Chapter Twenty-Seven: The Speech of the Delicious Wind Goose
Annan turned his attention back to the live broadcast of the delicious wind goose.
Obviously...... After just one night, the identities of the three of them were completely exposed.
Although he has already deduced from the reasoning, the key to this game is "incitement".
In other words, it is to drag people into the water.
Then the condition for their victory is no longer to hide their identity...... Instead, they use various means and words to persuade others to start killing people as well.
But the core difficulty of this game is not in the words.
— but about "time".
In each stage, there are less than five minutes to think. It is impossible for mediocre ritual participants to make decisions on the fly in each round - they must have some kind of "inertia".
In other words, almost all people adopt a blunt response strategy of "making decisions that remain the same when a point is not reached".
At the same time, because of the lack of time for public communication, it is almost impossible to obtain the right to speak by "using logical and sound reasoning to convince others".
Under such conditions, people will tend to make decisions on instinct.
On the flip side, just make them feel a sense of urgency.
The switch that decides everything will be pressed.
Annan narrowed his eyes slightly.
Whether it is discussing the possibility of the other party's behavior at the logical level, or thinking about the rationality of the other party's behavior at the human level, there will be mistakes and omissions. If you want to predetermine the behavior patterns of others, you must first determine the behavior strategy of the other person.
If you don't know what the other person wants, it's impossible to guess what the other person wants to do.
“…… I just don't know when the delicious wind goose will notice this. ”
The biggest difference between this game and the board game is that it actually causes death.
Although it's just a nightmare.
But the nightmare is an abstraction of historical record - it certainly has something different from reality, and yet its archetypal story must have happened at least once in reality.
Once when the success or failure of the game will determine their own life and death, everyone will adopt a relatively prudent and conservative strategy when they are calm.
"—unless they lose their minds first."
Longjing Tea wrote quickly in the barrage.
Although the success or failure of this game has nothing to do with whether the identity is exposed or not. But the conversation they had with each other on the first night would greatly reduce the credibility of their words.
In the case of not knowing who to vote for, passers-by will inevitably give priority to voting the three of them out.
Because they happen to be three people.
The game lasts for three days and four nights, and the first day, excluding the fact that nothing can be done, is exactly three rounds. This means that players can only cast just three people.
This is a critical equilibrium point for a dominant strategy.
As long as even four people are connected to each other on the first day, it is likely to upset the equilibrium. Because they can only cast three, there is a possibility that one person will kill two people without being thrown anyway.
"—after all, there were only three of you in the game, and you didn't talk to passers-by on the first day. This led directly to your isolation the next day. The best way to do this is to talk to strangers in groups on the first day...... The content is not important, the point is to 'form cliques' to divide them and make them suspicious of each other. ”
Longjing tea, which has quickly mastered the rules, quickly teaches delicious wind goose.
It's a pity that only Longjing Tea started the live broadcast, otherwise Longjing Tea felt that he could even operate on the third line and directly control them to complete the game.
However, considering that only the delicious wind goose can see their words, it may be difficult for them to have a chance to communicate...... Even though Long Jingcha had guessed all the rules and tactics, he still couldn't guarantee victory.
But the eyes of the delicious wind goose have been determined.
He already understood.
He knew what he was doing wrong......
– and try to make amends.
Soon, it was the turn of the delicious wind goose to speak.
Dove's previous remarks had only temporarily muddied the waters. But if he can't make any reversible statements, the final answer is still that the three of his own side were thrown.
He was silent for a moment.
Slowly replied:
"—I'm not a civilian.
"In the first round, I claimed that I was a civilian in order to protect the civilians on the field from being killed.
"And who I really am...... It's an idol wizard. ”
After the delicious wind goose said this, he said calmly: "If you want to vote for me now, you can do it, but that is meaningless." There is no need for those who are behind to speak, because the killer has now won. If you don't believe me, let me analyze it-"
He could almost have predicted the other people's look of bewilderment.
"If I jump out this turn, then I'm going to use my skills tonight, and if I can't defend, I'll be killed immediately; And if I don't jump out for the time being, then I will inevitably be voted out tomorrow.
"So for me, as long as I don't jump out, I'm going to die. That's why I exposed my identity.
"The only condition for me to survive is that you choose not to vote for me for the time being, and I will kill people and switch sides as soon as night falls. So even if I 'die' temporarily, as long as my side wins, I don't have to die.
"Why do I say the killer has won?
"The conditions are simple, as long as the person who killed me tonight is not the same as the murderer yesterday...... In that case, on the third day, two people will have reached the victory condition of 'killing two people'. And the good guy can only choose to vote for the one I highlighted.
"Then even if the number of murderers does not increase, there will certainly be a victor who will make it into the fourth day alive. Considering this, the Villain's win rate is already greater than 50% - so if you want to switch sides in time, you can only make a move and get the head the next night.
"Even on the craziest third night, we were able to stay defensive and win. As long as no two people kill one person at the same time, as long as the 'victor' successfully hides his identity, it is a condition for victory—at that time, half of them have killed, and the skills of the edict wizard and the prophetic wizard are no longer valid, because what they want to do is no longer to protect themselves, but to hide the 'victor'. ”
The delicious wind goose speaks demonic inferences in a calm voice and in an orderly manner.
No doubt.
- He's.
Delicious Wind Goose doesn't know if the person who is eliminated from the game will die immediately or after the final settlement; Because "at least one person will survive" is a condition for them to clear the dungeon as a player, and the condition for others is not necessarily this.
He's just taking a gamble.
If you sit still, you will die.
But if the situation is smoothly muddy, then the result is not certain.
"What if the victor is killed by mistake on the third night? It's very simple, as long as everyone kills on the third night. If the person who gets the head in the second day chooses to defend, there is also a possibility that he will be attacked by multiple people at the same time and die on the third day.
“…… In this way, the win rate of defense and offense is the same on the third day. ”
- Of course, this is also.
There is no doubt that if Delicious Wind Goose is indeed a prophetic wizard, then killing people on the second day and defending on the third day is the most likely strategy to win.
But hear this...... Who cares about such details?
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