Episode 189 The choice between tigers and wolves

After listening to Xiang Xiaoqiang's words, Zhu Yourong looked at him with blurred eyes, and after a while, she sighed:

"It's ...... I'm glad you see it that way...... I'm glad we have a common language for this kind of thing. You know, now not only we Ming, but also many Westerners can't see Germany correctly...... They only saw that Britain, the United States, and France were in deep crisis, and at the same time they saw the miracle of Germany's rise against the trend, and they judged that the Anglo-American model had declined, and the German model would inevitably become a new trend in history...... In fact, there is only a little bit of truth in this world, and once you understand it thoroughly, many complex problems can be seen through at a glance...... Well, in this way, you also support our initiative to join the 'non-interference agreement'? ”

Xiang Xiaoqiang was stunned, groaned for a while, frowned and said slowly:

"This ...... Not necessarily. Although we want to follow the Anglo-American path in the long run, we do not necessarily need to take the initiative to participate in the 'Non-Interference Committee' at the moment. Britain doesn't necessarily want us to participate. ”

Zhu Yourong raised his head from his arms and asked:

"Why?"

Xiang Xiaoqiang squinted his eyes and said while thinking:

"This time the Spanish Civil War, on one side there were fascists, and on the other side there were Bolsheviks...... It can be said that the two ends are extreme, and Britain and France are in the middle. You say that Britain and France, these intermediate countries, who do they want to win? ”

Zhu Yourong heard some signs from his words, flickered his eyelashes twice, and also thought.

"Anglo-French hope ......" she said suddenly, but she was not sure, and muttered, "Anglo-French hope...... Hope ......"

Xiang Xiaoqiang looked at her blank appearance, and said with a smile:

"Okay, it's hard to guess in Britain and France, let's not guess first, Your Majesty, you can say that we are Ming. As for Daming, who do we want to win? ”

Saying this, Zhu Yourong was even more at a loss.

She lowered her head, muttered to herself, and raised her head to look at Xiang Xiaoqiang again, wanting to say something, but she didn't say it after all.

Xiang Xiaoqiang says:

"Isn't there a feeling that no one wants to win? Do you wish there was a third option? ”

Zhu Yourong smiled and nodded:

"Well, that's how it feels. No choice. ”

Xiang Xiaoqiang smiled:

"It's the same feeling in Britain and France. One side is far left, the other side is far right, this is a choice between the tiger and the wolf, it is simply impossible to choose. This should also be the main original intention of their 'non-interference agreement', to leave Spain to the fate of the tiger and the wolf, and not to interfere themselves. Moreover, now they have a lot of problems at home, and they don't have much energy to meddle in foreign countries.

"But...... There is a saying called 'pulling the bias frame', that is, two people fight, and several other people pull, but only one person pulls, but this person suffers a lot more, and it seems that the people who pull the frame are kind...... Now that Britain and France are taking the lead in engaging in 'non-interference', it is a bit of a 'bias'. …… Although they don't like tigers and wolves, there is always one side that is less annoying. ”

Zhu Yourong looked at him, half-squinted his eyes, his eyes flashed, and for a while, he said softly:

"I see, you mean ......"

"The situation is very clear now, the Franco army controls 80% of the original Spanish army, and there are Italy and Germany semi-openly supporting it, giving it blood transfusions through Portugal. Although the republican army controlled only 20% of the original army, and the rest was a makeshift rabble, it held the capital's national gold reserves, which could constantly buy war materials from the international community...... In this case, the two sides are evenly matched, and even the government forces have the upper hand.

"At this time, if the international sources of weapons are strangled, and the major powers are not allowed to import war materials to both sides of the Spanish war, then it will only be the republican army that will suffer. Because although the embargoed weapons are the 'war parties', Germany and Italy will certainly not be affected by the 'non-intervention pact' and will still give Franco a blood transfusion. But the prime minister really can't buy weapons anymore. …… Isn't this pulling a bias frame? ”

"Yes, yes, yes, you have a good analysis, it makes sense...... Zhu Yourong exclaimed, "but...... How did you come up with this? Why can't Shen Ge Lao and them think of it? ”

Xiang Xiaoqiang sweated, proud and a little ashamed. Again, this is the benefit of seeing things in the next few decades. The situation in Spain is now changing rapidly, and there are countless possibilities every day, enough to make countless miscalculations by the world's best politicians. It was not until the end of the Spanish War three years later that it was possible to draw a more complete conclusion. At that time, looking back on the present, many things can suddenly be realized, and there will be a feeling of "hindsight". And Xiang Xiaoqiang relied on the information advantage of later generations, and now he has become "Zhuge Liang in advance".

Zhu Yourong continued:

"You mean...... the introduction of the 'non-interference agreement' not only reflects the difficulty of Britain and France in making a choice, but also reflects that Britain and France are relatively more accepting of Franco when it is difficult to choose?"

