This article was first published in Mingyang Pin Library, please indicate the author and source for reprinting.

In April 1898, the third year of Guangxing, war broke out, between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, between the new empire of America and the old empire of Spain, between two armies of great disparity in quality and quantity.

The trigger was the explosion of the American battleship USS Maine in the port of Havana, Cuba. At that time, the Cuban insurgents were skillfully maneuvering with the local Spanish colonial army, and the United States, which had always harbored undivided thoughts about Cuba, sent a battleship of nearly 7,000 tons to the port of Havana for a "goodwill visit." This was obviously a provocation. On the night of 25 February 1898, the "Maine," which had been in the port of Havana for a whole month in the name of "protecting overseas Chinese," suddenly exploded twice in succession. Under the deliberate guidance of the American media, most of the American public believed that the "Maine" incident was indeed committed by the Spaniards, and the Admiralty's investigation showed that the "Maine" was detonated by a mine placed at the bottom of the battleship to detonate the former ammunition depot, which aroused the people's enthusiasm for war even more, and on April 18, President William McKinley (reigned in 1897~1901) successfully obtained congressional authorization for war, and the situation was about to erupt. On 21 April, the Spanish Government formally rejected the United States Government's ultimatum calling on it to abandon Cuba, and war finally and inevitably broke out.

On 23 April, the US Asian Squadron, commanded by Commodore George Dewey, entered the waters of Mirs Bay, Guangdong, 30 nautical miles from Hong Kong.

When the Imperial Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs Zhang Zhigao learned of the situation, he immediately hurried to the Prime Minister's Office with a telegram from the US Consulate in Guangzhou, where Prime Minister Wen Yi poked his head out to greet him from behind a large pile of documents on a thick oak table in the Prime Minister's office.

"The Spanish-American War broke out according to the original history, and there is no discrepancy in the specific time...... Wen Yi held the telegram in one hand, and the attendant officer on the side had already brought tea for Zhang Zhi.

"So, how do you respond to the request of the U.S. consulate?"

"Of course I will agree to them, but I should add a more reluctant tone in the callback to explain that we are taking the risk of agreeing to this matter in view of the close and extraordinary relationship between China and the United States."

"The target of the Asian detachment is the Philippines, and if we just watch the United States occupy the Philippines, won't there be a serious threatening colonial stronghold in our southeast direction?"

Wen Yi smiled and shook his head: "Now and for a period of time in the future, the main strategic direction of the United States is in the Atlantic, and it is impossible for them to put too much force in the Pacific Ocean, and the Philippines can at most become an outpost of the United States in the Pacific power circle." ”

"But aren't we now better than the United States in terms of naval strength? If, in the name of aiding Spain, we drive out the US Asian Detachment and seize the opportunity to seize the Philippines, we will have a key bridgehead in the Pacific Ocean, with the small islands of Micronesia in the east, Malaysia, Indonesia, and even Australia in the south, and French Indochina in the west. ”

"It's a key bridgehead, and it's going to be the focus of attention, and it's clear that the European powers feel threatened by their colonies in East and South Asia, that the United States will be angry at us, that we're going to make enemies everywhere, that all of this will be used by Russia, and that we have to have more allies or neutrals than enemies."

"At such a time, the military does not have a special request?" Zhang Zhigao suddenly poked out this sensitive topic.

"Liu Yun has been persuaded by me." Wen Yi said.

"Is the Reich Chancellor still subject to the Chief of the General Staff?" Zhang Zhigao raised this question intentionally or unintentionally, he was really a little ignorant of current affairs, but Wen Yi did not show displeasure, in fact, I don't know when Wen Yi's trust in Zhang Zhigao gradually outweighed his trust in Liu Yun.

"Our life and death are actually all in his hands, but if it were not for us, he would never have a bright future, you should understand."

Zhang Zhigao said with a straight face: "In a democratic country, there is no need for military tyrants, the fact of expanding the Praetorian Guard has already shown his selfishness, the Praetorian Guard only obeys the orders of the chief of the general staff and the commander of the Praetorian Guard, in fact, it has become his own private army, such a powerful force, enough to affect the cabinet and even the change of regime, is the most terrible hidden danger in our national system." ”

Wen Yi spread his hands helplessly: "So what?" Without his Praetorian Guard, our own security would be in question, the democratic system has just begun to be implemented, there are still many factors of instability, and situations may occur at any time......"

