Sunny and blooming, a prairie-style country house is set in a scenic farmstead, set against the backdrop of verdant foliage and tidal waves of wheat, it looks tranquil, laid-back and full of life.

In the spacious and bright room, a thin old man sat on the bed with his back on a cushion; Although the gray-brown eyes under the monocle could not hide the tiredness, they still revealed a sharpness and sharpness like an eagle's falcon. With a pen in his right hand, he was writing carefully on the paper spread out on the bed; And next to this stack of manuscript papers, by Theodore? The first volume of Roosevelt's "Through the Wild Forests of Brazil" was already in front of him.

In 1912, Theodore, who had lost the presidential election, announced his retirement from politics and began a colorful retirement. In his early years, Roosevelt, who had a wide range of hobbies, organized an expedition to explore the mysteries of the Amazon jungle. However, in the process, he unfortunately contracted malaria and nearly died as a result. Although he eventually struggled from the brink of death, a serious illness also took a terrible toll on his physical condition. At this time, Theodore's body was repeatedly affected by the source of the disease, which had never healed, and he could only lie in bed and continue his academic creation.

Footsteps sounded, the door opened, and a young man with a white face and beard walked in with a sturdy figure. Looking at Theodore lying on the bed, the young man spoke softly: "Cousin, the latest news has just come from Europe: Germany has significantly lowered its demand for an armistice, and the Amsterdam negotiations have resumed. Judging from the current shape, it is estimated that it will not be long before this European war, which has lasted for a whole year, will come to an end. ”

Theodore put down the pen in his hand. Looking at the young man, there was a little more surprise in disbelief. The young man nodded slightly. "Although the news is very abrupt. But that's what happened in Amsterdam. Germany's demand for reparations to France was reduced from 130 billion to 50 billion francs, and it no longer retained absolute territorial claims to France itself, but only to allow the French to exchange all their overseas colonies for the French lands currently occupied by the German army. According to the information we have, under the strong plea of France, Germany and France have started negotiations on the amount of reparations, which does not seem to be the bottom line of the armistice for the Germans. ”

"What about the situation in England, and what are the conditions that Germany has put on them?" Theodore asked slowly.

"The Germans wanted Britain to withdraw from Egypt and the Transvaal. and gave them several colonies around the Persian Gulf, Nigeria, and Guyana. In addition to this, Germany also demanded that the total tonnage of Britain's post-war capital ships should not exceed 60% of theirs, otherwise it would decide not to negotiate. The young man who called Theodore his cousin replied, and there was a hint of relief in his words, "Since the German crown prince joined the negotiations, the armistice conditions of the Berlin government have suddenly become too much rational; If Britain and France had been able to reach a peace agreement with Germany on this, His Excellency would no longer have to worry about the billions of dollars in debt that would not be recovered. ”

Looking at the young man's relaxed face with a hint of pleasure, Theodore, who had been emaciated by recovering from a serious illness, just stared at him fixedly, without saying a word. After a while, when the young man realized that something was wrong with the atmosphere. Theodore sighed heavily, and closed his eyes. Leaning back on the cushion no longer moves.

"What's the matter, cousin, am there something wrong with what I said?" Seeing Theodore's sad and depressed face, the young man was puzzled and couldn't help asking, "Is the German government's concession in the armistice negotiations exactly what the government of the United States, which is mired in the Anglo-French money-lending crisis, is the situation that the government of the United States is most eager to see?" When these loans are successfully recovered, the United States will not only avoid the bankruptcy of a large number of merchants and factories, but also the country's economy will reach a new level. Didn't even our family buy $3 million in British government bonds more than half a year ago? Now it can be cashed in at a high annual interest rate of 8.5%, which is also very good for the family's finances. ”

Theodore slowly opened his eyes, looked at the young man's eyes full of regret and anger, and said: "Franklin, you are the leader of our young group of Roosevelt family, and you are even more fortunate to be in the high position of deputy secretary of the Navy at the age of 31; In the future of American politics, there will inevitably be a place for you. But why is your understanding of international politics so shallow? Now you are only Daniels Jr.'s deputy, and he has already paved the way for you in advance, and you don't need to make decisions at all; But in the future, once you enter the core cabinet of the government, or even ascend to the presidency, your childish strategic gaze is the greatest crime against the United States! ”

The young man known as Franklin stood still, unresponsive for a moment. Although he and Theodore, who was sick at the moment, were cousins of each other, they were nearly 25 years older than him, and in terms of age, they were more than enough to be his father. In terms of political achievements, Theodore threw Franklin away several streets: in 1895, he became the chief of police of New York City, and in two years of his tenure, he did a earth-shaking cleansing of the corrupt and degenerate New York Police Department, and eliminated the corrupt factors in one fell swoop; Later, he actually led the construction of the U.S. Navy and became the youngest president in U.S. history at the age of 42. If it weren't for the fact that three presidents had violated the conventions of American politics, it would still be unclear who he would have killed Wilson in the 1912 election.

