When he returned to the city, he called Hong Jixun, Zhao Guo and others.

Deng She didn't even change his clothes, only washed his face slightly, and then met them directly in the study. Pushing the door in, the first thing he asked Hong Jixun was: "Mr. Hong, I haven't seen you for a few days, I heard that you are at home behind closed doors, thinking hard about the thing we talked about last time." I wonder if there is a good plan now? ”

Hong Jixun didn't answer the rhetorical question, and said: "Minister, may I ask the lord, what is the situation in Dadu now?" Is there any new news? ”

Deng She shook his sleeves, strode through the front of everyone, went straight to the main seat, and sat down. Not only Zhao Guo and Hong Jixun came, but Li Shousheng was also here, on the right hand side of Deng She. After listening to Hong Jixun's question, at that moment, he said to Li Shousheng: "You are most familiar with the situation in Dadu. Tell Mr. Hong about it. ”

Li Shousheng replied: "Over there in the capital, there is no new news from Ji Chong and Marage. Based on last intelligence, two things are certain. First, it is certain that Wang Baobao met with the prisoner at night and talked secretly for a long time. Second, after meeting Wei Sijian, the next night, Wang Baobao met Pu Buhua again, which has also been determined. In addition, there is another point of doubt. ”

"What's suspicious?"

"Through one channel, Maregg found out that Wang Baobao seems to have met with the crown prince of the Tartars."

Hong Jixun raised his eyebrows, was very interested, and said, "Oh? ”

"It's just that this point has not yet been determined. I think that even if Wang Baobao really went to see the crown prince of Tartar, his whereabouts would definitely be very secretive, and not many people would know about it. It is also thanks to the fact that Maregg is a perverted person, and with the cover of this identity, it is very convenient to listen to the news, but despite this, he is only a rumor, and he has not been able to implement this matter until now. ”

Hong Jixun groaned and said: "'Nothing comes from the wind'. The existence of this rumor shows that the possibility of the existence of this matter cannot be ruled out. Li Shousheng, this matter is not trivial, but you have to work harder. Be sure to get conclusive news in a short period of time! Then he asked, "How is Chahan?" ”

"Polo soldiers are on Jining Road. Yesterday, there was a wire report from the Jinji side, saying that Polo had about 5,000 troops this time, divided into three battalions, which were stationed on the left, right, and center sides of the Jining Road. And there have been many times to take the initiative to provoke the Chahan garrison on Jining Road. However, I don't know if it was because of Chahan's order, but the Chahan army on Jining Road has always stood still and just defended the city, ignoring Polo's provocation. ”

"Five thousand?" This is not too much, but not too much. Hong Jixun lowered his head and thought for a moment, then raised his head again and asked, "Is there any reinforcements sent from Chahan?" ”

Li Shousheng shook his head and said, "The Chahan army in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, Henan and other places has not moved. There was no sign of sending reinforcements. Information came from Linfen that since the Polo pressurized the realm, Chahan had not yet left Linfen City. In addition, there are two more messages. ”

"What?"

"It's all about Polo. One was sent from Dadu, saying that he had also seen Polo's envoy in Dadu. The other was sent from Datong, saying that a few days ago, I saw a Biao army and horse going out of the city at night. Looking at its direction, it seems to be heading west. ”

"To the west? How many people are there? ”

"Because the army out of the city is heavily guarded, the exact number of people cannot be determined. It can only be roughly estimated that judging from the rice stoves and traces they left behind, it should be around 5,000 people. ”

"Five thousand, too?"

"Yes."

"Send 5,000 men to Jining Road, and send another 5,000 to the west. What kind of fame is Polo doing? ”

Zhao Guo hesitated and said: "Mo, don't you want to go to Dongsheng, Yunnei, Fengzhou and other places?" ”

Dongsheng, Yunnei, Fengzhou and other places are very close to Datong. Two years ago, Guan Duo's Liaoyang Red Turban Army was defeated by Polo here, and Deng She, Zhao Guo, and Li Shousheng all personally experienced this battle and were deeply impressed. If there was no rout of Fengzhou at that time, there would not have been Deng She's Yongping army.

However, he was deeply impressed, and when it came to the moment, Deng She did not agree with Zhao Guo's speculation. He put forward two reasons for opposition, saying: "A few years ago, King Yang Zhai of the Tartars rebelled in Lingbei, and there was an attempt to enter the belly. But a few months earlier, he had been defeated by the Tartar Emperor and killed. Nowadays, there has been no war in the areas of Monan and Mobei for a long time. This is one of them.