"The key problem is that you can't take away his power."

"It's good to know the way."

"In any case, there should be restrictions, for example, the placement of inspectors of the Ministry of Defense in the Praetorian Guard, and the issuance of a decree that the movement of troops above the Praetorian Guard level must be carried out only by a joint order of at least the Prime Minister, the Minister of Defense, the Chief of the General Staff, and the Commander of the Praetorian Guard......"

"I'll try, but you should hurry up and get to the U.S. Asian fleet."

Zhang Zhigao nodded: "Yes, I'll do it as soon as possible, I'm talking too much today, I'm just full of worries, and I don't vomit or feel unhappy." ”

"Go ahead, remember your duty, and besides, in front of me, don't worry about saying the wrong thing."

"Yes!"

As soon as Zhang Zhigao came out of the office of the Prime Minister's Office, he met Marshal Liu Yun, the chief of the General Staff with a dazzling military uniform, and almost didn't scare his heart and liver, and hurriedly nodded in greeting: "Lord Marshal." ”

"Zhigao, you're busy."

"Yes."

"When are you going to hold your son, let's wait too long, say hello to Xiao Luo for me."

"Thank you for your concern, I will convey it to Xiao Luo."

Liu Yun smiled at him and turned around and entered the prime minister's office.

Zhang Zhigao walked out of the gate of the Prime Minister's Office tremblingly, his forehead was immediately sweating, his legs were almost paralyzed, and he barely got into the carriage and ran back to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs with the support of the attendants outside.

"Chidaka!"

In front of the diplomatic department, Zhang Zhigao was almost frightened by his wife.

"What are you doing here?" The inside of Zhang Zhigao's shirt was already soaked with cold sweat.

"Passing by, what's wrong with you, your face is so ugly?" As he spoke, the hand of the Vice-Minister of Culture and Education of the Empire was already on the forehead of the Vice-Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Empire.

The frightened Zhang Zhigao gently pushed Luo Sulan's hand away: "It's okay, I'm fine, I'm still busy, go in first." ”

As he spoke, Zhang Zhigao trotted and disappeared behind the Roman columns of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

"Really, he's never been so panicked, hell? Look back and ask him. Luo Sulan muttered to herself, leading the attendant to the Second Branch Building of the Imperial Library across the courtyard from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

The perpetrator, who almost scared Zhang Zhigao unconscious, did not know that he had committed such a heinous crime, and Marshal Liu Yun walked straight into the office of the imperial prime minister, which was covered with hard oak floors, said hello and sat down.

"Did you see Chigo just now?" Wen Yi asked calmly, turned his head and ordered the attendant to serve a cup of Longjing tea.

"Well, what is he doing here?" Liu Yun put down his gorgeous marshal hat and loosened his neckline.

"The U.S. Asian Fleet sent a telegram through the consulate in Canton requesting refueling in Canton."

"It turned out to be a matter of the Asian Fleet, but it was just four cruisers plus two gunboats, and even a customs anti-smuggling ship, so to conquer the Philippines, the key is that the Spanish side is too weak."

"What do you think?"

"You've decided you want to help the Americans."

"Yes."

Liu Yun picked up the teacup and took a sip, sighed "good tea", and then turned to Wen Yi again: "We support the Americans, will there really be a real return?" ”

"One more friend is a reward, even if he never gave you even a penny for nothing. By the way, the navy's surveillance force along the coast of Guangdong is already in place. ”

"Of course, two battleships and six cruisers of the Zhenyang Fleet are cruising near Mirs Bay, and as long as we give the order, we can easily crush the American fleet, and then sail straight to Manila Bay and blast the rotten Spanish battleships into garbage, of course, you won't agree, and I won't do that."

"We live in the cracks of the great powers' struggle for hegemony, and we must be careful in everything, and I have already said many times about the Philippines, so there is no need to repeat it."

