What would Germany lose in World War I?

People from different positions will give completely different answers to this question. Some will attribute it to short-sightedness in the alliance of states, while others will see it as a fallacy of the Army's strategic choices. Some people think that the original perfect Schlieffen plan was altered beyond recognition by Moltke Jr., and some people who are in line with the London gentleman blame the source of the fall of the German Empire on the monstrous ambition of Wilhelm II and Tirpitz, two "heinous criminals", for the holy sea power, which seriously damaged the originally good Anglo-German relations, so that the British Empire resolutely waved the holy sword in its hand and sent an "unstoppable" and "just" judgment to this "evil pirate warlord government".

To be sure, there is some truth to some of these arguments. First of all, the short-sightedness of Germany's strategic alliance was definitely a major failure of its decision-making level, and the old chancellor, who had been diplomatically maneuvering for decades, accidentally made friends in his later years, and even chose Austria-Hungary, a zombie, as his ally between Russia and Austria-Hungary. Whatever Bismarck's complex domestic and foreign network considerations at the time, it is an indisputable fact that the German-Austrian alliance's decision-making mistakes were tragically manifested throughout the First World War; This multi-ethnic dualist monarchy is only suitable for the development of a peaceful atmosphere, and in a region and era when social Darwinism prevails and "truth exists only within the range of the cannon", Austria-Hungary has been engaged in all kinds of chaos by all the powers except Italy! If Germany and Russia can form an alliance, then 6.5 million gray cattle and 2.5 million Teutonic Hans will form an overwhelming rolling wave, which can sweep across Europe even with their eyes closed!

Secondly. The German Army's misselection of strategic objectives, as well as hesitation back and forth during the war. It was also one of the reasons why they ultimately failed. A Russo-Japanese War that lasted almost 20 months. The decay and decay hidden in Russia have been thoroughly exposed; And the successful example of Japan's victory at the front inducing a revolution in Russia and thus signing a favorable treaty was also clearly placed in front of the world. Yet the whole of Europe is still immersed in the magic of the invincible magic of the "steamroller", convinced that this mobilized behemoth will crush all its opponents with inexhaustible manpower and resources. If Germany could see this clearly, it would have shifted its strategic focus to the East from the outset; Or after the failure of Schriffen's plan, he honestly went to the Eastern Front to fight Mao, and did not engage in any Western Front offensive in 1916 that "made France bleed the last drop of blood", then maybe after dealing with Russia in advance, he could still reach a reconciliation with Britain and France with a certain degree of concessions. Thus ending the war undefeated. The strategy of defending the west and attacking the east pursued by Qing Ying is a recognition of this viewpoint.

As for attributing the blame for the defeat of the war to Moltke's revision of Schlieffen's plan, although it is unfair (after all, the situation in 1914 has changed greatly from 1905), Qingying cannot deny that Moltke's revision of Schlieffen's plan did have factors that led to the final defeat of the German army. If Moltke had been as ruthless as Schlieffen had dared to carry out a policy of plundering and expropriating 1 billion francs in Belgium as Schlieffen had originally planned, it would be very likely that Germany would not be short of supplies in the later stages of the offensive. And if Moltke's character can not be too cautious, at the juncture of the Russian attack on East Prussia, he will not transfer the combat strength of the entire 2 armies to the Eastern Front (in fact, this group of troops did not catch up with the crucial battle), but to fill the gap between Crook and Bilow; Then the right flank of the German army, which was already at the end of its strength but had high morale, may not be able to take Paris as desired, and France, which has lost its capital, will also have a high probability of peace talks with Germany.

But. To blame the development of the navy for Germany's defeat would be to put the cart before the horse. The fundamental contradiction between Britain and Germany was that Germany's growing world trade had greatly squeezed out the overseas markets on which the "sun never set" empire. and the fact that the Prussian war machine, which was so close at hand, continued to swell in a trend towards upsetting the balance of power on the continent. Tirpitz was keenly aware of the inevitability of the conflict between Britain and Germany, and had a premonition that Britain would launch a "preventive war" against Germany before Germany had fully grown up, just like the Prussian military's war plan against France. In the era of Bismarck's administration, Germany's national strength was relatively low, and it was far from being able to subvert the hegemony of Britain in the world, which is why the argument that "Germany without a navy is safe" became popular. By the time of Wilhelm II, the powerful Germany had come under unprecedented pressure, so the development of the navy became a top priority. In other words, if Germany had no navy, Britain would have been able to knead Germany without any scruples; And if Germany had a strong fleet, the risk of a war between Britain and Germany would have increased exponentially, because the loss of the fleet would not have been able to bear in a country that was heavily dependent on the sea!

