In Japan, there is no problem of selective siding in Japan's diplomacy. At the request of the British ambassador, the Cabinet of Ministers quickly made the decision to join the Entente.

On August 7, Britain sent a diplomatic note to Japan, invoking the Anglo-Japanese alliance and demanding that Japan send a naval fleet to clear the coast of China of German ships and ensure Britain's maritime security.

A naval attack on the German East Asian Fleet would mean war with Germany, and it was not difficult for the Japanese government to make this decision, and there was little opposition between the government and the military department. After receiving the diplomatic note from Britain, Foreign Minister Takaaki Kato immediately reported to Prime Minister Shigenobu Okuma and urged Prime Minister Okuma to convene a cabinet meeting to decide to declare war on Germany and Austria. The next day, a cabinet meeting chaired by Shigenobu Okuma decided to join the side of the Entente.

However, Minister of War Nosuke Okaichi's proposal for a joint attack on Qingdao by the army and navy at a cabinet meeting caused a huge controversy, and a fierce war of words broke out among the cabinet members, who were accustomed to quarrels.

The Japanese decision-makers, who had regarded China as nothing since the First Sino-Japanese War, finally did not dare to ignore the great power that had brought them civilization and progress, from worship to conquest and plunder.

The sea provided Japan with a natural security barrier, and it helped Japan resist the invasion of the Mongol army, but it also limited Japan's development. Therefore, Japan has dreamed of setting foot on the mainland for hundreds of years. But it was not until more than a decade ago, due to the decline of China, which was once Japan's teacher, that Japan began to realize its continental dream from Korea to Manchuria.

For the sake of this dream, they did not hesitate to fight the whole country against the declining Russia. We did our best to win the Russo-Japanese War.

After the end of the Russo-Japanese War in 1904~1905, China was still asleep, and even the most discerning Japanese politicians would not see a bandit-born army dormant in Shandong as a threat. After defeating Russia, Japan had no rivals in East Asia and could calmly unfold its strategy.

After the Meiji Restoration, Japan had a well-established political system, and in 1907, they formulated the "Showa Forty Years Imperial Defense Policy" and the "Guidelines for the Use of Imperial Forces" in 1907, which served as guidelines for the future actions of the government and the army and navy. The originals of these two texts were kept by the emperor himself. Five copies were given to the Prime Minister, the Minister of War, the Secretary of the Navy, the Chief of Staff of the Army and the Chief of Naval Orders.

Its main contents are: 1. The original meaning of imperial national defense is to take self-defense as its purpose. It is to protect the interests and sovereignty of the country, and to implement the founding of the country and the enterprising country. 2. The Imperial National Defense Policy is based on the original meaning of Imperial National Defense, and the power of the initial war should be enhanced as much as possible according to the national strength, and the guiding ideology is to take a quick battle and a quick victory as the guiding ideology. 3. The National Defense of the Empire In view of the original meaning of the National Defense of the Empire. Targeting Russia, the United States, and France. and to build up armaments capable of offensive operations in East Asia. 4. The establishment of the army was increased to 25 divisions and regiments in peacetime. In wartime, it can be expanded to 50 divisions. The Navy had 8 battleships and 8 armored cruisers as the main force, together with the corresponding auxiliary ships. It should reach half a million tons.

The most important feature of Japan's "Imperial National Defense Policy" in 1907 was that it rejected the "sea lord and land subordination" and the "island empire theory" that the Japanese navy had always advocated. Originally, Japan was founded on the basis of a navy, but after acquiring the rights and interests of Korea and Manchuria. The argument that "the sea is the master of the land and the land is subordinate" has lost its convincing force. The first article of the policy blatantly declared, "We must safeguard the rights and interests acquired in Manchuria and Korea during the Meiji 378 War by throwing away tens of thousands of lives and huge sums of goods, and support the development of the people's power that is expanding vigorously to Asia Minor and the other side of the Pacific......