"Of course, I won't dwell on the same matter repeatedly, I'm here to understand the attitude of the great powers towards the territorial dispute between China and Russia - I think you must have carefully analyzed it."

Wen Yi thought for ten seconds, took a sip of low-grade green tea, and then talked eloquently: "In this era, the only powers that can really have a say in the contradictions between China and Russia are Britain, France, and Germany. Speaking of Britain, according to the comprehensive analysis of the Intelligence Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Strategic Research Committee directly under the Cabinet, Britain does not want to see a strong China in the Far East, let alone let China exist as a leader in East Asia, threatening Britain's colonial interests in the Far East. Britain faced the threat of Germany's vigorous naval development in Europe, had certain conflicts with Germany and France over the partition of Africa, and had recently had conflicts with the local Boer states in southern Africa[Note 1], and it is estimated that for a long time there was no possibility of putting a stronger force into the Far East. Under these circumstances, Britain naturally hoped that Russia would defeat China in one fell swoop and eliminate this worry for Britain, so in recent years, Britain has provided Russia with a lot of financial and military support, and a number of advanced weapons, including the Maxim machine gun, have been equipped with the Russian army one after another, so that the quality of the Russian army's equipment has been greatly improved. In short, Britain tried to slay the dragon with a bear. ”

"Since the defeat of France in the Franco-Prussian War, France has always hoped to get Russian support in the East in order to achieve a two-sided posture against Germany, and in recent years, the Russo-French alliance has gradually been reached, which has put considerable pressure on Germany. France, however, did not want Russia to fight against China, because this might cause Russia to draw troops from Europe and reduce pressure on Germany, which would be very detrimental to France's security. Recently, France has been engaged in peace mediation between our country and Russia, exerting pressure on both sides, and in particular threatening to reduce loans against Russia, and because of the dependence of Russian state finance and industrial and commercial capital on French loans, Russia has been forced to make a slight concession and begin to agree to low-level official contacts with China to discuss all border issues between the two countries, including the territory on the north bank of the Heilongjiang River. Therefore, judging from France's attitude, it hopes that the two sides will solve the problem through peaceful means. ”

Germany's attitude was clear, that is, it hoped that the outbreak of the Sino-Russian war would force Russia to withdraw troops from Europe and reduce the pressure on Germany on the Eastern Front, so that it could free up against France. Judging from the information provided by Zhang Zhigao, some important members of Germany have more than once hinted privately that they hope that China will inflict a heavy blow on Russia in the Far East and achieve a final victory. I think the Germans also had the implication that the expectation that we would pose a serious threat to Russia in the Far East, that Russia would be forced to defend itself on both sides, unable to deal with Germany with all its might, would provide an opportunity for a de facto alliance. However, I feel that, with the prospects of our industrial and economic development, it is not appropriate for the next ten to twenty years to get involved in the disputes between the European powers, and we should wait for them to kill each other and seriously weaken each other, and then take the opportunity to expand our power, when our industrial power should be able to support our medium-sized expansion in the western Pacific and the Indian Ocean. ”

"The United States has been very close to us in recent years, and although the United States cannot give us substantial support, with its strong industrial economy, sooner or later it will exert its unique control on the world stage, and cooperation with the United States will be able to lay the foundations of international politics for our future expansion – even if the nature of it will change at that time. Judging from the present stage, the United States' basic attitude toward the Sino-Russian dispute is impartial, and it advocates a peaceful settlement by means of consultation, but it expresses dissatisfaction with Russia's blatant occupation of Japan's Hokkaido, and especially opposes Britain, France, and Germany forcing Japan to accept a treaty favorable to Russia, holding that this tramples on the legitimate rights of an independent country and is a shameless act of power. ”

Liu Yun nodded while listening, and felt that everything was quite in tune: "Very good, the international situation is very favorable to us, except for Britain, it is difficult for other powers to substantially support Russia in the war against China, and Germany is even very likely to support us in some aspects." Although Britain supports Russia, the support it can provide should be very limited, after all, Britain itself also needs to develop a strong navy to maintain its colonial empire, to guard against the rising German Empire, the budget is always limited, it is impossible to take out a large part of the support for the Russians to fight China, compared with China's distant and uninfluential threat, Germany's threat to Britain is much more urgent and severe. We must regain the lost territory, fight when and where we want, force Russia to spit out all the Chinese territory that we swallowed decades ago, and if possible, ask for as much additional gain as possible, and let Russia lie down and sue us for peace, and believe me, my elite army and navy are fully capable of doing it. Just let us wait until after 1904 and give us a suitable excuse, no, let us make a suitable excuse then, and the fuse of the war is subordinate to the war itself......"

