Volume 1: Theory Chapter 9: Turn Left When You Go Out, You Can't Turn 2

The vast majority of provincial-level administrative units in China have only three professional teams at most, and more often than not, a provincial-level unit has a team, and some provincial-level units do not even have a professional team, so in China, there is only one professional team in Henan Province, a population of 100 million, Sichuan Province, a population of more than 80 million, and only one professional team in Sichuan, Hubei, Hunan and Anhui, with a population of more than 60 million, and only one team in Zhejiang Province, with a population of more than 50 million, and Shandong Province, with a population of more than 90 million. There are only two teams.

On average, China has only one professional team for every 30 million people, while England, Spain and Argentina, they have one professional team for every 60-700,000 people.

Go out and turn left, there is no way to turn, this is the biggest helplessness of China's football-talented teenagers, so many people in China, so many teenagers, so many people with football talent, so many people who can play professional football, but the final demand for professional players is only about 1400 (this is still the data that the author said more), so, who will go up and play? How to select talents? What criteria are used to select talents? Where do the young football prodigies and their parents go from here, and how do they deal with them?

The proportion of China's football talent population is exactly the same as that of the world's top ten football powers, which leads to the big problem of who will play in China's professional football - how to choose talents? Who is suitable to play? These two issues have generated game thinking and consequent game economic behavior for all participants in the Chinese football circle.

In Argentine football, it is the club and the coaching staff who tie up the talented teenagers, although the Argentine society is full of more negative factors than China, but in terms of football alone, the Argentine club and the coaching staff want to tie up the talented teenagers, which is not to say how high the quality of the Argentine club and coaching staff is, this is the result of the mutual game between all aspects of the Argentine football market.

For example, Argentina suddenly has an eight- or nine-year-old genius boy, whose football talent is comparable to Messi and Maradona, then, the major football giants in Argentine football must take active action to rob this talented teenager, because, if you Boca Juniors don't rob it at all, people are snatched away by River Plate, in Argentine football, you Boca Juniors will become everyone's laughing stock, where are the faces of your Boca Juniors managers? And if neither Boca nor River Plate found this talented teenager, who was robbed by San Lorenzo or Independiente, then where did Boca and River Plate managers put their faces?

The demand for professional players in Argentine football is 2300, the supply is 2200, young people with a little football talent have the opportunity to enter professional football, out of talented teenagers, you Boca, River Plate, San Lorenzo and Independiente and other teams do not want, there are a lot of other teams waiting to be, in this case, in the Argentine football market, players occupy the initiative, clubs and coaching staff must have players, if a team misses the talented teenager again and again, then, in the long run, Do talented teenagers still dare to believe in your team? Is there any future for your team?

In Chinese football, it is the talented teenagers who tie up the club and the coaching staff, and they may not be able to tie the knot, there are so many Chinese, so many suitable for football, but the demand for professional teams and professional players is so small, for China's professional teams, even related households can not be arranged, let alone others!

Here, the author also wants to talk about the matter of related households, when it comes to related households, many people will feel 'gnashing of teeth and deep hatred', thinking that rich and powerful families with relationship resources have crowded out the educational resources of ordinary families - including educational resources in football. In fact, we don't have to be too disgusted by the phenomenon of related households, because to a certain extent, the phenomenon of related households is a major motivation to stimulate parents to work hard, and what parents don't want their children to win at the starting line?

Relationship households, in all walks of life, are the group of people who have the best chance to take the lead, and this phenomenon should actually be 'appropriately encouraged' and 'reasonable', because this can stimulate the vast majority of parents to be more motivated to work hard.

Taking football as an example, many people criticize that the resources of Chinese football are squeezed out by related households, which is true, but the phenomenon of related households is not the key reason for various tragedies in Chinese football. Make the best use of its talents', China's football market should be able to provide about 70,000 professional players demand, of which, the relationship can account for almost 3,500, but - however, the Chinese football market needs about 1,400 professional player demand, because the relationship is the easiest in any industry to take the lead in the first group of people, so, in the Chinese football market, there will be 'even related households can not be arranged' This phenomenon, which will further discourage the enthusiasm of ordinary children to enter the football market.

It is not that the level of the relationship is necessarily very low, there are many second-generation and rich children in European and South American football, all of whom are well-known stars, of course, the relationship also needs to be polished and cultivated, and it needs to compete with the children of the common people, but there is a phenomenon in the Chinese football market that 'even the relationship cannot be arranged', therefore, once the relationship enters the Chinese professional football arena, they have no motivation to work hard to improve themselves, because their competitors are basically related households.

In short, instead of denouncing the phenomenon of related households, we should increase the demand for employees in an industry, and strive to achieve a group of statistically almost perfect. Make the best use of things and do what people can', a society should allow related households to win at the starting line, but it should also allow the children of ordinary people to have the opportunity to participate in the competition, and the related households can win at the starting line, but whether they can win all the way to the sprint line, but also rely on the efforts of the related households themselves to defeat the competitors chasing behind them, so that the related households and the entire industry can get common progress.

Moving on to the question just discussed, when the demander of an industry is qualified to pick and choose, then the demander of the industry will become extremely good about itself - 'Anyway, our industry is like this, you love to come, you don't come to pull down, if you don't come, I don't worry about finding a replacement.' Even if you go to another family, other families are in the same situation as me, and other families can't even arrange for related households, how can they have time to consider you? ’

As for saying that Chinese football is getting more and more degenerate, what should we do? What if there are fewer and fewer talents?

These problems are not within the scope of consideration of the club, these problems do not affect the survival of the club, and reputation, when the supply of an industry is far greater than the demand, the demand side can go its own way, and the collective does not put talent training in the first place, and then you still have no way to take the demand side, because, in this market behavior, the demand side firmly occupies the initiative, and the supply side is compared with the demand side, there is no bargaining qualification.

Let's take a look at the formula I invented 'the difficulty coefficient for a country's football-talented teenagers to become professional footballers':

n=qs(g/x)

In this formula, Q (the coefficient of people's love for football), S (the overall strength of the country) and G (how many people in the society are suitable for professional football), these three indicators are all numerators, and only X (the demand for professional players) is the denominator.

In the nearly 30-year history of the development of Chinese football, the Chinese Football Association, and even all the links related to football in China, are sparing no effort to increase the value of the three numerators, but they do not care about the value of the denominator.

Therefore, in the past 30 years, the Chinese Football Association and all the links related to football in China, they are not not not working hard, nor are they not serious and irresponsible, it is precisely because they work hard enough, are serious enough, and are responsible enough that Chinese football has become more and more degenerate, of course, they are working hard enough, serious enough, and responsible enough on the wrong road.