These words that are unclear in reading are the characteristics of official Japanese documents, and the Japanese can always say things that are unclear and can be interpreted in multiple ways. Yoshiichi Tanaka, chief of the Operations Section of the General Staff Headquarters, who participated in the formulation of the draft national defense policy, explained this as follows: "Nowhere can the Japanese-British alliance find an operational influence that is favorable to our army's operations, except for political and strategic influences. One day, I will abandon the Japan-Britain alliance in favor of the Japan-Russia alliance, and seize my right to create a Zào for Britain in the Far East. Our Navy must also study and develop plans for the British fleet......"

The objectives of the new "Imperial National Defense Guidelines" are to defend Russia and to achieve a balance of military power between Japan and Russia in Northeast Asia. The objectives of its 25 divisions were determined by calculation. During the Russo-Japanese War, Japan's standing force was 13 divisions (1~12, Guards Division), and during the war, the 13th Division (Takada Division), the 14th Division (Utsunomiya Division), the 15th Division (Toyohashi Division), and the 16th Division (Kyoto Division) were successively expanded, reaching 17 divisions in the summer of 1905. In 1907, the 17th and 18th divisions were formed in Okayama and Kurume. The total reached 19. After consulting with the General Staff Headquarters, then Minister of War Masaaki Terauchi decided to set 20 divisions as the first phase of the target in view of Japan's extremely deteriorating financial situation, and to build another five divisions after the financial situation eased in the future.

The Navy regards the United States as an imaginary enemy. In the "Program for the Use of Military Forces in the Imperial Army," Japan drew up a plan for fighting against the United States based on the experience of the Russo-Japanese War: the navy quickly suppressed the US Asian fleet at the beginning of the war, and the army, with the assistance of the navy, adopted a tactic similar to the raid on Port Arthur to destroy the US naval bases on Luzon and Guam. When the main U.S. fleet sailed to the Far East, it adopted the same tactics as it had done to meet the Russian Second Pacific Fleet, and adopted the tactics of inviting attacks gradually, and finally annihilated or crushed the U.S. Navy's main fleet in one fell swoop off the coast of Japan.

In order to achieve this goal, Japan began to plan for the establishment of the "88" fleet in earnest in 1907. The plan was to use 8 battleships and 8 armored cruisers less than eight years old as the main front-line forces. The Japanese Navy at that time already had 9 battleships and 8 armored cruisers that met this requirement. In consideration of the replacement issue, the Admiralty decided that in order to maintain this goal, only 60 million yen would be needed to build the ship over seven years, and there would be no financial pressure. But given the rapid progress in technology, especially the appearance of dreadnoughts, this plan was not advanced. In 1910, the Admiralty proposed a huge shipbuilding plan: to build an ultra-luxury fleet of 12 dreadnoughts and 8 large cruisers, at an estimated cost of 650 million yen.

After this plan was brought out, the Navy itself felt that it was a bit excessive. Minoru Saito, then Minister of the Navy, reduced the plan to eight dreadnoughts and seven large cruisers, and submitted it to the Cabinet for approval in 1911.

The Cabinet did not approve the plan, but it increased the Navy's shipbuilding expenses by about 22 million yen.

Japan's move provoked the United States. Diplomatically, the United States does not trust either Russia nor Japan. When the Russo-Japanese War broke out, the United States adopted the principle of "choosing the lesser of two evils" and let Japan kill Russia first.

But after the end of the Russo-Japanese War, the United States soon found itself in the possibility of war with Japan. In October 1906, the San Francisco Board of Education adopted racial segregation. Designated vocational schools for Japanese, Chinese, and Korean students. The Manchus and Korea did not dare to speak out. However, the Japanese quit, and Japan was no longer in the era of black ship invasion, and immediately invoked the relevant provisions of the "Japan-US Treaty of Commerce and Navigation" to lodge a stern protest, causing sudden tension in Japanese-US relations. So much so that Secretary of State Elihu. Root to President Theodore. Roosevelt's memo was pessimistic in his opinion: If every qiē points to war. Then there will be a war. Given that the main forces of the American fleet are placed in the Atlantic. And the Panama Canal is not yet navigable. The U.S. Asian Fleet was by no means an adversary to Japan, and the most pessimistic estimate was that the Japanese army swept through the Philippines, Hawaii, and even the states of the U.S. Pacific Coast.

