The black clouds rolled and fell low, burying all of London in a dim twilight.

In the official office at No. 10 Downing Street, several gentlemen in suits and leather shoes sat quietly in their seats, and the crystal pendant on the ceiling illuminated the faces of each of them with its soft halo. John, who is sharp and resolute, like a sharp sword? Fisher, the kind and calm Secretary of War Richard? Haldane, and the owner of this house, Prime Minister Henry, who has the demeanor of an absolute aristocratic gentleman? Campbell? Sir Bannerman. However, their faces at the moment are full of gloom or melancholy.

Two months earlier, the Royal Navy had announced its annual shipbuilding budget for 1907, which would include the construction of three more St. Vincent-class battleships and two Invincible-class battlecruisers before the end of this year. However, to London's disbelief, Germany continued their equally terrifying shipbuilding speed last year, laying the keel for five new capital ships like dumplings! The direct consequence of the German industrial machine starting to run at full capacity is that the gap in the number of dreadnoughts between the two sides has not been narrowed in the slightest after the implementation of the shipbuilding plan this year; At present, the ratio of the number of completed and under construction in Britain and Germany is 15 to 17, and Britain, which dominates the seas for more than the 3rd century, has been overwhelmed by another country in terms of the number of capital ships for the first time!

Widely publicized by the media and newspapers, the Royal Navy's State of the Union address, which was intended to reveal the current state of British and German dreadnought power, succeeded in causing a sensation throughout England: in cafes, racetracks, pubs, and even in Parliament, there was a furious roar of exhaustion and righteous indignation; And the warmongers, led by a certain aristocratic fat man, who are afraid that the world will not be chaotic, are running around the country. He vigorously called for a declaration of war on Germany and preached the idea of a so-called "Copenhagen-style strike" to completely crush the German navy. This far-right wave of war has also gained tremendous support in Britain. So much so that every time the House of Representatives meets. During this period, an extremely strong element of war has been brewed.

However, for real decision-makers, these simple, crude and irresponsible rhetoric is pure nonsense.

At present Britain was not prepared for war at all, and there would be no advantage in going to war with Germany alone; Once a war breaks out, the final result will inevitably be that Britain with sea power as the main power and Germany with land power as the main force will be helpless, and the war will lose its original meaning. What's more, the current ratio of the number of active dreadnoughts on both sides is 1 to 5, even if the British Navy has an absolute advantage in the front dreadnought, if it wants to eat Germany, it will suffer unimaginable losses; And once Britain, a traditional sea power country, was hit hard by Germany, a land country, on the ocean, then the psychological effect of this incident alone was triggered. All of them will have catastrophic consequences for the UK both economically and politically!

As for saying that Britain is pulling its allies along? This is even more of a muffled choice. As Victorian Britain had pursued a policy of "glorious isolation", the only formal allies of the Entente were Japan and France, and neither of them could be a reliable basis for Britain's victory over Germany.

As an ally of Great Britain against Russian expansion in the Far East, Japan was unlikely to be of much help to Britain's war adventures in any way. A Russo-Japanese War had drained all the already pitiful energy of this third-rate country, and their geographical location on the other side of the world meant that they could only play the role of soy sauce in the conflict between Britain and Germany. The only thing that Japan could look up to the British was their powerful navy, which would have been able to strike Germany more effectively if the Royal Navy had been aided by the Combined Fleet. However, it is clear that Japan will not give up this power in its hands. With the total annihilation of the Russian Second Pacific Fleet, the Japanese Navy, which had disrupted the balance of power in the Far East, should hold on tightly to the power in its hands. In this way, in an era when truth existed only within the range of cannons, he could preserve his vested position in front of Britain, and then gain a higher status and value. During World War I. The rejection of Britain's desire to lease the Japanese Kongo-class battle cruisers is an excellent manifestation of Japan's idea: after all, no one can guarantee that the British will not make a move to drive the tiger and devour the wolf, and push the Japanese warships that they already wanted to get rid of quickly to the front line of the German fight!

France, Britain's other ally, is even less likely to give Britain any aid in the current Anglo-German war. Under the long years of reform with romanticism, France's military strength was extremely weak, and it was no match for Germany at all; More importantly, with the crushing defeat of Russia in the Far East and the turmoil in the domestic situation, France's greatest reliance on Germany for rivalry had disappeared in a short time. The German-Austrian-Italian Triple Alliance, which is not contained by Russia, is definitely not something that France can deal with on land! Even Foreign Minister Delcasser, who fanatically advocated revenge against Germany in France, can only hold his tail between his legs in diplomatic occasions for the time being, lest the eager Prussian military find an excuse to go to war against France. It is conceivable that once Britain showed its intention to go to war against Germany, France would certainly do its best to prevent Britain from launching this "preventive war" that was very likely to bring harm to itself, because the powerful army of Germany and Austria was worried that they could not find an offensive target that could give them vent!

