Things are similar to Roosevelt's judgment, that is, this meeting is important to Yan Shao, but it is not so important that it must be reached.

Especially when this meeting has changed from being beneficial to China to being harmful to China.

"According to the judgment of the navy, if we want to have a local advantage over Britain in Asia, especially in East Asia, the size of the defense navy must reach close to two-thirds of that of Britain, so we have no possibility of making concessions..."

In his own home, looking at Caterina and Elainor, who had just returned from fitness, Yan Shao explained.

Not long ago, diplomats from various countries came to visit one after another, which can be said to have annoyed Yan Shao and them. The British and French, in particular, are like kraft candy, and the Japanese don't mean to come to the door, perhaps because they know that even if they come, they may not get any satisfactory results, and in the end, it may make things worse.

But this is indeed the case, if it is really the Japanese who came, Yan Shao would never agree―――――― of course, even if the Japanese did not come, Yan Shao did not intend to give in, after all, in this matter, Yan Shao did not have room to back down.

"But why do you have to be two-thirds, not half?"

Wiping the sweat off her neck, Elano said with some curiosity. Because she is wearing the same sports corset as Caterina, Elino's figure looks unusually sexy at this moment.

In fact, this kind of sports atmosphere can also be said to be set off by Katarina from a certain point of view.

Albeit in the past. My family has always been very sports-friendly. But it's not very fanatical, but since Katarina started her own slimming plan, the family has also started to take action. Especially Elaline, who is already very plump. I even run to the gym every day, even when I am already busy at work.

This can't help but make people sigh at a sentence from later generations, 'For women, slimming is everything'...

At least in the afterlife, there was a woman who said that.

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"This is also a helpless thing." Hearing Elano's question, Yan Shao said a little helplessly. "Although in terms of the performance and technological advancement of equipment, the gap between us and Europe and the United States is not very large. However, in terms of the training of naval forces, the newly established National Defense Navy does not have any advantages, so if it is a fair showdown. In a one-to-one battle, according to the judgment of the navy, the probability that the defense navy will lose is almost as high as about eighty percent..."

"Therefore, in order to gain local advantage, the size of the navy must be two-thirds the size of the British. This was the only way to ensure that the Navy had enough time to destroy the British fleet in the Asian region. At the same time, when the British Home Fleet arrived, it had enough strength to annihilate the British Home Fleet. ”

This is also a reason why Yan Shao is reluctant to make concessions, after all, the conditions put forward by both Britain and the United States are too harsh, and they do not meet Yan Shao's conditions at all. In that case, let's just leave it at ease.

Anyway, even if it was an arms race, Yan Shao didn't think he would lose.

Even if they really put it together, maybe the British will be the first to collapse. After all, Britain's finances are not very good right now. If we continue to build a ship according to Germany at that time, as we did in the First World War. On the condition of building two ships by themselves, the British did not have that kind of financial ability at all―――――― yes, now the financial income of the British is indeed higher than before the war, and has even reached the point of about one billion pounds, and before the war, the financial income of the British was only one or two hundred million pounds.

But now the cost of a battleship has become unusually high.

Even for the Commune government, the cost of a super-dreadnought is very high. It almost reached the point of five million pounds, and this is still due to the relatively low labor costs of the national government.

If it were British, a battleship of the same size would cost at least more than 6 million pounds, which was almost more than 1 million pounds higher than the cost of the Commune government.

Of course, if this were the case, the national government would not have much advantage. After all, it's only a million pounds, and even if you build ten ships, it's only ten million pounds. This is an advantage, but it is not a cost advantage.

Moreover, no matter how great the financial pressure of the British government is, it is still 900 million or 1 billion yuan a year, which is always much stronger than the more than 200 million yuan of the national government.

But!

For Yan Shao, whether the Washington meeting is successful or not, Yan Shao is already planning to publish his findings in the Middle East. As long as there are oil resources in the Middle East, then the national government can have an asymmetric advantage over Britain in terms of finance―――――― although the overall fiscal revenue of the national government will certainly not be as good as that of the British, but this part of the income can almost be said to be picked up for nothing.

The British, on the other hand, still need to take on a very large amount of debt every year, and the annual repayment of principal and interest alone is an astronomical amount. Add to this a series of burdens after the end of the war.

One can imagine how big the advantages of the national government are.