This memorandum frightened Roosevelt, and he hurriedly asked the Navy about its plan for fighting Japan. Admiral Dewey, commander-in-chief of the Navy, did not dare to give an affirmative answer satisfactory to the president, and learned the Japanese habit of writing, "Within 90 days of the departure of the battleship fleet from the Atlantic, there is sufficient superiority to dominate the seas in the East." ”

Roosevelt was naturally dissatisfied, and ordered the Admiralty, the General Council of the Navy, and the Naval Military Academy to draw up a plan for the war against Japan, and finally came up with the famous "Orange" plan in 1911.

The United States' vigilance against Japan has suddenly increased. Under these circumstances, the United States has met all the requirements of the new China in terms of shipbuilding, and then it has a reasonable explanation for the new Chinese navy's purchase of ships and technology from the United States and the manufacture of naval guns. The Americans want the emergence of a country in East Asia that will be strong enough to contain Japan, and this country can only be China.

Japan, on the other hand, has greatly changed its national defense strategy because of the birth of New China.

The establishment of mainland policy has made China a target for Japanese encroachment or swallowing. The vast majority of politicians based on the assumption that as long as China was in a state of disintegration, China would by no means be an opponent of Japan, and that Japan could calmly implement their continental strategy, starting with Korea and Manchuria, and then gradually encroaching on China. Therefore, Japan has always supported Sun Wen's Paiman Revolution, and did not hesitate to provide funds and weapons to support him, and even helped Sun Wen achieve independence in the south to split China. In addition to supporting the revolutionary party, Japan also bet on many sides like a seasoned gambler, supporting and wooing the Beiyang system headed by Yuan Shikai and even the Manchu Qing Dynasty, so as to achieve the goal of interfering in and controlling China's internal affairs.

At first, the Japanese did not pay much attention to the Mengshan Army that rose in Shandong, and it was not until the end of 1906 that Long Qian led the main force of the Fifth Town to Huxiang to suppress the Huidang rebellion. However, the Japanese never imagined that after the Mengshan Army raised its troops, it would overthrow the Manchu Empire in a devastating manner, and even the Beiyang New Army, which Japan had seriously assessed its combat strength, was defeated by the Mengshan Army.

New China's diplomacy has fallen in favor of Germany and the United States. During that time, New China did not openly express its hostility to Japan, and of course there were some scandals, such as the dispute over the debt of Han Yeping's company and the expulsion of diplomats due to the espionage case. However, the relations between the two countries were basically normal, and New China inherited the negative assets of the Manchu Qing Dynasty against Japan, and Japan's interests in China were not openly infringed upon, and in particular, the right to operate the South Manchurian Railway was still firmly in Japan's hands. With the establishment of the new Chinese political system, some of Japan's elders even had the intention of wooing China, and China's agreement to export crude oil to Japan (discounted with Gengzi indemnity) alleviated the hostility of the Japanese government and opposition to China, and Japan sided with China in the military conflict that broke out between China and Russia over the Outer Mongolia issue in 1910, and they believed that Russia's threat to Japan was far greater than that of China.

However, this short-lived period of "peaceful coexistence" gradually deteriorated with the rapid economic and military development of New China. The Japanese were horrified to discover that there was no infighting in New China as judged by Japanese political leaders (Katsura Taro and Saionji Gongwang predicted that New China would be doomed to fail if it followed the example of the Anglo-American parliamentary government). A military political clique with Long Qian as the core has completely controlled the political situation, and the Manchu Qing Dynasty, the Kuomintang Party, and the Beiyang military clique independent of the Manchu Qing Dynasty have been swept away, and China has no political forces that can counter the Long Qian clique, let alone military forces.