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"In spite of the great pain and reluctance in my heart, as a devout believer in the Lord, I must face up to the fact that the two great standards imposed by the Royal Navy in the days of the Marquess of Salisbury are no longer viable today."

Bannerman's old voice resounded in the room, breaking the silence between the three of them: "Ten years ago, a mass-produced standard capital ship cost less than £1,100,000; At that time, we only had an army of 100,000 people, and the vast majority of the annual defense expenditure was given to the navy. Therefore, we were able to maintain the construction of 6 capital ships per year with a relatively calm attitude in those years. Now, ten years later, the situation has changed radically. ”

"After the Boer War and the signing of a sincere agreement with France, the British Empire became in need of a powerful army to defend its colonies throughout the world and to help France defend against a possible German attack. At present, the total number of British army personnel exceeds 400,000, and a large number of equipment purchases and weapons research and development have made a geometric leap in army funding compared with that year. In the naval sector, the price of warships is also suddenly expensive: the cost of the new Dreadnought battleship has risen sharply to nearly 1.8 million pounds, and even the average price of the Bolerophon-class battleship, which has been built in batches of six, exceeds 1.7 million pounds. Bannerman's face was solemn, and his words were full of concern and pain about the current situation, "Compared with the sharp increase in the expenditure of the army and navy, our current fiscal revenue is only 16% higher than it was in 1896!" Even if the government does its best, the current average annual construction rate of 7 capital ships cannot be sustained for a long time; And even this maximum speed that we can achieve is only 40% faster than the speed of German shipbuilding, and it is impossible to achieve the two-power standard of targeting Germany and the so-called 'two ships to one' for Germany. Therefore, it is imperative that the Navy abandon the implementation of the two-power standard. This is not due to our lack of shipbuilding capacity, but the few pounds in our purse bags do not allow us to do so. ”

The Minister of War, Haldan, who was a lawyer, nodded slowly and said in a deep voice: "What Sir said is good. At present, the key to determining the victory or defeat of the naval arms race has shifted from the scale of forests in the age of sails to a direct measure of a country's economic strength and industrial level; And Britain in this can no longer reproduce the supreme glory of half a century ago. Last year, Britain's national income totaled £1.9 billion, while Germany's across the Channel had £45 billion, which translates to 15% more than ours! If we don't need to maintain a huge army that defends the world, we can squeeze out a huge amount of money for the navy to start construction of 10 capital ships a year and maintain the standard of two powers; However, at a time when France was in danger of being crushed by Germany, Austria and Italy, a large army had become an indispensable and important component of the British Empire. In fact, at present, the British Army is also in urgent need of a large amount of effective injection, after all, in the absence of Russia to contain Germany and Austria, the pressure on the French Army is too great, and France without our help will not be able to resist the German-Austrian alliance in any case. ”

Fisher opened his mouth, but eventually fell silent, refusing to refute the words of Bannerman and Haldane. Ever since this year's parliament vigorously passed the "two-ship-to-one" construction bill for the German Navy, but Asquith, who is the Chancellor of the Exchequer and has always been known for his foreign strength, has only allocated funds for the construction of five capital ships for the Navy, he has a faint feeling that it may be difficult for the British treasury to implement a 2-to-1 ratio of capital ships to the German Navy, which has been ahead of schedule for three years ahead of schedule. The huge budget for the construction of nine capital ships in 1906 advanced too much potential for the coming year, and this kind of deformed development of overdrawing the future and eating too much food was doomed to make it impossible for Britain to maintain this shipbuilding speed that could maintain twice the strength of the German navy!

Now, there is undoubtedly an extremely difficult situation left for the British top. With the total annihilation of the Russian Baltic Fleet and the crushing defeat of the army in the Far East, the German-Austrian alliance entered a phase of total strength both on land and at sea, and Britain had absolutely no chance of launching a preventive war. And if there is a peaceful competition, Britain, whose economy and major industrial products are far surpassed by Germany, will not be able to maintain a 2-to-1 scale of naval capital ships! (To be continued......)

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