"Second. Moreover, now it is just when Polo intends to take the Jining Road south, and he is already very difficult to fight against Chahan alone. How could it be possible to take the initiative to send troops to Dongsheng, Yunnei, Fengzhou and other places at this critical moment? Therefore, this group of people who went out of the city definitely did not go to Dongsheng, Yunnei, Fengzhou and other places. ”

"So, what in the opinion of the Lord?"

"Although Polo's use of troops is far inferior to Chahan, he has also been in war for a long time in the end, and he is also 'proficient' in the way of using troops. ......, now that our intelligence is insufficient, I have also thought deeply about the purpose of his sending troops west, but it is all speculation, and there is no conclusion. Mr. Hong, what do you think? ”

"In the opinion of the minister,......。"

"How?"

Hong Jixun asked Deng She to take out the global map in his abdomen, spread it on the ground, get up and leave his position, and take a closer look. After watching it for a long time, he said: "When Polo provoked Jining this time, he suddenly sent troops west, which is indeed a bit strange and treacherous. But in the opinion of the minister, the minister thinks that his intentions should be nothing more than three. ”

"I want to hear about it."

"First, there is Wutai Mountain between Datong and Jining Road, if you go directly south from Datong, the road is not easy to walk. Polo sent his army west, perhaps to take a shortcut and bypass Mount Wutai to reinforce the military horses he had sent to Jining. Second, it is also possible that he set up a suspicious formation and made a gesture of wanting to enter Shaanxi to the west, so as to attract Chahan's attention and urge Chahan to divide his troops and deploy defenses, so as to reduce the pressure on his front line and help his front line headquarters to quickly capture Jining. And the third, the third,......。 ”

"What about the third?"

"Third, maybe, Polo does have the intention of entering Shaanxi in the west."

Li Shousheng said: "'West into Shaanxi'? To the south of Datong is Jining, and to the west is Shaanxi. Jining and Shaanxi are now mostly in the hands of Chahan. When it comes to the number of horses, Polo is not as good as Chahan; When it comes to soldiers, he is still inferior to Chahan; When it comes to food sufficiency, it is still not as good as Chahan. But if this inference is based on Mr., then Polo just wants to fight on two fronts? He wouldn't be that stupid, would he? ”

Hong Jixun's first and second inferences are possible, but his third inference is too bold. Polo is not as good as Chahan, and it is already very difficult to attack Jining alone, how can it be possible to go both ways, while fighting Jining, and at the same time going to Shaanxi? Moreover, he had five thousand men on both armies. It is a taboo for soldiers to divide their troops into multiple ways against a strong enemy. What's more, the two military horses are not prioritized? Clearly self-defeating. It's even more impossible. Li Shousheng thought that Polo would not be like this.

Although Hong Jixun put forward this inference, as far as he is concerned, he is actually inaccurate about it. did not refute Li Shousheng.

After discussing it for a while, everyone felt like a cloud, because of the lack of information, they couldn't guess for a while. Deng She changed the topic and said, "Since I can't guess it, let's not talk about this for now." Wait for more information, and then discuss. Sir, would you like to tell me what you thought about the last time we discussed it? ”

"As for the matter discussed with the lord last time, the minister's thoughts are not yet mature."

"It's okay, just tell me about it."

Hong Jixun returned to his seat, took a sip of tea, and said: "If Chahan really intends to take Polo first, and Chahan and Polo will fight more fiercely this time, then how should I Yidu act?" Chen Side has two strategies. One way can be called following the rules, and all the way can be called a roundabout side attack. ”

"What is conformity?"

"Out of Jinan, cross the Yellow River, attack Gaotang, Dongchang and other roads with elite soldiers, take the opportunity to recover the lost territory of Tianfeng, and expand the sphere of influence of our Yidu. This strategy has an advantage and a disadvantage. ”

Dongchang Road is just south of Gaotang Prefecture, and the two places are adjacent.