After the formation of a central government that Japan does not want to see, the speed of China's economic recovery has surprised Japan. After receiving help from the United States and Germany, it developed at a visible speed in the economic and military aspects, and in the economic aspect, for example, in the case of steel, as early as 1911. The total output of China's two major steel bases in Yizhou and Hanyang exceeds 300,000 tons! Japan was left behind completely. According to Japanese intelligence, at the end of 1913, China's steel production exceeded 550,000 tons, while Japan's only 250,000 tons. It's less than half of China's! Oil. Shandong Oilfield produces more than 2,500 tons of crude oil per day. Japan is largely dependent on imports. In terms of machining, China imported more than 10,000 machine tools from Germany and the United States in the four years of 1910~1913. Industrial bases have been gradually established in Jinan, Shanghai, Wuhan, Nanjing, Xi'an, Taiyuan, Shenyang, Changchun, and Luoyang, which can produce "high-precision" products such as automobiles, textile machines, bicycles, and ordinary machine tools, and the cars designed by the Chinese have long surpassed Japan, and they can even produce military aircraft with the support of American and German technology! In addition, Japan's achievements in medicine and chemical industry have also alarmed Japan, China has surpassed Japan in the field of explosives, and thanks to the technical support of the Swiss company Zebra, China has also taken the lead in Western medicine manufacturing and research.

With the rapid development of foreign trade in New China, the output of soybeans in Northeast China has increased year by year after the establishment of the Agricultural Reclamation Corps and the implementation of the agricultural order model, and has become one of the main products for foreign exchange earnings, earning 19 million US dollars in foreign exchange for China in 1912 alone. The export volume of petroleum and non-ferrous metals has increased year by year, and the textile industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has developed rapidly, which has challenged Japan's traditional export advantage projects, and China's progress in labor-intensive industries such as raw silk and textiles is extremely obvious, and it is grabbing Japan's export share. They have established rubber bases in Liangguang and Qiongzhou, and Japan will instead import raw rubber and rubber products to China.

The transportation situation is also worrying for Japan. In particular, the construction of the new railway in New China was remarkable, and the early opening of the new Beijing-Shenyang line (the whole line was completed in March 1914, nine months ahead of schedule) made Japan worry about the safety of South Manchuria. Because even if Japan strengthened the strength of the Chinese garrison in Tianjin (formerly the Qing State garrison army), the headquarters of the headquarters in Tianjin, could not stop the Chinese mainland from increasing troops outside the Guan. To this end, Japan began to increase the strength of South Manchuria, from a brigade whose main purpose was to protect the road to a division (less than a force).

What worries Japan the most is China's growth rate, which has grown by more than 20 percent in recent years, according to estimates by the Japanese economic department.

The formation of this situation is actually the difference between large and small countries, China's abundant natural resources and endless human resources, once the civil strife is eliminated, a strong leadership center is established, and practical economic policies are formulated, its potential to explode is by no means comparable to that of an island country.

Economic recovery will inevitably lead to the progress of the military industry. In 1912, Japan obtained a semi-automatic rifle developed by China, believing that it had surpassed the Meiji 38-year-old rifle installed in the army, and surpassed the Japanese-made rifle in terms of ammunition preparation, rate of fire and lethality, but the accuracy was slightly worse. With the full help of Germany, China can already produce artillery below 150mm, and the production of ammunition is basically self-produced and no longer depends on imports.

In 1913, Japan's sporadic intelligence was compiled by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and submitted to the Ministry of War, which comprehensively assessed China's military potential and believed that China could already compete with Japan. However, this conclusion was not recognized by all cabinet members, especially the General Staff Headquarters, which believed that one wing of the Japanese army was enough to defeat a Chinese infantry brigade, and completely did not accept the conclusion of the War Ministry. There is a side argument to China's military intelligence, and because of the increasingly powerful counterintelligence capabilities of the State Security Administration, there is a strong demand for the establishment of a professional intelligence agency to strengthen intelligence collection on China. Previously, Japan did not have a special intelligence agency, and although this report was not approved by the military department, especially the army staff headquarters, it prompted the establishment of Japan's National Intelligence Service.