In Qingying's view, in addition to these various reasons, there is another crucial factor, that is, the United States joined the Entente in 1917 and declared war on Germany! After half a century of peaceful development after the Civil War, this country has become the most perverted existence in this world: it not only has a population of nearly 100 million, but also has achieved more than one-third of the terrifying progress of Britain's per capita industrialization, and its comprehensive national strength is even stronger than that of Britain, France and Germany combined! The United States, which is an open-minded existence, joined the side of the Entente, and immediately injected a very strong shot of strength into Britain and France, which were mired in war and tormented by massive consumption. A large number of supplies and troops from the United States continued to flow to Europe, the Allied barracks were filled with a bang, and Britain and France, whose strength had been greatly expanded, were so confident in the victory of the war that the Entente still insisted on continuing the war after Russia withstood the major blow of Russia's withdrawal from the war and the cession of large tracts of land and the reparation of 6 billion marks.

It is not difficult to see through history that as long as Germany's land strategy is correct, it is enough to be invincible under the alliance of Britain, France and Russia; However, once the United States enters the war, the balance of power will be reversed in an instant. Therefore, if Qingying wanted to change the fate of Germany, he had to avoid war with the United States; And to achieve this, the navy is the key!

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It should be pointed out that the main reason why the United States joined the Allied side of the war was definitely not because they had the same language and blood ties with Britain as so-called "Saxon cousins", and they were going to help Britain because they spoke the same language. For countries, especially these big countries, interests always come first, and no country's decision-makers will be so brain-dead as to help the other party destroy their family and relieve their difficulties because of an illusory "same origin and same species" reason. The reason why the United States entered the war was purely because of money.

After the outbreak of World War I, the United States initially maintained strict neutrality on the other side of the ocean, and watched the desperate fight between the two camps in a leisurely manner. As the war continued, both warring sides found that the war that had been planned to last only three months had turned into a long-term war, and Britain and France, which had insufficient reserves of various materials and huge losses on the battlefield, immediately turned their attention to the United States, a country with industrial strength and various resources, for support. Faced with the temptation of a large amount of real money in the hands of Britain and France, and the extremely high interest rates for the purchase of war bonds, the greedy American capitalists salivated and immediately pushed Congress to pass a bill of "cash and transport" to open the sale of prohibited goods such as weapons, ammunition, raw materials, ores, and so on.

Although the Act was ostensibly a treaty open to both belligerents on an equal footing, the long-range blockade imposed by the British Grand Fleet at Scapa Bay disrupted German ocean shipping, and the United States was able to transport only a few negligible cargoes to mainland China by submarines, and the United States effectively became a super-blood bank for unilateral blood transfusions for the Allies. As the war dragged on, the United States not only made a lot of real money, but also subscribed to a huge amount of debt issued by the Allied countries: according to incomplete statistics, in the two and a half years after the outbreak of the war, the United States held a staggering $10 billion in British and French claims through the method of "cash and trade." At this point, the money of the United States was tied to the war situation of the Entente and became a community of interests: if the Entente could win, then the money would be recovered; And if the Entente loses the war, or if they are exhausted by the fact that they have no benefit, then Britain and France, whose economies have already suffered heavy losses in the war, will most likely not be able to repay the money, and the massive loans issued by the Americans will really become a hollow bubble of selfless aid! Therefore, in this case, sooner or later the United States will catch the chariot of Britain and France, and the unrestricted submarine war launched by Germany is only a reason for Washington to declare war.

This is evident. As long as the Entente continued to have exclusive sea power as it had historically been, it was very likely that the United States, a detached country, would be dragged into the water as an enemy of Germany. To avoid this, Germany had to break Britain's long-range blockade at sea and open a sea route north along the Norwegian coast and then to the United States. Only if Germany can use the ocean, lubricate the war machine through material imports, and at the same time hijack the U.S. Congressional finance, will this biggest hidden danger for Germany be truly eliminated. To achieve this, the German Navy had to have the power to break the blockade of the Grand Fleet and annihilate it in one fell swoop to the point where it could not threaten the route. This is also the core reason why Qingying tirelessly strengthens the navy! (To be continued......)

PS: Thank you for the tip of hugetiger~