Even if the oil fields in the Middle East can bring in only 100 million pounds, it will be enough for the government to build 20 super-dreadnoughts every year...

Moreover, in that part of the Middle East, it can almost be said that a considerable part of the world's oil resources are concentrated―――――― not counting the Xinjiang region in the interior of the Kuomintang government, as well as the oil resources in the northeast region, some other regions, and Siberia and Central Asia.

In addition to the oil resources on the seabed, these oil resources can even be said to account for more than half of the world's onshore oil and gas resources.

With these. The annual revenue of the national government may be an astronomical amount...

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Listening to Yan Shao's words, Elaline nodded slightly. I understood what Yan Shao meant, but she was still a little worried. "And if the British and Americans are not going to budge, are you really going to turn the other cheek with them?"

"That's right..."Yan Shao nodded. If they really don't budge, then we have only one way to turn around..."

Speaking of this, Yan Shao looked at Elaine. "By the way, do you have a frown about the U.S. tariffs?"

"Somewhat," replied Elaine. According to the information we have received from within the U.S. government, there is currently a very strict isolationism within the U.S. government, and at the same time, in order to be able to get a larger share of the domestic market for domestic products. The Americans are planning to raise the current tariffs, and of course, this is only a preliminary idea, but it seems to have been approved by many in the U.S. government..."

Speaking of which. Elanon's face looked slightly worried.

Although at present, Yushi Group has developed into a very large multinational group. But in fact, the main business of Yushi Group is very concentrated. For example, the sales of the automobile industry are basically concentrated in Europe and the United States, especially the United States is the main market of Yushi Group.

If the U.S. government really intends to raise tariffs, then it will be a big blow to the Rainstone Group...

On the other hand, after hearing Elanon's answer, Yan Shao patted her on the shoulder. "Let's first contact those politicians in the United States who are related to us, no matter what, we can't let this bill pass, even if it can't be messed up. At least let him postpone the passage guò in the meantime. We can set up some factories in the United States to carry out production, although this will affect some domestic employment, but at least avoid the impact of tariffs. ”

Hearing Yan Shao say this, Elano nodded slightly and didn't say anything more.

In fact, Yan Shao still has some impressions of this matter. He remembers that the Americans raised tariffs, which led to the most famous Great Depression in history. As for how to solve this matter, Yan Shao himself is not very methodical at present.

Of course, Yan Shao remembered this wrongly, because although it was true that the Great Depression only started in the twenties, it was actually in the late twenties, that is, in '29. The U.S. government's practice of raising tariffs only began in the 30s.

This bill is the more famous Smoot-Hawley tariff law in history.

The bill was billed by Republican Senator Reed Brown from Utah? Smoot, and Rep. Wells, a Republican from Oregon? Co-sponsored by C. Hawley. Before that, Herbert? President Hoover had asked Congress to lower tariff rates, but Congress did the opposite and raised them. Although many economists urged President Hoover to veto the bill, he signed it into law. Part of this was due to one of Hoover's many campaign promises made in 1928 when he ran for president―――――― to raise import tariffs on farm produce to help stranded farmers.

The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was passed on 17 June 1930 by Herbert Hawley? President Hoover signed it into law, raising tariffs on more than 2,000 imports to an all-time high. In the United States at the time, 1,028 economists signed a petition to boycott the bill.

It is important to note that there are many things in this world that are not one-sided. For example, if an American raises his own tariffs, in later generations he may only allow himself to do certain things, but he will never allow others to imitate himself to do some things.

But in this era, it is clear that Americans do not have the solipsistic status of later generations.

As a result, after the bill was passed, many countries took retaliatory tariffs against the United States, causing both imports and exports to plummet by more than 50 percent.

In 1930, Canada was the first to impose new tariffs on 16 products, accounting for 30 percent of total U.S. exports to Canada. Canada then began to seek closer economic ties with the British Commonwealth. France and Britain also protested and began to develop new trade channels. Germany, on the other hand, is focusing on building a self-sufficient economy. U.S. imports plummeted 66 percent from $4.4 billion in 1929 to $1.5 billion in 1933, while exports plummeted 61 percent from $5.4 billion to $2.1 billion. The decline was more than the 50% decline in GDP over the same period. Some economists believe that the Smoot-Hawley Act was the catalyst for a sharp decline in trade between the United States and Europe from an all-time high in 1929 to a record low in 1932―――――― which coincided with the onset of the Great Depression.