Wen Yi looked at Liu Yun and began to get senselessly excited again, and immediately poured a basin of cold water: "Have you considered the weak defense in the direction of Xinjiang?" By 1904, our train could only go as far west as Lanzhou, and from Lanzhou to the Ili outpost had to pass nearly 1,500 kilometers through the Gobi, quicksand, and high mountains and snowy mountains. Compared with the difficulties caused by the long supply line from Moscow to Vladivostok, the Russians can assemble strong and well-supplied troops in Central Asia to carry out a large-scale invasion of Xinjiang, and I believe that they will face great difficulties at that time, and there is one situation that we do not want to see - Russia has invaded a large area of Xinjiang and used it as a threat in exchange for the cessation of our military operations on the north bank of the Heilongjiang River. ”

"In any case, the lost territory in the northeast must be recovered, and the Xinjiang side should launch a reclamation movement as much as possible, immigrate Han people to Xinjiang's important agricultural and mineral areas in large numbers, organize them according to military establishments, and combine soldiers and civilians, cultivate and mine in peacetime, conduct regular drills, and mobilize strong men to participate in ......the war when necessary."

"It's a reference to the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps in our time, but what about the land? As a result of the land reform, Xinjiang's fertile land has its own owner, and there is a fixed development plan for mineral resources......"

Liu Yun interrupted Wen Yi impatiently: "For the sake of Xinjiang's land to be intact, there is no way to sacrifice the interests of the locals, the Uyghurs, Kazakhs, and Tajiks in Xinjiang are all unreliable, and they will betray at any time, just like their consistent performance for decades, it is only when the land is allocated to the Production and Construction Corps that can serve us that it is the best use of everything." The migration of the population will also promote the development of new cultivated land and new minerals, and the advanced production methods and organizational and management experience they bring with them from the interior can fundamentally drive Xinjiang's economic development......"

"If inappropriate measures are taken against the locals, it will cause unnecessary unrest, and besides, since all citizens of the empire are equal, how can the ownership of land be arbitrarily changed because of military necessity?"

"If there are people who dare to stir up, they will be killed, for the sake of the empire as a whole, someone must be sacrificed, and moreover, they will not take the land for free, and they will naturally be given appropriate compensation, which requires the literati of your cabinet to plan and solve it concretely."

"Everything should have been planned by our cabinet." Wen Yi wanted to yell like this, but he held back, he didn't have the guts yet.

"We'll plan it, but the military can't act on its own until the cabinet comes up with a concrete plan, otherwise I can't afford the consequences."

"I'll take care of everything." Liu Yun's cold eyes almost pierced Wen Yi, but he immediately smiled, stepped forward and patted Wen Yi's shoulder, causing Wen Yi's muscles and skin to spasm at the same time.

"Just kidding, I'm just giving you an opinion, how to do it, of course the military must obey the decision of the cabinet, otherwise it won't be a military interference, I can't afford such a big crime!"

Wen Yi's thumb pressed his index finger, and there was sweat on his fingertips, but he quickly realized his role and smiled and nodded to Liu Yun: "It's good if you understand, we have to be one as one." ”

"Of course, when have we ever disagreed?"

"No, of course not."

"Don't worry too much, get busy, I'm going to be busy too." Liu Yun grabbed the marshal's hat and put it on, and walked straight out of the prime minister's office.

With the monotonous sound of the door closing, Wen Yi raised his teacup and was about to swallow it, when he inadvertently looked out the window and found that on the eye-catching cherry blossom tree in the courtyard, the brilliant petals were falling one after another.