It was for these reasons that Franklin always held his distant cousin in high esteem, and even after becoming Deputy Secretary of the Admiralty, he consulted him on the various indecisive matters that he had encountered in the course of his tenure. At this moment, being reprimanded by the other party, Franklin could only stand silently in front of his strict father like a bear child who had made a mistake, and did not dare to show the slightest look of disobedience and resistance.

"The Germans took the initiative to back down at the negotiating table, ostensibly to solve our problem of bad debts, but in fact it was a serious concern for the strategic shape of the United States. Once an armistice agreement is reached between the two sides of the war in Europe, there will be only one voice left in Europe from now on, and no force will be able to restrain their ambitions, and this is undoubtedly a situation that I, the United States, do not want to see! Theodore spoke again, and there was already a hint of solemnity in his words.

"But cousin, didn't the Germans weaken England and France too much? Germany's demand for an armistice even seemed lenient to Britain, who wanted to put them to death: they did not demand reparations from Britain, but only ordered it to surrender a few colonies, which was not a fundamental blow to Britain at all. Franklin spoke with some confusion, his words full of incomprehension, "Even if the French can no longer do anything in the future, Britain still retains a considerable amount of strength; And in their hearts, did they really willingly shake hands with Germany and make peace with Germany, and sit back and watch the other side seize their markets around the world, share their seas, and let the scorching sun over the British Empire slowly sink in an irresistible trend at a rate several times greater than before the war? It is precisely because the contradictions between them are fundamentally irreconcilable that today's European war, which has lasted for a whole year, broke out between the two countries! ”

Franklin paused, and then added: "Therefore, the Germans have spared Britain lightly this time, which is undoubtedly like kicking and beating a great white shark trapped in the shallows and then releasing it back into the deep sea, and will surely be subjected to furious revenge in the future." It is not known whether Britain will accept only 60% of the tonnage of German capital ships, and even if they compromise temporarily for the sake of temporary needs, they can always find an opportunity to abolish it at a later time. With its shipbuilding capabilities, the Royal Navy was bound to re-emerge within a few years of the abrogation of the treaty and once again become a hostile threat to Germany. Although Germany gained a great deal from the war, their primary target after the war was not the United States of America. ”

Theodore sighed and said, "Franklin, do you think there will be confrontation or even war between Britain and Germany from now on?" In less than five years, there will be only one national will, Germany, in the whole of Europe; And if its ambitions remain unsatisfied, its next target must be us! ”

Young Franklin froze in place again, his heart already filled with irrepressible astonishment and confusion.

"That's true. Britain must have been extremely reluctant to surrender the seas which they had ruled for more than three hundred years into the hands of the Germans, and the squeeze of British goods by German goods on overseas markets was akin to the plundering of their wealth by the Britons. It is precisely because of this irreconcilable contradiction that Britain has regarded Germany as a great danger since the beginning of the 20th century, and has joined forces with France and Russia to launch this European war. Theodore's slightly hoarse voice echoed through the room, but it gave Franklin a sense of surprise, "However, this qiē is based on the premise that Britain is convinced that the benefits of suppressing its opponents, or even starting a war, are higher than the costs of doing so!" ”

"Before the outbreak of the war, the situation on the European continent was a two-legged affair between the German-Austrian alliance and the Franco-Russian Entente. The British government, which had too much faith in Russian power, had at least sixty percent confidence of victory on land. On the ocean, Britain used 33 dreadnoughts against 24 of Germany's, and this ratio also gave them the feeling that they could firmly suppress their imaginary enemy. It was precisely in this situation, believing that the benefits of the war would far outweigh the costs, and believing that the war would only last three months, that the British government brazenly threw itself into this fight. Theodore looked at the young man in front of him and said slowly, "Now, you should understand the meaning of what I said earlier, right?" (To be continued......)

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