The impact of the Great Recession was almost decisive. It can also be said to be fatal.

During the Great Recession, almost all countries were affected. Among them, the most influential are countries like the United States and Germany, especially Germany, because of the Great Recession, coupled with the humiliation of the First World War, brought Hitler, the man known as the devil.

Of course, there are also countries that were not deeply affected by the Great Depression, such as Japan.

In the original history. Japan's minister of Daizang, Takahashi Shikiyo, was the first official to adopt Keynesianism. First, a large amount of fiscal policy, including deficit spending, was used to stimulate the economy. Second. Devalue the yen. Takahashi is Kiyotsu guò The Bank of Japan carries out deficit spending and minimizes the ensuing inflationary pressures. Econometric studies have shown that these fiscal stimulus are effective.

The depreciation of the currency had an immediate effect. Japanese textiles have replaced British textiles as the number one export market. It has to be said that in Japan's modern history, there were indeed many extremely outstanding talents, in 1933. Japan has emerged from the depression. By 1934. Takahashi is aware of the danger that the economy may overheat. It was in this context that Takahashi made a very wise but also stupid decision in a certain way―――――― in order to avoid inflation, he cut the deficit on weapons and armaments.

I believe everyone knows exactly how powerful the right-wingers in Japan are. It was clear that the right-wingers would never allow such a decision to reduce armament spending, so Takahashi Kiyoshi's approach led to a strong negative reaction from the nationalists, especially the military, and to the outbreak of the '226 Incident'. Takahashi is Kiyoshi's assassination. This has triggered a chilling effect among the Japanese civilian bureaucracy. From 1934 onwards, the army's control over the government continued to increase. Instead of reducing deficit spending, the government has not cut its deficit spending. On the contrary, the price control and rationing program was carried out, and the consequences of this could almost be called catastrophic.

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In fact, Yan Shao himself did not have any good ways to deal with the Great Depression, and the only way was to increase investment in infrastructure facilities to find ways to boost the economy.

This has been historically effective, especially for China.

After all, in Europe or the United States, roads and other facilities have been almost built. No matter how much you fix it, you can't get many tricks, but China is different. No matter how much the government could build railways and roads, you must know that even in later generations, China had to reach the standard of 100,000 kilometers of railways for many years.

And the national government of this period, six years obviously could not meet this standard...

In other words, there are still many railways and highways that have not been repaired by the Nationalist Government, and it is estimated that even if the Nationalist Government is allowed to repair them for another 100 years, there will be absolutely no problem.

Therefore, Yan Shao does not have to worry about this aspect at all, as for the funds needed to build the road or something, as long as the oil in the Middle East is dug up, there is naturally nothing to worry about.

In fact, Yan Shao has considered whether to abdicate before the Great Depression comes, give up his position to the successor, and let the successor bear the responsibility brought by the Great Depression―――――― at least one thing Yan Shao is still very clear, that is, the impact of the Great Depression will be comprehensive, and even China is unlikely to avoid the impact of the Great Depression.

And the Great Depression will inevitably bring about a considerable amount of unemployment and other things.

At the same time, Yan Shao also knows one thing, that is, no matter how high Yan Shao's prestige is, the people will support him only if he will not damage the people's lives. If it is said that under Yan Shao's rule, the lives of the people have declined a lot, it is difficult to say whether the people will still remain loyal to Yan Shao.

Therefore, if the Great Depression period is avoided, then at least Yan Shao does not need to bear the responsibility in this regard.

But...

It's a bit tricky to do that.

What's more, since Yan Shao has promised his countrymen that it will take twenty years to rebuild the country into a brand-new empire, what is the matter with his temporary layoff?

Even if he really faces any difficulties in the future, Yan Shao should face them bravely, instead of retreating from the battle and letting others go up to the top post...

Of course, all of the above is only in the event of a Great Depression, and if the Great Depression does not come, it will not have to be so.

However, judging from Yan Shao's experience, this kind of thing is obviously inevitable. What Yan Shao had to do was to make the preparations that should be made before the Great Depression came. Minimize the impact on the entire country.

On the other hand, just when Yan Shao was still having a little headache about the bill that the US government was planning to withdraw, seeing that the meeting had been at an impasse, Wilson seemed to have decided to make a certain compromise... (To be continued......)