"Yes, it should be. At least in their eyes now, the Bolsheviks were more dangerous than the fascists and Nazis. This is also the traditional understanding of the international community. After all, fascism and the Nazis have only been around for a short time, and those old countries have not yet developed a habitual fear of them. Another point is that the facts have spoken. In the 20 years since Bolshevik Russia came to power, the international community has seen the fate of the Soviet peasants, the intellectuals, the officers, the cadres, the starvation of the peasants, the execution, the imprisonment, and the exile of the Soviet Union. There is no exact figure, but at least the nature is clear: the number of people starved, executed, and exiled in the Soviet Union in twenty years is greater than the number of people in the hundreds of years of Tsarist Russia combined. And it's much more.

"But on the side of the fascists and Nazis, the situation is much better. Especially Germany. Within a few years of the Bolsheviks' rise to power, the Russian economy collapsed and starved to death. A few years after the Nazis came to power, the people were immediately fed and clothed, and unemployment was drastically reduced. Soviets risked their lives if they wanted to escape the country, while Germans were free to travel abroad, and foreigners were free to travel into Germany. Compared to the Soviet Union, Germany is simply a paradise on earth. Italy didn't do as dazzling as Germany, but it was definitely a paradise compared to the Soviet Union.

"What the West is criticizing the Nazis and fascists now is nothing more than their authoritarian way of rule. Ruling the country by a single man is too much in conflict with Western values. But so far, these two countries have not turned the entire country into a concentration camp, as the Soviet Union did, and there has been no large-scale humanitarian catastrophe. These comparisons are still well known in Britain, France and other countries. …… Now Spain is faced with both fateful choices. Spain fell into the hands of the fascists, and we do not know what will happen to this land. Spain fell into the hands of the Bolsheviks, and what would happen to this land, one can imagine this. …… Presumably, the international community also felt that for the sake of the Spanish people, if they were destined to endure decades of authoritarian rule, it would be better off in the hands of Franco. ”

Zhu Yourong was stunned and said softly:

"Decades?"

"Ahem, decades."

When Xiang Xiaoqiang said this, he was also wondering whether the Spanish Civil War in history was a relatively good result. After all, Franco was quite rational after coming to power, did not let Spain get involved in World War II, and took Spain alone in the international environment surrounded by strong neighbors like the Cold War. The Spaniards enjoyed decades of peace in an environment where there was little turmoil. This should be a relatively good result.

Xiang Xiaoqiang continued:

"Perhaps the calculation of Britain, France and other countries is that after pulling the bias in this way, Franco will soon be in an advantageous position, the government army that lacks weapons supplies will soon be unsustainable, and the Spanish war will also end in a short time and restore peace and order. This should be the best possible result. …… However, it shouldn't be that good. The Spanish Civil War will continue, and if I guess it is good, it will become more and more fierce and brutal. ”

"Why?"

"The Soviet Union. Germany and Italy would support Franco, and the Soviet Union would support the government army. If the Soviet Union had given blood to the government army, the Spanish Civil War would have been fought for a long time. Both sides will bet in Spain until one of them feels like they can't make it and pulls out. ”

Zhu Yourong frowned and said:

"Well, no. The Soviet Union also signed a non-intervention pact. It's not going to tear it up. ”

Xiang Xiaoqiang was stunned, and then smiled:

"Probably...... We'll see, though. If Germany and Italy had been giving Franco blood transfusions, it would have been interesting to see if the Soviet Union would jump out and tear up the agreement...... Anyway, what I want to say is that because the Soviet Union is likely to jump out, give blood to the Spanish government army, rebalance the German and Italian forces, and let the Spanish civil war continue for a long time, it is necessary to have an Asian country outside the 'non-interference pact' to stand on the side of Germany and Italy on the ground. Only then would it be possible to upset the balance again and end the Spanish Civil War as soon as possible. And we happen to have signed a series of cooperation agreements with Germany, so it makes sense to stand with Germany at this time. What's more, our supplies are not shipped directly to Spain, but to Germany. As for whether Germany will keep it for its own use or give it away, this is not our responsibility.

"We don't have to take the initiative to join the non-interference pact in order to curry favor with Britain. Because Britain may need us to stay out of this agreement. At the same time, we can win the favor of Germany very much. Because at this moment, we did not go to the 'non-interference agreement' to join in the fun, but firmly stood with them to support Franco...... Of course, we can get rid of this kind of support very quickly. Because we're going to be fighting against Qing in a month, that's a good reason. Because of the war, we will cut off our investment in Spain because of the regular supplies provided for in the Mingde Agreement. This, Britain and Germany, they can't say anything. ”

……

That night, Xiang Xiaoqiang left the palace under the eyes of Zhu Yourong's almost adoring eyes. Zhu Yourong still had some concerns before, whether to let Xiang Xiaoqiang participate in national politics too much, he is a soldier after all. But now, Zhu Yourong is glad that he invited Xiang Xiaoqiang. She secretly decided that if she had such a problem in the future, she would ask Xiang Xiaoqiang more questions. She found that "Teacher Xiang" was sometimes more clever than the first minister.