Back to the point.

After the outbreak of the European war, the Japanese government and the opposition were jubilant. Duke Inoue Shin, who had a tremendous influence on the Japanese government and the opposition, wrote a letter to Aritomo Yamayama, the soul of the Japanese Army, saying that the great war in Europe was a blessing for Japan's development of its national fortunes, and that Japan should immediately stop the political struggle and join hands with Britain, France, and Russia to establish Japan's absolute leadership in East Asia.

Elder Inoue Xin's letter to Yama Prefecture Aritomo hides multiple meanings. At that time, Japan was riddled with internal problems.

The first is an extremely weak economy. After the Russo-Japanese War, the principal and interest on foreign debt issued for the Russo-Japanese War exceeded twice the annual budget of Japan, reaching 1 billion yen. Because it did not receive a penny of war reparations, Japan had to borrow more foreign debts in order to repay its foreign debts. However, Japan's trade has gone wrong again, and with the recovery of China's economy, it has been squeezed by China in traditional export items, and it has been surpassing the market year after year, and the economy is in trouble. Under such circumstances, if the military department wants to continue to increase its investment in armaments, it can only rely on raising taxes and cutting fiscal expenditures. As a result, the Cabinet and the Ministry of Finance tried their best to curb the budget for the expansion of the army and navy, so much so that the navy and army quarreled fiercely over the limited budget resources, and Prime Minister Katsura Taro resigned. In order to fulfill their respective appropriation requirements, the Japanese military had to go separately to the path of political instigation, and the military forces began to intervene in the political circles, which were delicately balanced by political parties and feudal lords, so that the balance was shaken.

The second is the deepening contradictions between the Japanese Navy and Army. In 1913, the "Siemens" incident was exposed, and the navy was pushed to the forefront because of the disclosure of huge bribes from high-ranking personnel. The Army, which has been suppressed by the Navy for a long time, finally has a chance to vent, and of course it will not let go of this excellent opportunity. In February 1914, riots broke out in Hibiya Park across the street from the National Diet Building over the Siemens scandal, and the people who could not bear the heavy tax burden destroyed the headquarters of the Seisai Association and the Chuo Shimbun, and clashed with the police. As a result of the incident, the Yamamoto Gonbei cabinet resigned, and the navy languished and the battle with the army was at a disadvantage for the first time.

Elder Inoue Shin said that the cessation of political disputes mainly refers to the discord between the navy and the army, which has caused systemic contradictions.

Although the General Staff Headquarters of the Japanese Army's military command organ ignored the Ministry of War's assessment of China's military strength, it was also deeply concerned about China's rapid economic and military development. Since China's development has seriously threatened Japan's security, it is necessary to take action to eliminate this threat as soon as possible. Now's finally here! War Minister Nosuke Okaichi threw out a plan to attack Qingdao at a meeting that decided Japan's entry into the war, and it was one of the plans that the General Staff Headquarters had been studying for a long time.

To fight a war, we always have to find an excuse, and we need it externally, and we need it even more internally. Since war was declared on Germany, attacking Qingdao was the best excuse. When a cabinet member raised the possibility of a conflict with China, Okaichi Nosuke affirmed that the Army welcomes the emergence of such a situation! The Army would like to see this happen. Okaichi further explained that Shandong is the foundation of the Longqian group, Jinan is China's largest arms producer, and the occupation of Jinan and then Shandong is completely in the interests of the Great Japanese Empire! Compared to Manchuria, Shandong is a better target.

Okaichi's plan has the cabinet pounded! The Shandong oil fields alone are coveted by Japan. If this goal is achieved, it will be a feat in one fell swoop. However, the August 8 meeting did not approve Okaichi's plan, and a heated quarrel broke out in the cabinet, and no conclusion was reached. There was no difference between the pro-war and anti-war cabinet members who were active in their activities, and they actually shared the same goal, that is, to serve the fundamental interests of Japan. (To be continued......)