Deng She asked, "What are the benefits?" ”

Hong Jixun replied: "The good thing is that this plan follows the rules. Gaotang Prefecture and Dongchang Road are adjacent to Jinan, and expand to the south and north. After our army conquered these two places, Jinan could be the apex in the back, and then the beneficial capital could be the pillar. It's like an umbrella, retractable and retractable. If the situation is favorable to us, our army can continue to expand; If the situation is not in my favor, it can be contracted. There won't be much risk. ”

"What's the downside?"

"Chahan has a lot of military horses in Gaotang Prefecture and Dongchang Road. If our army wants to attack these two places, it will also need to force the Yellow River. Even if the war goes well, there will definitely be considerable losses. ”

"It's a matter of routine, I get it. What about roundabouts? And why? ”

"Roundabout side-attack, as the name suggests. If our army hits Gaotang Prefecture, it will be a straight line attack; If it's a roundabout side-attack, it's a curve attack. ”

"What's a curve attack?"

"Go to Tai'an, take Jining."

"Take Jining?"

Jining Road is at the junction of Tai'an Prefecture and is located in the southwest of Tai'an. To the north is Dongping Road, and to the north is Dongchang Road. Surabaya, Qufu, Yanzhou, Rencheng, Peixian and other places are under the jurisdiction of Jining Road.

When Deng She heard this, he couldn't help but turn his head and glanced at Li Shousheng. Previously, when Li Shousheng sent the secret report to Malage, Deng She asked him for his opinion, and he once suggested that if it was true that Chahan wanted to take Polo first, Yidu might as well take advantage of the situation to attack Jining. The reason is that according to intelligence, there are not many Chahan troops on Jining Road.

Hong Jixun continued: "This strategy has two advantages, but also two disadvantages. ”

"What's in it for you?"

"There is a river between Gaotang Prefecture and my Jinan, and it is not easy to cross it. However, between Jining Road and our Tai'an, there is no river that is difficult to cross, which is conducive to the march of our army. This is one of them.

Second, Jining's status is very important, and it is an important place for north-south transfer. Its place is connected to the river and Huai in the south, and the river and Ji in the north. If this place can be taken, then our army can go south to Xuzhou; To the southwest, it can enter Henan; To the northwest, it can threaten Shanxi. If it is closed, it is the lock key, and if it is opened, it is cleared. Offensive and defensible.

"It is for the East to have something to do, and it will fight for Jining. Previously, Chahan invaded my Shandong, and he also took Jining first. Therefore, if our army wants to take advantage of the situation to counterattack now, Jining will inevitably be contested. ”

As Hong Jixun analyzed, Jining's strategic position is very important. If Yidu can capture Jining, then, in the future battle against Chahan, the situation will be slightly reversed, from pure passive defense to offensive and defensible. Deng She's face sank like water, his voice did not move, and he asked, "What are the disadvantages?" ”

"Between Jining and my Tai'an, although there is no big river separation, but at the border of the southeast of Jining, there is a Daze ,—— Shanyang Lake. If our army wants to enter Jining, there is only one way to go, that is, Yanzhou on the banks of the Surabaya River and Rencheng on the north side of Shanyang Lake. Although Lord Li heard the information that Chahan did not have many troops in Jining, there were also 10,000 people. It is expected that he will definitely have heavy troops stationed in these two places, and the precautions will definitely be very strict. Our army has no tricks to offer, and must only be hard-hitting. If we can't attack quickly and fight for a long time, when Chahan reacts and his follow-up reinforcements arrive, then our army is afraid that it will inevitably work in vain, and there will be a situation where the labor and salary of the division will be in vain. ”

"That's one of the drawbacks. What about the second disadvantage? ”

Second, Jining is Dongping Road to the north, Henan to the south, and Caozhou and Daming Road to the west. These places are now under the control of Chahan. Even if our army can win a quick victory, without waiting for Chahan to react and before his reinforcements from all over the country arrive, our army has successfully captured Jining, but it is easy to defeat it, but it will definitely be difficult to hold it. There are enemies on three sides, and it is like a lone army going deep. It's going to be stressful. ”

Dunsher laughed.

Hong Jixun and the others couldn't help but be stunned. Hong Jixun asked, "Why is the lord laughing?" ”

"What the gentleman has seen, is with me!"

