfer of these technologies needs to be carefully studied, they represent strength, they represent the future. The impact of the emergence of a large industrialized country in the Far East on the world situation must be fully assessed. Therefore, Clemenceau and Lansing politely rejected Fang Shengyuan's request for the transfer of technology, claiming that some of the technology was not in the hands of the state, but was owned by the enterprise group, and therefore could not be agreed.
Fang Shengyuan said politely, fully understanding the position of the two countries, but this is about this war, and God knows how many years it will be fought? We are willing to fulfill our obligations, but we can only do our best.
The meeting was put on hold. China can afford to wait, but France can't afford to wait. Clemenceau, after careful consideration, proposed a proposal that could be handled flexibly? For example, set up a special group to study the sources of these technologies one by one, and then identify? But the increase in troops cannot wait, because the situation in Russia is more dangerous. Lansing proposed another idea, that is, to form joint ventures to supplement and expand China's arms industry, so that it would be easy to convince American consortiums.
Fang Shengyuan accepted the proposal of France and the United States and demanded the signing of an economic and technical agreement to define the principles, which is a necessary condition for China to fulfill its new obligations.
As a result, the three sides agreed to immediately set up a working group, and France, Britain, and the United States sent expert groups to China to jointly discuss the issue of technical assistance and joint ventures to China. To this end, after a day of consultations, the three parties drew up a secret agreement to define the principles of technology transfer and joint ventures.
On 13 August, Long Qian hosted a banquet at the presidential palace to entertain Clemenceau and Lansing, and expressed general satisfaction with the results of the talks. It was decided that Premier Fang Shengyuan would go to Russia to meet with the Russian Provisional Government on behalf of himself, together with Clemenceau and Lansing, to coordinate war-related matters. Long Qian pointed out that in view of the special situation in Russia, it is very important to control the main fronts and cities, especially the western and northwestern fronts, and that if Petersburg and Moscow are not chaotic, Russia will not be chaotic. The direction of the use of the Chinese Expeditionary Force was vaguely proposed. But Clemenceau and Lanceing could not say anything about this, believing that the Russians would never hand over the security of Moscow and Petersburg to the Chinese, but only that they valued Mr. President's construction and brought it to the Provisional Government to study. At parting, Long Qian handed Lansing a personal letter to President Wilson, who forwarded it to President Wilson and promised that in a month at the latest, the third group of troops would be ready to leave for Russia, with no less than three corps. (To be continued......)