Hong Jixun and the others were even more stunned. Li Shousheng asked, "What does the lord mean by this?" ”

Deng She didn't answer first, and said, "I went out of the city today and went to Niujia Village in the afternoon. I saw a protrusion in the courtyard of a family, and there was a bulge in the corner of the chicken pen. At the time, I didn't understand, so I asked the man what he was doing by putting a bump in the corner. The man replied that it was because he was afraid that the chickens would peck at the wall. ”

Rao is Hong Jixun is extremely smart, and he is also the second Zhang King Kong who was confused, and asked in confusion: "The lord suddenly mentioned this matter, but why?" Dare to ask, but what is the meaning? ”

"The chicken pen is surrounded by courtyard walls on both sides, and fences on both sides. It's like getting in the way on all sides. Mr. Hong, do you think this situation of obstruction on all sides looks familiar? ”

"What do you mean? ......, like me Yidu? ”

"Exactly! I have enemies on both sides, and the sea on both sides, so aren't there obstacles on all sides? How similar to that chicken pen! ”

Zhao Guo suddenly realized, and said: "If I am like the chicken pen, then we are the chickens in the circle." ”

"Not bad at all. The family in Niujia Village was afraid that the chickens would peck at the wall, so they specially built a bulge in the corner of the wall. I would like to ask you, where is the corner of my chicken pen in Yidu? ”

Li Shousheng said: "Hejian Road in the north and Jining Road in the south. ”

"Yes! If the blockade of Chahan is compared to a wall, the northernmost side of the wall is Hejian Road, and the southernmost side is Jining Road. If our army wants to break this blockade, in my opinion, the best course of action is not to 'follow the rules'. We shouldn't go to Gaotang State. Gaotang Prefecture is in the middle of this blockade line, even if our army can defeat it, once it comes, it will be like hitting a wall. I've only heard of digging the foot of a wall, but I've never heard of doing it from the middle. If you start from the middle, the target is too big, and the wall will definitely collapse under one blow. And if this blockade of Chahan collapses, the pressure is too great.

"Second, Gaotang Prefecture stands out, and there is a river separated from me behind it, which is just like a rafter at the beginning, which must be difficult to hold for a long time. How did our army recover Jinan? Isn't it because Jinan and our Yidu are on the same side of the river, which is beneficial to our army? My Jinan is the Gaotang Prefecture of Chahan! ”

"Lord, lord do you want to?"

"I have already decided, when it is confirmed that Chahan really wants to take Polo first, our army will take the opportunity to capture Jining!"

"But, but, Mr. Hong said that if our army captures Jining, although there are two benefits, there are also two disadvantages!"

"Shandong, the land of four wars. This place is not as dangerous as Guannai, the depth is shallow, and there are many plains and hills, and even the larger lakes and forests are not there, which is too unsuitable to guard. Those who have never won Shandong, if they want to achieve great things, can only continue to expand outward, and must not rest on their laurels. Although there are two drawbacks in capturing Jining, it is much better than sitting on a mountain and watching the tiger fight without any action! ”

Deng She's words seemed to be high-spirited, but in fact, it contained the meaning, it was obvious that it was a helpless move to capture Jining.

If you want to develop and gain a firm foothold in Yidu, it is not enough to simply defend the capital. Although it is said that Yidu has only experienced war, if Chahan really goes to war with Polo, this opportunity must still be seized. Otherwise, when Chahan solves Polo, Yidu's future will be self-evident.

Zhao Guo said: "What the lord and the lord said is very true. However, it is good to say that our army takes Gaotang Prefecture, for example, if Jining is captured, as Mr. Hong said, even if it is defeated, it will be like a lone army going deep. Judging from the current situation of my Yidu, the military horses are barely enough, but the grain is straw? ”

Yidu was short of food and would not be able to support a military campaign for too long. "I've thought about it too. When I went out of the city today, I saw that the wheat seedlings in the countryside were growing well, and most of them were gradually beginning to recover. It's the end of March. If our army is able to capture Jining, no matter how difficult it is, as long as we hold out for two or three months and wait for the autumn harvest, the situation should improve. ”

He asked Hong Jixun and said, "What does Mr. think?" ”

Hong Jixun closed his eyes, thought for a while, opened his eyes again, and said: "The lord uses the chicken pen as a metaphor for Yidu, which is very vivid and appropriate. In this way, it seems that only taking Jining first is the best policy. Everyone was deliberating, and the guards outside the hall came in and reported: "Lord Qi, there is a person from the general administration department who asks to see you outside the courtyard." ”

"What?"

"It is said that most of them have an urgent report."